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10/7 Red Sox @ Rays ALDS Game 3 Thread
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Post by Guidas on Oct 8, 2013 9:44:31 GMT -5
I guarantee Hellickson will shut them down tonight. They may win, but book that. Just to make sure, you're saying this knowing that Hellickson has been awful since July 31, right? 11 g, 10 starts, 45.1 ip, 61 h, 39 R (36 ER), 19 BB, 32 K, .326/.392/.513 slash against This was why it was so stunning that they named him the 4th starter over Archer. Agree that it's kind of nuts they aren't going with Archer, but he'll be right there if they need him. However, despite those second half numbers, Hellickson has been more BBIP unlucky this year than his past two, and his xFIP is actually at the lowest it's been since his rookie season. That, and the Sox have Peavy going, who has looked extremely hittable (and is walking more batters) since he went back to pitching games from his "old arm slot" on Aug 20. In fact if you're going to use a small sample like "the second half" then Peavy's Sept was even more dreadful than Hellickson's Sept, at a time when both were pitching in games of heightened consequence and against presumably diluted September rosters.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 8, 2013 9:55:17 GMT -5
Oh god so much paranoia. Guess what I hope there is a game 5 just to see what happens. I believe in this team they can come through. Boogeyman Price has been struggling lately and if all he has is a fast ball and change up I expect the sox to do well against him.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 8, 2013 10:03:50 GMT -5
Oh god so much paranoia. Guess what I hope there is a game 5 just to see what happens. I believe in this team they can come through. Boogeyman Price has been struggling lately and if all he has is a fast ball and change up I expect the sox to do well against him. Come on now, it's not paranoia. It's angst, worry, anxiety, revisionist second-guessing outrage, and pre-emptive agony. After all, we're Red Sox fans.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 8, 2013 10:06:48 GMT -5
Oh god so much paranoia. Guess what I hope there is a game 5 just to see what happens. I believe in this team they can come through. Boogeyman Price has been struggling lately and if all he has is a fast ball and change up I expect the sox to do well against him. If by lately you mean his last start, sure, but he was pretty strong down the stretch, including the complete game a week ago in Texas to knock out the Rangers. I don't think the Red Sox are helpless against him, but they're certainly better off if they can finish things off against Hellickson tonight.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 8, 2013 10:24:04 GMT -5
I saw the Texas game and was hardly impressed, Texas shot themselves in the foot multiple times.
Obviously I want the Red Sox to win no matter what but I just don't think they can't beat Price again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 10:33:06 GMT -5
Average GmLI (Leverage Index when entering game) of Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow so far: 1.41. Of Morales, Workman, and Dempster: 1.82. And that includes a 0.00 for Dempster. So wait, are you trying to say these stats are useful, or posting them as a curiosity? You're talking about a three-game sample, and Morales and Workman have only pitched once each, that only in the game they absolutely had to pitch in. I mean, if you have specific issues with the usages, fine, point those out, but don't point to leverage index when the sample size makes it completely useless. First of all, LI for relievers is not a performance stat. It is a managerial decision stat, and even a one-game sample is meaningful; it tells you what the manager did in that game. So I was just putting into a simple pair of numbers the plain fact of the colossal bullpen mismanagement last night, and hence, in the series as a whole. Correlating GmLI to pitcher quality is a key marker of managerial success. You're not supposed to be giving higher leverage to lesser pitchers. Morales and Workman didn't have to pitch in that game, and never should have pitched in that game. We all disagreed with lifting Breslow after two batters in a tie game, especially when the hit off him was a seeing eye-single and his numbers against Longoria were good. Tie game, you have three good relievers, you want to get at least an inning from each of them, probably more than that from Breslow to begin with. Even given that lapse, I advocated right here for bringing in Tazawa, who looked filthy, back for the 8th. We have three relievers we can trust, and we have to live and die with them, or we'll burn through them and have to use the guys who can't be trusted. And our two set-up men have neutral or reverse splits, so you don't have to play the match-up game. There's no reason we can't navigate the vast majority of post-season games with Tazawa and Breslow handling the 7th and 8th. The rest of the guys are for blowouts and extra innings. Treating Tazawa and Breslow as equals with Morales, Workman, and Demspter, and playing matchups with the whole gang, as Farrell tried last night, is a recipe for disaster.
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Post by nexus on Oct 8, 2013 10:37:13 GMT -5
Price, for whatever reason, has essentially abandoned his CB the last month. It may explain why Red Sox hitters were aggressively going after his FB early in counts. It may also explain why Price hasn't generated many swings and misses. Either way, I'm confident the Red Sox will prevail whether it's 4 or 5 games. Lester is currently the better pitcher, in my opinion.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 10:38:34 GMT -5
Oh god so much paranoia. Guess what I hope there is a game 5 just to see what happens. I believe in this team they can come through. Boogeyman Price has been struggling lately and if all he has is a fast ball and change up I expect the sox to do well against him. If by lately you mean his last start, sure, but he was pretty strong down the stretch, including the complete game a week ago in Texas to knock out the Rangers. I don't think the Red Sox are helpless against him, but they're certainly better off if they can finish things off against Hellickson tonight. Before Game 1, I presented what I'm pretty sure is an open-and-shut case that Price had merely been BABIP-lucky in his last five starts and unlucky in his previous five (rather than excellent and shaky), and overall not nearly the pitcher he had been previously. That proved to be on the nose. I suspect he's pitching with something that bothers him physically but doesn't risk further injury. Go back to that game thread to get a sense of just how good he is right now. It's not scary in the least, and after 11 starts of mid-3.00 ERA performance (with immensely worse control than when he's at his best), it isn't likely to change.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 8, 2013 10:43:12 GMT -5
BTW, I sure hope that all you folks who said that watching the game had been a waste of time, or a similar sentiment, were just reacting to the painful loss. Because that was a tremendous baseball game, and proof of why the sport is better than just about every other sport combined.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 8, 2013 10:58:07 GMT -5
If by lately you mean his last start, sure, but he was pretty strong down the stretch, including the complete game a week ago in Texas to knock out the Rangers. I don't think the Red Sox are helpless against him, but they're certainly better off if they can finish things off against Hellickson tonight. Before Game 1, I presented what I'm pretty sure is an open-and-shut case that Price had merely been BABIP-lucky in his last five starts and unlucky in his previous five (rather than excellent and shaky), and overall not nearly the pitcher he had been previously. That proved to be on the nose. I suspect he's pitching with something that bothers him physically but doesn't risk further injury. Go back to that game thread to get a sense of just how good he is right now. It's not scary in the least, and after 11 starts of mid-3.00 ERA performance (with immensely worse control than when he's at his best), it isn't likely to change. I really just don't see it. Looking at his last five starts, his K rate was 21.5% in his last five, his BB rate was 3.7% (right at his season number and totally awesome), and his BABIP was .303. I know his LD rate is a little high, but that can be attributed to a couple decisions by the official scorer which is why I hate to use such a small sample to show anything. Plus, his peripherals are actually held down by a thoroughly mediocre start against the Twins where he walked three- matching his season high, and only the second time in the second half he'd walked more than one. I don't know that his performance in his last start proves anything, other than maybe the fact that the Red Sox are really good at hitting.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 8, 2013 11:34:44 GMT -5
No, "momentum" will have no effect on this series people. Like, hypothetically, didn't the Rays have all the "momentum" before the Red Sox destroyed them in games 1 and 2? And didn't the Red Sox have all the "momentum" tonight before they blew it? If the Red Sox do play a game 5, "momentum" will play no role, the game will be decided between David Price and Jon Lester. This Red Sox team isn't going to melt under elimination game pressure, sorry. Does every single event have to be turned into an easy narrative? You have no more idea than I do or anybody if this Red Sox team is going to melt under elimination game pressure or not. Your opinion is they won't. That's fine, hope you're right, and you're certainly entitled to the opinion. I picked the Rays in 5 because of Price pitching twice (not that it did them any good in Game 2, but the likelihood of him pitching two stinkers isn't too good), and the fact that I don't trust the Sox bullpen in a close game, although the irony is I do trust Koji in a close game. Once the Sox tied the game in the 9th I really thought they'd win. Really hope I'm wrong about my opinion of the Rays winning in 5 and I look stupid tomorrow night and I'd gladly admit how wrong I was if the Sox win. Not really though, no. The Red Sox could certainly play poorly because it's baseball and that happens. The bats could go silent, they could make errors, they could pitch poorly...but no, the Rays aren't going to play better because they have momentum, and the Red Sox aren't going to play poorly because they lost momentum. That isn't how it works. You can choose to chalk up the events to momentum shifts, but it really isn't credible. I've already cited the fact that momentum had nothing to do with games 1 and 2, and it had nothing to do with game 3. We can talk about the game without resorting to momentum talk. These are professional athletes who have all played in multiple elimination games before, if they play poorly it isn't due to fear of the stage or blowing a 0-2 lead...it's just one single poor performance, no different than blowing games in the regular season. Some fans can attach whatever meaning they want to that, but momentum isn't real. EDIT: Also, while David Price is always scary, he hasn't been good in the playoffs since he was a reliever. He's 0-4 in his 4 career playoff starts. Now I don't put much into that and he could certainly pitch lights out in a potential game 5. It's just to emphasize how baseless it was to claim the Red Sox would need a shutout to beat him. Strange things can happen in one baseball game, and David Price is no exception. The fact that he's lost four straight starts doesn't mean he's "due", and it doesn't mean he's doomed to have another stinker. It just means he isn't superman and he doesn't carry super powers.
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Post by jmei on Oct 8, 2013 11:39:53 GMT -5
BTW, I sure hope that all you folks who said that watching the game had been a waste of time, or a similar sentiment, were just reacting to the painful loss. Because that was a tremendous baseball game, and proof of why the sport is better than just about every other sport combined. Baseball, man. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-lobaton-and-the-nearly-impossible/
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 8, 2013 11:39:56 GMT -5
My biggest issue looking at last night's game was roster construction. Would Farrell have been more likely to pinch hit for Salty against the tough lefty if Lavarnway had been on the roster over one of Dempster or Doubront? It seems to me that those two spots are wasted and having more position players would be pretty sweet in that scenario. I think a lot of the moves Farrell made last night were pretty solid although I would have walked Longoria for sure.
I probably would have pinch hit for Drew, but with McGee's reverse splits it isn't the no-brainer that it is being portrayed as. Pinch running for Ortiz was also the right move. Yes Ortizzles spot came up again, but they wouldn't have pitched to him anyway at least Carp got some swings at hittable pitches, he simply watched one too many. Getting to 2nd with Berry having no-outs was perfect it's not Farrell's fault that Napoli couldn't move the runner. I think the biggest thing that hurt was having the low-contact guys (Naps and Salty) come up in situation where all you needed was a flyball or grounder.
Before the series we all thought that Boston was the stronger team, nothing's changed, other than now it's obvious the stronger team doesn't win every game. Tampa is pretty good, they were bound to win 1. It took them pulling out all the stops just to do that.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 8, 2013 11:55:13 GMT -5
Last night's game was like about a dozen during the season, it was an overall very poor performance, with weird things happening, and otherwise really good players not performing at their best. If the team follows its season pattern, it will bounce back tonight like last night never happened.
Buchholz was not sharp and I don't think he threw a pitch faster than 92 and most were slower than that. He did not have good command, and pitch selection was not always very good. That pitch to Langoria was a terrible choice. But he should have been out of the game by then. It was painful to watch him. It looked like he was in pain.
I don't understand Morales being on this team. He has great stuff, but he is a terrible pitcher. He should never be put into a game when the game still can be won.
Pedroia screwed up a crucial play, but can be forgiven because 99 per cent of the time he does the right thing.
I don't buy using a pinch runner for Ortiz, pinch hitting for Nava, not pinch hitting for Drew, pinch running for Middlebrooks. A really terrible use of players that contributed to the loss of the game.
But I think they will win tonight, maybe even by a big margin.
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Post by okin15 on Oct 8, 2013 14:15:47 GMT -5
I understand leaving Drew in to face the reverse split LHP, but I am surprised that Breslow played in the 7th, because it necessitated using Morales in the 8th. It's one thing if you're going to let Breslow finish the inning, or ask Tazawa to go more than one, but if you're not planning on doing either of those absent a perfect inning, then you have to go with Morales to start the 7th, and have Tazawa already warm. It's possible you don't even let the former pitch if they pinch hit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 8, 2013 14:52:18 GMT -5
My biggest issue looking at last night's game was roster construction. Would Farrell have been more likely to pinch hit for Salty against the tough lefty if Lavarnway had been on the roster over one of Dempster or Doubront? It seems to me that those two spots are wasted and having more position players would be pretty sweet in that scenario. I think a lot of the moves Farrell made last night were pretty solid although I would have walked Longoria for sure. I probably would have pinch hit for Drew, but with McGee's reverse splits it isn't the no-brainer that it is being portrayed as. Pinch running for Ortiz was also the right move. Yes Ortizzles spot came up again, but they wouldn't have pitched to him anyway at least Carp got some swings at hittable pitches, he simply watched one too many. Getting to 2nd with Berry having no-outs was perfect it's not Farrell's fault that Napoli couldn't move the runner. I think the biggest thing that hurt was having the low-contact guys (Naps and Salty) come up in situation where all you needed was a flyball or grounder. Before the series we all thought that Boston was the stronger team, nothing's changed, other than now it's obvious the stronger team doesn't win every game. Tampa is pretty good, they were bound to win 1. It took them pulling out all the stops just to do that. Especially when you've made the decision to go with what is effectively a 24 man roster because you brought Xander Bogaerts but absolutely refuse to use him.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 8, 2013 15:48:03 GMT -5
My biggest issue looking at last night's game was roster construction. Would Farrell have been more likely to pinch hit for Salty against the tough lefty if Lavarnway had been on the roster over one of Dempster or Doubront? It seems to me that those two spots are wasted and having more position players would be pretty sweet in that scenario. I think a lot of the moves Farrell made last night were pretty solid although I would have walked Longoria for sure. I probably would have pinch hit for Drew, but with McGee's reverse splits it isn't the no-brainer that it is being portrayed as. Pinch running for Ortiz was also the right move. Yes Ortizzles spot came up again, but they wouldn't have pitched to him anyway at least Carp got some swings at hittable pitches, he simply watched one too many. Getting to 2nd with Berry having no-outs was perfect it's not Farrell's fault that Napoli couldn't move the runner. I think the biggest thing that hurt was having the low-contact guys (Naps and Salty) come up in situation where all you needed was a flyball or grounder. Before the series we all thought that Boston was the stronger team, nothing's changed, other than now it's obvious the stronger team doesn't win every game. Tampa is pretty good, they were bound to win 1. It took them pulling out all the stops just to do that. Especially when you've made the decision to go with what is effectively a 24 man roster because you brought Xander Bogaerts but absolutely refuse to use him. Agree. I think most of the Farrell bashing is off base, but his use of Xander doesn't make sense. He didn't give him enough ab's in the last month to have him ready for the post season and now he's on the roster and not really ready to help if he is called on.
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