SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2015 Patriots Offseason Thread
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 3, 2015 0:55:40 GMT -5
Mike Reiss listed the Patriots free agents a month ago: espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4775515/2015-new-england-patriots-free-agentsHere's my thoughts: Unrestricted Free AgentsLS Danny Aiken - not a priority to resign. I expect he'll get offered a minimum-level non-guaranteed contract with competition in training camp. DE/LB Akeem Ayers - would love to resign this guy, he shouldn't be too expensive. DT Alan Branch - replacement-level player, not a priority. LB Jonathan Casillas - replacement-level player, not a priority. S Patrick Chung - already extended since that Reiss article was written. G Dan Connolly - would like to keep him but it will come down to money, if another team makes him an offer above the price the Patriots set he'll be gone. K Stephen Gostkowski - this will be tough. He's a top 5 kicker in this league BUT the top 20 are all pretty close together in terms of talent. How much of a premium are you willing to pay? And of course you don't want to end up stuck with one of the bad kickers. TE Steve Maneri - already released AFAIK ... don't expect to see him back. S Devin McCourty - should be a top priority to resign. RB Stevan Ridley - let him get paid elsewhere. If other teams don't want to take the risk that he will be as good as before, there'll be a near-minimum offer waiting for him with the Patriots. RB Shane Vereen - I couldn't believe how cheap the Pats let Woodhead get away. I really hope they offer Vereen at least as much as the Chargers gave Woodhead. LB Chris White - special-teamer, could well be back on a minimum-level deal. Restricted Free AgentsRB Brandon Bolden - I expect the Patriots want him back, but not quite at the level of the qualifying offer. A nice round $1m should get it done. OtherWR Danny Amendola - after his solid contributions in the Super Bowl, I am no longer bitter about the money we've paid him so far. However, he's not getting any younger, so I do expect the Patriots to "offer" him a pay cut. LB Jerod Mayo - he's worth the money when healthy. However, he's had 2 severe injuries the past two seasons, and Collins and Hightower have both exceeded expectations in his absence. I expect a reworked contract at a lower base salary, probably with significant playing time incentives. CB Darelle Revis - Yeah, $20m is just too much. At this point I would be happy to have him on the contract he signed with the Bucs - flat $16m per year, no guarantees. T Nate Solder - had an up and down year, let him prove it playing out his 5th year option. DT Vince Wilfork - I don't expect Big Vince to be in the mood for an more renegotiations. Pay him his bonus, he deserves it. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 3, 2015 9:28:15 GMT -5
Can the Pats afford McCourty? I wouldn't be surprised if he got Byrd money, though he'd be worth it unlike Byrd.
|
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Feb 3, 2015 10:33:48 GMT -5
The betting is that they tag McCorty.
|
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Feb 3, 2015 10:43:19 GMT -5
McCourty.
The Jets and the Bills might offer Revis more, but does he really want to play for a team that has no chance at winning anything, even a playoff spot? The Pats have that chance next year and beyond. I'm sure he really likes the feeling of being a champion, so that might be a consideration. I don't see the Pats taking a 25M cap hit on one guy. So, they might work out a 3 year deal that keeps him here, with lots of guaranteed money and he can be a champion again.
I also think they have to resign Gosh. He's so dependable. Almost automatic. If they narrow the goalposts, like they're talking about, that might be even more important.
Connolly was the MVP of the offensive line, so I hope they reward him.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 3, 2015 14:28:25 GMT -5
Didn't they also re-sign Bolden?
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 3, 2015 14:39:21 GMT -5
Didn't they also re-sign Bolden? They did, I forgot. His cap numbers are $1.035m (2015) and $1.285m (2016) so my prediction was pretty good.  |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 4, 2015 9:11:13 GMT -5
Let Solder walk, he is not worth the money. Try and resign Revis if possible.
Danny Amendola was solid all post season, he is great when healthy. Definitely rework Mayo's contract.
I think McCourty and Ayers are definitely coming back. Idk about Gostkowski, i can see some desperate team overpaying him.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 4, 2015 10:20:08 GMT -5
There had been talk previously about using the Franchise tag on Gostkowski (IIRC)
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 4, 2015 11:23:57 GMT -5
Franchise tag projections: Kicker $4.09m Safety $9.53m Running Back $10.85m Source: www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24749485/nfl-franchise-tags-position-by-position-projected-numbersMcCourty might be worth that much but the Pats' cap situation is not so great that they could swallow it all in 2015 without shuffling things around elsewhere. I'll bet they get a longer-term deal done. Tagging Gostkowski would make him the highest-paid kicker in the NFL by AAV. It wouldn't be a massive overpay but you should be able to get him for less with some guarantees, and there's no reason to think you would regret guaranteeing some of his 2017 salary. No way they pay Vereen $10.85m. Always amazes me how many highly-paid running backs there are. Jamaal Charles money ($7m per) should set the ceiling on Vereen's market. |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 4, 2015 15:28:35 GMT -5
Damn, we may have to let Gostkowski go... McCourty and Revis just too valuable.
Solder probably has got to go too...
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 4, 2015 16:27:28 GMT -5
Damn, we may have to let Gostkowski go... McCourty and Revis just too valuable. Solder probably has got to go too... The thing is, Solder was an excellent left tackle as recently as 2013... |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 4, 2015 20:51:33 GMT -5
Damn, we may have to let Gostkowski go... McCourty and Revis just too valuable. Solder probably has got to go too... The thing is, Solder was an excellent left tackle as recently as 2013... Rather spend the money on someone who is more of a sure thing, like McCourty/Revis. They could always use the top draft pick for a lineman, those guys 1st round O lineman usually have a pretty high floor. Then maybe get another guard later since we will be getting a comp draft pick for Talib too. |
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 4, 2015 22:36:49 GMT -5
They could always use the top draft pick for a lineman, those guys 1st round O lineman usually have a pretty high floor. I think this works for interior O-Linemen. Tackles, though? Look at the 2013 draft. #1 pick Eric Fisher, #2 pick Luke Joeckel. Both of those guys played right tackle their first season and the consensus is they did it pretty poorly. #4 pick Lane Johnson and #11 pick D.J. Fluker? Yeah, they're both still playing on the right side. If you draft a tackle at #32, then you might as well pencil in Marcus Cannon as the starter. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 5, 2015 7:20:04 GMT -5
They could always use the top draft pick for a lineman, those guys 1st round O lineman usually have a pretty high floor. I think this works for interior O-Linemen. Tackles, though? Look at the 2013 draft. #1 pick Eric Fisher, #2 pick Luke Joeckel. Both of those guys played right tackle their first season and the consensus is they did it pretty poorly. #4 pick Lane Johnson and #11 pick D.J. Fluker? Yeah, they're both still playing on the right side. If you draft a tackle at #32, then you might as well pencil in Marcus Cannon as the starter. Lane Johnson is doing excellent and is only on the right because the Eagles have the best LT in the NFL, Jason Peters. |
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 9, 2015 12:58:33 GMT -5
Random thought of the day: if the Dolphins cut Mike Wallace, would you give him, say, 1yr/$5m on the hope that he can be the deep threat he was hyped up to be 2 years ago?
|
|
|
|
Post by xxdamgoodxx on Feb 9, 2015 19:28:51 GMT -5
Random thought of the day: if the Dolphins cut Mike Wallace, would you give him, say, 1yr/$5m on the hope that he can be the deep threat he was hyped up to be 2 years ago? Sure, I would like Wallace on the team, but I think that this is more of a bottom line thing. Bottom line is that the team is 3-5 million (depending on the website you look at) over the cap right now (with Revis's 25 mil and Mayo's 10 mil cap hits as they are) and they have to take care of their own guys. I used to be a believer that the Patriots needed a big-play receiver to give their offense the extra dimension it needed in the playoffs. However, they proved me wrong last Sunday; Brady tore up the best defense in the league playing dink-and-dunk. They pretty much debunked the whole deep threat myth. Granted, the Pats have Gronk and #12, which may be why they can have consistent offensive success without an especially tall receiving corp, but the point stands. In addition, incoming veteran receivers aren't always successful in the Pats system, especially in year one. My guess is it's going to be a pretty boring offseason. |
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 9, 2015 19:38:53 GMT -5
It's true: if we keep Revis there won't be much cap space available, and we won't be making any big splashes. I do think the Pats could add one mid-tier free agent if they wanted to. We don't even know the official cap yet, and there are always ways to free up a bit, e.g. the Pats could easily create $3.5m cap space by converting Gronk's base salary to a signing bonus. Not saying the necessarily should but if the right guy is available for a $4-5m then it's not an insurmountable obstacle.
(I don't necessarily think Wallace is the right guy either. I'm always wondering, is Brady too inaccurate on the long bomb or does he just not have the right receivers for it...)
|
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 9, 2015 22:08:20 GMT -5
Mike Reiss said if we keep McCourty and Revis its a winning offseason and I tend to agree with him there.
Its cold, but cutting Wilfork would save 8 mil on the cap too.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 9, 2015 22:18:46 GMT -5
I wonder if Browner is also in jeopardy. They'll be able to save over the $4M and Butler, Arrington, Ryan and even Dennard are available. If Browner stays, gotta believe Dennard is gone.
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 10, 2015 6:05:05 GMT -5
It's strange, I was feeling better about Dennard a year ago than I feel about Butler now. That guy just fell off a cliff or something.
Cutting Arrington would also save $1.4m cap space immediately...
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,044
|
Post by mobaz on Feb 10, 2015 10:18:09 GMT -5
Arrington has his role, but man is he overpaid considering his amount/level of play. I bet if Logan Ryan had made progress or Dennard hadn't fallen off a cliff he'd be in more danger, but I think depth would start to get very thin without Arrington at "starting" slot corner.
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Feb 10, 2015 10:54:01 GMT -5
Arrington has his role, but man is he overpaid considering his amount/level of play. I bet if Logan Ryan had made progress or Dennard hadn't fallen off a cliff he'd be in more danger, but I think depth would start to get very thin without Arrington at "starting" slot corner. At least in 2014 the coaching staff realized that you can't play Arrington on the outside, only in the slot. He got burned so often playing outside when Talib/Dennard were injured in 2013. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2015 11:26:15 GMT -5
I think Wilfork and Browner are two guys who are at risk. You know Belichick isn't going to be sentimental, and those two guys are getting older, have obvious weaknesses (pass rush and penalties, respectively), and have high cap hits. Mayo's in the same boat, though I suspect he'll be more willing to restructure (a la what Wilfork did last year) than either of those two guys. Arrington's is also a great special teams player, and slot corner has become about as important a role as strong safety or run-stuffing DT. I have a hard time seeing him get cut for just $1.4m in cap room. ADD: Football Outsiders makes the case for cutting Wilfork. |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 10, 2015 23:12:04 GMT -5
Do whatever it takes to bring Revis back in my mind... I don't think we can win another super bowl going back to the days of other QBs just picking our secondary apart.
|
|
|
|
Post by xxdamgoodxx on Feb 12, 2015 18:30:31 GMT -5
I don't see any real chance that Browner is cut. His length, physicality and competitive nature are talked about so much that I think we forget that he is a pretty good cover guy and a rare match up for a corner. I think he's clearly ahead of Arrington/Ryan/Butler/Dennard on the outside and I doubt 4 mil in cap relief is enough to have a net improvement to the team.
|
|
|
