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6/17-6/18 Red Sox @ Braves Series Thread
danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:12:04 GMT -5
totheeights, I am reposting here what I posted in the trade forum earlier today. It was done before the news about Sandoval came out, but that doesn't affect anything I wrote.
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded.
Batting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LH .314 .282 .324 .275 .281 .317 .325 RH .379 .227 .281 .299 .270 .199 .141
He has hit better lefthanded the past two seasons than ever before. He also seems to be hitting lefthanded pitchers better since he stopped batting righthanded, and his batting average has been rising.
His power numbers have been relatively the same for the last four years.
So, the argument that he is decline, at least as a batter, doesn't hold up when subject to statistical scrutiny.
There also is some "fat prejudice" showing up in some poster's arguments. He is heavy, but he has a body type not untypical for people with his heredity, and if you actually watch him you will see that he is quick and nimble for anyone of any size. And weight has little to do with hand-eye coordination or arm strength. He has not been as good a defender this year as in the past but I suspect it has more to do with playing in unfamiliar environments, and more stress than he will admit. Players also go through fielding slumps as well as batting slumps.
It probably would be virtually impossible to replace Sandoval with a player equal to him in the combination of hitting and fielding skills.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2015 18:12:18 GMT -5
Who do you guys think is the worst team This on, 2014 team or 2012? I think that one failure in all aspects of the game: Pitching, hitting, fielding and base running makes it the worst (It's also the most expensive one).
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 18, 2015 18:14:52 GMT -5
Countermove for Shaw is Hembree to the 15-day DL.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2015 18:16:09 GMT -5
David Ortiz: Hitting RHP at an elite level but can't hit vs LHP ----> Declining Fat Pablo: Hitting RHP at a good level but can't LHP ----> He's OK
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:16:31 GMT -5
I don't understand playing De Aza instead of Castillo. For the amount of money Castillo cost, he should be expected to hit righthand pitching. And for what he is being paid, he should be playing. This is a very bizarre season.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 18, 2015 18:22:11 GMT -5
totheeights, I am reposting here what I posted in the trade forum earlier today. It was done before the news about Sandoval came out, but that doesn't affect anything I wrote. The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded. Batting 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LH .314 .282 .324 .275 .281 .317 .325 RH .379 .227 .281 .299 .270 .199 .141 He has hit better lefthanded the past two seasons than ever before. He also seems to be hitting lefthanded pitchers better since he stopped batting righthanded, and his batting average has been rising. His power numbers have been relatively the same for the last four years. So, the argument that he is decline, at least as a batter, doesn't hold up when subject to statistical scrutiny. There also is some "fat prejudice" showing up in some poster's arguments. He is heavy, but he has a body type not untypical for people with his heredity, and if you actually watch him you will see that he is quick and nimble for anyone of any size. And weight has little to do with hand-eye coordination or arm strength. He has not been as good a defender this year as in the past but I suspect it has more to do with playing in unfamiliar environments, and more stress than he will admit. Players also go through fielding slumps as well as batting slumps. It probably would be virtually impossible to replace Sandoval with a player equal to him in the combination of hitting and fielding skills. lol First, you bring up his decline in ability to hit RH as if it is some footnote and not a huge part of the story. One of the main reasons we signed him was to he balance the lineup and to help vs. lefties. Instead we got another guy who is a black hole when a south paw is on the mound. Secondly, yeah, I know it's so hard to find those 2-3 WAR players. Especially if you are willing to pay $19M a year for them. This was too funny. He's fat, out of shape, slow, he's playing piss poor defense, he can't hit from the right anymore (another big reason we signed him was his ability to be a switch hitter). But yeah, you are right about something it would be pretty damn near impossible to find another 3rd basemen like him in one way....there aren't any others out there who are on the very of obesity.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 18, 2015 18:29:09 GMT -5
David Ortiz: Hitting RHP at an elite level but can't hit vs LHP ----> Declining Fat Pablo: Hitting RHP at a good level but can't LHP ----> He's OK That's the funny part, Ortiz can have a significant decline and still be a better hitter than 75% of the league and most of the roster. His hitting ability has been that good over his career. Sandoval...has been a bit above average at the plate for his career. An inability to hit LHP is likely going to put him in line with the average hitting in the league and when you realize he is going to be paid ~$20M a year for 5 more years you are going to want to barf
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Post by jmei on Jun 18, 2015 18:31:12 GMT -5
He was actually signed to balance out a very RHH-centric lineup, which was the main worry all offseason.
Look, I get it, you don't like him because he's fat. If you want to just fall back on lazy stereotypes, that's your prerogative. But that's really the only argument you've got, because a three-win player signed through his age 28-32 seasons gets about what Sandoval got.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 18, 2015 18:37:54 GMT -5
What mainly concerns me about him (and Hanley) is the Defense.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 18:42:00 GMT -5
Also, he hit .199 against RHPs last year. The Sox knew that. So far, he seems to be able to hit LHPs better lefthanded than he was righthanded. Also, he has been hitting pretty well recently.
Am I the only one who isn't bothered by him looking at his phone while sitting on the john? I know there is a rule against it, and he violated it, but this is being made into a hugely bigger deal than it is. And that is especially true in light of him manning up, admitting he was wrong, and saying he won't do it again.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jun 18, 2015 18:44:53 GMT -5
Pablo Sandoval who has a 103 wRC+ and is paid probably half of what Crawford was paid after accounting for inflation is a worse signing than Crawford? How come we aren't jumping all over Hanley? The fans of this team have had it out for Pablo from day 1. Well, lets see: Carl Crawford was a much better player than Sandoval when we signed him. We gave him $20.2M per year. Up until that point he average 4.79 WAR per year (5.3 per if you remove his 2002 season when he first came up and played just 62 games). So when we signed him in his prime, it wasn't reasonable to think he would go from a 5 WAR player to a replacement level player immediately, which is what happened mainly due to injuries. It was a bad deal from the start, as you knew a player like him that relied on speed and athleticism only, would have a steep decline. It just wasn't reasonable to expect it in the first 2 years of his contract. We signed an extremely overweight player to a huge contract worth $19M per for a guy who averaged 2.87 WAR per year (we can bump that up to 3.2 WAR per year if you want to toss out his first year like Crawford). So let's see we gave out similar money (no inflation does not make Carl Crawford control double what we gave Sandoval, inflation would take Crawford's AAV to $22.3M still in the range of Sandoval money) to a worse player at the same age, who is signficiantly overweight and can absolutely be expected to decline quickly because he refuses to lose weight. Combine that with the fact that the one good thing about Sandoval was supposed to be his above average defense, and instead he has been absolutely atrocious at 3rd this year. I don't even want to touch that 103 WRc+ number you are tossing out at me, like that is some sort of saving grace or something I'm supposed to celebrate. Oh our $20M a year 3rd baseman who doesn't miss a meal is hitting league average numbers. Yay! There are plenty of people jumping all over Hanley Ramirez, but for the most part, he has been exactly what was expected out of him, a guy who is a pretty good hitter who is awful in the field. We got what we bargained for, he's going to be a money sink, but not nearly are horrific as Sandoval will be. 20 million dollars in 2015 is MUCH different than 22 million dollars in 2011. Also 5 years for a 28 year old vs 7 years for a 30 something year old. The contracts are nowhere near similar. Also Hanley has underperformed FAR more than Sandoval has. People just bad it out for him from the start
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2015 18:47:56 GMT -5
He was actually signed to balance out a very RHH-centric lineup, which was the main worry all offseason. Look, I get it, you don't like him because he's fat. If you want to just fall back on lazy stereotypes, that's your prerogative. But that's really the only argument you've got, because a three-win player signed through his age 28-32 seasons gets about what Sandoval got. Nope. There's also his hilarious plate discipline numbers and the way players with that skillset age: If you add his eroding fielding abilities (Which were not elite to begin with) and we have a bust in our hands...A fat bust!
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 18, 2015 18:57:13 GMT -5
He was actually signed to balance out a very RHH-centric lineup, which was the main worry all offseason. Look, I get it, you don't like him because he's fat. If you want to just fall back on lazy stereotypes, that's your prerogative. But that's really the only argument you've got, because a three-win player signed through his age 28-32 seasons gets about what Sandoval got. Well, of course I don't like the fact that our $20M dollar 3B can't put in the work to not be on the verge of obesity. And I know I'm not the only one. But more importantly, let's actually take a look at money and players who signed for similar amounts to Sandoval. Couple things we will look at, age when signed contract, fWAR since 2010, contract status. Pablo Sandoval, 29, 13.7, 5/$95M + 1 option Nelson Cruz, 34, 14.2, 4/$57M Jason Kipnis, 27, 13.6, 6/$52M Erick Aybar, 29, 14.6, 4/$35M Edwin Encarnacion, 30, 14.7, 3/$29M + 1 option Carl Crawford, 29, 13.4, 7/$142 Angel Pagan, 31, 14.0, 4/$40M Elvis Andrus, 26, 13.5, 8/$120M Miguel Montero, 29, 12.5, 5/$60M Nick Swisher, 32, 11.7, 4/$56M Martin Prado, 29, 15.7, 4/$40M Matt Carpenter, 28, 14.4, 6/$52M + 1 option It's pretty easy to pick out the massive overpays.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 18, 2015 19:01:13 GMT -5
Am I the only one who isn't bothered by him looking at his phone while sitting on the john? Probably. Phone or no phone, take a dump on your own time, not during the game.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 18, 2015 19:03:29 GMT -5
Well, lets see: Carl Crawford was a much better player than Sandoval when we signed him. We gave him $20.2M per year. Up until that point he average 4.79 WAR per year (5.3 per if you remove his 2002 season when he first came up and played just 62 games). So when we signed him in his prime, it wasn't reasonable to think he would go from a 5 WAR player to a replacement level player immediately, which is what happened mainly due to injuries. It was a bad deal from the start, as you knew a player like him that relied on speed and athleticism only, would have a steep decline. It just wasn't reasonable to expect it in the first 2 years of his contract. We signed an extremely overweight player to a huge contract worth $19M per for a guy who averaged 2.87 WAR per year (we can bump that up to 3.2 WAR per year if you want to toss out his first year like Crawford). So let's see we gave out similar money (no inflation does not make Carl Crawford control double what we gave Sandoval, inflation would take Crawford's AAV to $22.3M still in the range of Sandoval money) to a worse player at the same age, who is signficiantly overweight and can absolutely be expected to decline quickly because he refuses to lose weight. Combine that with the fact that the one good thing about Sandoval was supposed to be his above average defense, and instead he has been absolutely atrocious at 3rd this year. I don't even want to touch that 103 WRc+ number you are tossing out at me, like that is some sort of saving grace or something I'm supposed to celebrate. Oh our $20M a year 3rd baseman who doesn't miss a meal is hitting league average numbers. Yay! There are plenty of people jumping all over Hanley Ramirez, but for the most part, he has been exactly what was expected out of him, a guy who is a pretty good hitter who is awful in the field. We got what we bargained for, he's going to be a money sink, but not nearly are horrific as Sandoval will be. 20 million dollars in 2015 is MUCH different than 22 million dollars in 2011. Also 5 years for a 28 year old vs 7 years for a 30 something year old. The contracts are nowhere near similar. Also Hanley has underperformed FAR more than Sandoval has. People just bad it out for him from the start I calculated that for you in the post you quoted. $20.2M (what we actually gave Crawford in 2011) is just $22.3M in 2015. Hardly a huge difference between what he and Sandoval got. But probably the right amount of difference given how much better a player Crawford was before he signed with us. Sandoval's deal is pretty likely to be a 6 year deal with his vesting option. Also, like I said Crawford was 29 when he signed. Sandoval is almost exactly 1 year younger than Crawford was when he signed. But the weight difference pretty much does away with all of that difference. As referenced by the charts radiohix posted.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 18, 2015 19:03:36 GMT -5
... But that's really the only argument you've got, because a three-win player signed through his age 28-32 seasons gets about what Sandoval got. Maybe you'll be kind enough to cite a few of those three win players making panda dough for us? And, what statistical evidence is there to support the idea that the team was buying a three win player?
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 18, 2015 19:04:11 GMT -5
Travis Shaw is 1 for 1 in fielding opportunities at 3rd base! Hype!
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Post by arzjake on Jun 18, 2015 19:04:54 GMT -5
I don't understand playing De Aza instead of Castillo. For the amount of money Castillo cost, he should be expected to hit righthand pitching. And for what he is being paid, he should be playing. This is a very bizarre season. Im with you brother. Makes zero sense. DArza is 31. Not like there is another prospect needing AB's.. This has to be on Farrell and if it is another nail in the coffin. Much like the other night Betts AB 7 for last 10, runners first second you bunt with 8th hitter on deck..
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 18, 2015 19:06:08 GMT -5
Am I the only one who isn't bothered by him looking at his phone while sitting on the john? Probably. Phone or no phone, take a dump on your own time, not during the game. Eh. With the way he's fielded the season, I don't want him at the hot corner feeling all backed up. Had he just glanced at his phone, I wouldn't care much at all. It's the stupidity of liking a photo on a social media platform where thousands of fans follow you that baffles me.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 18, 2015 19:06:17 GMT -5
Well, lets see: Carl Crawford was a much better player than Sandoval when we signed him. We gave him $20.2M per year. Up until that point he average 4.79 WAR per year (5.3 per if you remove his 2002 season when he first came up and played just 62 games). So when we signed him in his prime, it wasn't reasonable to think he would go from a 5 WAR player to a replacement level player immediately, which is what happened mainly due to injuries. It was a bad deal from the start, as you knew a player like him that relied on speed and athleticism only, would have a steep decline. It just wasn't reasonable to expect it in the first 2 years of his contract. We signed an extremely overweight player to a huge contract worth $19M per for a guy who averaged 2.87 WAR per year (we can bump that up to 3.2 WAR per year if you want to toss out his first year like Crawford). So let's see we gave out similar money (no inflation does not make Carl Crawford control double what we gave Sandoval, inflation would take Crawford's AAV to $22.3M still in the range of Sandoval money) to a worse player at the same age, who is signficiantly overweight and can absolutely be expected to decline quickly because he refuses to lose weight. Combine that with the fact that the one good thing about Sandoval was supposed to be his above average defense, and instead he has been absolutely atrocious at 3rd this year. I don't even want to touch that 103 WRc+ number you are tossing out at me, like that is some sort of saving grace or something I'm supposed to celebrate. Oh our $20M a year 3rd baseman who doesn't miss a meal is hitting league average numbers. Yay! There are plenty of people jumping all over Hanley Ramirez, but for the most part, he has been exactly what was expected out of him, a guy who is a pretty good hitter who is awful in the field. We got what we bargained for, he's going to be a money sink, but not nearly are horrific as Sandoval will be. 20 million dollars in 2015 is MUCH different than 22 million dollars in 2011. Also 5 years for a 28 year old vs 7 years for a 30 something year old. The contracts are nowhere near similar. Also Hanley has underperformed FAR more than Sandoval has. People just bad it out for him from the start Since you're so into details, the AAV of Pablo's contract is 19m. The AAV of Crawford's was 20.3. A difference of 1.3m out of a 20.3m per year contract. Or roughly, the difference is 6.5 percent. We're talking 2011 compared to 2015. Not 1971 compared to 2015. Good grief. There's minimal difference in the AAV. The two extra years is big, but the Sox got out of that. Because, Carl wasn't a fat slob. Nobody is taking Sandoval's contract. The MLB luxury threshold was 178m in 2011, and now it's a robust 189m.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 18, 2015 19:09:15 GMT -5
Pretty SSS of fat non 1B guys who are decently athletic. Pablo is pretty unique in that sense and his contact rates so although his age curve likely won't be great, nothing is set in stone. Getting some more power out of his weight would help a lot. He's fallen off in that department over the years.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 18, 2015 19:13:34 GMT -5
I think Panda's inability to hit LHP from the right side, which didn't just start this year, points out the poor construction of this roster. The super-utility guy is the Brock star and he hits from the left side, so there's no platoon potential there.
I actually think the RS can make a pretty significant improvement next season through the continued development of the young guys, some ERA regression(team FIP is a half-run lower than the ERA) and the acquisition of some solid role players.
I'd like to see an outfield of Mookie, JBJ and Rusney. That would require the acquisition of a 4th OFer can do some Gomesing to get JBJ out of the lineup against LHP. Add a versatile RHH IF to get Panda out of there against LHP and you've solved another problem. Neither of these pieces should be expensive.
Then use some prospect depth to get a 2-3 WAR 1B and you have a team that would have a shot at wining the 88 or so games it will probably take to win this division.
Danr - I'm bugged by Panda's behavior. But I have to admit it's probably due to the crap play of this team (If we had learned that one of the Idiots was viewing babes while sitting on the crapper during a 2004 PO game, we all would have thought it was hilarious) and my cumulative frustration with the unprofessional behavior on this team.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 18, 2015 19:17:47 GMT -5
If the Sox are facing Shelby Miller, why didn't they call up JBJ to go 0-3 against him?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 18, 2015 19:20:02 GMT -5
If the Sox are facing Shelby Miller, why didn't they call up JBJ to go 0-3 against him? Are you crazy? Why would they give Bradley plate appearances against a righty who doesn't throw a knuckleball?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 18, 2015 19:24:34 GMT -5
If the Sox are facing Shelby Miller, why didn't they call up JBJ to go 0-3 against him? Are you crazy? Why would they give Bradley plate appearances against a righty who doesn't throw a knuckleball? I'm guessing BC is worried the Rebs fire on Fort Sumter if we recall JBJ(Played at S Carolina) to help defeat a southern team.
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