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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 11, 2016 9:05:28 GMT -5
The 46.9% number is what I was referring to. I do think either Brooklyn loses out or the Suns win tonight. The Kings are resting Cousins tonight.
I do know the consensus is Ingram and Simmons are the top two but what is the consensus on 3, 4 and 5? I don't follow college basketball much.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 11, 2016 9:13:01 GMT -5
The 46.9% number is what I was referring to. I do think either Brooklyn loses out or the Suns win tonight. The Kings are resting Cousins tonight. I do know the consensus is Ingram and Simmons are the top two but what is the consensus on 3, 4 and 5? I don't follow college basketball much. The next three IMO are Dunn, Hield, and Bender, but there isn't really a consensus after 2. Some people like Brown, but he is extremely raw. Bender could establish himself as the clear #3, or even jump into the mix with the top two, but he's just a huge unknown. He's only 18 and didn't play a ton this year overseas. I personally really like Dunn and Hield, but a lot of people knock them because they are older. Murray is a guy that some people have top 5. He could be a Jason Terry type. He's younger than Dunn or Hield, so you can dream on him. |
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Post by texs31 on Apr 11, 2016 9:13:06 GMT -5
Bender (PF from Bosnia) is, at this time, locked in by most as #3. After that it's a bit more muddled with Jamal Murray, Jaylen Brown, Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield all getting into the Top 5 in various lists.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 11, 2016 9:52:07 GMT -5
Thanks... So basically we want a top 2 pick badly, but the difference between 3 and 5 isn't huge.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 11, 2016 14:21:20 GMT -5
You guys are leaving out Henry Ellenson who Chad Ford has going 5th in new mock. Ford's new mock has Celtics taking Jamal Murray, Deyonta Davis and Thon Maker.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 11, 2016 14:29:37 GMT -5
Wasn't going on Mocks but Rankings (where Ford has Ellenson 6th). Other rankings (DX, CBS, etc) have Ellensen in the back end of the top 10.
That's not to say he or others couldn't jump into the mix in the top 5, but he's not a "consensus top 5 rated player" (at least by the internet lists that I tend to go to) which was the question I was trying to answer.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Apr 11, 2016 18:32:58 GMT -5
Yeah, Ellenson could jump into the top five depending on how things play out, but he's not in the same tier as the other guys mentioned in my opinion.
Now that second tier is pretty mediocre, so the situation is ripe for a team to reach on a guy like Ellenson.
The guy I would love to land with the Dallas pick is Davis. He's going to be one of the better players to come out of this draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 11, 2016 23:43:51 GMT -5
I don't think there is a consensus top 5 in this draft. I see a clear cut top 2, most agree Bender is #3 after that it's anyones guess. If you look at Ford and Pelton ESPN, draft express and nbadraft.net they can't agree on a top 5.
You got Hield, Murray, Dunn and Ellenson for me in that next group. Combine will be huge for Hield and Ellenson, as both could drop out of this group with poor showings. Hield scares me to death, 9/10 of players like him get drafted too high. Pelton has Hield #11 on his list predicting wins above replacement level in NBA. Now I really think some sites are sleeping on Ellenson. If Ford is right about him being a good athlete, he's got to be in the top 5 or 6 mix. He's very skilled in the Kevin Love type of way. Now nbadraft.net calls him a very below average athlete. Looking at stats like rebonds, steals and blocks I think Ford is right, but the combine will make one of them look very foolish.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 9:53:50 GMT -5
I don't understand the Jason Terry comparison with Murray.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 13:38:24 GMT -5
I don't understand the Jason Terry comparison with Murray. I can see it. Both seen as SG that can play PG. Both are good shooters that can get to rim. I could see Murray being a slightly better version of Terry. Maybe a better shooter and at getting to rim and finishing. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 12, 2016 17:05:20 GMT -5
If he's a better version of Terry then you draft him. Terry was very good.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 12, 2016 22:48:39 GMT -5
I think Murray is a very safe pick and wouldn't mind seeing him on Celtics.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 13, 2016 12:58:29 GMT -5
For what it's worth, CSN Chicago's Vernon Goodwill reported that Boston and Chicago WERE talking about a Butler trade but Boston backed out when Chicago insisted on Jae Crowder.
Piecing together (ie overthinking) the information that was reported then and now, you wonder if it was the BRK and DAL picks (as asserted by Steve Bulpett back in March) and some combination of players NOT including Jae Crowder (Smart, perhaps?).
Chicago and Boston may have been close but then Chicago asked for Crowder (still wanting to make a playoff push - as per Ainge's comments - and wanting the player more ready to contribute/replace Butler's contributions).
Speculation on top of reports is ALWAYS useful (wait, what?) but that's my take. Danny suggested that the trade he was referring to (of course, he didn't necessarily say it was Butler) COULD be revisited in the offseason but you wonder:
1. Was Chicago interested bc the BRK pick had a chance to be #1? In other words, would they still make the deal after the lottery results are in and Boston (presumably) is offering #4 or #5? Conversely, would Boston offer #1 or #2 in the package if it won the lottery.
2. Would Chicago still insist on Crowder in the offseason? Players with future upside (Smart) have more (perceived) value in the offseason when teams aren't trying to compete for a final playoff spot.
Unrelated but Sacramento appears to be firing Karl today. Would think that suggests they'll give Cousins a shot to work with another head coach. Doubt he's available this offseason.
Anyway . . . carry on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 14:43:42 GMT -5
Interesting. For me I wouldn't trade Simmons plus more picks and players for Butler, don't think I would trade Ingram either but maybe. If we get a pick in 3-6 range then I would depending on other players Bulls want. Trading Crowder, 2 first round picks and Smart is a ton to give up even for a player like Butler. Heck Crowder is going to be one of the best values in NBA over next 4 years with that contract, dealing him will be hard. I would trade Smart, Nets pick outside top 3, and Dallas pick for Butler though.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 13, 2016 14:53:41 GMT -5
My interpretation was that it may have been Smart but Chicago asked for Crowder (not in addition to but instead of Smart).
I would NOT trade both.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 13, 2016 23:45:25 GMT -5
Let's hope the Nets have the lucky charm in the lottery this year. If you know what I mean.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 14, 2016 0:21:28 GMT -5
Clutch wins by Phoenix in the last few weeks to let the Nets out-tank them though.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 14, 2016 6:10:11 GMT -5
Nets lost 10 straight to end the season. Clutch.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 14, 2016 7:56:05 GMT -5
I like Butler as a player but I'd be cautious about giving up too much for him. Crowder is one of the best values in the league for the next 4 years AND he fits perfectly into this system. However, he's not one of those top players and Butler could be. It's a really tough call on what i would give up for Butler but hopefully they can do it without Crowder and a top 2 pick.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 14, 2016 7:59:53 GMT -5
Evan Turner and what they do with him this offseason is going to be very interesting. I love his game on this team and I love his attitude. He's gone from a reputation as a selfish player to one who only cares about the team winning. I think he's a great bench player. Match up problems and gives a coach like Stevens a lot of options which is a good thing. He can exploit second units. That being said if a team offers him crazy money the Celtics need to walk away. What is the right contract to keep Turner here for the team? I think it's possible he takes less to be here as he's seen the ugly and lived a negative situation and now is in a good one and is thriving.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,596
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Post by nomar on Apr 14, 2016 8:13:12 GMT -5
We have these odds:
15.6% for the 1st pick
15.7% for the 2nd pick
15.6% for the 3rd pick
22.6% for the 4th pick
26.5% for the 5th pick
4.0% for the 6th pick
That's 31.3% we're in the top 2 and 46.9% chance we're in the top 3.
If 3rd I trade or pick between Murray and Hield. Brown is a project that may never learn how to shoot but also has bug upside.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 14, 2016 8:22:56 GMT -5
Say no to Brown... He's a project who can't shoot and will sit on the bench. Even if they ended up worst case at 6 and they kept it I wouldn't want Brown. He's off my board this high.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,596
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Post by nomar on Apr 14, 2016 8:25:10 GMT -5
I think the NBA will want lakers Celtics to be 1 and 2. The NBA lottery is so sketchy and I think they'll punish the 6ers by putting them 3rd or 4th to discourage tanking.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 14, 2016 11:10:19 GMT -5
What about Bender or Dunn?
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Post by ramireja on Apr 14, 2016 11:50:01 GMT -5
Did the Mavs pick end up at #17?
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