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2021 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 19, 2021 13:08:43 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised if a team took Noah song in the Rule 5 draft after not pitching for years. I also feel it'd be bad optics to take him and basically throw him to the wolves. He's going to need development time.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 22, 2021 8:02:05 GMT -5
My top 10 (very important)
Mayer Yorke Casas Duran Bello Downs Houck Jimenez Seabold Jordan
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2021 8:12:47 GMT -5
I'd be very surprised if a team took Noah song in the Rule 5 draft after not pitching for years. I also feel it'd be bad optics to take him and basically throw him to the wolves. He's going to need development time. Yeah, if Song doesn't play next year it means it's unlikely he's coming back to baseball, because it'll mean he either didn't file for a waiver after flight school, indicating he's at least fulfilling his 5 years or even has decided not to play baseball, or that his waiver request was denied (very unlikely). In either case, nobody is taking him in Rule 5.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 12:17:53 GMT -5
I just saw the new rankings and I have to say 'Bravo' I think you guys nailed it pretty much across the board. Seemed to be some more aggresive changes than normal, but changes were warranted with performances by Yorke and Wilk (does he have a nickname?) among others.
I was surprised about one thing though: why did Song drop? Was this because he's not coming back to baseball this season as some were expecting/hoping for? Was there a significant enough gap between Mata and Song that pushed 3 players in-between them? Is there doubt he will ever come back? Is this a re-adjustment from earlier overranking?
I'd like to hear your guys' insights as in my mind Mata/Song were in a similar boat (despite different circumstances for their time missed).
Edit: I just noticed he was dropped from a 4.5 to a 4, which would indicate a gap between Mata & Song - what was the reason for the grade reduction?
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 2, 2021 12:34:56 GMT -5
Yorke finally at his rightful place in the Top 3, you could argue than any of Mayer, Casas or Yorke is the number 1 prospect imo. I'll take Crawford over Winckowski. Let's put it this way: If you have just one player to protect in the rule 5 draft who would you chose between Crawford and Winckowski?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 2, 2021 12:47:37 GMT -5
That's some pretty big helium for Bleis. I wonder what it's based on? Contacts in the organization? I assume no one from the site has been down to see any DSL games.
How is it possible for Jordan to have a lower grade and a lower range than Mata but be ranked higher? Greater likelihood of hitting his ceiling I guess?
Somehow Lugo just keeps hanging around in the top 20 without anyone ever discussing him with any interest whatsoever.
On Downs: are there precedents for someone doing so poorly at his age and then recovering? I know there's some thinking of granting a covid mulligan for this season, but it's notable that none of the other top guys have seemed to need that mulligan, and it's also discouraging that he hasn't really improved at all over the course of the season. I wonder if it was just a big mistake not to start him at AA this year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 2, 2021 12:54:01 GMT -5
Yorke finally at his rightful place in the Top 3, you could argue than any of Mayer, Casas or Yorke is the number 1 prospect imo. I'll take Crawford over Winckowski. Let's put it this way: If you have just one player to protect in the rule 5 draft who would you chose between Crawford and Winckowski? I'd go Mayer, Casas, and Yorke in that order just because Mayer's ceiling is superstar. And I'd go with Casas over Yorke because of Casas' proximity to the majors and his success in AA (I know the power hasn't shown quite as hoped, but I think it's obvious it's totally there and it will come. Yorke's question mark is defense as in is he a 2b or a LF? Hopefully he's a 2b. I have no questions about his bat other than simply counting down the days to his major league debut. I was thinking 2024 but it wouldn't shock me to see him up by the end of 2023. He has a Pedroia like bat. And I agree I'd protect Crawford over Winckowski.
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Post by jaffinator on Sept 2, 2021 14:45:51 GMT -5
I just saw the new rankings and I have to say 'Bravo' I think you guys nailed it pretty much across the board. Seemed to be some more aggresive changes than normal, but changes were warranted with performances by Yorke and Wilk (does he have a nickname?) among others. I was surprised about one thing though: why did Song drop? Was this because he's not coming back to baseball this season as some were expecting/hoping for? Was there a significant enough gap between Mata and Song that pushed 3 players in-between them? Is there doubt he will ever come back? Is this a re-adjustment from earlier overranking? I'd like to hear your guys' insights as in my mind Mata/Song were in a similar boat (despite different circumstances for their time missed). Edit: I just noticed he was dropped from a 4.5 to a 4, which would indicate a gap between Mata & Song - what was the reason for the grade reduction? For Song, I would assume it's less that he's dropping and more that a number of guys have done very well and raised their stock. Blaze Jordan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, and Brayan Bello being big examples of this, but it's been a pretty positive year across the system. Song is ranked 15th and he started the year 12th. Mayer was drafted, who would very clearly rank above him, and so you only need two real breakouts to make up the difference.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 14:57:51 GMT -5
I just saw the new rankings and I have to say 'Bravo' I think you guys nailed it pretty much across the board. Seemed to be some more aggresive changes than normal, but changes were warranted with performances by Yorke and Wilk (does he have a nickname?) among others. I was surprised about one thing though: why did Song drop? Was this because he's not coming back to baseball this season as some were expecting/hoping for? Was there a significant enough gap between Mata and Song that pushed 3 players in-between them? Is there doubt he will ever come back? Is this a re-adjustment from earlier overranking? I'd like to hear your guys' insights as in my mind Mata/Song were in a similar boat (despite different circumstances for their time missed). Edit: I just noticed he was dropped from a 4.5 to a 4, which would indicate a gap between Mata & Song - what was the reason for the grade reduction? For Song, I would assume it's less that he's dropping and more that a number of guys have done very well and raised their stock. Blaze Jordan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, and Brayan Bello being big examples of this, but it's been a pretty positive year across the system. Song is ranked 15th and he started the year 12th. Mayer was drafted, who would very clearly rank above him, and so you only need two real breakouts to make up the difference. Between August and September, the site's grade on Song was reduced.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 2, 2021 15:15:09 GMT -5
That's some pretty big helium for Bleis. I wonder what it's based on? Contacts in the organization? I assume no one from the site has been down to see any DSL games.
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 2, 2021 15:28:04 GMT -5
For Song, I would assume it's less that he's dropping and more that a number of guys have done very well and raised their stock. Blaze Jordan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, and Brayan Bello being big examples of this, but it's been a pretty positive year across the system. Song is ranked 15th and he started the year 12th. Mayer was drafted, who would very clearly rank above him, and so you only need two real breakouts to make up the difference. Between August and September, the site's grade on Song was reduced. At some point you just have to take his age into account. He has pitched 17 professional innings...all in Lowell (old low A)...he is 24...and he hasn't pitched in forever...what is his ETA if he comes back now? 2025? He'll be 27 by then...and there isn't even a sign that he is close to coming back.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2021 16:04:27 GMT -5
On Song: Given the previous reporting, we were hoping by this point in the process there would be more clarity regarding his potential return. The fact that there isn’t anything presents additional uncertainty regarding when and whether he’ll return to baseball, which is why he’s starting to fall in all rankings, not just ours. His projection grade was adjusted to reflect that uncertainty as well. (Compare to Mata - when knew when he's coming back, roughly. Consider if Mata, say, still wasn't throwing by mid-2022, I think that's a fair comp.) On Bleis there will be a Scout Chatter coming imminently. Keep an eye out. We've also discussed him on the podcast. wcsoxfan, are you seriously asking if a guy named "Wilkelman" has a nickname? Why on earth would you give him a nickname???
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 2, 2021 17:33:06 GMT -5
On Song: Given the previous reporting, we were hoping by this point in the process there would be more clarity regarding his potential return. The fact that there isn’t anything presents additional uncertainty regarding when and whether he’ll return to baseball, which is why he’s starting to fall in all rankings, not just ours. His projection grade was adjusted to reflect that uncertainty as well. (Compare to Mata - when knew when he's coming back, roughly. Consider if Mata, say, still wasn't throwing by mid-2022, I think that's a fair comp.) On Bleis there will be a Scout Chatter coming imminently. Keep an eye out. We've also discussed him on the podcast. wcsoxfan, are you seriously asking if a guy named "Wilkelman" has a nickname? Why on earth would you give him a nickname??? You all have been, in my opinion, too reluctant to lower your ranking of Song. You still are. If he ever comes back, and we all hope he does, he could and should be reranked then. But until then, his name just gets in the way. My personal opinion. I understand yours. We just disagree. EDIT: But why the change in rating. Nothing about your previous stance has changed in that regard? How does his quality go from 4.5 to 4.0 when nothing about his potential has changed?
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dd
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Post by dd on Sept 2, 2021 19:46:18 GMT -5
Not as many changes as last month but still a lot of news: - Nick Yorke was # 8 in August but he's now the 3rd ranked prospect!
- For the 2nd straight month Duran and Downs both dropped a spot due another player's ranking. last month it was Mayer's and this month Yorke. The non-Martinez JD's are now at 4 & 5 respectively.
- In the 8/8 rankings Connor Seabold fell from 6 to 9 but he got a piece of that back moving up to 8.
- Jay Groome up from 10 to 9.
- Blaze Jordan jumped from 13 to 10.
- Chris Murphy is up from 16 to 13.
- Wilkelman, ranked at 54 on 6/30 and 20th on 8/8 is now at # 14.
- Noah Song is down 3 at 15.
- Miguel Bleis is now 13th, up from 23rd last month and 35th in July.
- Eddinson Paulino is up from 29 to 21.
- Ceddanne Rafaela moved up 20 spots from 43 to 23. That's still not up to his highest at # 19 in February, 2020.
- Brandon Walter moved up 15 spots to 26.
- Shane Drohan up from 37 to 32.
- Victor Santos moved up 9 to # 36.
- Christian Kossa up 18 from near the bottom at 55 to 37.
- Eduardo Vaughn down from 34 to 38.
- Chih-Jung Liu is at # 40, up 7.
- Jeisson Rosario fell 9 places down to # 42.
- Brandon Howlett doubled that, dropping from 25 to 43.
- Niko Kavadas moved up from 48 to 45.
- Hudson Potts is at 48, down 10.
- Nathanael Cruz is up from 60 to 53.
- Frank German is down 7 at 56.
- Returning to the top 60 are:
- Jacob Wallace is at 51. He was 48th on 6/30.
- Stephen Scott, ranked last at # 54 on 9/1/19, is now back in the mix at # 50.
- Chase Shugart was last ranked # 59 on 6/1 and is back at # 57.
- Kole Cottam is at 59, right where he was 2 months ago.
- Raynel Espinal slipped back into the rankings in the last spot. He was # 53 on 6/1.
- Falling out of the top 60 this time are:
- Jose Adames (from 54);
- Jojan Mieses (56);
- Tyreque Reed (57);
- Jaxx Groshans (58).
[li]Last but not least, Tanner Houck, 5th last month, graduated from prospect stats.[/li][/ul] Meanwhile I'm falling for it again! The Red Sox are teasing us again, up 4-0 with a chance to split in Tampa ... I'm too old for this!!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 3, 2021 8:39:27 GMT -5
On Song: Given the previous reporting, we were hoping by this point in the process there would be more clarity regarding his potential return. The fact that there isn’t anything presents additional uncertainty regarding when and whether he’ll return to baseball, which is why he’s starting to fall in all rankings, not just ours. His projection grade was adjusted to reflect that uncertainty as well. (Compare to Mata - when knew when he's coming back, roughly. Consider if Mata, say, still wasn't throwing by mid-2022, I think that's a fair comp.) On Bleis there will be a Scout Chatter coming imminently. Keep an eye out. We've also discussed him on the podcast. wcsoxfan, are you seriously asking if a guy named "Wilkelman" has a nickname? Why on earth would you give him a nickname??? Too many syllables! (and letters to type - I'm lazy) "The Wilk-Man delivers?" (doesn't help with the syllables/letters - but best I've got) Gotcha on Song. My understanding was that he was expected back by the beginning of 2022 with a late 2021 return possible, I can understand that no info by now would make prospect rankers nervous. If he meets the original timetable of being back by the start of 2022, would he move back to a 4.5? (I was pretty excited about him when they drafted him -and still a bit excited)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2021 8:49:27 GMT -5
If he starts pitching again the first question is how does he look, because now, in theory, you can find that out. If he's riding a bicycle then it's more than a 4.5, that's for sure.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 3, 2021 12:31:47 GMT -5
If he starts pitching again the first question is how does he look, because now, in theory, you can find that out. If he's riding a bicycle then it's more than a 4.5, that's for sure. What if he's throwing mid 90's while on this bicycle?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 16:08:00 GMT -5
I wonder about guys like Potts, Rosario, and Gambrell and why they're on the list at all. It seems like guys who come over in trades get ranked higher than they might deserve.
Potts and Rosario were up around #20 for a while and they were a package deal in a trade for two months of Mitchie Two-bags. Gambrell was an underslot 3rd round pick for the Royals who hasn't done much since he left college (23 starts, 1.615 WHIP).
When ranking trade arrivals, are you basing your evaluations on the word of other organizations' scouts? If so, is there any reason why they would inflate their assessments? Would Red Sox scouts who saw the players from afar pump them up to you to subconsciously justify acquiring them in a trade?
Maybe these three guys are outliers but it just seems like guys who come over in trades often get optimistically ranked.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2021 18:17:31 GMT -5
I wonder about guys like Potts, Rosario, and Gambrell and why they're on the list at all. It seems like guys who come over in trades get ranked higher than they might deserve. Potts and Rosario were up around #20 for a while and they were a package deal in a trade for two months of Mitchie Two-bags. Gambrell was an underslot 3rd round pick for the Royals who hasn't done much since he left college (23 starts, 1.615 WHIP). When ranking trade arrivals, are you basing your evaluations on the word of other organizations' scouts? If so, is there any reason why they would inflate their assessments? Would Red Sox scouts who saw the players from afar pump them up to you to subconsciously justify acquiring them in a trade? Maybe these three guys are outliers but it just seems like guys who come over in trades often get optimistically ranked. I disagree with your premise. Winckowski has moved up since being traded. Downs has fallen. Seabold has risen. Guys like Wong and De La Rosa have more or less held steady. I don't agree there's been a uniform direction these guys have gone after arriving via trade. There's a bit of guesswork to ranking guys who come in trades even with good reports, but specific to Potts and Rosario, they were ranked as top 20 or 30 guys by every outlet, not just us. They've both had awful seasons and haven't looked good scouting-wise, so they've fallen. Does that mean where we ranked them when they came over was incorrect? I'd say no. On Gambrell, you say "his whole career" as if he'd thrown more than 50 innings as a pro since being a third-round pick prior to the trade. Guys rise and fall in rankings. This year, given that there was no 2020 season, we (a) haven't had adjustments that would probably have occurred during that year, and (b) have had to take into account that these guys didn't play at all last year when evaluating them early. We're now getting to the point where there's been a ton of movement as a result that would probably have played out more slowly over that twoish-year period.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 22:48:56 GMT -5
I wonder about guys like Potts, Rosario, and Gambrell and why they're on the list at all. It seems like guys who come over in trades get ranked higher than they might deserve. Potts and Rosario were up around #20 for a while and they were a package deal in a trade for two months of Mitchie Two-bags. Gambrell was an underslot 3rd round pick for the Royals who hasn't done much since he left college (23 starts, 1.615 WHIP). When ranking trade arrivals, are you basing your evaluations on the word of other organizations' scouts? If so, is there any reason why they would inflate their assessments? Would Red Sox scouts who saw the players from afar pump them up to you to subconsciously justify acquiring them in a trade? Maybe these three guys are outliers but it just seems like guys who come over in trades often get optimistically ranked. I disagree with your premise. Winckowski has moved up since being traded. Downs has fallen. Seabold has risen. Guys like Wong and De La Rosa have more or less held steady. I don't agree there's been a uniform direction these guys have gone after arriving via trade. There's a bit of guesswork to ranking guys who come in trades even with good reports, but specific to Potts and Rosario, they were ranked as top 20 or 30 guys by every outlet, not just us. They've both had awful seasons and haven't looked good scouting-wise, so they've fallen. Does that mean where we ranked them when they came over was incorrect? I'd say no. On Gambrell, you say "his whole career" as if he'd thrown more than 50 innings as a pro since being a third-round pick prior to the trade. Guys rise and fall in rankings. This year, given that there was no 2020 season, we (a) haven't had adjustments that would probably have occurred during that year, and (b) have had to take into account that these guys didn't play at all last year when evaluating them early. We're now getting to the point where there's been a ton of movement as a result that would probably have played out more slowly over that twoish-year period. Fair points all (although Gambrell has thrown 82 IP as a pro, not a ton but all age-appropriate and not great results).
I guess I was too focused on the guys who cost basically nothing (i.e. 2 guys for 2 months of Moreland) and yet were placed above kids who had slowly climbed the Sox ladder for several years. The other guys you point out were certainly not overrated.
Soon enough Potts and Rosario will be a distant memory (although depending on how things go with Duran and the rest of the covid outbreak, maybe Rosario will get a sniff at the bigs as a 5th OF).
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Post by unitspin on Sept 4, 2021 8:38:26 GMT -5
My top 10 (very important) Mayer Yorke Casas Duran Bello Downs Houck Jimenez Seabold Jordan Solid list.....
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 4, 2021 22:24:34 GMT -5
Casas is my number one because of plus plus power, a solid bat, plate discipline, pitch recognition and a good work ethic and a willingness to make adjustments.
Mayer is my number one because of a overflowing tool box at a premium position plus a decent start to his pro career.
Yorke is my number one because the man is a hitting machine with power and, the diving stop, righting himself and making an accurate throw to first base the other day is not just a 45 defender
4 I'd have Houck except he's graduated so, Duran.
5 Bello
6 Groome ( with the benefit of 20/20 from his first AA start).
7 Seabold. Solid stuff across the board with plus command of all of it.
8 and up, could be lots of different orders depending on what day of the week t is but I have Downs not in the top 10 or 12 dropping behind several. (I hope I'm wrong, apparently I was wrong about Dalbec).
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Post by ramireja on Sept 8, 2021 12:41:09 GMT -5
Moved Shugart discussion to his own thread
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Post by lennsakata on Sept 11, 2021 11:21:25 GMT -5
I don’t really get worked up about the rankings but surprised Juan Chacon isn’t somewhere in the top 60. OBP is.430 with 24/23 bb/k rate and 8 steals in 128 ab’s. Granted he is probably trending up with good numbers in the week+ since the rankings were updated but I’d have him comfortably in there somewhere
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 11, 2021 22:29:41 GMT -5
I don’t really get worked up about the rankings but surprised Juan Chacon isn’t somewhere in the top 60. OBP is.430 with 24/23 bb/k rate and 8 steals in 128 ab’s. Granted he is probably trending up with good numbers in the week+ since the rankings were updated but I’d have him comfortably in there somewhere I really don't care much about walks in the DSL, and the 7 steals come with 5 CS (not sure whether we're right with 8 and 4 or the site I was just looking at with 7 and 5, but point stands). He's on our radar (he's in the near-miss category for the top 60), but the numbers don't really jump off the page into being comfortably in the top 60 for me. With DSL guys, it's really about what they look like when they come stateside, to be honest, although we did get some reports from the DSL this year that led to us pumping up Bleis and Lira. Behind them, there's a group that includes Allan Castro, Johnfrank Salazar, Jhostnxon Garcia, Cahcon, Luis Ravelo that we have our eyes on for the hitter side.
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