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9/28-9/30 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 30, 2021 21:11:05 GMT -5
What makes it tough is how enjoyable they were for the first four months. They found ways to win games that they should have lost. The team had too many Danny Santanas and Marwin Gonzalezes, but they'd persevere. The team had guts and maximized everything. They were an absolute joy to watch. They add Schwarber and get Sale back and get rid of a lot of the deadwood, but they have found so many different ways to lose. They have done nothing but puke all over themselves in every way possible. They have become miserable to watch. Totally joyless. A team that was as gutsy as I've seen in 3 years became the polar opposite, as soft as can be. They are an embarrassing disgrace. I hope Bloom blows up this team and reshapes it this offseason. Give us an entertaining team, winning next year will be challenging with a stacked division, but at least give us a team that doesn’t look constipated. They’re playing like they all had a full cavity search and can’t do any of the basicsOn a miserable night, I found this comment to be damn funny.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 21:13:13 GMT -5
Today's lesson for everyone who was tossing out projections: even bad teams want to win. You can't take it for gramted that you can beat bad teams at will, especially if your team isn't that great either. It would be pretty ironic if the Red Sox season was scuttled by the first three and last three games against the Orioles. I've been doing projections but the past week it's been a battle between what your head tells you should happen versus what the gnawing gut feelings tell you. I projected 1 win against NY and figured I'd get pushback because I didn't project the home team to win 2 of 3. As it was as soon as they lost that first game I had an awful feeling gnawing at me that they'd do the one damn thing they needed not to do, which is to get swept. Logic tells you they should win at least 2 games and bash the Orioles pitching but after the way they screwed up against the Yankees, my gut was saying, they'll find a way to F up this series and lose 2 if 3 and after the 1st game you start to worry that the worst is going to happen. It's logic to project they take 2 of 3 against Washington, but the way they're going they'll lose at least 2 of 3. Logically, they still have a good shot to take the 2nd wild card. Emotionally....this team is toast.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 30, 2021 21:14:40 GMT -5
One thing this team sorely lacks is athleticism. They have a lot of slow plodding players that have trouble scoring from third and are not fast enough in the field. They also need someone to kick their butt when they mess up, wake them up. I am sure there will be changes from Bloom this offseason.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 21:14:44 GMT -5
Wow - looking at Xander by month
April - .330-4-13 May - .311-6-18 June - .347-3-17 July - .234-3-7 Aug - .258-4-15 Sept - .258-3-9
Raffi by month
April - .293-7-21 May - .266-7-22 June - .277-5-19 July - .310-8-20 August - .231-5-15 Sept - .287-3-11
JD by month
April - .351-9-25 May - .306-3-14 June - .253-4-15 July - .244-4-12 August - .276-4-18 Sept - .289-4-15
The troubles of the Sox in the second half are in part due to the heart of the line up not showing up as much as they did in the first half. Xander looks pretty bad - seems to have really gotten worn down
out of curiosity, here is Alex Verdugo by month
April - .300-3-13 May - .275-4-11 June - .257-2-8 July - .250-1-7 August - .341-2-10 Sept - .312-1-12
kind of consistently "OK - but Mookie he is not
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 21:17:43 GMT -5
Wow - looking at Xander by month April - .330-4-13 May - .311-6-18 June - .347-3-17 July - .234-3-7 Aug - .258-4-15 Sept - .258-3-9 Raffi by month April - .293-7-21 May - .266-7-22 June - .277-5-19 July - .310-8-20 August - .231-5-15 Sept - .287-3-11 JD by month April - .351-9-25 May - .306-3-14 June - .253-4-15 July - .244-4-12 August - .276-4-18 Sept - .289-4-15 The troubles of the Sox in the second half are in part due to the heart of the line up not showing up as much as they did in the first half. Xander looks pretty bad - seems to have really gotten worn down Maybe the wrist never got right?
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 30, 2021 21:20:17 GMT -5
Give us an entertaining team, winning next year will be challenging with a stacked division, but at least give us a team that doesn’t look constipated. They’re playing like they all had a full cavity search and can’t do any of the basicsOn a miserable night, I found this comment to be damn funny. We gotta entertain each other if the team can’t!
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 30, 2021 21:20:44 GMT -5
New SS that can pick it is key, Bogaerts can play 2nd
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 30, 2021 21:21:23 GMT -5
Relax fellas, they're still making the playoffs
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 30, 2021 21:22:44 GMT -5
Wow - looking at Xander by month April - .330-4-13 May - .311-6-18 June - .347-3-17 July - .234-3-7 Aug - .258-4-15 Sept - .258-3-9 Raffi by month April - .293-7-21 May - .266-7-22 June - .277-5-19 July - .310-8-20 August - .231-5-15 Sept - .287-3-11 JD by month April - .351-9-25 May - .306-3-14 June - .253-4-15 July - .244-4-12 August - .276-4-18 Sept - .289-4-15 The troubles of the Sox in the second half are in part due to the heart of the line up not showing up as much as they did in the first half. Xander looks pretty bad - seems to have really gotten worn down Maybe the wrist never got right? I think that’s right on, he’s really struggling to turn on inside pitches and GDPing instead on inside pitches he usually whips
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 21:24:29 GMT -5
Well, it has been a long time since we can say that Matt Barnes was one of the game's highlights! We have that tonight
My other thought - I would like to think we are nearing the end of the Garrett Richards experience. He is just so depressing to watch when things are not going perfectly - not sure if I've ever seen a player that wears his mood on his sleeve so clearly
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 30, 2021 21:25:23 GMT -5
Relax fellas, they're still making the playoffs Whatever we do, don’t tie and let the Yankees face some beat up teams in the WC game. Maybe the Nationals provide assisted suicide as a service?
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 30, 2021 21:33:18 GMT -5
Well, it has been a long time since we can say that Matt Barnes was one of the game's highlights! We have that tonight My other thought - I would like to think we are nearing the end of the Garrett Richards experience. He is just so depressing to watch when things are not going perfectly - not sure if I've ever seen a player that wears his mood on his sleeve so clearly There is a long list of players that the Sox could replace one way or the other next year. I am not going to repeat all the names the people on this Forum have said do not belong next year. C, 1B, 2b, ss, 3B (no more at the position), LF, RF and half or more of the pitching staff. I am not a happy camper, but I only want to replace five or six players.
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 30, 2021 21:34:15 GMT -5
Well, it has been a long time since we can say that Matt Barnes was one of the game's highlights! We have that tonight My other thought - I would like to think we are nearing the end of the Garrett Richards experience. He is just so depressing to watch when things are not going perfectly - not sure if I've ever seen a player that wears his mood on his sleeve so clearly It also highlights how much payroll we have coming off potentially (Richards is basically a John Smoltz/Justin Masterson waste of cash one year): Richards 8.5M Pedey 13.5M JDM 19.5M Ottavino 9M Vazquez 7M E-Rod 8.5M Perez 4.5 the Xander, Eovaldi, and Price off the books after 2022 the question is how they actually deploy the cash
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 21:35:05 GMT -5
Relax fellas, they're still making the playoffs I wouldn't count on it. I wouldnt be surprised to see the Sox lose 2 of 3 and Toronto sweeps Baltimore at home and hammers their pitching the way the Sox didnt. Or maybe it's a 1 game playoff and the Sox lose, and that doesn't even factor in the Mariners. And if they did get in and were fish food for the Yankees and their fans what good is that. Making the playoffs and knocking out the Yankees is the only way they can redeem their season and this team isn't good enough to do it.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 30, 2021 21:36:13 GMT -5
You capture something I've been thinking. There is no clear "heart" - emotional, inspiring leader - on this team. 2004 had Tek, Millar, Manny, Damon and Ortiz, and Schilling and Pedro 2007 had Youk, Pedroia, Lowell, Manny, Ortiz, Schilling and Paps 2013 had Napoli, Pedroia, Gomes, Victorino, Ortiz, and Koji 2018 had Mookie and a cast of great performances 2021 doesn't have that type of inspiring leadership. Not Xander, not Raffi, not JD - that is not their thing. Not Sale - I don't think a pitcher can be the only one doing this. I think it impacts the team and CB needs to ponder this sort of factor moving forward. And it seems corny, but why isn’t anyone busting up a cooler or dugout phone? I see high school games with more fire, I don’t mind losing as much as how lifeless this team has been. We’re Red Sox fans after all, we don’t take wins for granted, but even our crappy teams had some interesting personalities. I mean it almost makes me miss Carl Everett at this point… I just don't think it's in this roster's DNA to break anything but our hearts. As alluded to above: what is the core of the next great Red Sox team? Many of us thought we might be a few trades and maybe a free-agent signing or 2 away from legitimately challenging for a title. Looking at this current team, is this realistic? Other than Devers and maybe some of the younger pitchers, from another team's perspective, who has trade value on this roster that can bring you back something significant? Do you want to dip into the prospect bag and trade any of the top prospects? Chaim still has a lot of work to do. Sadly I see us falling back to an 85 win team next season, before challenging for the post-season in 2023. After that we will be on our way. Other than maybe Devers, I don't think any of the other current starting 10 will be here by then.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 30, 2021 21:37:02 GMT -5
Get his LF numbers as I imagine that includes Verdugo’s CF numbers, the LF numbers are the relevant topic. Verdugo is good for +7 DRS in LF, Schwarber is good for -5 (the metric I use).It’s not a contest. Eye test confirms this. Verdugo is a plus defender in LF both this year and for his career. Schwarber is borderline playable Touché. I guess DRS is better than UZR/150 (I wonder why anyone bothers to calculate and post UZR/150). I would still rather have Schwarber's bat in there vs. a LHP, even with a worse glove.
The problem right now is the offense. The defense has been a problem all year, even with the regular guys in there.
EDIT: One big thing coming out of this that I hadn't realized is that Doogie should never play CF (-6 DRS, -14.4 UZR/150).
Looking deeper into it, Fangraphs uses UZR, which they then adjust based on positional value (i.e. SS > 3B > DH) and figure it into their overall WAR.
EDIT: Sorry to go back to this. I forgot that it was venting hour...
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Post by curtisw on Sept 30, 2021 21:43:52 GMT -5
Too bummed to offer anything.
Two things I’m going to ponder though: does a team really need a guy or two to be really inspiring and good at leadership?
And did this team really not have such an individual? I can’t point to some like Schwarber, Verdugo, Devers, Plawecki even. But honestly I can already see the arguments forming against that. So I don’t know. As I said I’m very crushed by this series.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 21:45:06 GMT -5
The Yankees won.
So they go from 41-41 to 91-68, which is 50-27 since then.
The Sox went from 63-40 to 89-70, which is 26-30.
The second half of the season kind of indicates the direction of your team, what they have become.
The Yankees finally, through it all, persevered to morph into the team they were supposed to be while the Red Sox spent the final third of the season being a losing team. They're not really a playoff caliber team at this point. That's not what they've become.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 21:49:52 GMT -5
So, here are the latest playoff odds for the main players, according to 538.com
MFY - 97% Boston - 45% Seattle - 42% Toronto - 16%
So much for being in control of your destiny and doing something about it.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 30, 2021 21:52:06 GMT -5
So, here are the latest playoff odds for the main players, according to 538.com MFY - 97% Boston - 45% Seattle - 42% Toronto - 16% So much for being in control of your destiny and doing something about it. Good thing all this time we've had the easiest remaining strength of schedule.
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 30, 2021 22:00:01 GMT -5
Does anyone remember Manny after Game 4 of the 2007 ALCS saying “it’s just a game”? They need to either get intense and pissed off or just not give a shit, but this feels like purgatory. How about blowing a 5-run lead or something? Just don’t give us these 5-pitch 1-2-3 innings
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Post by tyler3 on Sept 30, 2021 22:19:08 GMT -5
…. It seems to me that the only real valuable asset we have…as in plays super well but gets paid little..is probably Renfroe and Devers….I want to keep Devers, I like Renfroe….but I do wonder what..say 2 years of arbitration Renfroe would be worth? He’s probably a better right fielder anywhere else than Fenway, rocket arm, 30 jacks….I don’t know…seems like a classic sell high candidate.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2021 22:25:47 GMT -5
The Yankees won. So they go from 41-41 to 91-68, which is 50-27 since then. The Sox went from 63-40 to 89-70, which is 26-30. The second half of the season kind of indicates the direction of your team, what they have become. The Yankees finally, through it all, persevered to morph into the team they were supposed to be while the Red Sox spent the final third of the season being a losing team. They're not really a playoff caliber team at this point. That's not what they've become. It's coming from the away games too. We talked in the beginning of the year how they struggled at home (in April) and how great they were on the road, that road mojo essentially reverses at the midway point. April to June they were 26-17 at home and 24-14 away, consistently at the 0.600 mark for both. July to Sept they were 23-15 at home and 16-24 away. Even with that dumpster fire last weekend that's still 0.600 ball at home, they just lost their mojo on the road, case in point this week.
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Post by benzinger on Sept 30, 2021 22:28:53 GMT -5
You capture something I've been thinking. There is no clear "heart" - emotional, inspiring leader - on this team. 2004 had Tek, Millar, Manny, Damon and Ortiz, and Schilling and Pedro 2007 had Youk, Pedroia, Lowell, Manny, Ortiz, Schilling and Paps 2013 had Napoli, Pedroia, Gomes, Victorino, Ortiz, and Koji 2018 had Mookie and a cast of great performances 2021 doesn't have that type of inspiring leadership. Not Xander, not Raffi, not JD - that is not their thing. Not Sale - I don't think a pitcher can be the only one doing this. I think it impacts the team and CB needs to ponder this sort of factor moving forward. And it seems corny, but why isn’t anyone busting up a cooler or dugout phone? I see high school games with more fire, I don’t mind losing as much as how lifeless this team has been. We’re Red Sox fans after all, we don’t take wins for granted, but even our crappy teams had some interesting personalities. I mean it almost makes me miss Carl Everett at this point… This is so true. Did Cora even get ejected once this season? Was there ever a “players-only meeting” where thousands of expletives were yelled? If so, I don’t recall any of it. No fire at all. The big leaders of this team are Xander, JDM and Devers and I don’t think any of them did much more than smile all year. We need more than that.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 30, 2021 22:44:39 GMT -5
So, here are the latest playoff odds for the main players, according to 538.com MFY - 97% Boston - 45% Seattle - 42% Toronto - 16% So much for being in control of your destiny and doing something about it. Good thing all this time we've had the easiest remaining strength of schedule. I do like 538, but these are the same guys who give Manchester City a 22% chance of winning the Champions League while giving Paris SG a 3% chance even though PSG beat City this week. Seattle is home to LA Angels of Anaheim. Sox are away to DC—and we are not exactly firing on all cylinders.
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