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9/28-9/30 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 22:56:22 GMT -5
Good thing all this time we've had the easiest remaining strength of schedule. I do like 538, but these are the same guys who give Manchester City a 22% chance of winning the Champions League while giving Paris SG a 3% chance even though PSG beat City this week. Seattle is home to LA Angels of Anaheim. Sox are away to DC—and we are not exactly firing on all cylinders. ESPN is a little more bullish on the Sox - 60-30-14 for Sox, Seattle and Toronto chances
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 22:59:41 GMT -5
I do like 538, but these are the same guys who give Manchester City a 22% chance of winning the Champions League while giving Paris SG a 3% chance even though PSG beat City this week. Seattle is home to LA Angels of Anaheim. Sox are away to DC—and we are not exactly firing on all cylinders. ESPN is a little more bullish on the Sox - 60-30-14 for Sox, Seattle and Toronto chances Let's see where they're at after Sunday's game. lol
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Post by benzinger on Sept 30, 2021 23:03:22 GMT -5
Wow - looking at Xander by month April - .330-4-13 May - .311-6-18 June - .347-3-17 July - .234-3-7 Aug - .258-4-15 Sept - .258-3-9 Raffi by month April - .293-7-21 May - .266-7-22 June - .277-5-19 July - .310-8-20 August - .231-5-15 Sept - .287-3-11 JD by month April - .351-9-25 May - .306-3-14 June - .253-4-15 July - .244-4-12 August - .276-4-18 Sept - .289-4-15 The troubles of the Sox in the second half are in part due to the heart of the line up not showing up as much as they did in the first half. Xander looks pretty bad - seems to have really gotten worn down out of curiosity, here is Alex Verdugo by month April - .300-3-13 May - .275-4-11 June - .257-2-8 July - .250-1-7 August - .341-2-10 Sept - .312-1-12 kind of consistently "OK - but Mookie he is not 13 homers from Verdugo this year. He’s as pedestrian as they come. He didn’t even outperform Benintendi this season.
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Post by benzinger on Sept 30, 2021 23:07:42 GMT -5
Well, it has been a long time since we can say that Matt Barnes was one of the game's highlights! We have that tonight My other thought - I would like to think we are nearing the end of the Garrett Richards experience. He is just so depressing to watch when things are not going perfectly - not sure if I've ever seen a player that wears his mood on his sleeve so clearly It also highlights how much payroll we have coming off potentially (Richards is basically a John Smoltz/Justin Masterson waste of cash one year): Richards 8.5M Pedey 13.5M JDM 19.5M Ottavino 9M Vazquez 7M E-Rod 8.5M Perez 4.5 the Xander, Eovaldi, and Price off the books after 2022 the question is how they actually deploy the cash My lord...it seemed like that “team friendly” deal Pedroia signed was 50 years. It’s hard to imagine getting less from a contract than that one. I guess Sandoval is about the only competition in recent memory.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,097
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Post by cdj on Sept 30, 2021 23:25:31 GMT -5
Wow - looking at Xander by month April - .330-4-13 May - .311-6-18 June - .347-3-17 July - .234-3-7 Aug - .258-4-15 Sept - .258-3-9 Raffi by month April - .293-7-21 May - .266-7-22 June - .277-5-19 July - .310-8-20 August - .231-5-15 Sept - .287-3-11 JD by month April - .351-9-25 May - .306-3-14 June - .253-4-15 July - .244-4-12 August - .276-4-18 Sept - .289-4-15 The troubles of the Sox in the second half are in part due to the heart of the line up not showing up as much as they did in the first half. Xander looks pretty bad - seems to have really gotten worn down out of curiosity, here is Alex Verdugo by month April - .300-3-13 May - .275-4-11 June - .257-2-8 July - .250-1-7 August - .341-2-10 Sept - .312-1-12 kind of consistently "OK - but Mookie he is not 13 homers from Verdugo this year. He’s as pedestrian as they come. He didn’t even outperform Benintendi this season. ….but he did though. Unless homers are your only way of measuring performance. He didn’t do it by a lot but he still outperformed him by most standards. And Benintendi had a recent red hot stretch where he looked like vintage Benny so using him as a standard of failure like you seem to be doing isn’t appropriate either Like do we look at Hunter Renfroe and think he’s pedestrian? I know I don’t. Because they basically have the same WAR.
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2021 23:29:18 GMT -5
13 homers from Verdugo this year. He’s as pedestrian as they come. He didn’t even outperform Benintendi this season. ….but he did though. Unless homers are your only way of measuring performance. It is close. Beni was hurt, so has many fewer games. But they are about the same for bWAR. Verdugo is a bit ahead in fWAR, but, again, has played a bunch more. Beni has a higher slugging, and is batting about 10 points lower. It is very, very close.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,097
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Post by cdj on Sept 30, 2021 23:30:57 GMT -5
….but he did though. Unless homers are your only way of measuring performance. It is close. Beni was hurt, so has many fewer games. But they are about the same for bWAR. Verdugo is a bit ahead in fWAR, but, again, has played a bunch more. Beni has a higher slugging, and is batting about 10 points lower. It is very, very close. ….and getting on base way less than Verdugo. It’s not particularly close in that category and I’ve been told on here that it’s more important than slugging, where the margin is substantially thinner between the two players OPS+ 108 to 101 But again using benintendi as a measuring stick for mediocrity when he had a pretty good season is weird. Being slightly above league average with the bat and being a good glove is not a “pedestrian” player
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2021 23:42:30 GMT -5
It is close. Beni was hurt, so has many fewer games. But they are about the same for bWAR. Verdugo is a bit ahead in fWAR, but, again, has played a bunch more. Beni has a higher slugging, and is batting about 10 points lower. It is very, very close. ….and getting on base way less than Verdugo. It’s not particularly close in that category and I’ve been told on here that it’s more important than slugging, where the margin is substantially thinner between the two players OPS+ 108 to 101 But again using benintendi as a measuring stick for mediocrity when he had a pretty good season is weird. Being slightly above league average with the bat and being a good glove is not a “pedestrian” player That OPS gap will be tighter tomorrow. As some have shown, Verdugo is a mixed bag defensively. I agree… mediocre is a bit strong. But marginally above mediocre? Replaceable?
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2021 23:48:27 GMT -5
It also highlights how much payroll we have coming off potentially (Richards is basically a John Smoltz/Justin Masterson waste of cash one year): Richards 8.5M Pedey 13.5M JDM 19.5M Ottavino 9M Vazquez 7M E-Rod 8.5M Perez 4.5 the Xander, Eovaldi, and Price off the books after 2022 the question is how they actually deploy the cash My lord...it seemed like that “team friendly” deal Pedroia signed was 50 years. It’s hard to imagine getting less from a contract than that one. I guess Sandoval is about the only competition in recent memory. Are you ignoring the first half of the contract where he produced 12.9 fWAR / 14.5 bWAR?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,097
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Post by cdj on Oct 1, 2021 0:20:07 GMT -5
….and getting on base way less than Verdugo. It’s not particularly close in that category and I’ve been told on here that it’s more important than slugging, where the margin is substantially thinner between the two players OPS+ 108 to 101 But again using benintendi as a measuring stick for mediocrity when he had a pretty good season is weird. Being slightly above league average with the bat and being a good glove is not a “pedestrian” player That OPS gap will be tighter tomorrow. As some have shown, Verdugo is a mixed bag defensively. I agree… mediocre is a bit strong. But marginally above mediocre? Replaceable? I think “solid MLB regular” is appropriate. Both have shown the ability for more too We post on a prospect development site. We see how hard it is to develop a major leaguer, let alone an MLB regular. I don’t see how one could classify a regular who is above average in both facets of the game as marginally above mediocre but to each their own. Mediocre to me is what Christian Vazquez has given us this year. I don’t think what Benny or Verdugo do is marginally above him, I think they’re a great deal above him in terms of player quality
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Post by nuttyredsox on Oct 1, 2021 1:38:49 GMT -5
Move on from Benintendi, he no longer plays with the RS. Some dudes are coming back after spending the season in hiding after criticising all the signs of the off season.
They were quite because the team did a hell of a job, now that the season is about over are back to spray poison again.
If you are so good get a job as GM.
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2021 8:07:12 GMT -5
That OPS gap will be tighter tomorrow. As some have shown, Verdugo is a mixed bag defensively. I agree… mediocre is a bit strong. But marginally above mediocre? Replaceable? I think “solid MLB regular” is appropriate. Both have shown the ability for more too We post on a prospect development site. We see how hard it is to develop a major leaguer, let alone an MLB regular. I don’t see how one could classify a regular who is above average in both facets of the game as marginally above mediocre but to each their own. Mediocre to me is what Christian Vazquez has given us this year. I don’t think what Benny or Verdugo do is marginally above him, I think they’re a great deal above him in terms of player quality I guess I think of it in the context of the heat Devers, X, JDM take. Especially the first two have been the two best players on the team, and a lot of people are dumping on them. Your CVaz reference is very fair. The fact is, the problem with the Sox is not Devers or X or JDM… all of whom have put up numbers that will definitely suffice. It is that at the margins they are just not quite as good as we might hope. Catcher is an example, indeed. But other positions, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2021 8:18:59 GMT -5
I think “solid MLB regular” is appropriate. Both have shown the ability for more too We post on a prospect development site. We see how hard it is to develop a major leaguer, let alone an MLB regular. I don’t see how one could classify a regular who is above average in both facets of the game as marginally above mediocre but to each their own. Mediocre to me is what Christian Vazquez has given us this year. I don’t think what Benny or Verdugo do is marginally above him, I think they’re a great deal above him in terms of player quality I guess I think of it in the context of the heat Devers, X, JDM take. Especially the first two have been the two best players on the team, and a lot of people are dumping on them. Your CVaz reference is very fair. The fact is, the problem with the Sox is not Devers or X or JDM… all of whom have put up numbers that will definitely suffice. It is that at the margins they are just not quite as good as we might hope. Catcher is an example, indeed. But other positions, too. FWIW, I don't want to rehash all the options about what they could have done this past winter for pitching but yeah, you were right about Garrett Richards. I'm looking forward to not seeing him in a Red Sox uniform next season. And Bloom better not bring back Perez while he's at it, either. That one I didn't like from the start.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2021 8:22:28 GMT -5
Move on from Benintendi, he no longer plays with the RS. Some dudes are coming back after spending the season in hiding after criticising all the signs of the off season. They were quite because the team did a hell of a job, now that the season is about over are back to spray poison again. If you are so good get a job as GM. This isn't even about Benintendi. I was fine with them trading him away even if they likely got nothing back for him, but the notion that because there wasn't a help wanted sign for all of us to apply for the job of GM (or Baseball Ops chief) doesn't mean that we cannot critique him or complement him or something in between. That's silly. Why even bother having a discussion group? We can have a worship shrine instead if that's your mentality.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2021 9:31:17 GMT -5
I guess I think of it in the context of the heat Devers, X, JDM take. Especially the first two have been the two best players on the team, and a lot of people are dumping on them. Your CVaz reference is very fair. The fact is, the problem with the Sox is not Devers or X or JDM… all of whom have put up numbers that will definitely suffice. It is that at the margins they are just not quite as good as we might hope. Catcher is an example, indeed. But other positions, too. FWIW, I don't want to rehash all the options about what they could have done this past winter for pitching but yeah, you were right about Garrett Richards. I'm looking forward to not seeing him in a Red Sox uniform next season. And Bloom better not bring back Perez while he's at it, either. That one I didn't like from the start. Martin Perez gave them 0.5 to 0.6 WAR, exactly what they paid for. I get it that he wasn't great and he disappeared in the final third (I also want him upgraded next year), but what were you expecting from the start for the guy we signed to be a 5th starter? It wasn't like he was blocking a multi-WAR pitcher below him.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 1, 2021 9:31:58 GMT -5
I guess I think of it in the context of the heat Devers, X, JDM take. Especially the first two have been the two best players on the team, and a lot of people are dumping on them. Your CVaz reference is very fair. The fact is, the problem with the Sox is not Devers or X or JDM… all of whom have put up numbers that will definitely suffice. It is that at the margins they are just not quite as good as we might hope. Catcher is an example, indeed. But other positions, too. FWIW, I don't want to rehash all the options about what they could have done this past winter for pitching but yeah, you were right about Garrett Richards. I'm looking forward to not seeing him in a Red Sox uniform next season. And Bloom better not bring back Perez while he's at it, either. That one I didn't like from the start. Richards and Perez helped us quite a bit in the first half. I don’t want them back either. But, they helped a bit over what we had to throw out there last year. Our good players were very good in the first half. They tailed off. We got no help all season from our system. Only rookie contributor was from Yankees. We got no pitching help. Duran wasn’t ready and we got no bats either. This isn’t a one year rebuild. We can contend next year because we have good players and money. But, if you want sustainable success, which is Bloom’s goal. Patience Grasshopper
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 1, 2021 10:25:24 GMT -5
lol I bet CV is happy about Plawecki suddenly getting back to back starts for the first time all year
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Post by benzinger on Oct 1, 2021 10:29:59 GMT -5
My lord...it seemed like that “team friendly” deal Pedroia signed was 50 years. It’s hard to imagine getting less from a contract than that one. I guess Sandoval is about the only competition in recent memory. Are you ignoring the first half of the contract where he produced 12.9 fWAR / 14.5 bWAR? Not at all. Is that a lot of production over the course of an 8 year/$110m deal?
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Post by benzinger on Oct 1, 2021 10:35:30 GMT -5
13 homers from Verdugo this year. He’s as pedestrian as they come. He didn’t even outperform Benintendi this season. ….but he did though. Unless homers are your only way of measuring performance. He didn’t do it by a lot but he still outperformed him by most standards. And Benintendi had a recent red hot stretch where he looked like vintage Benny so using him as a standard of failure like you seem to be doing isn’t appropriate either Like do we look at Hunter Renfroe and think he’s pedestrian? I know I don’t. Because they basically have the same WAR. That’s fair. There is definitely more to life than homers. But I just think Verdugo regressed quite a bit this year(even from what he was 2 years ago with the Dodgers). He’s one of the bigger disappointments this season in my book. And his 162 game average of 15 homers and 57 RBI’s seems very easy to replace. I don’t understand those on here who refer to him as the “Verdugod”. He’s slightly above average. That’s it.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 1, 2021 10:49:00 GMT -5
Are you ignoring the first half of the contract where he produced 12.9 fWAR / 14.5 bWAR? Not at all. Is that a lot of production over the course of an 8 year deal? I don't look at Pedroia's deal as a reckless contract. An unexpected event (FU Machado) that had nothing to do with DP's age or length of contract effectively ended his career. And the AAV wasn't crushing.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Oct 1, 2021 11:00:11 GMT -5
Are you ignoring the first half of the contract where he produced 12.9 fWAR / 14.5 bWAR? Not at all. Is that a lot of production over the course of an 8 year/$110m deal? It's obviously not great, but it's not even in the ballpark for worst contract in recent memory. Pablo Sandoval got $95m to put up negative WAR. Carl Crawford got $142m to put up like 4 WAR.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2021 11:16:12 GMT -5
FWIW, I don't want to rehash all the options about what they could have done this past winter for pitching but yeah, you were right about Garrett Richards. I'm looking forward to not seeing him in a Red Sox uniform next season. And Bloom better not bring back Perez while he's at it, either. That one I didn't like from the start. Martin Perez gave them 0.5 to 0.6 WAR, exactly what they paid for. I get it that he wasn't great and he disappeared in the final third (I also want him upgraded next year), but what were you expecting from the start for the guy we signed to be a 5th starter? It wasn't like he was blocking a multi-WAR pitcher below him. I expected him to be mediocre and completely useless by the second half of the season because he has a long history of doing that. Like with the Twins they probably had him penciled into their playoff rotation at midseason and by the end he was so horrible he was off the roster. I knew he wouldn't be able to hold a rotation spot even as a 5th starter. That's what I was expecting him from and he was as I figured. Again, I have no desire to see him come back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2021 11:19:51 GMT -5
FWIW, I don't want to rehash all the options about what they could have done this past winter for pitching but yeah, you were right about Garrett Richards. I'm looking forward to not seeing him in a Red Sox uniform next season. And Bloom better not bring back Perez while he's at it, either. That one I didn't like from the start. Richards and Perez helped us quite a bit in the first half. I don’t want them back either. But, they helped a bit over what we had to throw out there last year. Our good players were very good in the first half. They tailed off. We got no help all season from our system. Only rookie contributor was from Yankees. We got no pitching help. Duran wasn’t ready and we got no bats either. This isn’t a one year rebuild. We can contend next year because we have good players and money. But, if you want sustainable success, which is Bloom’s goal. Patience Grasshopper I would say the Sox won more in despite of Richards and Perez to be honest. I don't disagree with anything you said. I have the same asssessment of the season you have. I have plenty of patience for the future but not much more for this season. I know what Bloom's larger goal is and I'm all for it if he can pull it off.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2021 11:30:24 GMT -5
….but he did though. Unless homers are your only way of measuring performance. It is close. Beni was hurt, so has many fewer games. But they are about the same for bWAR. Verdugo is a bit ahead in fWAR, but, again, has played a bunch more. Beni has a higher slugging, and is batting about 10 points lower. It is very, very close. Been over this before, but Beni's bWAR is a function of DRS having him as the best left fielder in the league. I haven't really seen him play this season - maybe that's what he is! But there's kind of a rhetorical double switch going on (not necessarily by you, but suggested by the sequence of comments as a whole): "Benintendi is a mediocre bat. Verdugo's basically got the same WAR as Benintendi. Therefore Verdugo is mediocre."
But substitute "Verdugo has basically the same WAR as [an elite defender with an average bat]," which is what bWAR "thinks" Benintendi is, and that gives us a clearer picture of what we're talking about. An "elite defender with an average bat" is a pretty good player; but at the same time it's kind of a different profile than Verdugo, so it makes it a bit of an odd comparison.
(Also soxfansince 67's summary of Verdugo's stats by months paint a picture of a guy who was fighting through an injury in June/July and then got healthy, which is what it pretty much looked like at the time.)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 1, 2021 11:34:34 GMT -5
lol I bet CV is happy about Plawecki suddenly getting back to back starts for the first time all year It would appear then that his option is going to be exercised. Therefore, I bet he's really happy because he's not getting $7m on the open market.
And it would also appear that Chaim is not going to do to Christian what he did to Perez, which was reject his option, tell him "Go try to find a better deal," and then re-sign him for about half of what the option was.
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