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9/28-9/30 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by manfred on Oct 1, 2021 12:12:39 GMT -5
It is close. Beni was hurt, so has many fewer games. But they are about the same for bWAR. Verdugo is a bit ahead in fWAR, but, again, has played a bunch more. Beni has a higher slugging, and is batting about 10 points lower. It is very, very close. Been over this before, but Beni's bWAR is a function of DRS having him as the best left fielder in the league. I haven't really seen him play this season - maybe that's what he is! But there's kind of a rhetorical double switch going on (not necessarily by you, but suggested by the sequence of comments as a whole): "Benintendi is a mediocre bat. Verdugo's basically got the same WAR as Benintendi. Therefore Verdugo is mediocre."
But substitute "Verdugo has basically the same WAR as [an elite defender with an average bat]," which is what bWAR "thinks" Benintendi is, and that gives us a clearer picture of what we're talking about. An "elite defender with an average bat" is a pretty good player; but at the same time it's kind of a different profile than Verdugo, so it makes it a bit of an odd comparison.
(Also soxfansince 67's summary of Verdugo's stats by months paint a picture of a guy who was fighting through an injury in June/July and then got healthy, which is what it pretty much looked like at the time.)
I don’t want to drag it out, because it is largely irrelevant, but setting bWAR aside, there is a lot of overlap just offensively. Beni — .275/.320/.441 OPS+ of 103 fWAR 1.9 Verdugo — .288/.351/.426 OPS+ of 106 fWAR 2.2 And Beni has been hurt much of the season too. Again, it is largely irrelevant— I was not against trading Beni (though I hated the return). But I do think when it comes to the weaknesses the team has and the failures we see on offense, Verdugo gets an odd pass on these boards. I argued going into the season the outfield was weak. I was badly underestimating Kiké and Renfroe, but even so, that remains an area in need of an upgrade. And Verdugo is #3 in that group.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2021 12:58:47 GMT -5
Well 30 points of OBP is kind of a big deal, and the more important component of OPS. I would call Verdugo a slightly but clearly better hitter than Benintendi this season.
I don't really know why Verdugo *shouldn't* get a pass on his offensive production, when he's been an above-average producer. But I also agree with your point that there is an odd amount of hostility toward our best hitters for their not being even better hitters; so on that count, sure, I guess if you're going to be disappointed in Devers it would be fair to ask why you're not disappointed in Verdugo. (My own view is that the lineup in its current form is quite good and everyone in it is doing their best.)
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Post by benzinger on Oct 1, 2021 14:00:04 GMT -5
Not at all. Is that a lot of production over the course of an 8 year/$110m deal? It's obviously not great, but it's not even in the ballpark for worst contract in recent memory. Pablo Sandoval got $95m to put up negative WAR. Carl Crawford got $142m to put up like 4 WAR. Crawford was a much worse deal, but fortunately the Dodgers ate a big chunk of that one. Panda is probably the worst deal they’ve ever signed. I know Pedroia is much loved, but I always thought that deal would end horribly. It’s just that Machado greatly accelerated that timeline.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 1, 2021 14:04:10 GMT -5
Been over this before, but Beni's bWAR is a function of DRS having him as the best left fielder in the league. I haven't really seen him play this season - maybe that's what he is! But there's kind of a rhetorical double switch going on (not necessarily by you, but suggested by the sequence of comments as a whole): "Benintendi is a mediocre bat. Verdugo's basically got the same WAR as Benintendi. Therefore Verdugo is mediocre."
But substitute "Verdugo has basically the same WAR as [an elite defender with an average bat]," which is what bWAR "thinks" Benintendi is, and that gives us a clearer picture of what we're talking about. An "elite defender with an average bat" is a pretty good player; but at the same time it's kind of a different profile than Verdugo, so it makes it a bit of an odd comparison.
(Also soxfansince 67's summary of Verdugo's stats by months paint a picture of a guy who was fighting through an injury in June/July and then got healthy, which is what it pretty much looked like at the time.)
I don’t want to drag it out, because it is largely irrelevant, but setting bWAR aside, there is a lot of overlap just offensively. Beni — .275/.320/.441 OPS+ of 103 fWAR 1.9 Verdugo — .288/.351/.426 OPS+ of 106 fWAR 2.2 And Beni has been hurt much of the season too. Again, it is largely irrelevant— I was not against trading Beni (though I hated the return). But I do think when it comes to the weaknesses the team has and the failures we see on offense, Verdugo gets an odd pass on these boards. I argued going into the season the outfield was weak. I was badly underestimating Kiké and Renfroe, but even so, that remains an area in need of an upgrade. And Verdugo is #3 in that group. This really nails it. Verdugo greatly underperformed this season. It’s not that any of us miss Benintendi, but this was the year that Verdugo was supposed to take that big step forward. Instead of doing that, he regressed. A “Verdugod” he is certainly not.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2021 17:01:15 GMT -5
Are you ignoring the first half of the contract where he produced 12.9 fWAR / 14.5 bWAR? Not at all. Is that a lot of production over the course of an 8 year/$110m deal? That much WAR is about 104M-116M of production on the open market using 8M per WAR, it was looking like it would be very team-friendly until he got Machado'd. With that said, paying Pedroia for 0 production the past 4 years hurt, so it's going to feel good to be able to deploy that money going forward. It's just sad to see him not be able to finish his career on his terms, he was on the border for the hall of fame if he didn't get hurt and kept producing ~3 WAR per year. Career 46 fWAR / 52 bWAR, I think 60 would have gotten him in, with a chance if he had 55-60, as Vlad and Piazza both got in this past decade with 59.5 bWAR.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2021 17:07:16 GMT -5
Martin Perez gave them 0.5 to 0.6 WAR, exactly what they paid for. I get it that he wasn't great and he disappeared in the final third (I also want him upgraded next year), but what were you expecting from the start for the guy we signed to be a 5th starter? It wasn't like he was blocking a multi-WAR pitcher below him. I expected him to be mediocre and completely useless by the second half of the season because he has a long history of doing that. Like with the Twins they probably had him penciled into their playoff rotation at midseason and by the end he was so horrible he was off the roster. I knew he wouldn't be able to hold a rotation spot even as a 5th starter. That's what I was expecting him from and he was as I figured. Again, I have no desire to see him come back. Agreed, I think what this really shows is that going out on the open market for your number 5 starter is not sustainable if you plan to run a good org. Either case - cheap player who isn't good (i.e. Perez) or paying 20M for 2.5 WAR at the number 5 spot both look horrible. A healthy system will fill that spot with cost-controlled talent.
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