radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,362
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Post by radiohix on Sept 24, 2022 12:57:58 GMT -5
Hits nukes, throws heat and runs like the wind. They should name the MVP trophy after Shohei Ohtani.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2022 14:28:20 GMT -5
The Mariners paid a steep price in prospects to get Luis Castillo, but at least they're keeping him. They have signed him to a 5 year deal that could go to six years for 133 million.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2022 12:07:26 GMT -5
Geez, I blinked and the Guardians completely put their division away.
So with ~10 games to go, the 6 AL playoff teams are already set. As it stands the two weakest teams in the first round (Cleveland and Seattle) will fight it out to play the #2 seed Yankees, while the winner between the two strongest teams (Toronto and Tampa Bay) would play the #1 seed Astros. Cool system.
But if they don't catch up to Toronto in the next few days I wonder if TB will tank to get that #3 wild card for the easier path through Cleveland and New York. That would seem like a Rays-ish thing to do.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2022 12:51:52 GMT -5
The NL is down to 7 teams for 6 spots as well, plus a race between the Mets and Braves for the division and a bye.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2022 16:18:07 GMT -5
Chavis DFA to make room for Andujar.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 28, 2022 14:30:09 GMT -5
Shane Baz had TJ surgery and will miss 2023. Rays have had terrible luck with pitcher injuries.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,362
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Post by radiohix on Sept 29, 2022 9:07:42 GMT -5
Shane Baz had TJ surgery and will miss 2023. Rays have had terrible luck with pitcher injuries. At what point we start thinking that maybe it's not just luck? Maybe pitching programs? Or their pitching load management? Evey year at least one of their arms gets a significant injury.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2022 9:44:43 GMT -5
Shane Baz had TJ surgery and will miss 2023. Rays have had terrible luck with pitcher injuries. At what point we start thinking that maybe it's not just luck? Maybe pitching programs? Or their pitching load management? Evey year at least one of their arms gets a significant injury. Baz pitched 92 innings last year and 40 innings this year. Glasnow never pitched more than 88 innings in a season for the Rays. Hardly seems like load management is the issue.
Occam's razor just says that pitchers get injured all the damn time. I don't think anyone thinks there's a systemic reason that the Red Sox starting rotation sans Pivetta all went down this year, or why they've had injury issues with a bunch of pitching prospects (Ward, Mata, Aldo Ramirez, etc.). It's just what happens. Unless someone can actually point to something unique in the way the Rays handle their pitchers I'll assume that's all it is with them too.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 29, 2022 22:50:00 GMT -5
Interesting Ohtani start tonight
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 30, 2022 10:46:19 GMT -5
Sixto Sanchez to undergo another shoulder surgery. Hug and hold your can't miss pitching prospects a little harder today. There wasn't much I wouldn't have given up for him back in 2020
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2022 11:04:43 GMT -5
TINSTAAPP should really be TINSTAAHP, the new ending being "healthy pitcher."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 5:21:54 GMT -5
Tonight features what has to be the most important game # 159 (or 151 pre-expansion) in MLB history.
Whoever wins tonight also grabs the tie-breaker. If the Braves complete a sweep, their magic number is 1.
But if the Mets win, they're in virtual first with a magic number of 3. And they finish the season at home against the Nats while the Braves are in Miami, a better club, and the Braves actually have the worse of the pitching matchups in their games 1 and 2, although the offense and bullpens still make them favorites. But it's much easier to see the Braves winning just 2 of 3 than the Mets, which gives the Mets extra leeway if they grab the advantage.
Looking at offense and bullpens since the trade deadline, offenses are identical but the Braves have a .278 to .298 wOBA (average expected and actual) edge in the pen, plus home field (worth .007), more than enough to offset a slight edge (.002) for Bassitt over Morton.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 12:50:46 GMT -5
Tonight features what has to be the most important game # 159 (or 151 pre-expansion) in MLB history.
Whoever wins tonight also grabs the tie-breaker. If the Braves complete a sweep, their magic number is 1.
But if the Mets win, they're in virtual first with a magic number of 3. And they finish the season at home against the Nats while the Braves are in Miami, a better club, and the Braves actually have the worse of the pitching matchups in their games 1 and 2, although the offense and bullpens still make them favorites. But it's much easier to see the Braves winning just 2 of 3 than the Mets, which gives the Mets extra leeway if they grab the advantage.
Looking at offense and bullpens since the trade deadline, offenses are identical but the Braves have a .278 to .298 wOBA (average expected and actual) edge in the pen, plus home field (worth .007), more than enough to offset a slight edge (.002) for Bassitt over Morton.
The other thing at stake here is the playoff seeding. Whoever gets the first round bye also gets the winner of the Cards / Phillies or Brewers series in the NLDS. They'll be heavily favored to advance to the NLCS, where they'll have a real chance of upsetting the Dodgers. Whoever gets the WC, assuming they get past the Padres in round 1, gets the Dodgers in the division series, without being able to set up their rotation as the Dodgers can.
Because of the indefensible decision to give the third-best division winner the 3 seed, most of the playoff matchups are unfair. Most egreiously, you've got the Rays on the road for three games against the Guardians when they'd be 7 games ahead of them in a balanced schedule.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 5:24:42 GMT -5
Phillies have the tiebreaker over Brewers, so their magic number to clinch the WC is 1.
The seeding races are rather better. Only the Mets (assuming the Braves clinch) are locked in, to the 4 seed. All the trailing teams have the tiebreaker.
Mariners have the tiebreaker over Jays, so the Jays magic numbers for the 4 seed is 2.
Rays have tiebreaker over Mariners, so the Mariners magic number for the 5 seed is 3.
Phillies have the tiebreaker over Padres, so the Padres magic number for the 5 seed is 3.
Padres have the breaker over the Brewers, so if the Brewers pull a miracle they'll be the 6 seed.
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Post by bucksmatthew on Oct 3, 2022 10:20:43 GMT -5
Nothing earth shattering, but a nice recap of how the Astros developed their current rotation....https://theathletic.com/3633805/2022/09/29/gammons-astros-pitching-staff-value/
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 3, 2022 23:12:29 GMT -5
Joe Girardi to Rob Thomson ended up being one of the more important in-season managerial upgrades in awhile. Added benefit for the Joe Morgan-ness of it, 59-year-old baseball lifer who wasn't really seriously considered manager material gets the interim gig and just runs with it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2022 1:50:51 GMT -5
All of the current 5 and 6 seeds except the Phillies should be tanking their final series, and then explaining that they had no choice because the 6 seed is hugely better to have than the 5. Phillies should start tanking now that they've clinched.
AL: 6 plays Guardians and then the Yankees; 5 get the Blue Jays then the Astros.
NL: 6 plays the Cardinals and then the Braves; 5 gets the Mets and then the Dodgers.
And it's not like nobody could see this coming. At least one runner-up has had a better record the the weakest division winner in 21 of the 25 seasons with three divisions. 39% of all runners-up have done that, and 7% have tied the worst division champ, and more than half of those would have won a proper tie-breaker (record of the whole division in games outside).
In the AL, the Mariners and Rays both lost their game 1. Padres won theirs. Rays didn't seem to be trying too hard to win, with Bruyan (41 OPS+) leading off and Helget (6.75 ERA) pitching the rest of the way; both were added to the roster for this series.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 4, 2022 9:13:44 GMT -5
All of the current 5 and 6 seeds except the Phillies should be tanking their final series, and then explaining that they had no choice because the 6 seed is hugely better to have than the 5. Phillies should start tanking now that they've clinched.
AL: 6 plays Guardians and then the Yankees; 5 get the Blue Jays then the Astros.
NL: 6 plays the Cardinals and then the Braves; 5 gets the Mets and then the Dodgers.
And it's not like nobody could see this coming. At least one runner-up has had a better record the the weakest division winner in 21 of the 25 seasons with three divisions. 39% of all runners-up have done that, and 7% have tied the worst division champ, and more than half of those would have won a proper tie-breaker (record of the whole division in games outside).
In the AL, the Mariners and Rays both lost their game 1. Padres won theirs. Rays didn't seem to be trying too hard to win, with Bruyan (41 OPS+) leading off and Helget (6.75 ERA) pitching the rest of the way; both were added to the roster for this series.
And (as you know) the records understate the difference, since the weakest division winner almost by definition plays in a weak division, and the best runner-up almost by definition plays in a strong division. It's almost always going to be the case under this format that it'll be better to be the 6 seed than the 5. And it'll often be better to be the 2 than the 1.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 4, 2022 21:25:05 GMT -5
I just hope they start pushing expansion as a 32-team league should create four 8-team divisions where the division winners get byes and then the 4 best at-large teams play in the opening round.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 5, 2022 7:33:35 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 5, 2022 10:03:28 GMT -5
I’d sell it, it’s life-changing money.
Yankees should honestly just pay for it and make sure Judge gets it
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 5, 2022 10:42:06 GMT -5
I just hope they start pushing expansion as a 32-team league should create four 8-team divisions where the division winners get byes and then the 4 best at-large teams play in the opening round. So would the top two seeds get double-byes, then? You can't have a field of 8 with four byes without it. I'm not sure if this is a serious suggestion or not, but they'd obviously never increase the number of teams only to slash the number of teams that can make the playoffs.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Oct 7, 2022 13:02:37 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 7, 2022 13:07:06 GMT -5
Only abuse is Maddon thinking a mohawk is the solution to turning around a season where you have 2 of the best players in baseball history at your disposal. If not for a mid-game rain delay in the WS, Maddon has a totally different managerial history
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2022 19:44:41 GMT -5
Only abuse is Maddon thinking a mohawk is the solution to turning around a season where you have 2 of the best players in baseball history at your disposal. If not for a mid-game rain delay in the WS, Maddon has a totally different managerial history He had 2 superstars and 23 mediocrities. That's not a team. That's on the GM, not the manager.
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