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The Future Of Center Field
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Post by incandenza on May 23, 2022 13:07:23 GMT -5
Seems like a fair time to remind everyone that we set the forum up such that if you type Kiké without the accent, Proboards will add it. In fact I just tested it here. For those who understandably may be skittish about typing it. I prefer Kique (spelled just like Enrique). But I guess everyone gets that there's no malicious intention.
From a technical point of view, there shouldn't even be an accent if the first syllable is meant to be the dominant syllable, which is the only way I've heard it pronounced -- KEE-kay. With the accent, it becomes "kee-KAY". I'm guessing the accent was added in America so it wouldn't look like it does without the accent. Would have been just as easy to change the spelling to Kique.
Of course, Kiké is originally from America - just not a part of it that has congessional representation.
But yes, that's exactly why the accent was added. I sort of like 'Kique' myself but that would probably baffle even more people's attempts at pronunciation.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on May 23, 2022 14:14:16 GMT -5
Seems like a fair time to remind everyone that we set the forum up such that if you type Kiké without the accent, Proboards will add it. In fact I just tested it here. For those who understandably may be skittish about typing it. I prefer Kique (spelled just like Enrique). But I guess everyone gets that there's no malicious intention.
From a technical point of view, there shouldn't even be an accent if the first syllable is meant to be the dominant syllable, which is the only way I've heard it pronounced -- KEE-kay. With the accent, it becomes "kee-KAY". I'm guessing the accent was added in America so it wouldn't look like it does without the accent. Would have been just as easy to change the spelling to Kique.
Quique is a very common nickname for Enrique, maybe the most common. I did not know Kique exists but I looked it up and it does.
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Post by notstarboard on May 23, 2022 15:08:05 GMT -5
His mutual option comes with an $8m buyout, so it's essentially a $4m decision for Chaim. Obviously JBJ would count as $12m against the CBT but for all intents and purposes, the $8m is a sunk cost. I think I've seen conflicting reports on what jbj would cost against the CBT next year. Are we sure he'd cost 12 million against it next year if they take the option? I would love clarification on this as well. I've posted a handful of times that I would expect his CBT hit to only be $4 million, but so far I haven't had anyone confidently confirm or deny.
If we refer to Spotrac, JBJ's "2 year / $24 million" contract with the Brewers, and now Boston, looks like this: 2021: $6.5 million 2022: $9.5 million player option, $6.5 million buyout. JBJ picked up this option.
2023: $12 million mutual option, $8 million buyout
Despite his lower base salary, JBJ's luxury tax salary in both 2021 and 2022 was $12 million. This is because his $8 million buyout in 2023, which is also guaranteed money, must be priced into his luxury tax hit. As far as I know, luxury tax salary is based on AAV for the entire contract, and AAV is determined based on guaranteed money.
In theory, since $8 million of his $12 million salary has already counted against the luxury tax from 2021-2022, that would leave us with a hit of $4 million for 2023. I'm pretty sure this is how things work, but I could be wrong, especially if something changed in the new CBA. That said, it wouldn't make any sense for him to have a $12 million luxury tax salary in 2021, 2022, and 2023 while only making a total of $28 million ($9.33 million per year) over that span.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2022 15:33:11 GMT -5
It's definitely $4m. Where are you reading otherwise?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 23, 2022 17:21:16 GMT -5
I think I've seen conflicting reports on what jbj would cost against the CBT next year. Are we sure he'd cost 12 million against it next year if they take the option? I would love clarification on this as well. I've posted a handful of times that I would expect his CBT hit to only be $4 million, but so far I haven't had anyone confidently confirm or deny.
If we refer to Spotrac, JBJ's "2 year / $24 million" contract with the Brewers, and now Boston, looks like this: 2021: $6.5 million 2022: $9.5 million player option, $6.5 million buyout. JBJ picked up this option.
2023: $12 million mutual option, $8 million buyout
Despite his lower base salary, JBJ's luxury tax salary in both 2021 and 2022 was $12 million. This is because his $8 million buyout in 2023, which is also guaranteed money, must be priced into his luxury tax hit. As far as I know, luxury tax salary is based on AAV for the entire contract, and AAV is determined based on guaranteed money.
In theory, since $8 million of his $12 million salary has already counted against the luxury tax from 2021-2022, that would leave us with a hit of $4 million for 2023. I'm pretty sure this is how things work, but I could be wrong, especially if something changed in the new CBA. That said, it wouldn't make any sense for him to have a $12 million luxury tax salary in 2021, 2022, and 2023 while only making a total of $28 million ($9.33 million per year) over that span.
That doesn't make any sense to me but I'm happy to defer to people who know how it works. To me, a $12m salary in 2023 should count $12m against the threshold, regardless of whether part of it could've been a buyout if the option wasn't exercised.
If the 2023 buyout counts against the 2022 threshold, then that seems like a good way around the CBT. For example, say the Sox know that they need to get under the threshold in 2025 to reset their penalties, with Sale, Paxton, and others coming off the books. Why not sign FAs that they like through 2025 but make most of their 2025 salaries buyouts (e.g. $20m salary with a $19m buyout). Then the buyout amount should count against the 2024 threshold, right? Only $1m against 2025 threshold, which helps you get under.
If it took me 30 seconds to think of this (and 5 minutes to type it), I would think every team is already doing something like this but I'm not aware of any contracts the Sox have done like this.
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Post by notstarboard on May 23, 2022 19:21:03 GMT -5
I would love clarification on this as well. I've posted a handful of times that I would expect his CBT hit to only be $4 million, but so far I haven't had anyone confidently confirm or deny.
If we refer to Spotrac, JBJ's "2 year / $24 million" contract with the Brewers, and now Boston, looks like this: 2021: $6.5 million 2022: $9.5 million player option, $6.5 million buyout. JBJ picked up this option.
2023: $12 million mutual option, $8 million buyout
Despite his lower base salary, JBJ's luxury tax salary in both 2021 and 2022 was $12 million. This is because his $8 million buyout in 2023, which is also guaranteed money, must be priced into his luxury tax hit. As far as I know, luxury tax salary is based on AAV for the entire contract, and AAV is determined based on guaranteed money.
In theory, since $8 million of his $12 million salary has already counted against the luxury tax from 2021-2022, that would leave us with a hit of $4 million for 2023. I'm pretty sure this is how things work, but I could be wrong, especially if something changed in the new CBA. That said, it wouldn't make any sense for him to have a $12 million luxury tax salary in 2021, 2022, and 2023 while only making a total of $28 million ($9.33 million per year) over that span.
That doesn't make any sense to me but I'm happy to defer to people who know how it works. To me, a $12m salary in 2023 should count $12m against the threshold, regardless of whether part of it could've been a buyout if the option wasn't exercised.
If the 2023 buyout counts against the 2022 threshold, then that seems like a good way around the CBT. For example, say the Sox know that they need to get under the threshold in 2025 to reset their penalties, with Sale, Paxton, and others coming off the books. Why not sign FAs that they like through 2025 but make most of their 2025 salaries buyouts (e.g. $20m salary with a $19m buyout). Then the buyout amount should count against the 2024 threshold, right? Only $1m against 2025 threshold, which helps you get under.
If it took me 30 seconds to think of this (and 5 minutes to type it), I would think every team is already doing something like this but I'm not aware of any contracts the Sox have done like this.
Yeah, I see that logic. I know the new CBA dictates that luxury tax hits be recalculated when a player is traded which, if I'm right about JBJ, would help prevent richer teams from flexing their financial muscle by buying up contracts like this as a way of finding value against the luxury tax. In theory that wasn't in effect when JBJ was acquired, though. At any rate, redsoxpayroll and Spotrac are agreed that JBJ's luxury tax salary this year is $12 million. That wouldn't make sense unless his buyout is being priced in. The following ESPN article confirms the $6.5 million 2021 salary and $9.5 million 2022 salary too. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31027993/milwaukee-brewers-officially-announce-signing-jackie-bradley-jrThe only question is whether the mutual option essentially results in the buyout being double counted for the luxury tax.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2022 20:08:17 GMT -5
IMO, from the moves Bloom has made so far, my guess is that JBJ will be with the Red Sox next year either as the fourth outfielder or starting in CF. He still is a tremendous outfielder, and if the Red Sox can acquire some offensive outfielder, then JBJ is very nice to have if only $4 million over not having him.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 24, 2022 2:05:30 GMT -5
IMO, from the moves Bloom has made so far, my guess is that JBJ will be with the Red Sox next year either as the fourth outfielder or starting in CF. He still is a tremendous outfielder, and if the Red Sox can acquire some offensive outfielder, then JBJ is very nice to have if only $4 million over not having him. With so much money coming off the books there’s no way we let him walk. JBJ is here to stay and i’m all for it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2022 9:02:04 GMT -5
I would love clarification on this as well. I've posted a handful of times that I would expect his CBT hit to only be $4 million, but so far I haven't had anyone confidently confirm or deny.
If we refer to Spotrac, JBJ's "2 year / $24 million" contract with the Brewers, and now Boston, looks like this: 2021: $6.5 million 2022: $9.5 million player option, $6.5 million buyout. JBJ picked up this option.
2023: $12 million mutual option, $8 million buyout Despite his lower base salary, JBJ's luxury tax salary in both 2021 and 2022 was $12 million. This is because his $8 million buyout in 2023, which is also guaranteed money, must be priced into his luxury tax hit. As far as I know, luxury tax salary is based on AAV for the entire contract, and AAV is determined based on guaranteed money.
In theory, since $8 million of his $12 million salary has already counted against the luxury tax from 2021-2022, that would leave us with a hit of $4 million for 2023. I'm pretty sure this is how things work, but I could be wrong, especially if something changed in the new CBA. That said, it wouldn't make any sense for him to have a $12 million luxury tax salary in 2021, 2022, and 2023 while only making a total of $28 million ($9.33 million per year) over that span.
That doesn't make any sense to me but I'm happy to defer to people who know how it works. To me, a $12m salary in 2023 should count $12m against the threshold, regardless of whether part of it could've been a buyout if the option wasn't exercised. If the 2023 buyout counts against the 2022 threshold, then that seems like a good way around the CBT. For example, say the Sox know that they need to get under the threshold in 2025 to reset their penalties, with Sale, Paxton, and others coming off the books. Why not sign FAs that they like through 2025 but make most of their 2025 salaries buyouts (e.g. $20m salary with a $19m buyout). Then the buyout amount should count against the 2024 threshold, right? Only $1m against 2025 threshold, which helps you get under. If it took me 30 seconds to think of this (and 5 minutes to type it), I would think every team is already doing something like this but I'm not aware of any contracts the Sox have done like this.
The point is so that you can't backload contracts to spread out a cap hit. It might make more sense to you if you think of it as guaranteed money over guaranteed years, which is what it is. While the chicanery you describe could, in theory, be used with your rules, teams could just do the same to get under the cap now. Sign a guy to a five-year deal, but backload all of the money into one year or something. No matter what system they picked, teams would be able to engage in some kind of CBT chicanery. For what it's worth, I'm told you'd be surprised how little teams pay attention to that sort of thing (which, to me, feels like it makes it an area even more ripe for exploitation by a smart FO).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 24, 2022 9:48:47 GMT -5
That doesn't make any sense to me but I'm happy to defer to people who know how it works. To me, a $12m salary in 2023 should count $12m against the threshold, regardless of whether part of it could've been a buyout if the option wasn't exercised. If the 2023 buyout counts against the 2022 threshold, then that seems like a good way around the CBT. For example, say the Sox know that they need to get under the threshold in 2025 to reset their penalties, with Sale, Paxton, and others coming off the books. Why not sign FAs that they like through 2025 but make most of their 2025 salaries buyouts (e.g. $20m salary with a $19m buyout). Then the buyout amount should count against the 2024 threshold, right? Only $1m against 2025 threshold, which helps you get under. If it took me 30 seconds to think of this (and 5 minutes to type it), I would think every team is already doing something like this but I'm not aware of any contracts the Sox have done like this.
The point is so that you can't backload contracts to spread out a cap hit. It might make more sense to you if you think of it as guaranteed money over guaranteed years, which is what it is. While the chicanery you describe could, in theory, be used with your rules, teams could just do the same to get under the cap now. Sign a guy to a five-year deal, but backload all of the money into one year or something. No matter what system they picked, teams would be able to engage in some kind of CBT chicanery. For what it's worth, I'm told you'd be surprised how little teams pay attention to that sort of thing (which, to me, feels like it makes it an area even more ripe for exploitation by a smart FO). Cool. So given that the Sox WILL need to get under the threshold in 2025 and given that Chaim definitely DOES come to this site incognito (I'm pretty sure he's Don Caballero), all I can say is "you're welcome, 'Don.'" I look for a bunch of three-year deals this off-season that have club options with outsized buyouts in the third year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 24, 2022 10:52:46 GMT -5
Crazy enough that it might work.
Maybe for the present of CF, maybe Kiqué and Refsnyder vs LHP and JBJ and Duran for RHP... of course, the problem with JBJ isn't L/R, it's home/away.
I`d hate to be the other half of a home/away split. Has this been done before? Listening to the penultimate pod with the boys talking about Duran as the position player to bring up when pitching staffs will be limited to 13 pitchers. Make him the road half of a JBJ home/road platoon.
Done and done.
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Post by incandenza on May 24, 2022 11:49:45 GMT -5
I`d hate to be the other half of a home/away split. Has this been done before? Listening to the penultimate pod with the boys talking about Duran as the position player to bring up when pitching staffs will be limited to 13 pitchers. Make him the road half of a JBJ home/road platoon.
Done and done.
Lol, his wRC+ splits this season are:
vs. L: 132 vs. R: 58
home: 149 away: 1
Obviously a bunch of tiny sample size silliness. These sorts of splits take thousands of PAs to normalize. I think you're right, though, that playing at Fenway is a more significant advantage for him than facing righties. For his career he's at:
vs. L: 82 vs. R: 87
home: 98 away: 75
This makes it all the more insane to use Arroyo in his place in Fenway's giant right field, where Arroyo's defense offers the greatest liability and his bat offers the least advantage over JBJ (if it offers any advantage at all). I might prefer Arroyo over JBJ in RF in Yankee Stadium when facing a lefty and in pretty much no other situation.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 24, 2022 12:28:43 GMT -5
I know this is about 2023, but the guy I'm really excited about is, at least, a couple years away. His name is Ceddanne Rafaela. Sure I love the top 4 or 5, but this guy is so intriguing. Just love that supplies outstanding defense and both short and center. He will, almost certainly, hit 20 plus homers and swipe 25 to 30 bases.
And THAT is on top of him being so skilled and instinctive at two of the most important defensive positions on the field. I'm hoping, at mid-season, that Ceddanne gets promoted to Portland. He is my new blinky.
Actually...the players in Portland all better start looking behind them. Love following Greenville and Salem this year.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 24, 2022 12:50:30 GMT -5
I know this is about 2023, but the guy I'm really excited about is, at least, a couple years away. His name is Ceddanne Rafaela. Sure I love the top 4 or 5, but this guy is so intriguing. Just love that supplies outstanding defense and both short and center. He will, almost certainly, hit 20 plus homers and swipe 25 to 30 bases. And THAT is on top of him being so skilled and instinctive at two of the most important defensive positions on the field. I'm hoping, at mid-season, that Ceddanne gets promoted to Portland. He is my new blinky. Actually...the players in Portland all better start looking behind them. Love following Greenville and Salem this year. Rafaela is interesting for sure and definitely seems to have the floor of a major league bench piece with his ability to apparently play almost every position above average defensively but id pump the breaks on saying he certainly will hit 20 hrs and swipe 25+ bags. By my count I see 10 players in the MLB to have done that last season. That's really dang hard to do. I'm not saying he can't but I'd imagine it's unlikely he does.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 24, 2022 14:10:12 GMT -5
I know this is about 2023, but the guy I'm really excited about is, at least, a couple years away. His name is Ceddanne Rafaela. Sure I love the top 4 or 5, but this guy is so intriguing. Just love that supplies outstanding defense and both short and center. He will, almost certainly, hit 20 plus homers and swipe 25 to 30 bases. And THAT is on top of him being so skilled and instinctive at two of the most important defensive positions on the field. I'm hoping, at mid-season, that Ceddanne gets promoted to Portland. He is my new blinky. Actually...the players in Portland all better start looking behind them. Love following Greenville and Salem this year. He doesn’t need a nickname or last name. Just Ceddanne! One name player like a Brazilian soccer player.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 24, 2022 16:17:11 GMT -5
I know this is about 2023, but the guy I'm really excited about is, at least, a couple years away. His name is Ceddanne Rafaela. Sure I love the top 4 or 5, but this guy is so intriguing. Just love that supplies outstanding defense and both short and center. He will, almost certainly, hit 20 plus homers and swipe 25 to 30 bases. And THAT is on top of him being so skilled and instinctive at two of the most important defensive positions on the field. I'm hoping, at mid-season, that Ceddanne gets promoted to Portland. He is my new blinky. Actually...the players in Portland all better start looking behind them. Love following Greenville and Salem this year. Rafaela is interesting for sure and definitely seems to have the floor of a major league bench piece with his ability to apparently play almost every position above average defensively but id pump the breaks on saying he certainly will hit 20 hrs and swipe 25+ bags. By my count I see 10 players in the MLB to have done that last season. That's really dang hard to do. I'm not saying he can't but I'd imagine it's unlikely he does. Also, how many 5'8" guys are consistent 20+ homer per year threats? We all know one, but him even developing reasonable MLB power would be a huge win.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,830
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 24, 2022 17:35:29 GMT -5
Rafaela is interesting for sure and definitely seems to have the floor of a major league bench piece with his ability to apparently play almost every position above average defensively but id pump the breaks on saying he certainly will hit 20 hrs and swipe 25+ bags. By my count I see 10 players in the MLB to have done that last season. That's really dang hard to do. I'm not saying he can't but I'd imagine it's unlikely he does. Also, how many 5'8" guys are consistent 20+ homer per year threats? We all know one, but him even developing reasonable MLB power would be a huge win. OK. I'm talking about this year. I did not say MLB. But this guy is very interesting. Love what he is doing now. Will it project into the majors? Who knows, but he has several skills that look well above average? He has made some great strides.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 10, 2022 10:00:29 GMT -5
I am ready to make Duran the full time CF and bat him lead off. JBJ and Kiké in RF and Bobby and Franchy at 1st. Kiké can also spell Bogaerts and Story when needed. Let’s get this done Cora!
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 10, 2022 10:11:14 GMT -5
I am ready to make Duran the full time CF and bat him lead off. JBJ and Kiké in RF and Bobby and Franchy at 1st. Kiké can also spell Bogaerts and Story when needed. Let’s get this done Cora! 2 lefty’s this weekend. I don’t think we will see Duran until at least Tuesday
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2022 10:23:53 GMT -5
Well, the main problem is Duran can't handle CF defensively. He'd be roughly the fifth-best defensive outfielder on the roster.
I also don't understand the desire to get away from Kiké and JBJ.
Hernandez since 5/13: 113 PA, .262/.319/.427 JBJ since 5/3: 100 PA, .287/.323/.447
And both are far superior defenders to Duran. I'm in no rush to replace any of the three starting outfielders at the moment.
He also can't be recalled until June 16 or 21 (I forget if they extended it to 15 days or not) because he was optioned back to Worcester on June 6. Unless he's replacing someone going on the IL of course, but I think it's telling they went with Araúz to have coverage for SS while Xander is dinged up rather than bring Duran back when Kiké went on the IL.
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Post by notnickyorke on Jun 10, 2022 17:03:03 GMT -5
Well, the main problem is Duran can't handle CF defensively. He'd be roughly the fifth-best defensive outfielder on the roster. I also don't understand the desire to get away from Kiké and JBJ. Hernandez since 5/13: 113 PA, .262/.319/.427 JBJ since 5/3: 100 PA, .287/.323/.447 And both are far superior defenders to Duran. I'm in no rush to replace any of the three starting outfielders at the moment. He also can't be recalled until June 16 or 21 (I forget if they extended it to 15 days or not) because he was optioned back to Worcester on June 6. Unless he's replacing someone going on the IL of course, but I think it's telling they went with Araúz to have coverage for SS while Xander is dinged up rather than bring Duran back when Kiké went on the IL. Do you think the team has given up on him improving at center field? He still seems to play there everyday in AAA. I think I remember people criticizing Ellsbury similarly for his routes in center when he was coming up and he ended up pretty good defensively.
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Post by trajanacc on Jun 10, 2022 18:20:20 GMT -5
I am ready to make Duran the full time CF and bat him lead off. JBJ and Kiké in RF and Bobby and Franchy at 1st. Kiké can also spell Bogaerts and Story when needed. Let’s get this done Cora! Based on what exactly? He’s young and athletic? I’d prefer to play the guys on our roster who are better at batting and fielding, at least while we are still in the playoff discussion.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 10, 2022 20:25:44 GMT -5
According to Chris Cotillo (via MLBTR yesterday), Refsnyder is going to be called up, presumably for the Seattle series.
Haven't heard any confirmation from anyone else on that or any indication of the corresponding 40-man and 26-man roster moves.
According to MiLB.com's gamecast of the WooSox game, Refsnyder is listed as being on the Worcester bench, FWIW. He was not in the lineup tonight and did not play.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 10, 2022 20:31:19 GMT -5
Whitlock to IL with hip, Valdez recalled, Rob R up and Arauz DFA. Per Christopher Smith
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 10, 2022 20:42:36 GMT -5
I am ready to make Duran the full time CF and bat him lead off. JBJ and Kiké in RF and Bobby and Franchy at 1st. Kiké can also spell Bogaerts and Story when needed. LetâÂÂs get this done Cora! Based on what exactly? HeâÂÂs young and athletic? IâÂÂd prefer to play the guys on our roster who are better at batting and fielding, at least while we are still in the playoff discussion. based on what I seen from Kiké at the game i went to Tuesday defensively. Heâs good enough to bat leadoff and he looked bad in CF 3 separate plays. Horrible angles. Duran is the future. Iâm positive he can do what Kiké has done and actually swipe some bags and be a real leadoff hitter. Why not give him a real chance so we know what we have for this year and moving forward. Kiké isnât helping us win games.
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