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Post by iliketacos on Sept 3, 2022 1:02:12 GMT -5
Ceddanne will be the CF by the All-Star break next year. Mark my words. He is nothing like Middlebrooks. He is #3 in the system.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 3, 2022 9:53:08 GMT -5
Ceddanne will be the CF by the All-Star break next year. Mark my words. He is nothing like Middlebrooks. He is #3 in the system. And Middlebrooks was #1 above Xander
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Post by jdb on Sept 3, 2022 10:18:03 GMT -5
I think we resign Hernandez or see a Kiermaier type stop gap.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 3, 2022 11:16:03 GMT -5
I think we resign Hernandez or see a Kiermaier type stop gap. Yea for CF in my eyes it's basically Nimmo then drop off then Kiké then another drop off to the kiermaier types. I don't expect the sox to sign nimmo tho he's maybe the number 1 FA I want them to sign.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2022 6:55:14 GMT -5
Counting on Rafaela to be ready for mlb pitching in 2024 seems like betting big when you're drawing on an inside straight. Not impossible that it works out but the odds are low. More like a high outside straight+flush draw off the flop. Soxprospects is the low-man on Rafaela among scouting outlets and they have him expected in 2024. being 'ready for MLB pitching' means something different to everyone. If he can hit .230 with his defense and power, he's a solid starting CFer - I think that's reasonable. So the site that knows Rafaela the best is the low man? Ok. .230 average with like a 3% walk rate? Like a .260 OBP? Sounds great!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 4, 2022 11:40:30 GMT -5
More like a high outside straight+flush draw off the flop. Soxprospects is the low-man on Rafaela among scouting outlets and they have him expected in 2024. being 'ready for MLB pitching' means something different to everyone. If he can hit .230 with his defense and power, he's a solid starting CFer - I think that's reasonable. So the site that knows Rafaela the best is the low man? Ok. .230 average with like a 3% walk rate? Like a .260 OBP? Sounds great! It's fine for you to feel that he will be worse than all of the scouting sites, but I was just pointing out that is the case. He has a 6.2% walk rate right now in AAA. That would likely drop in MLB, but half is extreme. ~4.5% for a rookie year seems more reasonable. Assuming his defense is as good as advertised, if he can hit .230 with a 4.5% walk rate, that's a solid 2.5 WAR player. Not sexy, but still solid, and better than what the Red Sox received from CF this year (~0 fWAR). But keep in mind, we're looking at what would be his rookie year and assuming he doesn't improve his plate approach over the next 1+ year(s). The average CFer this year is posting a .234/.301/.384 slash line and I agree that he 's likely may not going to be quite that good his rookie year but if he's a plus defensive CFer, then he should still be an average starter with a ~.230/~.275/.400 line - that's pretty good for a rookie.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 4, 2022 12:11:25 GMT -5
Steamer's projection for a hypothetical rest of *this* season puts Rafaela at .250/.289/.430 (with a 4.3% walk rate), which would be good for a 97 wRC+. Why is this conversation about what he might do in 2024 anchored at a level so much worse than that?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 4, 2022 12:31:19 GMT -5
Steamer's projection for a hypothetical rest of *this* season puts Rafaela at .250/.289/.430 (with a 4.3% walk rate), which would be good for a 97 wRC+. Why is this conversation about what he might do in 2024 anchored at a level so much worse than that? My memory is that Steamer is an outlier in how bad it performs in the projection competitions. I couldn't find the articles I am basing this impression on after 10 minutes of looking though.
Rafaela's numbers are down a bit since then. Also, his batted ball data is apparently not as good as his regular stats, so I'd take the under on that projection. Still, there's a lot of room for him to be worse than those projections and also a very valuable player you're happy to start on a 700k salary.
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