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The Future Of Center Field
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 2, 2022 7:57:12 GMT -5
This doesn't get talked about at all. I see Kiké Hernandez getting a Qualified Offer from the Red Sox, with the hopes that he actually accepts it. A one year deal until Rafaela is promoted and ready. Seems like a win/win for both sides. A QO for Kiké would be more than the entirety of his 2 year deal with Boston. I think another 2 year deal with an option is what he would pull on the open market and be more desirable for Boston than a QO.
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Post by funkybuddha on Sept 2, 2022 8:19:09 GMT -5
This doesn't get talked about at all. I see Kiké Hernandez getting a Qualified Offer from the Red Sox, with the hopes that he actually accepts it. A one year deal until Rafaela is promoted and ready. Seems like a win/win for both sides. A QO for Kiké would be more than the entirety of his 2 year deal with Boston. I think another 2 year deal with an option is what he would pull on the open market and be more desirable for Boston than a QO. Two, possibly three, more years of Kiké is not desirable IMO.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 2, 2022 8:23:10 GMT -5
This doesn't get talked about at all. I see Kiké Hernandez getting a Qualified Offer from the Red Sox, with the hopes that he actually accepts it. A one year deal until Rafaela is promoted and ready. Seems like a win/win for both sides. A QO for Kiké would be more than the entirety of his 2 year deal with Boston. I think another 2 year deal with an option is what he would pull on the open market and be more desirable for Boston than a QO. Some posts recently on here are saying to throw out QOs like they're candy and i don't get it. In my mind Hernandez is not the guy to offer a QO to. There's a fair chance they can get him back on a 2 year deal worth the total of the QO. Maybe a bit more but 2 maybe 3 years at 20-30 mil is still better than 1 for 18-19 for a guy like Hernandez. I'd like Hernandez back since he's probably the 2nd best CF on the market behind Nimmo (who I could also see being a target). That's more due to the overall weakness of the FA class than it is on Hernandez being a great CF. When healthy he's probably a bit above average. Also say if cedanne is ready for the big leagues in 2024, Hernandez offers great positional versatility so it wouldn't clog up cedannes path if they signed Hernandez for 2-3 years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2022 8:55:16 GMT -5
A two-year deal for Kiké for the value of the one-year QO would be a stretch, never mind the QO itself. Not a guy I'd rely on to be more than a 1-2 WAR type.
Would be happy to have him back but a QO would be insanity.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 2, 2022 9:10:54 GMT -5
I think 2/11 would be fair for Kiké. You hope he returns that value in at least one of his seasons. He's never really had back-to-back good seasons and entering his 30's I don't think he's going to get more than the 2/14 he got last time.
Realistically, the Sox have to do more than bring Kiké back. I'm hoping for something big; Bloom is going to be Judged by what he does this offseason.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 2, 2022 9:18:08 GMT -5
I think 2/11 would be fair for Kiké. You hope he returns that value in at least one of his seasons. He's never really had back-to-back good seasons and entering his 30's I don't think he's going to get more than the 2/14 he got last time. Realistically, the Sox have to do more than bring Kiké back. I'm hoping for something big; Bloom is going to be Judged by what he does this offseason. 2/11 seems perhaps a tad low to me but you have a point that he's not the most consistent and is entering his 30s plus a hip injury cost him a lot of time this year. A hip injury for a guy going into his 30s is a scary thought. They certainly need to do more for this OF than to solely bring back Kiké, hell I'd say they need to do more than just replace Kiké. They need a CF whether that's Kiké or not and they need a starting caliber COF as well.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 2, 2022 9:21:34 GMT -5
I think 2/11 would be fair for Kiké. You hope he returns that value in at least one of his seasons. He's never really had back-to-back good seasons and entering his 30's I don't think he's going to get more than the 2/14 he got last time. Realistically, the Sox have to do more than bring Kiké back. I'm hoping for something big; Bloom is going to be Judged by what he does this offseason. 2/11 seems perhaps a tad low to me but you have a point that he's not the most consistent and is entering his 30s plus a hip injury cost him a lot of time this year. A hip injury for a guy going into his 30s is a scary thought. They certainly need to do more for this OF than to solely bring back Kiké, hell I'd say they need to do more than just replace Kiké. They need a CF whether that's Kiké or not and they need a starting caliber COF as well. That's what I was thinking too, maybe a short supply of outfielders will drive his price up a little but the market got him 2/14 two years ago, I'm not sure why he would be worth more now two years older and another injury under his belt.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 2, 2022 10:39:20 GMT -5
A healthy Kiké gave the Sox a near 5 bWar season in 2021. 1 bWar in 2020 in 60 games. 2 bWar in in 2019. 3.5 bWar in 2018.
Take out 2022 and he's averaged 3 bWar since 2018. He would have had 3 bWar in a full 2020 season.
The outlier is the 2022 injury plagued season.
Kiké just turned 31, wouldn't want him on a multi-year contract.
With the QO being around 19 million, that's 6.3 million a win for Kiké, which is reasonable.
Add- While that's no longer a bargain, I don't see it being a unrealistic thing either. It's a one year deal paying exactly for his worth since 2018 (excluding his 2022 season). One year deal to keep a valuable CF, one of the most important positions in MLB.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 10:52:51 GMT -5
Kiké was cruising towards a huge contract before this season started. I have no idea how much his struggles this year can be excused by his injury, and how much his injury will negatively effect him going forward. It's not crazy to me that he gets a QO. One thing to note is that the demand for OFs is not going to be met by the supply this offseason.
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Post by seamus on Sept 2, 2022 11:11:47 GMT -5
QO would be an overpay in the Sox's current situation, but the quality of his outfield defense makes him one of the better options in free agency this offseason. JBJ previously got a 2/24 with arguably a dimmer future outlook, so I wouldn't be surprised if somebody would willing to offer 2/25 with some third-year options. I think I'd be okay with something along those lines given his defensive versatility, but I'd want that to be Plan B after Nimmo.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2022 11:49:23 GMT -5
Kiké was cruising towards a huge contract before this season started. I have no idea how much his struggles this year can be excused by his injury, and how much his injury will negatively effect him going forward. It's not crazy to me that he gets a QO. One thing to note is that the demand for OFs is not going to be met by the supply this offseason. Hernandez was heading towards a big contract if he proved last year wasn't a fluke. He hasn't.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2022 12:02:32 GMT -5
If Kiké had proven last year wasn't a fluke, he would have been in-line for something close to what JBJ signed with Milwaukee, or a bit more given inflations & increased payrolls. So 2/26 - maybe 3/39 as a stretch.
As Kiké failed to prove he is a full-time starting player, he's now 31 and considered an aging quality utility man with injury concerns.
His past 43 years he has been worth 0.7, 0.1 (0.3 accounting for shortened season), 4.1 and 0.1 fWAR. If you take away 2021, that's a guy fighting for a roster spot on a minimum deal.
Kiké would be by far the worst qualifying offer of all-time if it happened. I can see him getting 2/12 or 1/8. Maybe his medicals look good and he puts up a good last month to push it to ~2/16. Any more is just silliness.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2022 12:09:06 GMT -5
This doesn't get talked about at all. I see Kiké Hernandez getting a Qualified Offer from the Red Sox, with the hopes that he actually accepts it. A one year deal until Rafaela is promoted and ready. Seems like a win/win for both sides. Counting on Rafaela to be ready for mlb pitching in 2024 seems like betting big when you're drawing on an inside straight. Not impossible that it works out but the odds are low. More like a high outside straight+flush draw off the flop. Soxprospects is the low-man on Rafaela among scouting outlets and they have him expected in 2024. being 'ready for MLB pitching' means something different to everyone. If he can hit .230 with his defense and power, he's a solid starting CFer - I think that's reasonable.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 12:10:03 GMT -5
If Kiké had proven last year wasn't a fluke, he would have been in-line for something close to what JBJ signed with Milwaukee, or a bit more given inflations & increased payrolls. So 2/26 - maybe 3/39 as a stretch. His past 3 years he has been worth 0.7, 0.1 (0.3 accounting for shortened season), 4.1 and 0.1 fWAR. If you take away 2021, that's a guy fighting for a roster spot on a minimum deal. If Kiké had two consecutive 4 WAR seasons, he would get a lot more than 2/26. He'd be looking roughly as attractive as Brandon Nimmo. I have no idea why you would "take away 2021". How about you just add up all his performance, and then either give him bonus points for the 2022 injury if you think it's all better, or demerit points if you think it's a lasting concern.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,484
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Post by radiohix on Sept 2, 2022 12:28:20 GMT -5
This doesn't get talked about at all. I see Kiké Hernandez getting a Qualified Offer from the Red Sox, with the hopes that he actually accepts it. A one year deal until Rafaela is promoted and ready. Seems like a win/win for both sides. Counting on Rafaela to be ready for mlb pitching in 2024 seems like betting big when you're drawing on an inside straight. Not impossible that it works out but the odds are low. I'm curious what makes think that? He'll almost certainly start next year in AAA and he improved his hitting approach while making the jump from High A to AA. A full season in Worcester should get him ready for the show no?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2022 12:34:03 GMT -5
If Kiké had proven last year wasn't a fluke, he would have been in-line for something close to what JBJ signed with Milwaukee, or a bit more given inflations & increased payrolls. So 2/26 - maybe 3/39 as a stretch. His past 3 years he has been worth 0.7, 0.1 (0.3 accounting for shortened season), 4.1 and 0.1 fWAR. If you take away 2021, that's a guy fighting for a roster spot on a minimum deal. If Kiké had two consecutive 4 WAR seasons, he would get a lot more than 2/26. He'd be looking roughly as attractive as Brandon Nimmo. I have no idea why you would "take away 2021". How about you just add up all his performance, and then either give him bonus points for the 2022 injury if you think it's all better, or demerit points if you think it's a lasting concern. That's exactly what I did. A guy with 5 fWAR over 4 seasons doesn't get more than what I listed. Keep in mind, the market rate for fWAR isn't linear - position players who average below 2 fWAR per year do not come close to receiving equitable payment per fWAR. Brandon Neemo's fWAR per PA has been EXREMELY consistent over the past 6 years, he receives more of his value from offense and he's 2 years younger than Kiké. Even at 4 fWAR, which is more than Kiké simply showing that he's a starter (I was assuming 2.5-3 would be reasonable), he doesn't come close to Neemo. Here is Neemo's fWAR per 600 PA, and wRC+, over the past 6 seasons: 3.3, 5.4, 3.3, 4.3, 5.1, 4.3 (25.6 total) - 118, 148, 115, 149, 137, 125 Here is Kiké's fWAR per 600 PA, and wRC+, over the past 6 seasons: 2.2, 4.3, 0.9, 0.4, 4.2, 0.2 (12.2 total) - 92, 118, 86, 81, 109, 73 Kiké has not matched Neemo in even a single season over the past 6 years for either of these statistics. Both of these guys had been part time players, and had dealt with injuries, so I used fWAR per 600 PA and wRC+ as they are both qualitative statistics so we're dealing with an apples-to-apples comparison. These numbers overrate the contributions for each player, unless you are betting on them staying healthy and consistently starting over the course of their next contract (which seems more reasonable for Neemo than Kiké due to age and health) and dismiss platoon splits. I'm also a fan of Kiké and would like to see him brought back as a stop-gap CF/RF and utility man and hope we see another year like 2021.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 2, 2022 12:49:06 GMT -5
I would love to see Kiké come back and be used for the role he was made for. A super utility guy who can start for a period of time if a guy goes down.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 14:49:36 GMT -5
If Kiké had two consecutive 4 WAR seasons, he would get a lot more than 2/26. He'd be looking roughly as attractive as Brandon Nimmo. I have no idea why you would "take away 2021". How about you just add up all his performance, and then either give him bonus points for the 2022 injury if you think it's all better, or demerit points if you think it's a lasting concern. A guy with 5 fWAR over 4 seasons doesn't get more than what I listed. Brandon Neemo's fWAR per PA has been EXREMELY consistent over the past 6 years Performance more than 3 years back is close to irrelevant in to predicting future performance from batters. One side benefit to following this constraint is that you never get caught cherrypicking end points in an incoherent fashion.
You said that if Kiké proved his 4 WAR season wasn't a fluke, he'd get 2/26. I said he'd get a lot more than that. You countered by saying in this world where he didn't put up another 4 WAR season, he's worse than Brandon Nimmo. Okay.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2022 15:27:10 GMT -5
Kiké was cruising towards a huge contract before this season started. I have no idea how much his struggles this year can be excused by his injury, and how much his injury will negatively effect him going forward. It's not crazy to me that he gets a QO. One thing to note is that the demand for OFs is not going to be met by the supply this offseason. Hernandez was heading towards a big contract if he proved last year wasn't a fluke. He hasn't. Not only that, the injury he incurred has a relatively high prevalence of returning. He is aging, he had a career year last year, and he got hurt this year. People can extrapolate partial previous seasons out for a whole year, but performance almost never links up with those kinds of projections. To do the same when he was in a straight utility role is also similarly disingenuous. If anything, he should sign a lower-dollar, incentive-laden "show-me" contract that would pay him at best for being a 2 WAR player if he hits every incentive. Personally, I love his energy and his flexibility, but I hope he goes elsewhere if it means Cora would bat Kiké in the lead-off spot again if he stayed.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 2, 2022 15:30:05 GMT -5
If Kiké had proven last year wasn't a fluke, he would have been in-line for something close to what JBJ signed with Milwaukee, or a bit more given inflations & increased payrolls. So 2/26 - maybe 3/39 as a stretch. His past 3 years he has been worth 0.7, 0.1 (0.3 accounting for shortened season), 4.1 and 0.1 fWAR. If you take away 2021, that's a guy fighting for a roster spot on a minimum deal. If Kiké had two consecutive 4 WAR seasons, he would get a lot more than 2/26. He'd be looking roughly as attractive as Brandon Nimmo. I have no idea why you would "take away 2021". How about you just add up all his performance, and then either give him bonus points for the 2022 injury if you think it's all better, or demerit points if you think it's a lasting concern. Maybe because it was an outlier year in his age 30 season that was followed by an injury-riddled season at age 31? Just a guess.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 2, 2022 15:39:08 GMT -5
Personally, my opinion of Kiké's baseball abilities would change depending on if he had put up 0.5, or 4, or 10 WAR in 2021.
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Post by bosoxnation on Sept 2, 2022 17:38:19 GMT -5
I like Franchy out there.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,000
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Post by jimoh on Sept 2, 2022 17:51:16 GMT -5
Counting on Rafaela to be ready for mlb pitching in 2024 seems like betting big when you're drawing on an inside straight. Not impossible that it works out but the odds are low. I'm curious what makes think that? He'll almost certainly start next year in AAA and he improved his hitting approach while making the jump from High A to AA. A full season in Worcester should get him ready for the show no? He improved from a 4.8% walk rate to a 6.0 rate. Reports seem to indicate that he's improved his approach a bit but has a ways to go. Seems to me that he still could go either way. Seems like there's still a good chance that better pitchers could get him to swing at pitchers' pitches more than AA pitchers. Like Will Middlebrooks. No?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,484
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Post by radiohix on Sept 2, 2022 18:59:03 GMT -5
I'm curious what makes think that? He'll almost certainly start next year in AAA and he improved his hitting approach while making the jump from High A to AA. A full season in Worcester should get him ready for the show no? He improved from a 4.8% walk rate to a 6.0 rate. Reports seem to indicate that he's improved his approach a bit but has a ways to go. Seems to me that he still could go either way. Seems like there's still a good chance that better pitchers could get him to swing at pitchers' pitches more than AA pitchers. Like Will Middlebrooks. No? He also cut his K rate while facing better pitching and maintained XBH power in a lesser hitter freindly ballpark. Since the coaching staff made the well documented tweaks in his batting stance, he's been a well above average hitter while being very young for every level he played in. If he's striking out at 30% clip vs AAA pitching next year like WMB did. , I'll be skeptical about him making it to the majors in 2024 but we're not there yet.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 2, 2022 19:40:25 GMT -5
He improved from a 4.8% walk rate to a 6.0 rate. Reports seem to indicate that he's improved his approach a bit but has a ways to go. Seems to me that he still could go either way. Seems like there's still a good chance that better pitchers could get him to swing at pitchers' pitches more than AA pitchers. Like Will Middlebrooks. No? He also cut his K rate while facing better pitching and maintained XBH power in a lesser hitter freindly ballpark. Since the coaching staff made the well documented tweaks in his batting stance, he's been a well above average hitter while being very young for every level he played in. If he's striking out at 30% clip vs AAA pitching next year like WMB did. , I'll be skeptical about him making it to the majors in 2024 but we're not there yet. seems to be a strong consensus in the thread devoted to him that he’s made some progress but still has a ways to go. That’s where I stand. Exciting and promising but not a sure thing.
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