SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by grandsalami on May 17, 2023 21:23:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on May 17, 2023 22:18:58 GMT -5
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
|
Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2023 12:05:56 GMT -5
Pivetta in relief vs. as a starter, xwOBA / wOBA (PA)
.270 / .245 (33) .396 / .378 (183)
For a point of comparison, Winck is .267 / .250.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on May 29, 2023 12:54:15 GMT -5
Getting that extra couple ticks on his fastball is a big deal for him imo
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2023 12:36:08 GMT -5
Kenley Jansen: 28.2 IP, 3.01 FIP, 1.0 fWAR Chris Martin: 26.0 IP, 2.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Can someone make sense of these numbers for me? How can Jansen possibly have a bigger fWAR total with a considerably higher FIP and only 10% more IP?
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Jul 3, 2023 12:47:51 GMT -5
Joe Jacques circle of trust? ⭕️
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jul 3, 2023 12:50:41 GMT -5
Kenley Jansen: 28.2 IP, 3.01 FIP, 1.0 fWAR Chris Martin: 26.0 IP, 2.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Can someone make sense of these numbers for me? How can Jansen possibly have a bigger fWAR total with a considerably higher FIP and only 10% more IP?
WAR treats infield flies as strikeouts, but FIP does not look at infield flies. Jansen's infield fly % is really high. Also they just multiply a reliever's WAR by his leverage index (after regressing half-way to the mean, so 1.8 because 1.4 for instance), and Jansen has a higher leverage index.
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 3, 2023 12:53:02 GMT -5
Kenley Jansen: 28.2 IP, 3.01 FIP, 1.0 fWAR Chris Martin: 26.0 IP, 2.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Can someone make sense of these numbers for me? How can Jansen possibly have a bigger fWAR total with a considerably higher FIP and only 10% more IP?
Tooo many stats I can't undersand ! These below though, I get ! One pitches the 8th, one the 9th. The one who pitches the 8th has been far and away the better pitcher. Jansen 3.45 era 1.43 WHIP 0 Holds 20 saves Martin 1.73 ea .96 WHIP 13 Holds 2 saves
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2023 13:01:53 GMT -5
Kenley Jansen: 28.2 IP, 3.01 FIP, 1.0 fWAR Chris Martin: 26.0 IP, 2.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Can someone make sense of these numbers for me? How can Jansen possibly have a bigger fWAR total with a considerably higher FIP and only 10% more IP?
WAR treats infield flies as strikeouts, but FIP does not look at infield flies. Jansen's infield fly % is really high. Also they just multiply a reliever's WAR by his leverage index (after regressing half-way to the mean, so 1.8 because 1.4 for instance), and Jansen has a higher leverage index. Ohh, okay, I thought fWAR just extrapolated directly from FIP with a baseline adjustment for relievers.
Seems kinda weird that fWAR "corrects" in favor of Jansen for pitching in higher leverage when he has a WPA of -0.32 and Martin's is 1.43. But whatever, WAR is clearly just a clumsy tool for relievers.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 3, 2023 13:03:33 GMT -5
Kenley Jansen: 28.2 IP, 3.01 FIP, 1.0 fWAR Chris Martin: 26.0 IP, 2.44 FIP, 0.7 fWAR
Can someone make sense of these numbers for me? How can Jansen possibly have a bigger fWAR total with a considerably higher FIP and only 10% more IP?
Tooo many stats I can't undersand ! These below though, I get ! One pitches the 8th, one the 9th. The one who pitches the 8th has been far and away the better pitcher. Jansen 3.45 era 1.43 WHIP 0 Holds 20 saves Martin 1.73 ea .96 WHIP 13 Holds 2 saves If I kept a record of my cardiac condition while the two were pitching, that stat would definitely favor Martin as well.
|
|
|
Post by rhswanzey on Jul 3, 2023 15:54:14 GMT -5
It’s interesting looking back on the projected bullpen depth charts upthread from Sep/Oct 2022. A couple people mentioned Wincowski in a long role, sometimes while listing way more than 13 pitchers on the staff. But for the most part, none of the names mentioned by anybody are even on the active roster right now.
This organization is simultaneously doing better with upper minors pitching depth than it has lately, and short of the stable of arms with options it needs to feed in perpetuity. It also goes to show how helpful it is to have a multiyear anchor or two that stays off the IL.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2023 3:12:51 GMT -5
Both Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter have pitched better this year than either Richart Bleieir or Joely Rodriguez did last year. I'll have numbers for Joe Jacqeues and Brennan Bernadino tomorrow.
I had some questions about the Bleieir signing because he was coming off an off year at age 36. I did a trust-the-F.O. thing and figured they had reason to believe this was not the beginning of a decline. But he hasn't been good at all this year, by numbers or eyeballs.
Rodriguez is due to come off the IL any day now, and Whitlock is likely next. Justin Gazar's been fairly terrible (.374 / .321 xwOBA / wOBO, -0.63 WPA despite pitching in just .58 Leverage} and Tayler Scott has pitched just once, in garbage time, so those two are likely to be optioned, even though that will leave them with 5 LHR.
Whether it's worth giving Bleieir another chance will depend, I think, in how well Walter and Jacques pitch from now until Bleieir is ready, and how good the latter looks in his rehab.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jul 8, 2023 6:38:06 GMT -5
Both Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter have pitched better this year than either Richart Bleieir or Joely Rodriguez did last year. I'll have numbers for Joe Jacqeues and Brennan Bernadino tomorrow.
I had some questions about the Bleieir signing because he was coming off an off year at age 36. I did a trust-the-F.O. thing and figured they had reason to believe this was not the beginning of a decline. But he hasn't been good at all this year, by numbers or eyeballs.
Rodriguez is due to come off the IL any day now, and Whitlock is likely next. Justin Gazar's been fairly terrible (.374 / .321 xwOBA / wOBO, -0.63 WPA despite pitching in just .58 Leverage} and Tayler Scott has pitched just once, in garbage time, so those two are likely to be optioned, even though that will leave them with 5 LHR.
Whether it's worth giving Bleieir another chance will depend, I think, in how well Walter and Jacques pitch from now until Bleieir is ready, and how good the latter looks in his rehab.
Bleier wasn’t a signing he was a swap for Barnes, the FO didnt have to think he would be worth the money just that he’d be more likely to be worth it than Barnes would
|
|
|