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Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2023 11:03:25 GMT -5
The consensus is the Red Sox have a middle of the pack farm system which only ranks as well as it does because the system has a handful of top 100 prospects. Outside the top ten the system is described as unimpressive with analysts uncertain as to whether prospects should be ranked where they are or maybe should not even be in the top 60. So how is it the Sox got drilled during the Rule 5 draft with the pitchers they lost sticking on MLB 26 man rosters and now anxiety over who to keep on the 40 man? Shouldn't those teams with amazing and deep farm systems have the 40 man rosters where MLB quality arms and position players are being cut because there is so much MLB ready or 40 man talent they can't keep it all? Is this the consensus? I know Keith Law implied it. Is that what others have said? Just a year ago they were said to have great depth but a somewhat underwhelming set of top prospects...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2023 14:17:12 GMT -5
The consensus is the Red Sox have a middle of the pack farm system which only ranks as well as it does because the system has a handful of top 100 prospects. Outside the top ten the system is described as unimpressive with analysts uncertain as to whether prospects should be ranked where they are or maybe should not even be in the top 60. So how is it the Sox got drilled during the Rule 5 draft with the pitchers they lost sticking on MLB 26 man rosters and now anxiety over who to keep on the 40 man? Shouldn't those teams with amazing and deep farm systems have the 40 man rosters where MLB quality arms and position players are being cut because there is so much MLB ready or 40 man talent they can't keep it all? Short answer: strength of farm system, limited to an arbitrary definition of who does and does not count and at any rate subjective, is a different thing from depth on the 40-man roster and number of players in the organization eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. I also don't agree they got "drilled" in Rule 5. I think they made a mistake not protecting Ward, correctly determined that losing Politi wasn't worth using a 40-man spot on, and had a uniquely weird situation with Song that probably wouldn't even have been a thing if it weren't for Dave Dombrowski having specific experience with the player from being the PBOps here.
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Post by patford on Mar 26, 2023 14:30:55 GMT -5
The consensus is the Red Sox have a middle of the pack farm system which only ranks as well as it does because the system has a handful of top 100 prospects. Outside the top ten the system is described as unimpressive with analysts uncertain as to whether prospects should be ranked where they are or maybe should not even be in the top 60. So how is it the Sox got drilled during the Rule 5 draft with the pitchers they lost sticking on MLB 26 man rosters and now anxiety over who to keep on the 40 man? Shouldn't those teams with amazing and deep farm systems have the 40 man rosters where MLB quality arms and position players are being cut because there is so much MLB ready or 40 man talent they can't keep it all? Is this the consensus? I know Keith Law implied it. Is that what others have said? Just a year ago they were said to have great depth but a somewhat underwhelming set of top prospects... That seemed to me to be the consensus on the recent podcast: Podcast Ep. #276: Rankings Jamboree with Jim Callis and Alex Speier. The Sox are said to have a number of top twenty players and a quite large number of top 30 players who are sort of a "meh." Teams with loaded farm systems can protect 40 players. 26 of those spots are taken up by the MLB roster which leaves 14 prospects. Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man Roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons. Players drafted when they were 18 or 19 are going to be primarily IFA and high school graduates. That helps some as the Sox don't have to protect a Perales or a Bleis or Rodriguez-Cruz yet.
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Post by patford on Mar 26, 2023 18:39:45 GMT -5
The consensus is the Red Sox have a middle of the pack farm system which only ranks as well as it does because the system has a handful of top 100 prospects. Outside the top ten the system is described as unimpressive with analysts uncertain as to whether prospects should be ranked where they are or maybe should not even be in the top 60. So how is it the Sox got drilled during the Rule 5 draft with the pitchers they lost sticking on MLB 26 man rosters and now anxiety over who to keep on the 40 man? Shouldn't those teams with amazing and deep farm systems have the 40 man rosters where MLB quality arms and position players are being cut because there is so much MLB ready or 40 man talent they can't keep it all? Short answer: strength of farm system, limited to an arbitrary definition of who does and does not count and at any rate subjective, is a different thing from depth on the 40-man roster and number of players in the organization eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. I also don't agree they got "drilled" in Rule 5. I think they made a mistake not protecting Ward, correctly determined that losing Politi wasn't worth using a 40-man spot on, and had a uniquely weird situation with Song that probably wouldn't even have been a thing if it weren't for Dave Dombrowski having specific experience with the player from being the PBOps here. There's also Seabold who might just turn out to be a guy who needed more time to fully recover from injury. Ward is the one I don't get and I'm very deferential towards Bloom and people who know better than I do. The fact is I know nothing about Ward other than I like his name (ridiculous I know) and have seen his scouting reports. I just can't imagine keeping Ort, Kelly, or Murphy over Ward. I sort of get the "too many RHP with a Brian Johnson upside" argument when it comes to Murphy (LHP) and Ward (RHP) but Ort? Or even Kelly? I'd ask how many teams had three starting pitchers taken in the Rule 5 draft and how many team had all three of them make the MLB roster (assuming it's 100% certain the Phillies will do everything possible to keep Song)?
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Post by rhswanzey on Mar 26, 2023 19:15:24 GMT -5
I think it’s as simple as they were bearish on Ward developing into a full time starter. If you’re projecting him as a reliever, and you rank the other 40-man relievers alongside him on a combination of potential late inning stuff and how likely he is to help in 2023, he’s towards the bottom of that list, no?
I think the 40-man decision they might really like back right now is Abreu. I like him, outfield is an organizational weakness, and I think he’s got a chance to be a very useful player as early as 2024. But it’s a lot harder to carry position players via rule 5 with a four man bench, and he might not have quite the upside to justify trying. When I was going through the 40-man trying to figure out what the heck I’d do if I needed a second spot after Ort, that’s one that stuck out as a spot we would love to have right now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 26, 2023 21:04:50 GMT -5
The Red Sox used 54 players last year, all of whom were on the 40-man roster at some point. The 40-man is for 26-man players, then depth, then prospects. Ideally the depth and prospects will overlap, but clearly the Red Sox did not think that was the case with Ward.
Only time will tell if not protecting Ward was a mistake, but as everyone on this forum knew Ward would be taken in the rule-5 draft, and he was taken with the first pick by a team with a long term plan for him, the Red Sox have to know his selection was likely.
Kelly made the Red Sox roster out of camp so protecting him was definitely the right move. Based on his recent performance keeping Ort seems like a mistake, but we can't say that definitively unless he's shortly released (which is possible). Even then, it could be argued that they didn't know which of Kelly/Ort would win the spot, and keeping both was worth it.
I'm still not a fan of protecting Abreu (because I don't think he offers 2023 depth and don't think he would have been picked), but we can't know for sure that he worldview have been picked and don't know if he will work out - once again, time will tell.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 27, 2023 7:33:56 GMT -5
Short answer: strength of farm system, limited to an arbitrary definition of who does and does not count and at any rate subjective, is a different thing from depth on the 40-man roster and number of players in the organization eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. I also don't agree they got "drilled" in Rule 5. I think they made a mistake not protecting Ward, correctly determined that losing Politi wasn't worth using a 40-man spot on, and had a uniquely weird situation with Song that probably wouldn't even have been a thing if it weren't for Dave Dombrowski having specific experience with the player from being the PBOps here. There's also Seabold who might just turn out to be a guy who needed more time to fully recover from injury. Ward is the one I don't get and I'm very deferential towards Bloom and people who know better than I do. The fact is I know nothing about Ward other than I like his name (ridiculous I know) and have seen his scouting reports. I just can't imagine keeping Ort, Kelly, or Murphy over Ward. I sort of get the "too many RHP with a Brian Johnson upside" argument when it comes to Murphy (LHP) and Ward (RHP) but Ort? Or even Kelly? I'd ask how many teams had three starting pitchers taken in the Rule 5 draft and how many team had all three of them make the MLB roster (assuming it's 100% certain the Phillies will do everything possible to keep Song)? Seabold was designated for assignment and traded to Colorado for cash or a PTBNL in January.
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 27, 2023 7:55:55 GMT -5
Alfaro's upward mobility deadline was the 25th. Tapia's is today.
I hope they both goon the 40-man.
Any news?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 27, 2023 8:27:05 GMT -5
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 27, 2023 8:45:42 GMT -5
Great -- thank you.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Mar 27, 2023 8:57:54 GMT -5
So whether Ort is the last man in the bullpen, or is DFAed to get a 2nd LHRP in the pen, there is still no way to get Tapia to Boston without a trade or an (unlikely) DFA. The only thing that's unclear is whether he will consent to play in Worcester for a month or two. Right?
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2023 9:05:56 GMT -5
They could just go with one fewer pitcher on the 26 man roster. I don't expect them to do that though
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 27, 2023 9:53:12 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2023 10:33:05 GMT -5
Ort is prob not the best guy facing waivers this week, so it makes sense to try and sneak him through while getting one of those better guys facing waivers. My guess is Ort wins the job if they don't go outside the org.
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Post by backwardsk on Mar 27, 2023 10:36:23 GMT -5
Probably a good idea to bring in another arm, possibly LH arm via waivers. Rodriguez sounds like he'll be out for a while.
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Post by patford on Mar 27, 2023 11:38:10 GMT -5
There's also Seabold who might just turn out to be a guy who needed more time to fully recover from injury. Ward is the one I don't get and I'm very deferential towards Bloom and people who know better than I do. The fact is I know nothing about Ward other than I like his name (ridiculous I know) and have seen his scouting reports. I just can't imagine keeping Ort, Kelly, or Murphy over Ward. I sort of get the "too many RHP with a Brian Johnson upside" argument when it comes to Murphy (LHP) and Ward (RHP) but Ort? Or even Kelly? I'd ask how many teams had three starting pitchers taken in the Rule 5 draft and how many team had all three of them make the MLB roster (assuming it's 100% certain the Phillies will do everything possible to keep Song)? Seabold was designated for assignment and traded to Colorado for cash or a PTBNL in January. My mistake. In any case he was not protected and went to another team who probably would have taken him in the Rule 5 draft if the Sox hadn't been able to get something for him in return. But at least the Sox got some kind of minimal return.
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Post by patford on Mar 27, 2023 11:43:40 GMT -5
That mirrors my thinking. If the Sox are as bad as most people say they are and if the Sox system is mediocre or worse (after the top 100 guys) then it should be the Sox raiding the cuts made by other teams who have loaded 26 man MLB rosters and lots of depth on the 40 man. Which is to say why are the last two or three spots on the Sox 26 man roster any better than what the Sox can go out and grab? I mean is Ort really the best reliever who is going to be available ?
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 27, 2023 13:08:04 GMT -5
That mirrors my thinking. If the Sox are as bad as most people say they are and if the Sox system is mediocre or worse (after the top 100 guys) then it should be the Sox raiding the cuts made by other teams who have loaded 26 man MLB rosters and lots of depth on the 40 man. Which is to say why are the last two or three spots on the Sox 26 man roster any better than what the Sox can go out and grab? I mean is Ort really the best reliever who is going to be available ? The people who are pessimistic about this team are mostly worried about the top half of the 26-man, not guys on the back end of the 40. I am optimistic about this team in large part because the depth is a lot better than it has been in past seasons, despite fewer healthy stars. That's not to say we won't be able to upgrade spots like Ort's, but beyond him there isn't much fat to trim from the 40 right now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 27, 2023 13:57:56 GMT -5
That mirrors my thinking. If the Sox are as bad as most people say they are and if the Sox system is mediocre or worse (after the top 100 guys) then it should be the Sox raiding the cuts made by other teams who have loaded 26 man MLB rosters and lots of depth on the 40 man. Which is to say why are the last two or three spots on the Sox 26 man roster any better than what the Sox can go out and grab? I mean is Ort really the best reliever who is going to be available ? The people who are pessimistic about this team are mostly worried about the top half of the 26-man, not guys on the back end of the 40. I am optimistic about this team in large part because the depth is a lot better than it has been in past seasons, despite fewer healthy stars. That's not to say we won't be able to upgrade spots like Ort's, but beyond him there isn't much fat to trim from the 40 right now.
And to the other point, the Red Sox have terrific (although not at every position) triple-A depth, but their system is knocked due to the lack of talent at the A+/AA levels (particularly pitching), which doesn't affect the current league-wide MLB roster gymnastics.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 28, 2023 16:30:49 GMT -5
So with Tapia seemingly making the roster (Duran optioned), a 40-man move will need to made.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 28, 2023 17:13:28 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2023 17:38:31 GMT -5
Guess the next move will be to DFA Ort for whichever reliever gets let go by their current team that Bloom wants to take a flyer on for that 13th man on the staff role. Personally, I'd go with Sheriff but I doubt Bloom does.
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Post by backwardsk on Mar 28, 2023 17:52:13 GMT -5
Guess the next move will be to DFA Ort for whichever reliever gets let go by their current team that Bloom wants to take a flyer on for that 13th man on the staff role. Personally, I'd go with Sheriff but I doubt Bloom does. This 60 man IL decision avoids any DFA moves for now if the Sox play it this way. Ort will probably make the 26 man roster surprisingly, unless there's a trade coming. The Rodriguez and Wyatt Mills injuries left a spot open for Ort.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 28, 2023 21:12:18 GMT -5
Masslive:
“While the 26-year-old Duran performed well while in camp with the Sox, he spent weeks away from the team playing for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and only amassed five plate appearances in that time. Tapia was one of the club’s best hitters all spring, hitting .326 with two homers, five RBIs and a .988 OPS in 17 games after signing a minor-league…”
Another reason as a player I would not play in the WBC. Duran put himself at a huge disadvantage. That said, I assume Tapia is a better CF defensively, so I am glad Tapia made the 26-man and is staying with the Red Sox.
I wonder how long Ort keeps his 26-man spot let alone the 40-man….
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2023 21:16:57 GMT -5
Guess the next move will be to DFA Ort for whichever reliever gets let go by their current team that Bloom wants to take a flyer on for that 13th man on the staff role. Personally, I'd go with Sheriff but I doubt Bloom does. This 60 man IL decision avoids any DFA moves for now if the Sox play it this way. Ort will probably make the 26 man roster surprisingly, unless there's a trade coming. The Rodriguez and Wyatt Mills injuries left a spot open for Ort. I have trouble believing Bloom will stay with Ort and not going fishing on the scrapheap for another reliever. They did that last year with some pitcher whose name escapes me. He wound up on the Twins when it was all said and done, I think.
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