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2023 Trade Deadline Thread
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 7, 2023 12:21:40 GMT -5
I guess I just don’t understand how you can have a serious conversation about the team building strategy over the past few years without taking into account the fact that the highest paid player on the team, whose contract predates the GM, has provided basically zero value for the entirety of his tenure. $29 million is a lot of money! It’s 1/8th of the luxury tax threshold. And it’s not even all of the dead money he’s been dealing with! For comparison DD had Hanley, Pablo and Pedroia dead money for years, nevermind Craig and Castillo in minors earning bank. Complain about the farm, but we have plenty of money and could easily go over luxury tax line every year and our Owner would still be making a killing. Bloom hasn't used that money, he goes over by a tiny amount after a reset. Which is kinda crazy given most of his deals are short one and two year deals. Example this year, extra starter you have Houck or Whitlock in pen, who then can start for you. If you're the Red Sox GM and stay under the tax line most years, you aren't using your biggest asset which is tons of money! DD also inherited one of the greatest young cores the Sox have ever had, while Bloom started with a dead last farm system. You can add value from two places: the farm and in free agency. You can survive dead money if and only if your farm is productive.
Minor league salaries also don't matter for the CBT, so it's not relevant. FSG spent up to and over the CBT threshold throughout the Castillo years.
And at least 29 of 30 owners treat their teams as a business and respect the luxury tax, so it's not really productive to blame FSG for not outdoing all of their competitors year in and year out regardless of how much they make. The Sox are a top 5 franchise in terms of value, but they also nearly always have a payroll in the top 5.
Going over the luxury tax last year was viewed by many as a mistake, but that was the only time Bloom went over. There's not much of a point in going over the tax unless you're going to be a very strong team, though. You might as well maximize your ability to spend when the team is more set up to be competitive, improve your draft picks, have more IFA money available, etc.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 7, 2023 12:22:52 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 12:26:29 GMT -5
Expected but good for them not to do that deal. Cease doesn't fit the timeline. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 7, 2023 12:31:50 GMT -5
Uhhh… slam phone (metaphorically… shows my age), block number, maybe take out a hit to restore honor. |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 7, 2023 12:34:08 GMT -5
Is a middle path ever justifiable to you? For sure, if they would’ve sold one of JD/Eovaldi with their acquisitions of Pham and Hosmer I’d been more than content. Rearranging furniture on the titanic though is never a good move, and that’s what the last two years have been IMO. Just IMO of course. I agree with you about 2022, but I'm not sure what specific move would have made that much sense in 2023. After the deadline this year most people were frustrated we didn't add another SP, but I'm still not convinced anything out there was better than the guys we're getting back this month, nevermind worth sacrificing significant prospect capital for. But I also think it wouldn't have made sense to sell. The offense is good, the pitching staff is alright now but it has a very high ceiling when healthy, and several impact players are waiting in the wings. At the deadline we were 2 GB with 6 games left against the team in WC3, so punting in that situation would have been pretty shocking.
That leaves a middle path. You can wish that more Ramirez for Schwarber type deals came together, but it's hard to assume that such deals were even on the table and I like the moves that actually were made.
The Titanic metaphor doesn't really apply since we have no reason to expect that the team would be doomed without deadline acquisitions.
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Post by boylstonbarhopper on Aug 7, 2023 12:34:20 GMT -5
Expected but good for them not to do that deal. Cease doesn't fit the timeline. He doesn't? He's under contract through 2025. Are the Red Sox now not supposed to try to compete until 2026? I wouldn't have dealt Bello for him either, but I absolutely would've given up a very strong prospect package. |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 7, 2023 12:35:43 GMT -5
Uhhh… slam phone (metaphorically… shows my age), block number, maybe take out a hit to restore honor. Seriously lmao, I would rather have Bello than Cease this year, never mind how much control he has remaining and how high his ceiling is. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 7, 2023 12:49:37 GMT -5
From above "I personally think it’s good for teams to not give a damn what the fans think, because the fans are usually clueless " Now that's an attitude filled with hubris. Is the whole point of baseball satisfying the stat geeks and those who think they know it all? Or is the point to build and delight a fan base and put a winning product on the field - esp with a wealthy team, big market team like the Red Sox? I just think that they tend to have a better idea of what will lead to a winning product on the field that will delight the fanbase than I do. If I don’t agree with a decision they made, I try to think about it from another perspective and see what they might be thinking. If I can see a vision that I don’t have to convince myself too hard to believe, then I am content. I guess you’ve got me, I do have a statistical background, but so do most of the people working in baseball these days. I don’t think you’d see substantial differences under a new GM recruited from any of the top teams in the league right now. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2023 12:50:40 GMT -5
Well Bello is a better pitcher so are the white Sox adding? |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 7, 2023 12:51:55 GMT -5
You can’t say the White Sox don’t have a good sense of humor.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2023 12:52:55 GMT -5
Idk who needs to hear it but Cease is not an ace. Hell this year he isn’t even good.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 7, 2023 13:01:53 GMT -5
For comparison DD had Hanley, Pablo and Pedroia dead money for years, nevermind Craig and Castillo in minors earning bank. Complain about the farm, but we have plenty of money and could easily go over luxury tax line every year and our Owner would still be making a killing. Bloom hasn't used that money, he goes over by a tiny amount after a reset. Which is kinda crazy given most of his deals are short one and two year deals. Example this year, extra starter you have Houck or Whitlock in pen, who then can start for you. If you're the Red Sox GM and stay under the tax line most years, you aren't using your biggest asset which is tons of money! DD also inherited of the greatest young cores the Sox have ever had, while Bloom started with a dead last farm system. You can add value from two places: the farm and in free agency. You can survive dead money if and only if your farm is productive.
Minor league salaries also don't matter for the CBT, so it's not relevant. FSG spent up to and over the CBT threshold throughout the Castillo years.
And at least 29 of 30 owners treat their teams as a business and respect the luxury tax, so it's not really productive to blame FSG for not outdoing all of their competitors year in and year out regardless of how much they make. The Sox are a top 5 franchise in terms of value, but they also nearly always have a payroll in the top 5.
Going over the luxury tax last year was viewed by many as a mistake, but that was the only time Bloom went over. There's not much of a point in going over the tax unless you're going to be a very strong team, though. You might as well maximize your ability to spend when the team is more set up to be competitive, improve your draft picks, have more IFA money available, etc.
This is the key difference. You can withstand bad contracts if you have cheap young talent offsetting them. On the other hand, it doesn’t make sense to give out big contracts if you don’t have cheap young talent to surround them with, because you won’t be maximizing the prime years of those contracts. No cheap talent means surrounding your core with overpriced veterans, which in turn means becoming the Angels. |
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briam
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Post by briam on Aug 7, 2023 13:04:45 GMT -5
We are in gear 4 and this roster is almost entirely Bloom’s at this point. If Sale and his dead money make or break the year than Bloom didn’t do his job. I guess I just don’t understand how you can have a serious conversation about the team building strategy over the past few years without taking into account the fact that the highest paid player on the team, whose contract predates the GM, has provided basically zero value for the entirety of his tenure. $29 million is a lot of money! It’s 1/8th of the luxury tax threshold. And it’s not even all of the dead money he’s been dealing with! That’s also the nature of the beast with a lot of contending teams. Rangers have gotten nothing from deGrom. Dodgers are carrying Bauer. Padres are paying 21 million to Hosmer and Pomeranz. Cubs are paying 23 for Heyward. Giants 26 for Hanniger and La Stella. Angels have a mountain of dead money for Rendon. Yankees with Donaldson, Hicks, and Montas/Rodon. In this era of long guaranteed contracts and an increase in injuries, there’s almost always going to be a bunch of dead money floating around. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 7, 2023 13:04:59 GMT -5
That doesn’t even make sense from the White Sox. That’s basically saying they were never going to trade him
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 13:11:05 GMT -5
Expected but good for them not to do that deal. Cease doesn't fit the timeline. He doesn't? He's under contract through 2025. Are the Red Sox now not supposed to try to compete until 2026? I wouldn't have dealt Bello for him either, but I absolutely would've given up a very strong prospect package. 2025 is when the Sox will start to compete. Cease will get expensive after that. So he doesn't fit the window. The Sox also have a tendency to shy away from giving extensions to pitchers heading to FA other than Sale. |
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 7, 2023 13:33:05 GMT -5
That doesn’t even make sense from the White Sox. That’s basically saying they were never going to trade him Correct, that is the message they intended to convey. I don’t know why you’re surprised, Bloom already said they looked into some guys they liked and decided those deals wouldn’t be good trades. I don’t see why he would lie about that. |
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 7, 2023 13:38:02 GMT -5
On Verdugo:
Without knowing the salty details does it seem to anyone besides me that Cora just doesn't like the kid? He's singled him out multiple times for behavior many of the other players on his teams have shown and gotten his full support. I've never seen him bench Raffy for not hustling, or Kiké for boneheaded basepath moves on top of shoddy defense.
I don't know why they didn't trade him at the deadline, if there is conflict there, keeping him around isn't going to help clubhouse harmony. Kiké intimated on his way out that Cora may be loosing the clubhouse, which is an odd thing for him to be saying because Cora spent the last two years anointing him a saint and savior pretty much any time he could in a presser.
Would love to be a fly on the wall and privy to what is actually going on in that clubhouse. Losing breeds resentment, and if this team starts falling apart there is going to be someone who opens their mouth. If hey aren't playing competitively down the stretch I would think Cora's job is in danger, even more than say Chaim.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 7, 2023 13:47:08 GMT -5
For sure, if they would’ve sold one of JD/Eovaldi with their acquisitions of Pham and Hosmer I’d been more than content. Rearranging furniture on the titanic though is never a good move, and that’s what the last two years have been IMO. Just IMO of course. I agree with you about 2022, but I'm not sure what specific move would have made that much sense in 2023. After the deadline this year most people were frustrated we didn't add another SP, but I'm still not convinced anything out there was better than the guys we're getting back this month, nevermind worth sacrificing significant prospect capital for. But I also think it wouldn't have made sense to sell. The offense is good, the pitching staff is alright now but it has a very high ceiling when healthy, and several impact players are waiting in the wings. At the deadline we were 2 GB with 6 games left against the team in WC3, so punting in that situation would have been pretty shocking.
That leaves a middle path. You can wish that more Ramirez for Schwarber type deals came together, but it's hard to assume that such deals were even on the table and I like the moves that actually were made.
The Titanic metaphor doesn't really apply since we have no reason to expect that the team would be doomed without deadline acquisitions.
For me it all depends on the aquistion cost. There were plenty of 4-5 starters that would have at least provided depth and been better than our bullpen games, or at least allowed us to have less TBD days, but, but.. what was the ask? This was a weird deadline where it seem the ask really outstripped the demand, teams were hoping to cash in and hoping a team would make a stupid move, a-la the Angels. For that reason only, I'm ok with standing pat even though it sent a mixed message to the clubhouse. Like I said previously, the only real shocker for me is that Verdugo is still here. There is obviously a rift there between him and Cora, and allowing it to fester for the rest of the year seems counterproductive. That's not to say I'm itching to deal Verdugo, but it doesn't seem like they want to extend him, so playing out the string, or even dealing him in the offseason seems like we are purposely diminishing our return on him, especially after the Saturday debacle came to light. Even as mad as Cora was, it would have been better for the team for him to lie, than to do the managers decision and whole spiel about availability. You don't give fuel to people who might trade for him to offer less this offseason, it's short sighted. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 13:48:33 GMT -5
On Verdugo: Without knowing the salty details does it seem to anyone besides me that Cora just doesn't like the kid? He's singled him out multiple times for behavior many of the other players on his teams have shown and gotten his full support. I've never seen him bench Raffy for not hustling, or Kiké for boneheaded basepath moves on top of shoddy defense. I don't know why they didn't trade him at the deadline, if there is conflict there, keeping him around isn't going to help clubhouse harmony. Kiké intimated on his way out that Cora may be loosing the clubhouse, which is an odd thing for him to be saying because Cora spent the last two years anointing him a saint and savior pretty much any time he could in a presser. Would love to be a fly on the wall and privy to what is actually going on in that clubhouse. Losing breeds resentment, and if this team starts falling apart there is going to be someone who opens their mouth. If hey aren't playing competitively down the stretch I would think Cora's job is in danger, even more than say Chaim. Chaim is in zero danger. Cora is probably gone. I can't see this relationship lasting past this year. You can see how he has handled rebuilding and the small market mindset. He'll be fine with a team that is looking to win a title next year. The Padres immediately come to mind as a team that could use Cora. Sox would be wise to try and get someone like Baldelli or maybe see if Kevin Cash is available. Maybe someone up and coming like Sam Fuld wants to leave his GM post under Dombrowski and manage. I remember he was talked about a couple years back. Local ties too. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 7, 2023 13:53:38 GMT -5
Who knows just how toxic the situation is, but Alex Verdugo on a 1/$10 million deal playing to secure a big free agent contract is not exactly something I'd be looking to dump at all costs.
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 7, 2023 13:59:21 GMT -5
I guess I just don’t understand how you can have a serious conversation about the team building strategy over the past few years without taking into account the fact that the highest paid player on the team, whose contract predates the GM, has provided basically zero value for the entirety of his tenure. $29 million is a lot of money! It’s 1/8th of the luxury tax threshold. And it’s not even all of the dead money he’s been dealing with! That’s also the nature of the beast with a lot of contending teams. Rangers have gotten nothing from deGrom. Dodgers are carrying Bauer. Padres are paying 21 million to Hosmer and Pomeranz. Cubs are paying 23 for Heyward. Giants 26 for Hanniger and La Stella. Angels have a mountain of dead money for Rendon. Yankees with Donaldson, Hicks, and Montas/Rodon. In this era of long guaranteed contracts and an increase in injuries, there’s almost always going to be a bunch of dead money floating around. Right, and some of that bad money is clearly holding the team back—the Angels, Padres, Cubs, and Yankees would probably be in better spots if they’d spent that money on something else. The Rangers have gotten better-than-expected production from basically the entire rest of the roster, so that’s helping them deal with losing DeGrom. Good when it happens, as 2018 taught us. Not necessarily sustainable, as 2019 taught us. If Jung is for real then that helps a lot. The Dodgers reset the tax before they gave Bauer his contract, and they’ve been willing to blow past the tax these last few years. It’ll be interesting to see what they do, they’ve manage their payroll so that they can get back under next year if they want to. Part of that was only giving Bauer 3 years. 7 of the Giants’ 8 most valuable players are making like $15 million combined this year. The other one is Alex Cobb. In short, you can overcome bad money by boosting payroll, offsetting the bad contracts with cheap young talent, or the rest of your veterans outperforming expectations. If you get none of those, you will struggle. |
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 7, 2023 14:23:30 GMT -5
On Verdugo: Without knowing the salty details does it seem to anyone besides me that Cora just doesn't like the kid? He's singled him out multiple times for behavior many of the other players on his teams have shown and gotten his full support. I've never seen him bench Raffy for not hustling, or Kiké for boneheaded basepath moves on top of shoddy defense. I don't know why they didn't trade him at the deadline, if there is conflict there, keeping him around isn't going to help clubhouse harmony. Kiké intimated on his way out that Cora may be loosing the clubhouse, which is an odd thing for him to be saying because Cora spent the last two years anointing him a saint and savior pretty much any time he could in a presser. Would love to be a fly on the wall and privy to what is actually going on in that clubhouse. Losing breeds resentment, and if this team starts falling apart there is going to be someone who opens their mouth. If hey aren't playing competitively down the stretch I would think Cora's job is in danger, even more than say Chaim. Chaim is in zero danger. Cora is probably gone. I can't see this relationship lasting past this year. You can see how he has handled rebuilding and the small market mindset. He'll be fine with a team that is looking to win a title next year. The Padres immediately come to mind as a team that could use Cora. Sox would be wise to try and get someone like Baldelli or maybe see if Kevin Cash is available. Maybe someone up and coming like Sam Fuld wants to leave his GM post under Dombrowski and manage. I remember he was talked about a couple years back. Local ties too. I don't know, the Padres have Melvin, who by all accounts is a pretty well regarded manager in his own right. They have different issues though, they, like the Mets have sort of proven that you can't just throw money out the door and expect a championship. A lineup with Bogey, Machado, Tatis Jr, and Soto should not be struggling to score runs, and their rotation wasn't bad going into the season either. Is it today's players inability to be managed or coached in any fashion? I do think Cora is probably gone, for many reasons. One, he's already said there is a time limit on his desire to manage, maybe that is creeping in here also? They need to turn over the coaching staff. Febles isn't exactly helping them as an infield coach/3B coach. And my views on Bush are mixed as well. I know a lot of people are clamoring for a Varitek as a manager opportunity, but I'm not sure he would be successful. I'd rather they bring in a more venerated manager and make Tek the bench coach first. Honestly, Bob Melvin would probably be a good pick, he's good with the younger players after being in Oakland for so long, so if your theory is true, maybe we trade managers this offseason? They really need a Snitker/Thompson type guy imo. Universally loved by their players, steeped in knowledge of the game. We should have never let Louvillo go. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 7, 2023 14:30:41 GMT -5
On Verdugo: Without knowing the salty details does it seem to anyone besides me that Cora just doesn't like the kid? He's singled him out multiple times for behavior many of the other players on his teams have shown and gotten his full support. I've never seen him bench Raffy for not hustling, or Kiké for boneheaded basepath moves on top of shoddy defense. I don't know why they didn't trade him at the deadline, if there is conflict there, keeping him around isn't going to help clubhouse harmony. Kiké intimated on his way out that Cora may be loosing the clubhouse, which is an odd thing for him to be saying because Cora spent the last two years anointing him a saint and savior pretty much any time he could in a presser. Would love to be a fly on the wall and privy to what is actually going on in that clubhouse. Losing breeds resentment, and if this team starts falling apart there is going to be someone who opens their mouth. If hey aren't playing competitively down the stretch I would think Cora's job is in danger, even more than say Chaim. In general I think clubhouse psychodrama is both overrated and unknowable, but having said that it seems more likely to me that Kiké was losing the clubhouse than that Cora is. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2023 14:49:35 GMT -5
Who knows just how toxic the situation is, but Alex Verdugo on a 1/$10 million deal playing to secure a big free agent contract is not exactly something I'd be looking to dump at all costs. Def seems like the kind of guy who would go .310/.365/.485 next year only to revert back to .280/.335/.420 for the entirety of his shiny new 5 year deal Guy likes having pressure on him and generally responds well to it. What better pressure than the opportunity for generational wealth! |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2023 15:27:25 GMT -5
For comparison DD had Hanley, Pablo and Pedroia dead money for years, nevermind Craig and Castillo in minors earning bank. Complain about the farm, but we have plenty of money and could easily go over luxury tax line every year and our Owner would still be making a killing. Bloom hasn't used that money, he goes over by a tiny amount after a reset. Which is kinda crazy given most of his deals are short one and two year deals. Example this year, extra starter you have Houck or Whitlock in pen, who then can start for you. If you're the Red Sox GM and stay under the tax line most years, you aren't using your biggest asset which is tons of money! DD also inherited of the greatest young cores the Sox have ever had, while Bloom started with a dead last farm system. You can add value from two places: the farm and in free agency. You can survive dead money if and only if your farm is productive.
Minor league salaries also don't matter for the CBT, so it's not relevant. FSG spent up to and over the CBT threshold throughout the Castillo years.
And at least 29 of 30 owners treat their teams as a business and respect the luxury tax, so it's not really productive to blame FSG for not outdoing all of their competitors year in and year out regardless of how much they make. The Sox are a top 5 franchise in terms of value, but they also nearly always have a payroll in the top 5.
Going over the luxury tax last year was viewed by many as a mistake, but that was the only time Bloom went over. There's not much of a point in going over the tax unless you're going to be a very strong team, though. You might as well maximize your ability to spend when the team is more set up to be competitive, improve your draft picks, have more IFA money available, etc.
Like I said complain about the farm, don't give me crap about money! Example bring back Eovaldi over Kluber, which would have made not trading him a smart move. Dodgers are over for 3rd straight year, Yankees are almost guaranteed to be next year and Mets are going crazy. Last I checked we weren't close to a top 5 spending team. We have Tampa matching contracts for pitchers, rather than going higher! He can go short-term, that's smart, but spend some money and go for it. Get your guys! BTW going over tax line has nothing to do with draft picks unless you go way over or its comp picks. I'm not saying go way over. It has nothing to do with international money, that's signing guys who got QO, not paying luxury tax. The narrative has changed, as I expected it would, it was all about the new CBA discussions. The old days are back. |
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