redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 20:25:16 GMT -5
I dont take "projections" any more as gospel than you should take my opinion. I've watched Boras for a long time and hes not going to have this contract signed than anything less than a record. I don't know if the present value annual dollar figure for Ohtani is well known. Much more well known is that hes getting 20 million over the next 10 years and 680 million the following 10 for a total signing figure of 700 million. I think the target is to both top the 700 million figure and yes, get an annual dollar figure between 46.75 to 50 million per year, so when I see 600 - 625 million thrown around its feasible to me that another team can give Soto 14 to 15 years that comes out to 701 million. It is. Here's Cot's Baseball Contracts site for reference. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YX_O-LZuYfE9n8u3s3EICLAjp1hixwovsrTIJaaAXng/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900Not many people flock to Cots, just the hard core fans. Most stories and headlines said 10 year deal, 700 million for Ohtani and that's about as far as your typical baseball fan got with that. The students of the game know it's more nuanced than that but most fans arent students if the game and I dont think that's what Boras is targeting specifically although I do thonk he wants to top that average value mark as well, but I thonk with a 26 year old client hes targeting that 700 mark first and foremost so that the storyline will read that Soto's total contractor 700 million whatever eclipsed Ohtani's total contract value of 700 million. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Juan Soto
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 20:29:21 GMT -5
I dont take "projections" any more as gospel than you should take my opinion. I've watched Boras for a long time and hes not going to have this contract signed than anything less than a record. I dont know if the present value annual dollar figure for Ohtani is well known. Much more well known is that hes getting 20 million over the next 10 years and 680 million the following 10 for a total signing figure of 700 million. I think the target is to both top the 700 million figure and yes, get an annual dollar figure between 46.75 to 50 million per year, so when I see 600 - 625 million thrown around its feasible to me that another team can give Soto 14 to 15 years that comes out to 701 million. Lot of confidence required to think your estimate is just as likely to be accurate as both the professionals and the models (both of which btw have been pretty decent even on the mega deals in recent years, Xander excepted) It's not really confidence. More of a lack of confidence in "projections" which are constantly wrong. Funny but true story. The last time the Sox were actually in a playoff race in August I was sitting with my son treating him to pizza and I went over the rest of the schedule and we "predicted" how the rest of the season would play out, series by series. I pegged them at 90 wins. My 8 year old son tallied them up for 92 wins, a record of 92-70. And the 2021 Red Sox finished 92-70. My 8 year "projected" their finish with 100% accuracy even though he barely even pays attention to the Red Sox, lol. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2024 20:31:59 GMT -5
Lot of confidence required to think your estimate is just as likely to be accurate as both the professionals and the models (both of which btw have been pretty decent even on the mega deals in recent years, Xander excepted) It's not really confidence. More of a lack of confidence in "projections" which are constantly wrong. Funny but true story. The last time the Sox were actually in a playoff race in August I was sitting with my son treating him to pizza and I went over the rest of the schedule and we "predicted" how the rest of the season would play out, series by series. I pegged them at 90 wins. My 8 year old son tallied them up for 92 wins, a record of 92-70. And the 2021 Red Sox finished 92-70. My 8 year "projected" their finish with 100% accuracy even though he barely even pays attention to the Red Sox, lol. I guess I'd have to ask are the projections constantly wrong though? I don't think they usually are all that off. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2024 20:34:18 GMT -5
Mick is now getting smacked down by community notes
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 28, 2024 20:45:46 GMT -5
Hmm
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 20:47:50 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 20:52:33 GMT -5
It's not really confidence. More of a lack of confidence in "projections" which are constantly wrong. Funny but true story. The last time the Sox were actually in a playoff race in August I was sitting with my son treating him to pizza and I went over the rest of the schedule and we "predicted" how the rest of the season would play out, series by series. I pegged them at 90 wins. My 8 year old son tallied them up for 92 wins, a record of 92-70. And the 2021 Red Sox finished 92-70. My 8 year "projected" their finish with 100% accuracy even though he barely even pays attention to the Red Sox, lol. I guess I'd have to ask are the projections constantly wrong though? I don't think they usually are all that off. I dont know. You'd have to look at how many things you wanted projected and actually tally up how accurate they are. Who really has time for that anyways and would it really change ones opinion if they are of a strongly differing opinion? And that's as far as I'll go with that because honestly who cares? The big question is now that theres reason to be confident that the Sox made a big offer to Soto, will he accept it or is this merely another offer in a round of offers that is still ongoing and will have him accepting an offer that's a good deal larger than the reported 600 - 625 figure? |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Nov 28, 2024 20:58:31 GMT -5
I believe this is the Gomez stuff being referenced to the Nats and Soto:
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Juan Soto
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2024 20:58:53 GMT -5
I guess I'd have to ask are the projections constantly wrong though? I don't think they usually are all that off. I dont know. You'd have to look at how many things you wanted projected and actually tally up how accurate they are. Who really has time for that anyways and would it really change ones opinion if they are of a strongly differing opinion? And that's as far as I'll go with that because honestly who cares? The big question is now that theres reason to be confident that the Sox made a big offer to Soto, will he accept it or is this merely another offer in a round of offers that is still ongoing and will have him accepting an offer that's a good deal larger than the reported 600 - 625 figure? That's fair I 100% could have looked up some previous projections but ya I'm too lazy to. Lots of folks on this site and maybe someone will inform us? I'm optimistic that Soto will be a sox now but should I be? Maybe? Maybe not? We'll see. I get your apprehension. |
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 28, 2024 21:04:40 GMT -5
I believe this is the Gomez stuff being referenced to the Nats and Soto: Ye |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 21:07:43 GMT -5
I dont know. You'd have to look at how many things you wanted projected and actually tally up how accurate they are. Who really has time for that anyways and would it really change ones opinion if they are of a strongly differing opinion? And that's as far as I'll go with that because honestly who cares? The big question is now that theres reason to be confident that the Sox made a big offer to Soto, will he accept it or is this merely another offer in a round of offers that is still ongoing and will have him accepting an offer that's a good deal larger than the reported 600 - 625 figure? That's fair I 100% could have looked up some previous projections but ya I'm too lazy to. Lots of folks on this site and maybe someone will inform us? I'm optimistic that Soto will be a sox now but should I be? Maybe? Maybe not? We'll see. I get your apprehension. All I hear is that the Sox made a strong offer- good, happy to hear that, and that Soto talked with Devers for an hour. Awesome. Due diligence to get an inside look at what playing for the Red Sox looks like in the present as Papi and Pedro can only speak of playing for them in the glorious past. I'd surmise that Soto has already spoken with Lindor who is a buddy of his so he knows what playing for the Mets is like. He didnt need a similar call from Judge because he already knows what being a Yankee is like. What he probably wanted to know was where ownership's head is at so he met with Hal Steinbrenner. None of this points to an agreement or that anything is imminent. The only "we got him signed' is by some arrogant guy who knows Kirk Minihane, which does nothing for me. So while I'm intrigued as hell, I'm not convinced at all that Soto is going to the Red Sox. I am convinced that the Sox are in the ballgame, so that's not nothing, but its certainly not everything either. I think this thing will drag out for another week and a half, and the longer it goes the more its obvious that hes not accepting the Boston offer. My gut feeling, which can certainly be wrong, is that the Sox will have to boost their offer to have a shot at signing him. I hope I'm wrong and he signs with the Sox by tomorrow. But if it's by sone dude named Mick I'm not going to buy it. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 28, 2024 21:11:50 GMT -5
Lot of confidence required to think your estimate is just as likely to be accurate as both the professionals and the models (both of which btw have been pretty decent even on the mega deals in recent years, Xander excepted) It's not really confidence. More of a lack of confidence in "projections" which are constantly wrong. Funny but true story. The last time the Sox were actually in a playoff race in August I was sitting with my son treating him to pizza and I went over the rest of the schedule and we "predicted" how the rest of the season would play out, series by series. I pegged them at 90 wins. My 8 year old son tallied them up for 92 wins, a record of 92-70. And the 2021 Red Sox finished 92-70. My 8 year "projected" their finish with 100% accuracy even though he barely even pays attention to the Red Sox, lol. The projections aren’t constantly wrong that’s the point. Theyve generally been really good the last couple years. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 21:17:03 GMT -5
It's not really confidence. More of a lack of confidence in "projections" which are constantly wrong. Funny but true story. The last time the Sox were actually in a playoff race in August I was sitting with my son treating him to pizza and I went over the rest of the schedule and we "predicted" how the rest of the season would play out, series by series. I pegged them at 90 wins. My 8 year old son tallied them up for 92 wins, a record of 92-70. And the 2021 Red Sox finished 92-70. My 8 year "projected" their finish with 100% accuracy even though he barely even pays attention to the Red Sox, lol. The projections aren’t constantly wrong that’s the point. Theyve generally been really good the last couple years. That's fine for you, but personally if my own personal opinion doesnt align with a projection I'm still going to go with my own opinion or projection. We'll have to agree to disagree on what we use to form the basis of our opinions on. There are times when your projections will be spot on and I'm off. There will be some times when what I felt in my gut was right and the projections didnt capture that and there will be times when we're all wrong. Hell there will even be times I agree with the projections. To each their own. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 28, 2024 21:20:47 GMT -5
The projections aren’t constantly wrong that’s the point. Theyve generally been really good the last couple years. That's fine for you, but personally if my own personal opinion doesnt align with a projection I'm still going to go with my own opinion or projection. We'll have to agree to disagree on what we use to form the basis of our opinions on. There are times when your projections will be spot on and I'm off. There will be some times when what I felt in my gut was right and the projections didnt capture that and there will be times when we're all wrong. Hell there will even be times I agree with the projections. To each their own. Totally fine and you should, all I’m saying is that your original premise that your guess is equal in likelihood to the projections is one I am skeptical of |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 21:30:03 GMT -5
That's fine for you, but personally if my own personal opinion doesnt align with a projection I'm still going to go with my own opinion or projection. We'll have to agree to disagree on what we use to form the basis of our opinions on. There are times when your projections will be spot on and I'm off. There will be some times when what I felt in my gut was right and the projections didnt capture that and there will be times when we're all wrong. Hell there will even be times I agree with the projections. To each their own. Totally fine and you should, all I’m saying is that your original premise that your guess is equal in likelihood to the projections is one I am skeptical of Well I wont vouch for myself but I'll vouch for my son. |
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Juan Soto
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2024 21:30:23 GMT -5
That's fair I 100% could have looked up some previous projections but ya I'm too lazy to. Lots of folks on this site and maybe someone will inform us? I'm optimistic that Soto will be a sox now but should I be? Maybe? Maybe not? We'll see. I get your apprehension. All I hear is that the Sox made a strong offer- good, happy to hear that, and that Soto talked with Devers for an hour. Awesome. Due diligence to get an inside look at what playing for the Red Sox looks like in the present as Papi and Pedro can only speak of playing for them in the glorious past. I'd surmise that Soto has already spoken with Lindor who is a buddy of his so he knows what playing for the Mets is like. He didnt need a similar call from Judge because he already knows what being a Yankee is like. What he probably wanted to know was where ownership's head is at so he met with Hal Steinbrenner. None of this points to an agreement or that anything is imminent. The only "we got him signed' is by some arrogant guy who knows Kirk Minihane, which does nothing for me. So while I'm intrigued as hell, I'm not convinced at all that Soto is going to the Red Sox. I am convinced that the Sox are in the ballgame, so that's not nothing, but its certainly not everything either. I think this thing will drag out for another week and a half, and the longer it goes the more its obvious that hes not accepting the Boston offer. My gut feeling, which can certainly be wrong, is that the Sox will have to boost their offer to have a shot at signing him. I hope I'm wrong and he signs with the Sox by tomorrow. But if it's by sone dude named Mick I'm not going to buy it. Once again I hear you and you've got a point for sure. I feel like you and I are generally of a very similar mindset but in this case I think the Sox will reel him in while you aren't there yet. Honestly your probably correct. We'll see, I hope in this scenario I'm correct. If not I'll be the first one to say hey yea you were right. |
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Nov 28, 2024 21:30:35 GMT -5
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Post by sxfan on Nov 28, 2024 21:30:35 GMT -5
Okay I'll believe Hector Gomez at face value. 13 years 625 million is offered from the Sox to Soto.
Will Cohen and the Mets now offer 675 million like promised?
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Juan Soto
Nov 28, 2024 21:32:06 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 28, 2024 21:32:06 GMT -5
The difference in tax rates would be a little skewed by the jock tax, right?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 21:33:21 GMT -5
All I hear is that the Sox made a strong offer- good, happy to hear that, and that Soto talked with Devers for an hour. Awesome. Due diligence to get an inside look at what playing for the Red Sox looks like in the present as Papi and Pedro can only speak of playing for them in the glorious past. I'd surmise that Soto has already spoken with Lindor who is a buddy of his so he knows what playing for the Mets is like. He didnt need a similar call from Judge because he already knows what being a Yankee is like. What he probably wanted to know was where ownership's head is at so he met with Hal Steinbrenner. None of this points to an agreement or that anything is imminent. The only "we got him signed' is by some arrogant guy who knows Kirk Minihane, which does nothing for me. So while I'm intrigued as hell, I'm not convinced at all that Soto is going to the Red Sox. I am convinced that the Sox are in the ballgame, so that's not nothing, but its certainly not everything either. I think this thing will drag out for another week and a half, and the longer it goes the more its obvious that hes not accepting the Boston offer. My gut feeling, which can certainly be wrong, is that the Sox will have to boost their offer to have a shot at signing him. I hope I'm wrong and he signs with the Sox by tomorrow. But if it's by sone dude named Mick I'm not going to buy it. Once again I hear you and you've got a point for sure. I feel like you and I are generally of a very similar mindset but in this case I think the Sox will reel him in while you aren't there yet. Honestly your probably correct. We'll see, I hope in this scenario I'm correct. If not I'll be the first one to say hey yea you were right. If you have the Sox reeling in Soto, do you have it happening based on the offers that are being reported? Or are you saying itll go another round and the Sox will raise their offer again and will then snag Soto? |
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Juan Soto
Nov 28, 2024 21:37:00 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Nov 28, 2024 21:37:00 GMT -5
Okay I'll believe Hector Gomez at face value. 13 years 625 million is offered from the Sox to Soto. Will Cohen and the Mets now offer 675 million like promised? I think Cohen would have to start @ $685 million to make up for the tax implications. Offering $50 million more is actually negligible in this scenario and would mean Soto would be making a decision on what he wants out of a baseball club than the initial number on his contract. |
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Juan Soto
Nov 28, 2024 21:38:10 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 28, 2024 21:38:10 GMT -5
Once again I hear you and you've got a point for sure. I feel like you and I are generally of a very similar mindset but in this case I think the Sox will reel him in while you aren't there yet. Honestly your probably correct. We'll see, I hope in this scenario I'm correct. If not I'll be the first one to say hey yea you were right. If you have the Sox reeling in Soto, do you have it happening based on the offers that are being reported? Or are you saying itll go another round and the Sox will raise their offer again and will then snag Soto? I guess I think that the reported 13 year 625M deal will be enough? The reports were that the bidding started this week so I'm probably just being too hopeful. We'll see. I do think it's kind of an in for a penny in for a pound scenario where they'll up the offer if they have to. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2024 21:42:54 GMT -5
If you have the Sox reeling in Soto, do you have it happening based on the offers that are being reported? Or are you saying itll go another round and the Sox will raise their offer again and will then snag Soto? I guess I think that the reported 13 year 625M deal will be enough? The reports were that the bidding started this week so I'm probably just being too hopeful. We'll see. I do think it's kind of an in for a penny in for a pound scenario where they'll up the offer if they have to. We'll know if its accepted or not by the time Monday night rolls around. |
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 28, 2024 21:46:57 GMT -5
Okay I'll believe Hector Gomez at face value. 13 years 625 million is offered from the Sox to Soto. Will Cohen and the Mets now offer 675 million like promised? That equates to the Sox offer after taxes... Then how much more do the Mets need to include to cover the Rich Dominican History of the Sox which is reportedly important to Soto? |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 28, 2024 21:48:11 GMT -5
Big Papi going from clutchest hitter in history to ace negotiator is the kind of story I’m here for.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 28, 2024 21:49:16 GMT -5
Big Papi going from clutchest hitter in history to ace negotiator is the kind of story I’m here for. "This is our F'n city" |
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