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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2023 15:34:15 GMT -5
Meyers got overrated because he was the best of a bad bunch of WRs. He could find holes in zone coverage and was a reliable route runner/had good hands but had no explosiveness and was bad after the catch. The Patriots front office clearly did not think highly of him (his tweet suggests that he would have re-signed with the Patriots if offered the same contract). I'm inclined to agree. Smith-Schuster is the better player and is the same age, so that's an upgrade in my book.
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2023 13:40:06 GMT -5
There seem like a lot of options, which is part of why I say it. I donât see him as setting himself apart, really, from a crowd of options. So my negative about him isnât a general negative. I definitely prefer Mondesi at SS and Kiké back to CF. Might not be long. I think one thing the Red Sox have done very well in their roster building is given themselves optionality. Obviously none of those guys are All-Star players, but you give yourself good odds at filling your holes by bringing in a lot of players whose upside isn't particularly tied to one position. If Duvall plays like 2021 Duvall, great he's your starting center fielder! If he struggles and Tapia's still riding a hot streak, great make that work somehow! If he falls back to earth and Mondesi is back healthy, great move Kiké back to center! If Mondesi gets injured again, great maybe Duran's swing change pays off full time! If none of those things work out... maybe stay away from Vegas. It's very Rays-y in that it's just playing the odds that someone will work out and that you can mix and match to create a reasonable baseline of production. You can't build a contender on that alone (unless you are the Rays and are just inexplicably great at it), but in tandem with the star power you expect/hope to get from Devers, Yoshida, Story, and Casas it certainly has potential as a strategy. I'm feeling more and more optimistic about the mix as time goes on. My thing with that strategy has always been that it often takes a while to figure out that your plan A (and sometimes plan B) at a position aren't working and you should pivot to plan C, especially if plan A is a veteran player that a manager feels obligated to give a fair amount of rope. It took until June (and 205 PAs of -0.3 fWAR) before the 2014 Red Sox finally ditched Grady Sizemore, by which point the season was already lost. Let's hope that doesn't happen this year...
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2023 13:32:05 GMT -5
I can't wait for the Aaron Rodgers self-immolation in New York.
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2023 11:20:56 GMT -5
Part of the goal of free agency is to ensure that you don't have a gaping hole that you absolutely need to fill via the draft (because you never know how draft boards will fall, etc.). They've done a solid job of doing that at tackle so far. I would agree, but I really would like a high end tackle in free agency, a veteran signing who can be a bridge or a really good emergency starter and a draft pick because they need two and want to have the draft pick earn it. Not going to pretend I know who is and isn't a great tackle, but it sounds like there are, or were, a few really good ones. They just signed two veteran fringe starter/good backup options in Reiff and McDermott and a younger, higher-upside option in Anderson, so I think they've roughly done that already. They can still draft a first-round tackle, but it's now a nice to have and not a must have.
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2023 9:28:49 GMT -5
Part of the goal of free agency is to ensure that you don't have a gaping hole that you absolutely need to fill via the draft (because you never know how draft boards will fall, etc.). They've done a solid job of doing that at tackle so far.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 19:06:17 GMT -5
Well, as always I don't really know what anyone means by "floor" or "ceiling." If floor = worst plausible outcome, then the floor for every prospect is to totally bust. Victor Robles, for example, was a very highly touted prospect - 65 FV with a 60 hit tool per fangraphs, which happens to be the easiest source for me to look up. So what does it prove if Robles never figured out how to hit? Just that *any* prospect might not figure out how to hit. But it doesn't mean anything specific about Rafaela. When most folks use the term floor, they mean something like a 20th percentile outcome. The fact that Rafaela’s 20th percentile outcome is likely as a multi-year MLB contributor differentiates him from a lot of other prospects in my opinion for reasons mentioned above.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 19:03:17 GMT -5
Second division regulars or bench players are still very valuable, especially while they have options remaining. More importantly, it means he’ll continue to have access to high-level coaching/development and additional opportunities to show improvement. It’s not a coincidence that most post-hype sleeper types are high on the defensive spectrum.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 18:22:55 GMT -5
So you are saying Pache, Robles and Rafeala have (had) similar hand eye coordination, bat speed, pitch recognition, in zone exit velocities and chase rates. Compelling.... Nope, just trying to have a discussion about what the *floor* is for a guy we all recognize as an outstanding CF defender and Top 100 prospect. Not sure why the need for snark. (and sorry if there was none but it reads that way) I've been caught in the "he's at least a plus defender up the middle" too many times before. Che-Hsuan Lin and his CF roller skates. Deven Marrero as the next ASU Red Sox MIF. The difference is Rafaela is even better defensively and has more offensive ceiling, so I'm not trying to call them similar prospects. I'm just saying there's a trap in projecting a guy's floor because he's good defensively as being higher than it is. Eh, I feel like these examples only support the idea that even if Rafaela rounds to a zero on offense, he'll be a multi-year MLB player, which is more than you can say for the Lars Anderson types. - Pache has 332 PAs spread across three seasons despite hitting .156/.205/.234 (26 wRC+) during that time, and he'll likely get an MLB bench spot with Oakland in 2023.
- Victor Robles will probably start for the Nationals in 2023 despite a career .233/.306/.359 (78 wRC+) line over 1675 PAs.
- Deven Marrero has 373 PAs spread out across seven seasons with four franchises despite a .191/.246/.279 (37 wRC+) career line.
- Che-Hsuan Lin probably would have had a similar career had he not gone back to Taiwan (where he looks to have been at least a solid regular, including this amazing highlight:
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 15:00:16 GMT -5
Assuming the Jets land Rodgers, this might be a year Kraft has to have a hard conversation with Bill and just tank the season. Would anyone comfortably gamble a paycheck on the Patriots winning 1 divisional game with everyone's roster being what they are today? I'm sure they will, but I wouldn't feel good about it. What moves can they make to leap frog the other 3? Then you have to account for the following schedule that includes: Denver (huge question at QB, but stout defense and having to play in Denver) KC, scheduled loss. Chargers, Raiders, Saints, Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles how many wins do you think the Patriots will get out of those match-ups? (Got lazy, but teams I feel like there's a chance the Patriots could win, but all doubtful). The only games I'd feel like they should win without much issue is Giants, Commanders and Colts. Meyers is a huge loss and there's no free agents available to replace him. To me, as of today, they're looking at a 5-6 win season. Where do they go from here to get to 10? I don't think they are going to win the division and they're likely a fringe playoff contender, but that doesn't mean they should tank, either. The most important thing that the Patriots need to do in 2023 is figure out whether Mac Jones is their long-term QB. In order to do that, you need to give him a proper offensive system and proper personnel (on both the OL and the skill position side). Losing Meyers is less than ideal but you can make up for him by drafting a Smith-Njigba or a Flowers or acquiring a Hopkins or drafting/acquiring another TE.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 10:57:19 GMT -5
I continue to believe that Rafaela's prospect status is being underrated (especially nationally) because his defense isn't being properly valued. In my mind, Rafaela has both a high floor (he will play 4+ seasons in MLB even if he's a replacement-level hitter because defensive flexibility and above-average defense at multiple up-the-middle positions is so valuable) and a high ceiling (he's a 4+ WAR player if he's even a league-average hitter, and he's got the tools (bat speed, power) to be even better than that).
For instance, I personally have him rated higher than Casas because the offensive bar at 1B is so high. To get to 4 WAR at that position, Casas would have to be a ~140 wRC+ hitter (think Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.288/.364/.527 from 2020-2022) or Jose Abreu (.289/.366/.489 from 2020-2022) at the plate). Casas is certainly capable of doing that, but I'd give Rafaela higher odds of being a league-average hitter than Casas' odds of being that kind of hitter.
There's also a lot lower risk in terms of defense translating from AAA to the majors better than hit tool or game power translating from AAA to the majors. I feel more comfortable that Rafaela is going to be an everyday regular than I do with Casas or even someone like Yoshida.
So, as compared to Casas, I see Rafaela as: higher floor, same median projection, same ceiling, lower risk. I honestly think the difference is that an elite hitter ceiling looks sexier in terms of All-Star and award (ROY, MVP) potential, but elite defense looks just as good on the WAR leaderboards, and Rafaela's positional flexibility adds further value that isn't being quantified. His ability to make contact (even if it's weak contact) and speed on the bases are also potential plus factors given the potential impact of the new MLB rule changes.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2023 10:17:04 GMT -5
The Agholor signing was a total bust, but to be fair, it is easier/cheaper to replace possession/slot Y/Z receiver production than it is to replace deep threat X receiver production.
I probably would have tried to match that contract, but they probably have the dollars allocated elsewhere.
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Post by jmei on Mar 13, 2023 13:41:33 GMT -5
Re-signing Jones on a reasonable contract and moving Smith’s guaranteed money is a great start to free agency.
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Post by jmei on Mar 10, 2023 21:51:26 GMT -5
That’s a hell of an atmosphere. Wish all MLB stadiums had that energy.
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Post by jmei on Mar 10, 2023 11:05:08 GMT -5
It's more black comedy/horror than horror/thriller, but Ready or Not (2019) was one I really enjoyed. You might enjoy it as well if you liked Cabin in the Woods.
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Post by jmei on Mar 9, 2023 10:04:15 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Mar 5, 2023 20:43:31 GMT -5
Fortunately, they’re killing the Knicks on fast breaks and offensive rebounds.
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Post by jmei on Mar 5, 2023 20:38:57 GMT -5
Same old buggaboos—bad turnovers, stagnant ball movement, lazy defense.
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Post by jmei on Mar 5, 2023 20:11:14 GMT -5
Derrick White is so, so good. It’s a cliche but he does all the little stuff (and some of the big stuff).
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Post by jmei on Mar 4, 2023 6:30:34 GMT -5
I mean, this was the biggest NBA comeback in 25 years against a bad team at a time when they are blowing the number one seed. I think some overreaction is warranted.
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Post by jmei on Mar 3, 2023 21:59:28 GMT -5
Tatum still has some of the worst body language in the league when he misses a shot.
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Post by jmei on Mar 3, 2023 15:37:19 GMT -5
Blu Sushi is where the SoxProspects.com staff dinner is usually held. Popular with players/coaches/front office staff as well, I believe.
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Post by jmei on Mar 2, 2023 18:04:56 GMT -5
I dunno man. Maybe it’s just me, but I never drag raced (going 100+ mph) a drunk friend.
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Post by jmei on Mar 2, 2023 13:36:49 GMT -5
Please move on. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Mar 2, 2023 12:14:59 GMT -5
Even beyond the games being shorter in total, the pitch clock has dramatically improved the rhythm of play. No more long pauses where a pitcher steps out and then a hitter steps out or a bunch of pickoff attempts. Imagine it'll be even more stark once the games start mattering.
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Post by jmei on Mar 2, 2023 12:12:25 GMT -5
Right, to be clear, I have no issue with ownership deciding to go for it and sign off on more spending. I just have to think that there were better ways to spend the money. Rather than signing Bogaerts, why not go after Judge, who is a better roster fit? (Instead, they currently have a good defensive SS (Tatis) as their everyday RF, a good defensive SS as their everyday 2B (Kim) and a good defensive 2B (Cronenworth) as their everyday 1B.) Or why not spread that money around (or trade some of those displaced players) so you're not relying on the corpse of Nelson Cruz at DH or Wacha and Nick Martinez in your rotation?
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