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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 22, 2021 18:55:07 GMT -5
Montgomery reminds me of E-Rod with a 93-94 FB and good change...but with greater efficiency. He's a solid pitcher. Stanton can suck, then go wild..streaky at least this year. Agree. But my point is more to the fact that if he goes 4-4 with 16 total bases and like 9 runs batted in… he still sucks. I love that he has a huge contract. What can I say, it’s a pretty unsophisticated opinion that I’m proud to have. 😀 I want every Yankee to suck every day, all the time. At 29 million, Stanton sucks. Still, he is dangerous.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 22, 2021 18:27:10 GMT -5
Montgomery reminds me of E-Rod with a 93-94 FB and good change...but with greater efficiency. He's a solid pitcher.
Stanton can suck, then go wild..streaky at least this year.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 22, 2021 18:14:27 GMT -5
I'm sick of this sitting Duran for lefties already. Let the kid play and wreak havoc on the basepaths. Also, not like Montgomery is Chris Sale in his prime. Or even, like, Robbie Ray. The Yankee starters have performed better than ours to date. Their offense has lagged ours. Yankee pitching has allowed 125 less hits than innings pitched. We are in a 1/1 ratio...big difference. Fortunately for us Kluber has been out and may be until September. Yes, we will be getting Sale back in maybe 3 weeks. Severino will also be back then for the Yanks....not same caliber as Sale but good. Our batting has been superior to theirs and we have scored about 90 more runs to date... again... big difference. However the Yankee offense has been on something of a rebound lately even as Judge and Urshela remain sidelined. Torres, LeMahieu, Odor are hot and some call-ups, due to incredible IL problems, have contributed. So can our pitching hold down their current offense enough and can our hitting give us enough against their statistically better pitching...? Obviously I would like this to be so. What happens at the deadline could hugely alter the dynamic.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2021 18:52:08 GMT -5
Does this streak imply that the Sox system is strong? Or does it not really matter in that context? It's certainly better than if they were getting killed every game of course, but not necessarily, no. In this case, I think it's in large part that the rest of their division, outside of Somerset, is kind of terrible. And keep in mind that given the way the schedule works this year, a 14-game win streak is basically one win on either side of a pair of series sweeps, in this case against very bad Reading (27-40) and Hartford (21-45). A team might be winning a lot of games because it has a lot of older players who are beating up on younger prospects on other teams. Conversely a team might be losing a lot because it has a lot of younger players who are being challenged with an aggressive assignment. But neither is universal either. So win-loss results aren't necessarily great indicators of system health prospect-wise. It's a nice-to-have rather than a good barometer, perhaps? Several years ago the Sox farm collectively had a substantially less than .500 record. I made the 'mistake' of implying that that could be an indication of our relative talent. I experienced some excoriation on the board which underlined that the minors were a breeding ground to foster a few good prospects and that team records don't much count. I agree in part but as of today, our 4 team collective minor league records show 37 games above .500....Yes older players may account for some differential as Chris advises, but dang I am a lot more positive seeing this year's results. Go Sox!!
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2021 18:08:56 GMT -5
Sea Dogs lead 7-1 after 3 in quest for 15th straight. 26 year old Granberg at .360...
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2021 8:13:20 GMT -5
I saw where FCL Sox were today listed at 6-5 after an 0-5 start. I thought the reported record was 7-5... Off topic but are you planning to see some FCL games when Mayer starts playing there? I plan to catch some FCL games before leaving for Maine 8/7...so Sox please sign him soon! I hope to take in a few 'Dogs' games while up yonder.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 20, 2021 14:47:30 GMT -5
I saw where FCL Sox were today listed at 6-5 after an 0-5 start. I thought the reported record was 7-5...
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 20, 2021 13:41:36 GMT -5
Can't see where that one went but seemed like good contact with the choke up. Kind of cracks me up to see a guy his size doing that, not that it's a bad thing. Hey, more guys should do it. In fact big guys should do it as much as any. They have more than enough power. Greater bat to ball speed and accuracy awaits. If the Thumper could do it....
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 18, 2021 17:04:46 GMT -5
Portland has now won 13 in a row!
Potts starting to come alive. 3 hits (including the granny) and a line drive sac fly.
Dogs had 19 hits.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 17, 2021 16:12:10 GMT -5
Well, I remember Chatham as having a pretty decent contact stick...not much power for good sized guy...but not a chump. I could see him making it in a utility type roll or back end bench guy.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 17, 2021 10:29:23 GMT -5
Bonaci with a first inning grand slam. Red Sox leading 8-0 already. Seabold with 3 innings, 2 hits and 5 KS
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 17, 2021 7:34:30 GMT -5
I'm torn because I want to beat the Yankees, but not enough so that they become sellers at the deadline. I still want them to give up prospects in order to make a run. And THEN fail. LOL, you want it all. Your cake and eat it to. I agree but will be satisfied with bouncing them. Ahhh...shadenfreude...how sweet the sound.😊
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 16, 2021 13:08:18 GMT -5
You never know who might be looking for a DH who can strikeout 40% of the time It's an under appreciated skill...
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 16, 2021 11:08:32 GMT -5
The trick with Groome is that the delays in his development have forced him onto the 40-man roster years before he should have been and he's already burning his first option year in A-ball. Sure, it's possible that everything falls into place (like starting now) and he suddenly rises through the system and is ready to be a full-time member of the big league roster by 2024 (which ideally would include a season like Houck is having this year in 2023, which would mean a season like Houck had last year, starting in AAA and ending in Boston, in 2022...) but that's really a glass-unequivocally-full, best-case scenario at this point. So if Chaim & Co., are planning for the possibility that the best-case scenario doesn't happen, they might be thinking about moving Groome to a team with more room to fit an upside guy like him onto their big league roster a little bit before he's ready. Given the good run he's currently on (which is proving that he's still got that upside despite pitching only 4 IP in actual games in the last four years), his trade value is probably pretty substantial right now although it could get even better if he continues to rise, perhaps to a cup of coffee in AA this year and then he performs well there the first half of next year.
Based on his two-forward, one-back history, are you willing to bank on that or do you see if he can help fortify your big league club for this year's stretch run?
Just to summarize the season so far ...
1.392 OPS, 18.69 ERA, first two starts. .674 OPS, 4.17 ERA, next 8 starts. ERA elevated by pitching poorly with men on, especially giving up a few jacks. .312 OPS, 3.18 ERA, last 2 starts. Ditto for the ERA. In his last 2 starts he faced 40 batters, struck out 18 (45%) and allowed 3 hits and 3 BB. A useful definition I invented for "dominance" is SO > IP > base runners. He's 18, 11.1, 6. That's ultra-dominance, if you can fix the HR-with-men-on problem.
I think a couple of starts in AA this year are almost certain. He's allowed .190 / .270 / .328 over his last 10 starts, which is not a guy who should be pitching at his current level, but the next. And there's an improving trend! The thing that puzzles me is the idea that he can now be expected to have a significant backwards step, just because his progress getting to this point had that structure. He had an injury that pretty much forced him to become a somewhat different pitcher. Figuring out your V2.0 is going to have that 2 forwards, 1 back pattern. Once you've figured it out, though, what's the rationale? So I actually think your best-case scenario is just a mildly optimistic one. I think a reasonable projection for him is a debut in early 2023 and in the rotation in 2024.
How did he change as a pitcher as a result of his surgery?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 16, 2021 10:09:18 GMT -5
What effect will a positive Covid test have on the availability of the Yankee players diagnosed? Will they automatically be put on IL?...If so, is there minimum time they would be out?
Will the Yankee situation with 6 guys testing positive...threaten playing games this weekend? Who makes that determination?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 16, 2021 9:50:15 GMT -5
Yeah that's probably fair. Especially since the number of RP who stay in any org for that long is quite slim. He could easily get to no. 2 on the list if he pitches like he has in 2020-21 through the end of the extension. By the way, Bob Stanley's line is great. He was incredibly effective but didn't strike anyone out - 693 in 1707 IP! Even in his prime from 77-85 he only had 483 in 1291 innings. Radatz was indeed a monster... for three seasons basically. Sox wore Radatz out...Back then it 'seemed' he was pitching every other game and 2-3 innings at a time. He was striking out way more than a batter an inning in a bygone, protect the plate era...early 60s. Goodness knows what his strikeout rate would have been in this free swinging day. He had that signature, exultant throwing up of his arms after closing yet another game. Back then he was one of the few joyful reasons to watch the Sox.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 16, 2021 9:31:41 GMT -5
RE: Kavadas that's a first baseman if I've ever seen one. Lol. It warms the heart, doesn’t it? Watching Kavadas’ Paul Bunyan hacks, one can’t help being reminded of a bygone era. Big Klu!
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 15, 2021 21:41:30 GMT -5
Anthony Rizzo to the Sox makes a ton of sense. Cubs are going nowhere and figure to move him at the deadline. I’m wondering what the price would be for a rental like that... Given that, would you be willing to put Casas and/or Duran on the table?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 15, 2021 16:55:11 GMT -5
I would be extremely surprised if Chaim doesn't come out on August 1st announcing that Chris Sale, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houk were their additions and are better than any other additions they could have made (while avoiding questions on whether the Red Sox were just trying to stay under the tax). And a part of me hopes so. Chaim obviously wants to build from a good farm base and acquiring a good player, even from a motivated seller, will likely compromise that. I prefer to see us build for a long, competitive run over a short term 'hope for'. I would think that Rizzo or a top reliever like Kimbrel might cost a Duran. I would demand that if the situation were reversed and I think a lot of those here would too.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 15, 2021 16:35:33 GMT -5
Oh boy! This thread is quickly turning into one of them trade proposals subforum 😥 I don't know what you mean. I suggest we trade big Joe Davis to the Dodgers and get Mookie back. I hear Mookie has been struggeling, his stats are worse than Joes (.839 vs. 0.954) and Joe is at least one inch taller. The Dodgers will gladly accept. Andriese in as a sweetener and LA pays 30% of Mookie's salary. Once again, hats off to Chaim!
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 15, 2021 6:24:04 GMT -5
Wow! That looked like Awesome bat speed! Is his stance more upright now?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2021 21:36:00 GMT -5
Two arguments against Rizzo: 1) He's been kind of mediocre since the start of 2020 (.236/.342/.423, though his xwOBA has been a bit higher than his wOBA). 2) He's declined to get a covid vaccine, and with cases on the rise again you'd want to factor in the possibility of his getting covid. Who cares about C19. It is a non factor is 99/100 healthy people. Nope....I care and we should care. 600,000 plus Nationwide dead. 1.8% death rate, (18 times that of flu), 20% with significant illness and many with long term problems regardless of machismo. Outbreak might shut down Sox for a period...as it has for other teams to date. New Delta variant is reportedly more transmissible and perhaps more severe. The vaccines are safe, protective and will shortly get FDA approval as have polio, smallpox and flu inoculations. But Rizzo was a favorite of mine before his decline. I'm not sure he is any better than Franchy. Free Franchy!
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2021 16:08:15 GMT -5
No. $11,359,600 is the Red Sox draft cap. You want to subtract the first number ($11,841,200) from the +5% number. This projection has them within $100k of the +5% number, and it likely gets a lot closer with guys getting a few grand here or there that make the round numbers less round. Sorry..Read too quickly....Thought too slowly. Glad that there was no exam. Thanks. Basically we've got 100k + or - in addition to the available $125k per to sign the others you deemed 'unlikely' to sign...Makes sense. At least we took a shot.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 14, 2021 13:49:23 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,250,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,250,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000 5 Nathan Hickey $410,100 (slot) 6 Daniel McElveny $250,000 7 Wyatt Olds $150,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000 9 Tyler Miller $150,000 10 Matt Litwicki $50,000 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $300,000 ($175k towards cap) 13 Zach Ehrhard $150,000 ($25k over cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 14 Jacob Webb 18 Phillip Sikes 19 Tyler Uberstine Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,841,200 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Payton Green 16 BJ Vela 17 Luis Guerrero 20 Josh Hood So on those figures we have about $568,000 (11,927,000-11,359,000) to use on the tough signs (plus $125k per)?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 13, 2021 21:03:45 GMT -5
His big knock to me is his poor defense in the outfield. He really only defensively plays at first base in my eyes, and that changes everything when it comes to expectations at the plate. Didn’t think he’d be too good out there at 6’3 240. He hasn’t been out there long though I’d imagine, right? Maybe room to become a 40 out there Boy has he packed on weight (listed at 244) since I saw him in the GCL....Unlikely that he is a gazelle at that poundage.
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