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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 29, 2022 10:12:28 GMT -5
I wrote this during the layoff ...
Fun Facts:
Number of teams that have swept the CS: 9 Average number of games won in the WS by those teams: 1.56 Their record: 2 - 7 Most common outcome: swept (3 times) Average number of days off for the 9 teams that swept the CS: 5.67 For their opponents: 2.33
Three of these series were won by a clear favorite and a 4th (Giants and Royals 2014) looked like a tossup and went 7.
Of the five upsets, two were won by the sweepers. The '19 Nats, a 93-win team, swept the Cards and then beat the 107-win Astros in 7 despite having 6 days of rest to the Astro's 2. The '95 Braves, a 90-win team, swept the Reds and then beat the 100-win Indians in 6 despite having 6 days rest to the Indians 3. (So much for the extra-rest penalty.)
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If the Phillies win, it will be the 4th upset of a sweeping team, but the first with no extra-rest factor. It seems to me that the extra rest can be a penalty, but only if you do too little to counteract it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2022 2:49:10 GMT -5
In the first 13 years of the Division Series era, 6 teams won the WS while losing 3 or fewer games along the way (table below).
In the subsequent 13 years, it's happened only once. You know who that is. It's kind of startling that we already know it's it's going to happen again, unless the Phillies win in 7. And in fact this is the first time in this era that the WS teams have only 1 loss between them, and it's even more impressive when you factor in the Phillies' 2 extra wins in the WC round. The two teams are 16-1 in the post-season between them, and that's the best ever, easily more impressive than the few 6-0 combos in the original CS format.
And before you dismiss the Phillies as merely hot, they played at a 96-win pace after changing managers.
Year Team Losses Wins Opp 1 Opp 2 Opp 3 Ave 1995 Braves 3 90 86.6 95.6 112.5 98.3 1998 Yankees 2 114 88 89 98 91.7 1999 Yankees 1 98 95 94 103 97.3 2005 White Sox 1 99 95 95 89 93.0 2007 Red Sox 3 96 94 96 90 93.3 2008 Phillies 3 92 90 84 97 90.3 2018 Red Sox 3 108 100 104 97 100.3
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2022 13:58:01 GMT -5
I've been busy watching every single game of this tremendous post-season (except the first Phillies / Cardinals WC game, the results of which convinced me to not miss another game). That's the only reason I haven't posted about any of it. And by "watching" I mean scoring every pitch (with a few exceptions). You can watch four games in a day (and also do trivial things like eating and sleeping) by fast-forwarding between pitches in a game or two.
An observation: I was severely pissed that Abreu lost the 1-hitter with one out to go, because that would have been the third one-hitter of the post-season, and that's never happened before.
As it is, though, the Padres became the first team to throw a one-hitter and get one-hit in the same post-season. Musgrove, Suarez, and Hader one-hit the Mets to win their W/C series, and then Wheeler, Dominguez, and Alvarafo one-hit the Padres in game 1 of the NLCS. In both games the sole hit came in the 5th and was by the first baseman (Alonso, Myers).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2022 16:23:08 GMT -5
I've been saying that the Eovaldi replacement would he a 2/3 sort of starter that they thought had further upside (3 to 2, or less, likely 2 to ace). Sort of the opposite of Eduardo Rodriguez.
But there just doesn't seem to be a lot of money that could be spend on DH and corner OF (I hope to post that analysis tonight). And the way Bloom and Kennedy (and Henry, by reports) are talking, they seem to understand that it's time to attack the absurd idea that Bloom was brought aboard to turn the Sox into Tampa Bay North.
I think the big discussion right now in Baseball Opps is whether their first target should be Verlander or deGrom.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2022 18:13:34 GMT -5
Moved to a more appropriate thread . I am a wee bit tired of the “ifs and buts” arguments. Where would the Blue Jays be in a division with the Brewers? If the Sox were playing in my old Pony League, they’d be crushing it. But you play the schedule you get… and you know what it is. If the Royals played in a big market, they’d get to spend more on players. If the Marlins didn’t have cheap owners, they could have kept more of their talent. If, if, if… As for this trade, yeah, they saved money, but not enough to make a difference — after wasting money on Diekman. McGuire looks fine. He’ll be serviceable. I’m less impressed by Wong, so they might still need a second catcher, though now it won’t have to be an A-lister. The point of that data was to counter the frequent assertions about how good the team actually has been in terms of talent. Naive people are looking only at the W/L record, ignoring the historic strength of their divisional opponents, ignoring the extraordinary rash of injuries and their timing (e.g., that necessitated the use of four rookie pitchers in the rotation together), ignoring the awful clutch hitting, and ignoring all the players who played hurt and were subpar -- the latter two both responses to the team collapsing because of all the injuries -- and concluding that we were awful and hence have no chance to compete next year. No, in terms of talent they were "really good" (quoting some guy name Cora) and now that they've shed some contracts there's a clear path to be even better.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2022 5:15:40 GMT -5
At the end of the day, the slight value upgrade Bloom won with the McGuire trade (if you even want to make this argument) is kind of irrelevant to me. Bloom's certainly made a few savvy deals here and there but bottom line we're three years into the Bloom era and the Sox are in last place, have holes all. over. the. roster. next year with a middling farm system and still somehow haven't been able to stay under the CBT. Tell me this was part of the plan. Please, pleas, share with us the name of the planet you're living on, because it surely can't be Earth.
I'm going to adjust fWAR with cluch hitting, and that actually hurts McGuire more than Vazquez.
CV had 1.2 WAR (after losing 0.5 wins of clutch) in 689 defensive innings. That's 1.8 per 120 games.
McGuire has 0.8 WAR (after losing 0.4) in 211 innings. That's 4.0 WAR per 120 games.
We also essentially traded Jake Diekmann, who was worthless, for two interesting prospects.
We gave up 1/3 season of control of Vazquez and got 3 years of control of McGuire.
We saved $1.4M of payroll this year, and likely quite a bit in the future.
Vazquez for the Astros has -0.6 WAR (after also losing 0.4) in 216 innings, which is -2.9 WAR per 120 G, a/k/a "god-awful."
Even if McGuire ends up being just an excellent backup, getting him for two months of Jake Diekmann (who had -0.8 WAR for the Wrong Sox) was a steal. We don't know how well CV would have played had we kept him, but it was not going to be 4.0 WAR per season.
bottom line we're three years into the Bloom era and almost made it to the World Series in year 2.
... the Sox are in last place with a 76-84 record, which would be 84-76 if they'd played in the AL West (that's 3rd place) and 86-74 if they'd played in the AL Central, in second and tied with the Rays for a wild card berth, and 87-73 in the NL Central, also in second and tied for the last W/C. And people would be over the moon that we did this despite the incredible litany of injuries.
(In a neutral division we're 82-78. We'd be in 4th place (of 7) in the NL East and West.)
I think everyone believes the Brewers had a heck of a good season, as they were only eliminated yesterday, but they'd be 2 games behind us if they were in our division.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2022 3:03:53 GMT -5
Who cares about moving up or down a spot in the draft order? The odds that the team next to us wants the exact same player are small enough, let's just enjoy the game and hope for a few more enjoyable games before the end of the year. I would love a Red Sox sweep of the Rays. The Rays wouldn't mind, either. No danger of accidentally moving up to the 5 seed and facing the Jays and then, if they win, the Astros, versus the Guardians and then the Yankees.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2022 1:50:51 GMT -5
All of the current 5 and 6 seeds except the Phillies should be tanking their final series, and then explaining that they had no choice because the 6 seed is hugely better to have than the 5. Phillies should start tanking now that they've clinched.
AL: 6 plays Guardians and then the Yankees; 5 get the Blue Jays then the Astros.
NL: 6 plays the Cardinals and then the Braves; 5 gets the Mets and then the Dodgers.
And it's not like nobody could see this coming. At least one runner-up has had a better record the the weakest division winner in 21 of the 25 seasons with three divisions. 39% of all runners-up have done that, and 7% have tied the worst division champ, and more than half of those would have won a proper tie-breaker (record of the whole division in games outside).
In the AL, the Mariners and Rays both lost their game 1. Padres won theirs. Rays didn't seem to be trying too hard to win, with Bruyan (41 OPS+) leading off and Helget (6.75 ERA) pitching the rest of the way; both were added to the roster for this series.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 20:07:13 GMT -5
Can you bring in 3 such bullpen guys with the money they'll need to spend elsewhere though? Thinking SP, RF, SS and maybe Devers extension when I say that. Third legit FA bullpen arm just seems like more of a nice-to-have over just carrying, say, Kelly on the MLB roster to start the year. I do think nobody from the Ort, German, Bazardo crew stepping up has set the ideal minimum of legit RP acquisitions at 2 though. I just checked Kelly's xwOBA and it's .260, quite a bit better than his wOBA of .316. I'll have to look at it broken down by batted ball type to gets a truer picture.
But here's a useful set of facts which I am looking up right now. Average wOBA or xwOBA by role (where the 30 best relievers are regarded as closers, etc,):
.241 closer .262 8th .273 7th .288 6th
.240 / .237 Whitlock, relief
.250 / .255 Schreiber .260 / .316 Kelly .289 / .262 Houck .292 / .301 Bazardo .299 / .276 Barnes, August on .353 / .366 Ort (.325 / .381 since FB velo increase) .395 / .508 German
Houck as a starter was .059 / .042 worse, Whitlock as a starter was .075 / .075 worse, but was really hurting for most of that.
I'll have to get the true xwOBA figures to get a better handle on whether they need a RH acquisition. Adding another guy who should be good (intermediate between known quantity and taking a flyer, i.e. reasonably confident about upside) might well be
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 12:01:45 GMT -5
It's pretty simple: add a righty and two lefties, and not guys who might be really good but that you expect will be really good.
Ort, Kelly, and German have zero MLB roster spots saved for them. If they are 8 through 10 on your bullpen depth chart, they will see plenty of MLB action because of injuries.
Sale, X, Wacha, Bello, Whitlock, Pivetta.
Crawford as long man and spot starter
Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, and
Right, lefty, lefty.
In the NRI world, load up on potential Brasier / Schreiber breakthroughs (including Taylor; 40-man crunches are endemic among good teams and I can't see anyone giving him a 40-man spot).
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An argument that good relief pitching may well be undervalued by modern analytics ...
A study I may or may not do: is there any evidence that bad bullpen performance leads to bad clutch hitting, because of its impact on team psychology? I've already noticed that team clutch hitting seems to be streaky. I'm pretty sure that first half clutch performance (offense + defense) is not statistically predictive, because I've seen that data. But that doesn't mean that a team that was un-clutch for most or all season was just unlucky. It means that half of the teams that were significantly un-clutch in the first half straightened things out and performed well in the clutch in the second half.
I don't think you can deny that hitters perform badly in the clutch when they are pressing. We saw that all year. And it just seems to me that an effective, trustworthy bullpen sets a tone for confident performances in every aspect of play. Expecting to win is huge.
If you do decide to spend more money (or prospect talent) on the bullpen, the challenge of course is identifying guys who will be good again next year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2022 5:24:42 GMT -5
Phillies have the tiebreaker over Brewers, so their magic number to clinch the WC is 1.
The seeding races are rather better. Only the Mets (assuming the Braves clinch) are locked in, to the 4 seed. All the trailing teams have the tiebreaker.
Mariners have the tiebreaker over Jays, so the Jays magic numbers for the 4 seed is 2.
Rays have tiebreaker over Mariners, so the Mariners magic number for the 5 seed is 3.
Phillies have the tiebreaker over Padres, so the Padres magic number for the 5 seed is 3.
Padres have the breaker over the Brewers, so if the Brewers pull a miracle they'll be the 6 seed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 12:50:46 GMT -5
Tonight features what has to be the most important game # 159 (or 151 pre-expansion) in MLB history.
Whoever wins tonight also grabs the tie-breaker. If the Braves complete a sweep, their magic number is 1.
But if the Mets win, they're in virtual first with a magic number of 3. And they finish the season at home against the Nats while the Braves are in Miami, a better club, and the Braves actually have the worse of the pitching matchups in their games 1 and 2, although the offense and bullpens still make them favorites. But it's much easier to see the Braves winning just 2 of 3 than the Mets, which gives the Mets extra leeway if they grab the advantage.
Looking at offense and bullpens since the trade deadline, offenses are identical but the Braves have a .278 to .298 wOBA (average expected and actual) edge in the pen, plus home field (worth .007), more than enough to offset a slight edge (.002) for Bassitt over Morton.
The other thing at stake here is the playoff seeding. Whoever gets the first round bye also gets the winner of the Cards / Phillies or Brewers series in the NLDS. They'll be heavily favored to advance to the NLCS, where they'll have a real chance of upsetting the Dodgers. Whoever gets the WC, assuming they get past the Padres in round 1, gets the Dodgers in the division series, without being able to set up their rotation as the Dodgers can.
Because of the indefensible decision to give the third-best division winner the 3 seed, most of the playoff matchups are unfair. Most egreiously, you've got the Rays on the road for three games against the Guardians when they'd be 7 games ahead of them in a balanced schedule.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 5:21:54 GMT -5
Tonight features what has to be the most important game # 159 (or 151 pre-expansion) in MLB history.
Whoever wins tonight also grabs the tie-breaker. If the Braves complete a sweep, their magic number is 1.
But if the Mets win, they're in virtual first with a magic number of 3. And they finish the season at home against the Nats while the Braves are in Miami, a better club, and the Braves actually have the worse of the pitching matchups in their games 1 and 2, although the offense and bullpens still make them favorites. But it's much easier to see the Braves winning just 2 of 3 than the Mets, which gives the Mets extra leeway if they grab the advantage.
Looking at offense and bullpens since the trade deadline, offenses are identical but the Braves have a .278 to .298 wOBA (average expected and actual) edge in the pen, plus home field (worth .007), more than enough to offset a slight edge (.002) for Bassitt over Morton.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2022 4:55:51 GMT -5
It seems as if a majority of posters here are non-blissfully unaware of the reality of a ludicrous schedule where a team plays 47% of their schedule against the same four clubs ... which in the case of the Red Sox, were in actuality the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best teams in the league.
Ignoring the fact that the Sox roster was pretty clearly very good at beating up on bad clubs and struggled against good ones, and using a generic adjustment for the quality of each division, you have the following ranking for teams 5 through 8:
87-71 Orioles
85-72 Mariners
85-73 Guardians 81-77 Red Sox
If MLB had instituted 14 games in the division this year, instead of next and we had played just as crappy against the division and as well against everyone else ... that's also 81-77.
And the team hit terribly in the clutch most of the season, which is largely non-predictive from one year to the next.
BTW, note that every AL East team (collective .579 ball against everyone else) gets a better draft pick than they deserve, and every AL Central team (.447) gets a worse one, which perpetuates the imbalance. The Central divisions of both leagues have sucked going back to different front office and different players.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2022 20:50:39 GMT -5
Cant say say I am sorry I missed humiliation number two. Looks like Bello got hammered and the offense never got on the plane in Boston. Bello gave up two hits that were hard-hit and had an xBA of .200 or better, a 2-out, base-empty double by Hernandez in the 3rd and a liner by Springer leading off the 4th.
He gave up four fly balls that were hit 72.4, 77.5, 82.0, and 87.0, with launch angles of 16, 16, 17, and 24, distances of 206, 213, 229, and 238, and XBA's of .800, .920 ,940, and .950. Two of those four started the 2nd inning, sandwiched around a 75.7, 31 degrees, .310 fly to LF that Phan backed up on and that some LFers might have made a very nice catch on, and a wild pitch. After that there was another WP, and that was the first 2 runs.
The second two runs scored via the Hernandrz 2-out double, a walk, and the last of the magic semi-bloopers, a double to right by Danny Jansen, who had the RBI magic blooper in the first. I believe some guys have a skill for hitting bloop singles (Xander seems to) but I don't think that too many of them are backup catchers.
Meanwile, Bello pitched out of a cheapo jam in the first, starting with Springer's magic blooper and a ball Bichette pounded into the ground for a .190 xBA single; he fanned Guerrrero and Kirk and got Chapman on an easy grounder. He did the same think in the 4th when Bichette followed Springer's legit single with a 93.8, .350 blooper to right. He got Guerrero to hit a 69.4, 3-foot grounder to Raffy, then threw seven straight balls but came back to get Chapman to hit a .300 xBA grounder for a GDP.
The Jays went 6 for 6 on expected hits and 4 for 11 on expected outs, 2 more than you ordinarily get by luck. None of the outs were remotely lucky.
I just ran the numbers, and teams average 0.37 bloop or flare hits (fly ball hits of less than 300 feet) per game. One of every 65 balls put into play is a bloop or flare hit.
But wait, there's more! How common is a magic semi-blooper, one with an xBA of .700 or better? One in 149 balls in play (with a .914 BA). Bello's, of course, had extra-special magic, all with .800 xBA or better ... that's 1 in 232 balls put into play (with a .947 BA).
So giving up 4 bloop / flare hits, magic or otherwise, out of 16 balls put in play is ... 4 more than expected. Every one of those balls would have been an out had the hitters made somewhat better contact.
But wait, there's even more! All four magic bloopers were untimely. Two led off innings, and the other two each came with 2 runners on, and scored 3 of them.
If you turn the six cheap hits into outs, the 4 runs given up in the first 3 innings become ... five scoreless innings. The final game box score line is 6 4 0 0 2 4.
In both versions, he faces Springer, a red-hot Bichette, Guerrero, Kirk, and Chapman for a third time and is not score on.
I've been meaning to do a study of whether any hitters or pitchers have a blooper skill or weakness, respectively. That should happen in the off-season ...
Edit: using the 1 in 150 chance of a ball put into play being a .700+ xBA fly ball of less than 300 feet ... the odds of Bello giving up 4 out of 16 are about 300,000 to 1. See the Bello thread for what that might mean.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2022 17:17:51 GMT -5
I've got Casas' splits in this 34 PA hot streak, by opposing pitcher quality.
Note that the smaller the sample is here, the more you want to measure what the pitchers faced have done against all batters. What we're looking for here is evidence that the hot streak has been bolstered by feasting off of subpar pitching. The results at best will be mildly or somewhat encouraging or discouraging, but that's better than nothing!
All numbers are xwOBA / wOBA
Overall .440 / .599 Casas .298 / .289 Opposing pitcher allowed .276 / .268 Ditto, with estimated adjustment for all pitchers being from AL East
Really good pitching overall.
Those with a small sample-size aversion are encouraged to stop here!
Vs RHP (24 PA)
.503 / .651 .312 / .303 .288 / .280
Vs LHP (10 PA)
.288 / .472 (10 PA)
.266 / .257 246 / .236
Or here. Really!
I broke both splits down into two buckets, elite versus others, largely because it was easy to do and I was curious. Yeah, Silly Sample Sizes, but the overall pattern might tell you something. (Because AL East, he hasn't faced any bad pitchers in this stretch, and in fact when you try to split the other RHP into above average and below, it's obviously a noisy result.)
Elite RHP (7 PA) .425 / .422 .270 / .247 .250 / .228 (Cole, Logan Gillaspie, Scott Efross, Ron Marinaccio, Loasisiga)
Other RHP (17 PA)
.535/ .746 .329 / .326 .304 / .301
In this SSSS, there's no discernible split between his relative performance against the elite (185 xwOBA+) and others (176) pitchers. That's encouraging, and you know by how much!
Elite LHP (7 PA) .186 / .351 .250 / .210 .232 / .194 (Cortes, Keagen Akin, Chapman, Cionel Perez)
He's been lucky against the elite guys, but below average by xwOBA.
Other LHP (3) .529 / .754 .303 / .368 .280 / .341
It's just 3 PA, so this may well not be meaningful, but the big take-home point here is that he's faced mostly elite LHP and hasn't been awful.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2022 13:55:23 GMT -5
0:32-0:45 is a grand master level cliche string.
"I chase OBP, not SLG." MORE OF THIS IN THE RED SOX LINEUP PLEASE.
It sounded as if he's been collecting them in a notebook!
Two reactions to this interview:
1) Given how serious he seems on the field, it was great to see how much he loves the game, and to hear how much fun he's actually having.
2) This is the intelligence of Lars Anderson with a hugely welcome 180 degree twist, all the eccentricity and self-doubt replaced by an extraordinary level of groundedness, and huge self confidence that doesn't seem to have any attached egocentricity.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 23:00:28 GMT -5
I'd have to find the episode it was on specifically, but I remember Eno Sarris answering a question about LH/RH splits on the Rates and Barrels podcast.. I believe it was something like 1,000 PAs needed for handedness splits to normalize. I'll look for it later in case anyone wants to listen to it. By contrast, walk rate stabilizes at around 120 PAs. Casas is at 21.8% after 78 PAs. If he doesn't draw a single walk in his next 42 PAs he'd still reach that stabilization point with a 14% walk rate. I'd bet that O-swing stabilizes a bit quicker.
Casas is now hitting .213 / .385 / .475. The hot streak is now 34 PA and is .435 / .618 / .870. That's been done against better-than-average pitching; I'll have those numbers tomorrow.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 13:00:39 GMT -5
This is getting silly.
So, I've constructed objective similarity scores for the two aspects of plate discipline, swing decisions and swing results.
Swing decisions uses Zone%, O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%, weighted equally.
Swing results uses Zone%, O-Contact%, and Z-Contact%, weighted equally.
I first verified that Juan Soto is a crazy good comp for Swing Decisions (minimum 350 PA):
46.7, 16.5, 57.0 Casas
47.0, 16.2, 56.5 Soto (Sim Score 96.7; next best is Max Muncy, 79.3)
And here's the comp for Swing Results:
46.7, 42.9, 82.4 Casas 47.3, 45.8, 83.0 Player X (Sim Score 91.2; next best is Jeremy Pena, 90.7)
Who's Player X?
Take the silliest possible guess. As in, if this were fiction, you'd laugh at the author for thinking we'd believe that.
Yup, it's Aaron Judge.
Note that I put little or not stock on this one. It's just like the universe is scamming me to make me as high as possible on Casas.
If Casas stays hot, the second comp will change, as he his Z-Contact cold was 79.3 and is 88.9 in his hot streak. That's 12th percentile to 80th. I bet all sluggers do this, and we'll need a much larger sample size to get a handle on his Z-Contact overall.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 12:22:04 GMT -5
This is getting silly.
So, I've constructed objective similarity scores for the two aspects of plate discipline, swing decisions and swing results.
Swing decisions uses Zone%, O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%, weighted equally.
Swing results uses Zone%, O-Contact%, and Z-Contact%, weighted equally.
I first verified that Juan Soto is a crazy good comp for Swing Decisions (minimum 350 PA):
46.7, 16.5, 57.0 Casas
47.0, 16.2, 56.5 Soto (Sim Score 96.7; next best is Max Muncy, 79.3)
And here's the comp for Swing Results:
46.7, 42.9, 82.4 Casas 47.3, 45.8, 83.0 Player X (Sim Score 91.2; next best is Jeremy Pena, 90.7)
Who's Player X?
Take the silliest possible guess. As in, if this were fiction, you'd laugh at the author for thinking we'd believe that.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2022 3:18:32 GMT -5
Red Sox Win Probability Added, 2020-2022
7.22 Devers 4.98 Verdugo 2.36 Bogaerts 1.49 Moreland 0.99 Arroyo 0.60 Schwarber 0.57 Casas --other current players 0.29 Refsnyder 0.12 McGwire 0.04 Almonte -.01 Chang -.07 Wong -.08 Davis, J. -.16 Downs -.30 Hosmer -.44 Story
-.45 Martinez -.52 Cordero -.53 Duran -.61 Pham -.67 Hernandez -1.15 Dalbec
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2022 21:45:26 GMT -5
.079 / .205 / .237, 44 PA in 14 G. .400/ .600 / .850, 30 PA in 7 G.
12 SO, 6 BB 5 SO, 10 BB
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2022 4:51:26 GMT -5
505 players have 70+ PA. Casas ranks 1st in lowest O-Swing%.
O-Swing, Z-Swing, overall Swing %:
Player A: 15.3, 56.6, 35.1 Player B: 16.1, 56.4, 35.1
A = Casas B = Soto
Soto makes better contact, though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2022 3:37:28 GMT -5
LOL at judge not a good fit for fenway. The guy is a pull hitter who hits the ball over 500â. He would eat that green monster alive. 50 home runs and 50 doubles. Some Red Sox fans are delusional I think the point would be that if he hits it 500 feet he doesn't benefit from LF at Fenway cuz it'd be gone out of any ballpark.
I also don't think it's right that Judge is a pull hitter. He hits it to all fields. But that means he probably loses more homers on opposite field fly ballls at Fenway than elsewhere. According to baseballsavant he would have 57 expected home runs at Fenway, which would be seventh lowest of all ballparks.
Over the last 3 seasons Judge is just 6th in MLB in pulled homers by RHB, 3rd in straightaway, and first in opposite field. He has 29, Stanton has 26, and Vlad is 3rd with 19.
And for Fenway you want a guy whose average launch angle on his pulled homers is high. There are 88 RHB who have 20+ pulled homers the last 3 years. Some interesting ranks in highest average launch angle:
4 Bobby Dalbec 20 Trevor Story 21 Xander Bogaerts
43 Hunter Renfoe 51 Aaron Judge
77 Kiké Hernandez (I can recall at least a few homers turned into singles by the Wall)
88 Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge is not going to play the rest of his career in a home park that is below average for his hitting homers. Fenway would have cost him 15 homers in his career so far. It's also been speculated that he'll want a big-market team, worthy of his fame. So Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, White Sox look like credible landing spaces. Of that bunch, the Other Sox would be the best park for his homer totals.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2022 20:59:08 GMT -5
Casas gets his OPS over .800.
.182 / .348 / .455.
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