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Yoenis Cespedes
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 6, 2014 22:44:35 GMT -5
This discussion was going on in the main board, but I figured it was more appropriate here. Mods can move posts here, if they want.
It ended with jmei saying :
I really like the idea of trading Cespedes in general for the reasons jmei outlined in the other thread: there is one more outfielder currently on the roster for next year than we have a spot for and Cespedes is generally the kind of player who's trade/free agent value is likely to be higher than his on-field value. However, I'm not too sold on those pitchers as returns. Both Latos and Leake have essentially been league average pitchers this year (plus or minus a little depending on which metric you use). Latos has a solid history of being much better, but he's lost a decent amount of velocity as I said in his thread, so there's certainly no guarantee that he'll return to that level of performance. Leake has put up some nice improvements in his peripherals this year, but he's still only been a 94 xFIP- pitcher, and worse than that by FIP or ERA. I'm not sure either one of them project to be a #2 starter. To me, the big benefit of trading Cespedes is that you could really get a very good return for him without hurting the team too much because of the outfield surplus, but I'm not sure you get that return in Latos or Leake.
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Post by artfuldodger on Sept 7, 2014 5:10:43 GMT -5
Agree. The Red Sox have been looking for a young power hitting outfielder for awhile. Cespedes has fit in well. Posters have argued that Cespedes will be difficult to resign. Latos may be difficult to sign before free agency as well. I believe that it would only make sense to trade him for a pitcher that can be a 1 or a 2 , and is signed for multiple years at a reasonable salary. In other words, I do not believe Cespedes will be going anywhere this offseason.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Sept 7, 2014 7:00:06 GMT -5
I don't think cespy is going anywhere, he's been an RBI machine since getting to fenway and I love the thought of a Cespedes-Castillo-Betts outfield for 2015. The OF logjam can be alleviated in many ways, and I think a surprising possibility no one is talking about is a Napoli trade- he has more value than Craig at this point and could get a good prospect in return since he is a top flight defender, clubhouse guy, and a guy who can hit some dingers
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Post by godot on Sept 7, 2014 7:59:59 GMT -5
Jmie has it in his mind that Cespedes is not as good as some say, probably because he does not walk much, and is not worth the money he may fetch on the market, so trade him for some pitcher. Cespedes is locked in now and is going up the middle. If he gets pull happy, then will come the bad streaks. He is a free swinger, no doubt, but somewhat in the mold of a Beltre, and I recall some not liking Beltre because he did not walk. Regardless, the Sox can get a good gauge on him the rest of this year and into next.
Personally, feel that if he hits continues to hit well, his market value will go up, and they will trade him regardless of his value to the team. When on, he is a great compliment to Papi, and gives them the bat they need. Hitters like him can have a synergistic value to the rest of the lineup, just like Ellsbury.
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Post by bryce on Sept 7, 2014 8:17:35 GMT -5
This discussion was going on in the main board, but I figured it was more appropriate here. Mods can move posts here, if they want. It ended with jmei saying : I really like the idea of trading Cespedes in general for the reasons jmei outlined in the other thread: there is one more outfielder currently on the roster for next year than we have a spot for and Cespedes is generally the kind of player who's trade/free agent value is likely to be higher than his on-field value. However, I'm not too sold on those pitchers as returns. Both Latos and Leake have essentially been league average pitchers this year (plus or minus a little depending on which metric you use). Latos has a solid history of being much better, but he's lost a decent amount of velocity as I said in his thread, so there's certainly no guarantee that he'll return to that level of performance. Leake has put up some nice improvements in his peripherals this year, but he's still only been a 94 xFIP- pitcher, and worse than that by FIP or ERA. I'm not sure either one of them project to be a #2 starter. To me, the big benefit of trading Cespedes is that you could really get a very good return for him without hurting the team too much because of the outfield surplus, but I'm not sure you get that return in Latos or Leake. I do really agree with you. But it seems Reds is prefer Betts to Cespedes according to some resources. If we send Cespedes,Reds will be only willing to give us Mike Leake.
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2014 14:17:03 GMT -5
I'll admit that I haven't looked too deeply into Latos or Leake, so I'm happy to read any relevant analysis. I'd previously mentioned why I think Latos is a fine bounce-back candidate-- he dealt with some injuries this year which look ones that won't be long-term issues, and there's a good chance at least some of his velo will return once he heals up and has a full offseason and Spring Training. If the medicals check out, I'm certainly willing to take a chance on a 27-year-old pitcher with a career 3.64 SIERA and lights-out stuff. As for Leake, a 94 xFIP- is nothing to sneeze at-- our own Jon Lester, for instance, averaged a 94 xFIP- during the 2012-13 period. And while I agree that he's probably more of a slightly above-average third starter than a clearly above-average second starter going forward, that's still significantly better than the Ranaudo/Webster/Workman-types that currently project to fill the last rotation spot, and I think the difference between Leake and Ranaudo is greater than the difference between Cespedes and Craig/Nava/Victorino. (Plus, Leake has the added benefit of being able to be offered a QO at the end of the season.)
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Post by artfuldodger on Sept 8, 2014 18:10:31 GMT -5
Jmei, I would think the better comparison is potential Free Agent pitcher signed. (and the cost to do so) vs Latos or Leake (and the coat of Cespedes).
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 9, 2014 7:32:42 GMT -5
I have no idea what it'd take to sign Cespedes long term so this assumes it's reasonable to do so. Let's say 5/90ish...
In any event, I want this team to keep him now that I've seen him up close. He has plenty of fakes like shaky D and poor discipline at the plate etc. however, he brings an element of energy and excitement that teams need. Stat heads (minus Eric) will kill me for this, but the moment never seems to big for him. The fact he's a good player and brings these other qualities makes me want the Sox to keep him around.
The baseball season is a long grind. Cespedes feels like the type of guy who will always bring energy and help a team through tough times. Even if he's a diva at times.
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Post by artfuldodger on Sept 11, 2014 4:18:28 GMT -5
I think Hunter Pence money 5/90 is a fair amount to resign Cespedes. If he would extend for that, I would plug in LF and look to upgrade elsewhere.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2014 0:59:24 GMT -5
You really don't know how valuable Cespedes is until you figure out whether his RISP and leverage splits, which are almost silly good, are for real. Because if they are, not only is he more valuable than his metrics (other than WPA, which will measure this effect pretty well), there's a chance you can improve his bases-empty and low-leverage numbers by figuring out what he's doing better when it's really important.
OTOH, if those numbers are flukes, then you really should trade him to someone who believes they're for real.
As soon as the season is over I'm going to try to answer this question.
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Post by jdb on Sept 29, 2014 10:10:38 GMT -5
I just can't see how Cespedes fits next year. Given our righty heavy lineup Nava seems like a keeper and maybe platoon him with one of Craig or Victorino. Reds seem like a good trade partner but some rumors have them maxed out on payroll so who knows if they would be interested. Anyone think the Mariners make sense? Any other team?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2014 11:58:30 GMT -5
I would fish with him to any team looking for a power OF bat. Maybe the Mariners would trade Paxton if we added a but more. Or the Reds like previously stated. I think Cespedes is worth more in trade than he should be, especially considering he only has one year left. I'd support us trading him.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2014 12:04:45 GMT -5
Also maybe the Royals would have interest. Moustakas + Almonte? Maybe Moose + Manaea if Dayton Moore proves to be stupid as he has in the past.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 29, 2014 12:12:02 GMT -5
I would fish with him to any team looking for a power OF bat. Maybe the Mariners would trade Paxton if we added a but more. Or the Reds like previously stated. I think Cespedes is worth more in trade than he should be, especially considering he only has one year left. I'd support us trading him. I wonder if the Rangers would have some interest in him. They could buy Rios out for 1M and add power, which they lacked last year. Beltre, Fielder, Cespedes could be quite a 3,4,5 combo
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2014 12:37:52 GMT -5
I think Cespedes is the Red Sox primary trade bait. He could go for a starting pitcher that is established but has just a year left until free agency. He could be used to get a 3B or a left handed hitting OF to replace him. I don't know that the Sox want to platoon Nava and Craig in LF, but that is a possibility just as it's a possibility the Sox start the season with Holt at 3B.
Either way I would think that Cespedes' power would be attractive to other teams. I don't care for his middling OBP, and despite his strong throwing arm, I don't think he can be an effective RF with the Sox and he certainly needs help playing the wall in LF. I think he's a defensive liability at this point, but he can certainly help somebody's lineup. Maybe there's a GM out there that looks at RBIs and of course the real talent, the power, is something that is quite attractive.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 29, 2014 18:23:47 GMT -5
The Red Sox traded for Cespedes to bring more power to our lineup. I expect the Sox to trade Victorino in a salary dump. I know we are selling low, but we sadly might not be. Personally if the traded him it wouldn't bother me. I would love to swap Cepedes for a lefthanded hitting 3rd baseman with power.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Sept 29, 2014 22:37:15 GMT -5
I'm not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread, but I want to point out that because we cannot offer Cespedes a QO, and we cannot get a draft pick for him when he leaves, then that may effect the type of return we get for him. I think it also increases our desire to trade him if we are not confident in resigning him since the worst case scenario is that he leaves and we get nothing rather than him leaving and us getting a draft pick.
That said, any team we trade him to cannot get a draft pick from him either.
I'm also concerned about quantity vs. quality. I feel like we have a potential logjam in the outfield and in the rotation, so if there's a trade where we can trade numbers for quality then I think that we should make it. We also have other aspects of the team that we can improve (3B and bullpen) which can be part of the trades or signings as well.
I'm also torn as to whether or not it's better to solve these problems via trade, where we may give up young assets, or via free agency where we give up money and potentially draft picks.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 29, 2014 23:05:07 GMT -5
They can offer him a qualifying offer. A trade only affects the QO if he was in his final year, like Lester, and was traded mid season, like Lester.
Edit: unless there is something else that I missed that prevents them from doing so in which case disregard this.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 29, 2014 23:23:02 GMT -5
They can offer him a qualifying offer. A trade only affects the QO if he was in his final year, like Lester, and was traded mid season, like Lester. Edit: unless there is something else that I missed that prevents them from doing so in which case disregard this. Unfortunately, his deal does not allow it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2014 12:12:54 GMT -5
They can offer him a qualifying offer. A trade only affects the QO if he was in his final year, like Lester, and was traded mid season, like Lester. Edit: unless there is something else that I missed that prevents them from doing so in which case disregard this. Unfortunately, his deal does not allow it. Which is why I think Ben Cherington made sure that there was a draft pick as part of the deal that sent Lester and Gomes to Oakland for Cespedes. They get Oakland's competitive balance draft pick which is about 70th in the draft. That way Ben gets something if Cespedes walks away as a free agent, since he wouldn't get a draft pick otherwise because of Cespedes' deal, which is a restriction that wouldn't have occurred if the Sox had simply held onto Lester and had let him walk as a free agent - of course in that situation the Red Sox would have picked 30 something in the draft to get compensation for Lester.
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Post by jdb on Oct 21, 2014 9:48:25 GMT -5
Thinking out loud here the Tigers may be a fit to replace Hunter and Porcello is a FA after next year to. Kennedy and Kazmir could have similar vale, 3ish wins, but they probably want prospects. The Marlins could be a player with someone like Eovaldi since they have Fernandez coming back, the young lefty ready and a full year of Cosart. We would probably need to add to that package.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 21, 2014 12:37:47 GMT -5
Not big on Eovaldi. He doesn't miss bats with his premium velocity much like RDLR, granted his season was definite more successful.
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Post by rasimon on Oct 21, 2014 20:38:52 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 21, 2014 20:44:39 GMT -5
By "their problem," you mean their best position player? Trading one year of Cesepedes and any minor league pitcher of ours isn't going to net four years of Puig.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 22, 2014 9:11:01 GMT -5
Cespedes power bat is a commodity in short supply in the new MLB. I favored extending him due, not only to his production,but because of the issues with Papi's age and Napoli's maladies.
However, his signing with ROC leads me to believe he'll definitely test the market leaving the Sox high and dry after the 2015 season. So I favor moving him in the offseason for a SP. But his bat must be replaced somehow.
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