|
Post by mattpicard on Oct 22, 2014 9:37:28 GMT -5
Cespedes power bat is a commodity in short supply in the new MLB. I favored extending him due, not only to his production,but because of the issues with Papi's age and Napoli's maladies. However, his signing with ROC leads me to believe he'll definitely test the market leaving the Sox high and dry after the 2015 season. So I favor moving him in the offseason for a SP. But his bat must be replaced somehow.Keep in mind we're talking about a good player with power, but not really a tremendous offensive force. wRC+ vs. RHP:Nava, 2013: 146 Nava, 2014: 118 Cespedes, 2013: 83 Cespedes, 2014: 117 wRC+ vs. LHP:Cespedes, 2013: 142 Cespedes, 2014: 85 Craig, 2013: 117 Craig, 2014: 92 Victorino, 2013: 137 Victorino, 2014 (SSS): 109
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Oct 22, 2014 10:21:37 GMT -5
Cespedes has finished in the top 25 in power numbers for the last three years.
2012: .861 OPS (11th)
HRs 13th in 2013, 20th in 2014
RBIs: 9th in 2014 (100)
Nava seems relegated to a platoon role (w/Craig?) to fill the LF position should Cespedes be traded. Sox should be making a serious play for Heyward should Atlanta's efforts to extend him fail.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2014 12:00:53 GMT -5
Potential upgrade? Puig is one of the best players in MLB. The Dodgers might trade him for Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart and Pedroia.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Oct 22, 2014 12:26:26 GMT -5
Cespedes has finished in the top 25 in power numbers for the last three years. 2012: .861 OPS (11th) HRs 13th in 2013, 20th in 2014 RBIs: 9th in 2014 (100) Nava seems relegated to a platoon role (w/Craig?) to fill the LF position should Cespedes be traded. Sox should be making a serious play for Heyward should Atlanta's efforts to extend him fail. You're blatantly cherry picking by sharing only his best stat each year. Why not aggregate across the last three years and see how good he's really been? 27th in HR 19th in RBI 71st in OPS 74th in wRC+ The last two, I might add, are the ones that really matter.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Oct 22, 2014 12:34:27 GMT -5
On a team with a tenuous offensive production, Cespedes run producing skills need to replaced if he's traded. That's all I'm saying. While wRC accounts for venue, Cespedes value whether in Fenway or the vast expanses of Oakland cannot be discounted.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 22, 2014 13:00:08 GMT -5
On a team with a tenuous offensive production, Cespedes run producing skills need to replaced if he's traded. That's all I'm saying. While wRC accounts for venue, Cespedes value whether in Fenway or the vast expanses of Oakland cannot be discounted. You also have to consider who is replacing Cespedes in the outfield if he goes. A healthy Victorino and/or Craig would replace his value....this also opens up a clear hole for Betts next year. Unless of course Cespedes was just traded for another outfielder. Perhaps it makes sense to trade him for a pitcher close to free agency.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2014 13:22:34 GMT -5
On a team with a tenuous offensive production, Cespedes run producing skills need to replaced if he's traded. That's all I'm saying. While wRC accounts for venue, Cespedes value whether in Fenway or the vast expanses of Oakland cannot be discounted. I and many others don't think "run producing" is really a skill separate than just being a good hitter. And while Cespedes is a good hitter, he's not a great one, and would not be that hard to replace. A Nava + RHH platoon would get you pretty close.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Oct 22, 2014 22:07:12 GMT -5
By RHH platoon are you suggesting Allen Craig? Surely not Victorino, because, if recovered from surgery, he should have RF all to himself. I never said Cespedes is a "great hitter". But the team cannot rely on 39 yr. old Papi and the oft injured Napoli do drive in all the runs. We caught a break with the Nava/Gomes tandem in 2013. Nava with a RHH for a partner doesn't fit my comfort zone, particularly if it's Craig.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2014 22:34:05 GMT -5
Craig or Victorino or even Brentz/Hassan would fit in just fine there. Even if Victorino is available to play, it is very possible (perhaps even likely) that at age 33 and coming off major back surgery, he is just not as good as Castillo or Betts and fits best in a platoon in LF, at least to start the year.
I disagree with the idea that you need special guys to "drive in all the runs." It does not take special skills to be a 3/4/5 hitter. If Nava/RHH is only a little worse than Cespedes, then you aren't losing much by swapping out the latter for the former. A lineup of, say, Betts/Pedroia/Ortiz/Napoli/Headley/Bogaerts/LF/Castillo/Vazquez will score plenty of runs even if you swap out Cespedes for a Nava/RHH platoon.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Oct 23, 2014 10:03:02 GMT -5
I think it would be easy to find a RH side of a Nava platoon so I think Cespedes gets traded this offseason. You have the upside of Craig but Vic could be that guy since he can't handle a starters role and is probably best served backing up CF/RF and starting vs LHs in LF. Worst case is Brentz or Hassan. To me besides the Reds and that pitching depth the Mets seem to match up. Murphy could give us a LH bat at 3B and gives us an extra year to let that left side of the infield play out. Cechini's D is improving and as bad as WMBs has looked he still has Cespedes like upside at the plate and maybe can get healthy in AAA. My off the wall proposal would be Cespedes, Owens and Marrero for Wheeler and Murphy. The Mets need RH power and while it would hurt losing Wheeler they have good young RH pitching (Harvey, Degroom and the guy in AAA who's name I would butcher) they might bite on having a lefty like Owens. Wheelers name has come up before and it sounds like they could use a SS too. Maybe you take on Colons salary to sweeten the deal with the thought of him being the 5th and maybe a July trade target if a youngster steps forward. nypost.com/2014/08/28/this-star-wants-to-stay-a-met-and-feels-wilpons-will-spend-in-2015/
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 23, 2014 10:22:46 GMT -5
I do cringe at the thought of Victorino running into the Green Monster at full speed. Other than that, I agree.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2014 10:57:01 GMT -5
I think it would be easy to find a RH side of a Nava platoon so I think Cespedes gets traded this offseason. You have the upside of Craig but Vic could be that guy since he can't handle a starters role and is probably best served backing up CF/RF and starting vs LHs in LF. Worst case is Brentz or Hassan. To me besides the Reds and that pitching depth the Mets seem to match up. Murphy could give us a LH bat at 3B and gives us an extra year to let that left side of the infield play out. Cechini's D is improving and as bad as WMBs has looked he still has Cespedes like upside at the plate and maybe can get healthy in AAA. My off the wall proposal would be Cespedes, Owens and Marrero for Wheeler and Murphy. The Mets need RH power and while it would hurt losing Wheeler they have good young RH pitching (Harvey, Degroom and the guy in AAA who's name I would butcher) they might bite on having a lefty like Owens. Wheelers name has come up before and it sounds like they could use a SS too. Maybe you take on Colons salary to sweeten the deal with the thought of him being the 5th and maybe a July trade target if a youngster steps forward. nypost.com/2014/08/28/this-star-wants-to-stay-a-met-and-feels-wilpons-will-spend-in-2015/I would think the Mets would be more likely to trade John Niese? My guess is if Cespedes goes (and the Mets would be a possibility) the Sox could perhaps get Niese, and they could expand the deal to give the Mets a guy like Webster and Murphy could head back to the Sox? I would guess the OF alignment would be Betts in LF, Castillo in CF, and Victorino in RF, until Shane gets hurt and Betts shifts to right and either Craig or Nava gets first crack at LF depending upon how Craig looks in spring training as either Craig would be the full-time LF or Nava would platoon with Craig if Craig looks like he did in 2014.
|
|
|
Post by rafael on Oct 23, 2014 17:19:48 GMT -5
Niese seems to be a feasible trade target, and a very good one. I'd much rather have him than Murphy if it was one or the other, as I think that 3B is a position that would be filled internally with Betts/WMB/Holt/Cecchini better than SP with the young arms.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 24, 2014 12:31:41 GMT -5
By RHH platoon are you suggesting Allen Craig? Surely not Victorino, because, if recovered from surgery, he should have RF all to himself. I never said Cespedes is a "great hitter". But the team cannot rely on 39 yr. old Papi and the oft injured Napoli do drive in all the runs. We caught a break with the Nava/Gomes tandem in 2013. Nava with a RHH for a partner doesn't fit my comfort zone, particularly if it's Craig. Sibby I agree with you. Guys with power numbers and high slugging percentages are in the 3,4,5 slots for a reason. They are much more likely to drive in runs (and more runs) than top of the order/bottom of the order guys if for that reason alone. Do people think that reversing the order and putting the 'power guys' at the top will score us as many or more runs? Would Mookie or Pedey drive in 100+ runs at the 3, 4 positions? Papi will be gone or decline in production over the next year or two...if he plays that long...and Napoli will likely be 'pasturized' too. There is no one on the current roster except Cespedes that be counted on to hit home runs other than those you mentioned. If we are going to be a .250 hitting team with the clear pitching and defensive advances, we will have to have a relatively high team OBP and a few boppers. I can't imagine a Sox team with the top guy at 15 homeruns. That would not be a team I would be glued to the tube for.
|
|
|
Post by slam761 on Oct 24, 2014 17:09:48 GMT -5
I don't know exactly what the Padres plan to do with their new GM, but what about a 3-way trade where the Sox get 2 of Kennedy/Cashner/Ross by using some of the young pitchers/potentially blocked hitting prospects + whatever Cespedes can get from the third team?
I don't know if this is really realistic, but I've heard rumors recently about all 3 of those pitchers, and people like Rubby/Ranaudo/Workman/Barnes could probably step into their rotation and probably benefit from Petco park.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 29, 2014 22:36:00 GMT -5
While I hope we do trade cespedes in the offseason, I can not deny that Ortiz saw a lot more sweet pitches to hit when cespedes joined the team than he ever did with Napoli.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 30, 2014 6:24:58 GMT -5
While I hope we do trade cespedes in the offseason, I can not deny that Ortiz saw a lot more sweet pitches to hit when cespedes joined the team than he ever did with Napoli. I can.
|
|
|
Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 30, 2014 14:48:09 GMT -5
Could the Cardinals be a possible landing spot now?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2014 16:38:40 GMT -5
Could the Cardinals be a possible landing spot now? Nah, they still have Piscotty and Grichuk coming up. Especially if Cespedes doesn't want to play RF, which he apparently doesn't, there's no fit I'd say.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2014 17:17:13 GMT -5
While I hope we do trade cespedes in the offseason, I can not deny that Ortiz saw a lot more sweet pitches to hit when cespedes joined the team than he ever did with Napoli. Yes lets hear more about the vast difference made by replacing a guy who hit 17 home runs with a guy who hit 22.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Oct 30, 2014 21:42:28 GMT -5
While I hope we do trade cespedes in the offseason, I can not deny that Ortiz saw a lot more sweet pitches to hit when cespedes joined the team than he ever did with Napoli. Yes lets hear more about the vast difference made by replacing a guy who hit 17 home runs with a guy who hit 22. I think all you have to do is look at Ortiz stats pre and post cespedes.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2014 22:57:50 GMT -5
Yes lets hear more about the vast difference made by replacing a guy who hit 17 home runs with a guy who hit 22. I think all you have to do is look at Ortiz stats pre and post cespedes. Like the saying goes, correlation equals causation.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 31, 2014 1:00:45 GMT -5
Yes lets hear more about the vast difference made by replacing a guy who hit 17 home runs with a guy who hit 22. I think all you have to do is look at Ortiz stats pre and post cespedes. Larry, there are studies that show little to no effect from a batter supposedly protecting the guy in front of him. And by any objective measure you'd like to use, Napoli is more valuable than Cespedes. That's his hitting, before we even get to the defensive side of the equation. What he does have on Napoli is a few years. Even then, the Sox have other options including Nava if Napoli has to miss some games. Cespedes has value, but playing him at first base for a departed Napoli would be a negative, not a positive.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 31, 2014 10:39:22 GMT -5
Yes lets hear more about the vast difference made by replacing a guy who hit 17 home runs with a guy who hit 22. I think all you have to do is look at Ortiz stats pre and post cespedes. Before: .250/.345/.500, .241 BABIP After: .299/.386/.567, .300 BABIP Ortiz career BABIP: .301 Yup. Cespedes all the way. No other explanation.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 31, 2014 11:42:58 GMT -5
Also, 2013.
|
|