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Post by larrycook on Oct 31, 2014 22:09:54 GMT -5
I think all you have to do is look at Ortiz stats pre and post cespedes. Before: .250/.345/.500, .241 BABIP After: .299/.386/.567, .300 BABIP Ortiz career BABIP: .301 Yup. Cespedes all the way. No other explanation. I rest my case.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 1, 2014 21:17:21 GMT -5
You don't have one. As soon as Ortiz' batting average on the balls he puts into play returned to its 2013 norm, so did his numbers. Cespedes has as much to do with it as he (Add: or Napoli for that matter) did for Ortiz' performance last year.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 2, 2014 1:09:51 GMT -5
And Ortiz Babip just miraculously rose in it's own ?
Or maybe it got a little help because cespedes hit behind him, causing Ortiz to see better pitches to hit?
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Post by ethanbein on Nov 2, 2014 1:37:46 GMT -5
And Ortiz Babip just miraculously rose in it's own ? Yea, that is how regression to the mean works.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 2, 2014 11:00:01 GMT -5
And Ortiz Babip just miraculously rose in it's own ? Or maybe it got a little help because cespedes hit behind him, causing Ortiz to see better pitches to hit? The normal distribution does miraculous things all the time, Larry.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 2, 2014 11:00:09 GMT -5
And Ortiz Babip just miraculously rose in it's own ? Or maybe it got a little help because cespedes hit behind him, causing Ortiz to see better pitches to hit? Why would pitchers approach him differently when they were getting him out more often before? I get the idea that they don't want him on base with Cespedes coming up... so why did they start pitching to him in a way that put him on base much more often after Cespedes showed up? If there was a particular way pitchers could approach Ortiz that would cause him to have a .250 BABIP, why would they not just keep doing that regardless of who's batting behind him.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 2, 2014 21:09:52 GMT -5
Outside of Seattle and the mets, are there any other teams that cespedes makes sense for?
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 2, 2014 23:07:28 GMT -5
Outside of Seattle and the mets, are there any other teams that cespedes makes sense for? Any team that is expecting to compete in 2015 and has a gap in the corner outfield, or a general desperation for power, is going to be interested at the very least. The Reds make a lot of sense, as Ludwick is done and Hamilton and Bruce OPS'd in the mid-600's in 2014. The Orioles are a possibility, with Markakis and Cruz's futures with the team up in the air, although I'd be quite surprised if both of them moved on. The Tigers may want to let Hunter walk/retire, and J.D. Martinez in the other corner is bound to regress significantly. I'd also expect the Giants, Cardinals, and even the Royals to at least give us a call.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 3, 2014 0:12:00 GMT -5
Outside of Seattle and the mets, are there any other teams that cespedes makes sense for? Any team that is expecting to compete in 2015 and has a gap in the corner outfield, or a general desperation for power, is going to be interested at the very least. The Reds make a lot of sense, as Ludwick is done and Hamilton and Bruce OPS'd in the mid-600's in 2014. The Orioles are a possibility, with Markakis and Cruz's futures with the team up in the air, although I'd be quite surprised if both of them moved on. The Tigers may want to let Hunter walk/retire, and J.D. Martinez in the other corner is bound to regress significantly. I'd also expect the Giants, Cardinals, and even the Royals to at least give us a call. Sounds like we have an opportunity for a meeting of the minds with the reds in a cespedes trade. I doubt cherrington would do anything with Baltimore or Detroit.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 3, 2014 22:30:15 GMT -5
I doubt cherrington would do anything with Baltimore or Detroit. Why?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 3, 2014 23:34:47 GMT -5
Didn't they just deal with the Orioles when they traded Miller? Was that their quota?
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Post by jdb on Nov 5, 2014 10:04:32 GMT -5
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Post by charliezink16 on Nov 6, 2014 1:13:35 GMT -5
Middlebrooks/Cecchini, Cespedes, and Marrero for Wheeler, which side says no?
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2014 7:28:32 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2014 8:15:09 GMT -5
Would Murphy be ok as our 3B? He hasn't played there much. If so, definitely.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 6, 2014 9:10:39 GMT -5
Would Murphy be ok as our 3B? He hasn't played there much. If so, definitely. Yes, third base is his natural position. Due to David Wright's presence in New York, he got pushed to second, where he's pretty bad (they originally tried him in left field, where he struggled mightily). In the minors, 196 of his 240 games came at third.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2014 9:33:40 GMT -5
Would Murphy be ok as our 3B? He hasn't played there much. If so, definitely. Yes, third base is his natural position. Due to David Wright's presence in New York, he got pushed to second, where he's pretty bad (they originally tried him in left field, where he struggled mightily). In the minors, 196 of his 240 games came at third. Ah cool. Then it's a no-brainer for me. Even though they're kinda unexciting players, they're probably underrated, especially Murphy. And looking at Niese's #'s, he looks like a good Brian Johnson projection.
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Post by jdb on Nov 6, 2014 9:49:05 GMT -5
I've seen a few articles that suggest Murphy trimmed down a bit to add some needed agility to play 2B and if he put on some muscle you might see a small uptick in power.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2014 11:30:59 GMT -5
What am I missing about Murphy? Shouldn't he be more considered more valuable than that?
He had a 110 wRC+ last year as a 2B.
Sandoval had a 111. Cespedes had a 109. If Murphy is an average fielding 3B, isn't he pretty much on par with Sandoval without the weight issues?
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2014 13:49:06 GMT -5
He's been a bad defender at 2B and is heavily reliant on batting average, as he doesn't walk much or hit for power. He also gets a big boost from park adjustments (though guys like Sandoval and Headley and Cespedes did too).
But yeah, he's be a perfectly acceptable stop-gap 3B who would be an above-average regular.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2014 13:52:35 GMT -5
He's been a bad defender at 2B and is heavily reliant on batting average, as he doesn't walk much or hit for power. He also gets a big boost from park adjustments (though guys like Sandoval and Headley and Cespedes did too). But yeah, he's be a perfectly acceptable stop-gap 3B who would be an above-average regular. His K rate is low enough that his batting average looks sustainable. It's not like his BABIP is unsustainable, .322 last year and .321 for his career. In fact, his stats are extremely consistent from year to year. Hell, if Cecchini turns out as good, I'd be quite pleased.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 6, 2014 15:14:57 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm with you. I think in a vacuum Cespedes is the more valuable piece, so that makes me hesitant, but Niese and Murphy fit the Red Sox current needs more. I know the Mets are planning on contending on 2015, but I just don't think Alderson would give up on Wheeler for a one-year rental. I think that deal also makes more sense than holding onto Cespedes, so if it were the best offer out there I'd jump on it.
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 6, 2014 16:28:22 GMT -5
The Rangers have young infielders Andrus, Odor, and Profar, could we get Beltre for Cespedes and mid level prospect?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2014 17:59:46 GMT -5
The Rangers have young infielders Andrus, Odor, and Profar, could we get Beltre for Cespedes and mid level prospect? No. Thought of them trading Beltre has been shot down this offseason - they apparently want to explore extending him.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 6, 2014 22:24:41 GMT -5
Extending beltre would be the smart move for Texas.
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