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Red Sox, Chris Sale Agree to Extension (5 years/$145 mill)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 14:17:10 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? Well, Chris Sale has been a contributor of this year's collapse so if this year is anyway an indicator of future success then it's not really a big loss letting him walk. If they let him walk and were willing to give Sale 30 AAV there's no reason to think they'd get outbid for Cole. They also have Porcello coming off the books. Personally, I was more of a fan of locking up Patrick Corbin and having a year of Corbin, Price and Sale, but that's just me. I'd also bring back Porcello next year for about 5 million because his value is at an all-time low.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2019 14:25:41 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? Well, Chris Sale has been a contributor of this year's collapse so if this year is anyway an indicator of future success then it's not really a big loss letting him walk. If they let him walk and were willing to give Sale 30 AAV there's no reason to think they'd get outbid for Cole. They also have Porcello coming off the books. Personally, I was more of a fan of locking up Patrick Corbin and having a year of Corbin, Price and Sale, but that's just me. I'd also bring back Porcello next year for about 5 million because his value is at an all-time low. Kind of an interesting thought on Corbin, actually, though he's no younger than Sale, lacks Sale's history of success in the AL, and is not that much cheaper. Also that would have put them over the luxury tax threshold thingy this season, no?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2019 14:27:51 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? This is a relative phrase based on past performance. There is plenty of data on the career trajectories of starting pitchers in the post-30 year-old seasons. Elite before infrequently translates to elite over the next 3 to 5 years. Add to this Sale's durability issues, and the concern heightens. Mr. Brian Kenney dedicates a whole chapter of his book Ahead of the Curve on this very issue. That said, in addition to Cole, who is a year and a half younger than Sale and more sturdily built (and yes, I'm one of the squeaky wheels from last the winter that was the guy I wanted to go all in on, though never a guarantee with Free Agents - and though I've been wrong before), the 2019-20 Free Agent Class includes (with their current fWAR): Gerritt Cole 4.5 Cole Hammels 2.6 Jake Odorizzi 2.3 Madison Bumgarner 2.3 Michael Pineada 2.0 Stephen Strassburg (3.9) has an opt out if he thinks he can make more than $100M, but he comes with injury risk. Could be a good trade candidate if he doesn't opt out, however. Other than Cole and Strassburg, none of these guys are what Chris Sale was as recently as last year (6.2), but neither is he (2.9), and he wore down at the end of 2018. Also, some - Hammels in particular - likely accepts fewer years than what Sale took (so less risk). Finally, several Sox prospects are getting closer to MLB (Dalbec, Durran, Mata, Felton) and Casas seems to be prized by several GMs, so a deal may have been had for a very good to near elite pitcher in his final year or two (shiny object Robbie Ray 1.9, Bauer 2.8, Stroman 3.0, etc), if that's the way they wanted to go. Considering what Toronto go to for Stroman, he could be on this team right now if the Sox wanted him without cleaning out the farm. They know their own guys best, so they had to be confident with Sale's medicals. But he's just not controlling his pitches, esp the slider, which has less effect when he's throwing a FB 92ish instead of 97ish. It is what it is. Perhaps you can look at it like this: AAV-wise they gave Sale Porcello's deal plus $5M and a year. They will have some significant cash coming off the books this winter, and perhaps a bit more if they can reach an accommodation with Pedroia to stretch his money over, say, the next 5-6 years and offer him a place with the club in some capacity. Bottom line is they won't have as much cash as they would if they had not extended Sale, but still enough to go get some key pieces without jumping over the big luxury tax level.
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Post by juanpena on Aug 4, 2019 14:28:50 GMT -5
And speaking of Lester and Clemens: those guys had down years in their careers and bounced back. I suspect Sale will, too. I'm definitely not writing Sale off and hope he bounces back, but neither Clemens nor Lester was stick-figure skinny with a history of wearing down during the season.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 14:30:16 GMT -5
Well, Chris Sale has been a contributor of this year's collapse so if this year is anyway an indicator of future success then it's not really a big loss letting him walk. If they let him walk and were willing to give Sale 30 AAV there's no reason to think they'd get outbid for Cole. They also have Porcello coming off the books. Personally, I was more of a fan of locking up Patrick Corbin and having a year of Corbin, Price and Sale, but that's just me. I'd also bring back Porcello next year for about 5 million because his value is at an all-time low. Kind of an interesting thought on Corbin, actually, though he's no younger than Sale, lacks Sale's history of success in the AL, and is not that much cheaper. Also that would have put them over the luxury tax threshold thingy this season, no? That's all true. I kind of just wanted an absolute elite rotation for a year and thought Corbin would be nearly as good moving forward. Porcello makes 21 million this year whereas Corbin makes 12.5. They also signed Eovaldi for 17 million. There was a way to make it work.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2019 14:34:20 GMT -5
I don't see any huge red flags in the numbers. Like he has a 1.1 WHIP and over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. His FIP is much better than his ERA. It's just the home runs and extra hits. Like he can be good and then just has a very bad inning. He's not Cashner or Porcello that just get hit on every inning it seems. Not really worried like I was to start the year. Inaldo don't mind the contract since Porcello got 4 years 100 million like five years ago and Price got 7 years what 217 million four years ago. Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/04/2019&s_type=2Sale as recently as 2016 didn't average over 94 in a single month. So I'm not worried about velocity, not with that many strikeouts. His control is a little off, but he's not walking a ton of guys either. It's like he just loses his mechanics from time to time. Like maybe the contract could have been. Maybe he takes a one year huge prove it deal, is awesome and gets an even bigger deal. He wasn't going to sign some 5 year deal at 18 million per that is for sure. The season isn't over yet either. Smart teams don't look at wins or ERA and the rest of his numbers are rather good.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2019 14:38:29 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? I'd have the following strategies. 1-- not sing sale in 2091 until he showed me he was healthy after his end of season 2018 decline. If he showed me he was healthy then I'd pay more and Sale would be a target. 2-- Sign Cole. The Sox have shown they can compete vs Yanks and anyone else when it comes to salary. Sox can win a bidding war. Sale is a bit of an unknown right now, isn;t he? If you give more years for Cole-- maybe he gives you 1 or 2 years in 2020 and 2021 that Sale might be incapable of being nay more. 3-- Use Sale's $30m to get more pitchers. If Sale is no longer very good -- it's a "win" by not signing him and getting some cheaper pitchers / bullpen pieces. "this" Chris Sale is a poor option. Maybe / hopefully next year will be different. Unless he improves, Chris Sale is a next year $30m 4/5 right now - correct?
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 14:38:35 GMT -5
And speaking of Lester and Clemens: those guys had down years in their careers and bounced back. I suspect Sale will, too. I'm definitely not writing Sale off and hope he bounces back, but neither Clemens nor Lester was stick-figure skinny with a history of wearing down during the season. Though Clemens was getting called fat and started 24 and 23 games in two of his previous three seasons. Truthfully I don’t think thin is an issue. Guys like Randy Johnson lasted forever. Mechanics, conditioning, genes, luck. To me the question is what is wrong with Sale. Is he hurt? Doubt it. He is still hitting 96 (not as often, but still). His location is off, which strikes as more likely mechanical. My guess is he was hurt last year, let his mechanics slide to avoid whatever hurt, got messed up, and now he’s out of whack. His numbers are still pretty sick — home runs are killing him, which suggests he’s missing more than he has in the past. That is fixable. I’d rather pay Sale than have to find a new #1. Who would that be? How much would you give up? How many guys really have more upside?
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 14:46:41 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? This is a relative phrase based on past performance. There is plenty of data on the career trajectories of starting pitchers in the post-30 year-old seasons. Elite before infrequently translates to elite over the next 3 to 5 years. Add to this Sale's durability issues, and the concern heightens. Mr. Brian Kenney dedicates a whole chapter of his book Ahead of the Curve on this very issue. That said, in addition to Cole, who is a year and a half younger than Sale and more sturdily built (and yes, I'm one of the squeaky wheels from last the winter that was the guy I wanted to go all in on, though never a guarantee with Free Agents - and though I've been wrong before), the 2019-20 Free Agent Class includes (with their current fWAR): Gerritt Cole 4.5 Cole Hammels 2.6 Jake Odorizzi 2.3 Madison Bumgarner 2.3 Michael Pineada 2.0 Stephen Strassburg (3.9) has an opt out if he thinks he can make more than $100M, but he comes with injury risk. Could be a good trade candidate if he doesn't opt out, however. Other than Cole and Strassburg, none of these guys are what Chris Sale was as recently as last year (6.2), but neither is he (2.9), and he wore down at the end of 2018. Also, some - Hammels in particular - likely accepts fewer years than what Sale took (so less risk). Finally, several Sox prospects are getting closer to MLB (Dalbec, Durran, Mata, Felton) and Casas seems to be prized by several GMs, so a deal may have been had for a very good to near elite pitcher in his final year or two (shiny object Robbie Ray 1.9, Bauer 2.8, Stroman 3.0, etc), if that's the way they wanted to go. Considering what Toronto go to for Stroman, he could be on this team right now if the Sox wanted him without cleaning out the farm. They know their own guys best, so they had to be confident with Sale's medicals. But he's just not controlling his pitches, esp the slider, which has less effect when he's throwing a FB 92ish instead of 97ish. It is what it is. Perhaps you can look at it like this: AAV-wise they gave Sale Porcello's deal plus $5M and a year. They will have some significant cash coming off the books this winter, and perhaps a bit more if they can reach an accommodation with Pedroia to stretch his money over, say, the next 5-6 years and offer him a place with the club in some capacity. Bottom line is they won't have as much cash as they would if they had not extended Sale, but still enough to go get some key pieces without jumping over the big luxury tax level. Odorizzi? Pineda? I think I’d throw up if they signed one of those guys. Baumgarner, Strasburg, and Hamels? I don’t see them being significantly cheaper, and the risk is as high or higher. Trevor Bauer? I’d consider rooting for the Yankees. This list strikes me as evidence that the options are really limited. Cole is the only guy I’d feel good about as a #1, and he’ll cost more than Sale did.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2019 14:46:52 GMT -5
One thing I'd ask is: if they hadn't signed Sale, where were they going to get starting pitching from? They could go all in on Gerrit Cole, but there's no guarantee they'd win a bidding war against the Yankees, et al. And to win that bidding war is probably going to require a 7-year deal at least, right? And Cole is only 1.5 years younger than Sale. And beyond that... find me a free agent starter who has the potential to be as elite as Sale, and at equal or lesser risk. They just aren't out there. The other option would be to trade prospects for a cost-controlled young starter. But we don't have the prospects to do that - we already used them to acquire Chris Sale! So that's the concrete question I'd ask: if you think it would have been better not to sign Sale, what's your strategy for building the Sox' starting rotation? I'd have the following strategies. 1-- not sing sale in 2091 until he showed me he was healthy after his end of season 2018 decline. If he showed me he was healthy then I'd pay more and Sale would be a target. 2-- Sign Cole. The Sox have shown they can compete vs Yanks and anyone else when it comes to salary. Sox can win a bidding war. Sale is a bit of an unknown right now, isn;t he? If you give more years for Cole-- maybe he gives you 1 or 2 years in 2020 and 2021 that Sale might be incapable of being nay more. 3-- Use Sale's $30m to get more pitchers. If Sale is no longer very good -- it's a "win" by not signing him and getting some cheaper pitchers / bullpen pieces. "this" Chris Sale is a poor option. Maybe / hopefully next year will be different. Unless he improves, Chris Sale is a next year $30m 4/5 right now - correct? I think Speier had his AAV at $25.5M due to deferred $$$.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 14:55:11 GMT -5
Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/04/2019&s_type=2Sale as recently as 2016 didn't average over 94 in a single month. So I'm not worried about velocity, not with that many strikeouts. His control is a little off, but he's not walking a ton of guys either. It's like he just loses his mechanics from time to time. Like maybe the contract could have been. Maybe he takes a one year huge prove it deal, is awesome and gets an even bigger deal. He wasn't going to sign some 5 year deal at 18 million per that is for sure. The season isn't over yet either. Smart teams don't look at wins or ERA and the rest of his numbers are rather good. But he's not built like Jon Lester. He has a tiny, frail body who the last two seasons had issues with the end of the season and now this year is just having a bad year. They tried to baby him in the beginning of the year. I don't think he'd take 18 AAV, but may 22. I also doubt he takes a "prove it" contract either because there's just way too much risk in that.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2019 14:59:59 GMT -5
This is a relative phrase based on past performance. There is plenty of data on the career trajectories of starting pitchers in the post-30 year-old seasons. Elite before infrequently translates to elite over the next 3 to 5 years. Add to this Sale's durability issues, and the concern heightens. Mr. Brian Kenney dedicates a whole chapter of his book Ahead of the Curve on this very issue. That said, in addition to Cole, who is a year and a half younger than Sale and more sturdily built (and yes, I'm one of the squeaky wheels from last the winter that was the guy I wanted to go all in on, though never a guarantee with Free Agents - and though I've been wrong before), the 2019-20 Free Agent Class includes (with their current fWAR): Gerritt Cole 4.5 Cole Hammels 2.6 Jake Odorizzi 2.3 Madison Bumgarner 2.3 Michael Pineada 2.0 Stephen Strassburg (3.9) has an opt out if he thinks he can make more than $100M, but he comes with injury risk. Could be a good trade candidate if he doesn't opt out, however. Other than Cole and Strassburg, none of these guys are what Chris Sale was as recently as last year (6.2), but neither is he (2.9), and he wore down at the end of 2018. Also, some - Hammels in particular - likely accepts fewer years than what Sale took (so less risk). Finally, several Sox prospects are getting closer to MLB (Dalbec, Durran, Mata, Felton) and Casas seems to be prized by several GMs, so a deal may have been had for a very good to near elite pitcher in his final year or two (shiny object Robbie Ray 1.9, Bauer 2.8, Stroman 3.0, etc), if that's the way they wanted to go. Considering what Toronto go to for Stroman, he could be on this team right now if the Sox wanted him without cleaning out the farm. They know their own guys best, so they had to be confident with Sale's medicals. But he's just not controlling his pitches, esp the slider, which has less effect when he's throwing a FB 92ish instead of 97ish. It is what it is. Perhaps you can look at it like this: AAV-wise they gave Sale Porcello's deal plus $5M and a year. They will have some significant cash coming off the books this winter, and perhaps a bit more if they can reach an accommodation with Pedroia to stretch his money over, say, the next 5-6 years and offer him a place with the club in some capacity. Bottom line is they won't have as much cash as they would if they had not extended Sale, but still enough to go get some key pieces without jumping over the big luxury tax level. Odorizzi? Pineda? I think I’d throw up if they signed one of those guys. Baumgarner, Strasburg, and Hamels? I don’t see them being significantly cheaper, and the risk is as high or higher. Trevor Bauer? I’d consider rooting for the Yankees. This list strikes me as evidence that the options are really limited. Cole is the only guy I’d feel good about as a #1, and he’ll cost more than Sale did. Yeah, I'd basically co-sign this. It's certainly a risk to sign Sale. But it's a risk to sign anybody, including Cole, and he's the only on the list that is close to Sale's level. But of course there's no guarantee we could've signed Cole, whereas it's now guaranteed we will keep Sale. I think you've gotta go with the bird in the hand if you have the opportunity - especially since there's only one bird in the bush anyway.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2019 15:03:17 GMT -5
www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/04/2019&s_type=2Sale as recently as 2016 didn't average over 94 in a single month. So I'm not worried about velocity, not with that many strikeouts. His control is a little off, but he's not walking a ton of guys either. It's like he just loses his mechanics from time to time. Like maybe the contract could have been. Maybe he takes a one year huge prove it deal, is awesome and gets an even bigger deal. He wasn't going to sign some 5 year deal at 18 million per that is for sure. The season isn't over yet either. Smart teams don't look at wins or ERA and the rest of his numbers are rather good. But he's not built like Jon Lester. He has a tiny, frail body who the last two seasons had issues with the end of the season and now this year is just having a bad year. They tried to baby him in the beginning of the year. I don't think he'd take 18 AAV, but may 22. I also doubt he takes a "prove it" contract either because there's just way too much risk in that. People keep saying his being a thin guy (which is what I think you meant by, um, "tiny and frail," lol) means he's more likely to break down, but is there any actual evidence for this? Are thin pitchers more likely to get injured? Or does a stocky body just look more durable?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2019 15:06:24 GMT -5
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Post by juanpena on Aug 4, 2019 15:19:45 GMT -5
I'm definitely not writing Sale off and hope he bounces back, but neither Clemens nor Lester was stick-figure skinny with a history of wearing down during the season. Though Clemens was getting called fat and started 24 and 23 games in two of his previous three seasons. Truthfully I don’t think thin is an issue. Guys like Randy Johnson lasted forever. Mechanics, conditioning, genes, luck. To me the question is what is wrong with Sale. Is he hurt? Doubt it. He is still hitting 96 (not as often, but still). His location is off, which strikes as more likely mechanical. My guess is he was hurt last year, let his mechanics slide to avoid whatever hurt, got messed up, and now he’s out of whack. His numbers are still pretty sick — home runs are killing him, which suggests he’s missing more than he has in the past. That is fixable. I’d rather pay Sale than have to find a new #1. Who would that be? How much would you give up? How many guys really have more upside? To be fair to Clemens, 24 starts was one behind the league-leaders in 1994, when the season was shut down in early August by a strike. Sale's numbers are sick in strikeouts, but his WHIP is the worst of his career. The big different is in the splits: Bases empty: .211/290/375/665 Runners on: 260/303/ 500/803 Is there some mechanical issue he has pitching out of the stretch? If so, it speaks bad of Levangie, Sale and Cora that they haven't figured out what it is. And if Sandy Leon is no help in that regard, why does Sale have to have him?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 15:44:24 GMT -5
But he's not built like Jon Lester. He has a tiny, frail body who the last two seasons had issues with the end of the season and now this year is just having a bad year. They tried to baby him in the beginning of the year. I don't think he'd take 18 AAV, but may 22. I also doubt he takes a "prove it" contract either because there's just way too much risk in that. People keep saying his being a thin guy (which is what I think you meant by, um, "tiny and frail," lol) means he's more likely to break down, but is there any actual evidence for this? Are thin pitchers more likely to get injured? Or does a stocky body just look more durable? I found 2 articles, both not relevant to the topic. One was that heavier pitchers throw harder and the other was a pitcher's height does not determine durability. sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matterIf someone smarter than me can find any statistical evidence of bulkier pitchers vs wirey pitchers that would be great. On both ends of the spectrum I think of Tim Lincecum and Pedro Martinez as one who burned out and one who lasted a while (though Martinez's stuff was diminished, but he did very well for the Mets).
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Post by manfred on Aug 4, 2019 15:48:11 GMT -5
Though Clemens was getting called fat and started 24 and 23 games in two of his previous three seasons. Truthfully I don’t think thin is an issue. Guys like Randy Johnson lasted forever. Mechanics, conditioning, genes, luck. To me the question is what is wrong with Sale. Is he hurt? Doubt it. He is still hitting 96 (not as often, but still). His location is off, which strikes as more likely mechanical. My guess is he was hurt last year, let his mechanics slide to avoid whatever hurt, got messed up, and now he’s out of whack. His numbers are still pretty sick — home runs are killing him, which suggests he’s missing more than he has in the past. That is fixable. I’d rather pay Sale than have to find a new #1. Who would that be? How much would you give up? How many guys really have more upside? To be fair to Clemens, 24 starts was one behind the league-leaders in 1994, when the season was shut down in early August by a strike. Sale's numbers are sick in strikeouts, but his WHIP is the worst of his career. The big different is in the splits: Bases empty: .211/290/375/665 Runners on: 260/303/ 500/803 Is there some mechanical issue he has pitching out of the stretch? If so, it speaks bad of Levangie, Sale and Cora that they haven't figured out what it is. And if Sandy Leon is no help in that regard, why does Sale have to have him? Fair on Clemens. Missed it being a strike season. Am in complete agreement on Leon. Seems pointless. As for the splits, you may be right that it speaks poorly for the staff, but they do perhaps suggest a mechanical issue. Or tipping? I guess all I’m saying is we can all agree he’s had a bad season, but the question is: is it certainly a sign of decline? To me, even those splits suggest a guy still able to dominate.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 18:13:20 GMT -5
That is... not helping me feel any better about this extension. Ha, yeah I know that isn't a comfort. My point was more that our friend damaineah may be jumping the gun again, similar to the "cut JBJ" thread. Maybe it's semantics, but "the Red Sox shouldn't have signed him" is a different argument than "Sale isn't earning it". Just thinking that maybe if we're going to focus on Sale we could let him throw at least one pitch under his new contract before we start judging rather or not he's earning said contract? Quick hijack, but outside of an outstanding June and a solid May, Damaineah wasn't that far off if he was referring to this season. His WAR is only worth 1.0 on the year and he's a -3 DRS. I mean, when he's hot, he's one of the best hitters in the game, but otherwise he's Sandy Leon. It's weird. They just didn't have any internal replacement options and had bigger needs since their offense is fine. I would move on from him in the off-season. Perhaps if we want to carry this conversation on we should extract it to the JBJ thread. As far as Sale, he could very well be worth every penny of his extension, but no matter what, the Red Sox likely lost value on the deal by not waiting till the end of the year. The more he struggles the less likely it is that he makes 30 million AAV in the off-season as an over 30 pitcher.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 4, 2019 18:52:29 GMT -5
Ha, yeah I know that isn't a comfort. My point was more that our friend damaineah may be jumping the gun again, similar to the "cut JBJ" thread. Maybe it's semantics, but "the Red Sox shouldn't have signed him" is a different argument than "Sale isn't earning it". Just thinking that maybe if we're going to focus on Sale we could let him throw at least one pitch under his new contract before we start judging rather or not he's earning said contract? Quick hijack, but outside of an outstanding June and a solid May, Damaineah wasn't that far off if he was referring to this season. His WAR is only worth 1.0 on the year and he's a -3 DRS. I mean, when he's hot, he's one of the best hitters in the game, but otherwise he's Sandy Leon. It's weird. They just didn't have any internal replacement options and had bigger needs since their offense is fine. I would move on from him in the off-season. Perhaps if we want to carry this conversation on we should extract it to the JBJ thread. As far as Sale, he could very well be worth every penny of his extension, but no matter what, the Red Sox likely lost value on the deal by not waiting till the end of the year. The more he struggles the less likely it is that he makes 30 million AAV in the off-season as an over 30 pitcher. If they wait until the end of the year they're competing with 29 other teams, and are you sure no one would offer him more? I bet some team that sees a window in the next few years would give him more years, at least, and take on the downside risk on the back end of the contract. Hell, the Phillies gave Bryce Harper 13/330. They'll be paying him a bajillion a year through his age-39 season.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 19:01:03 GMT -5
Quick hijack, but outside of an outstanding June and a solid May, Damaineah wasn't that far off if he was referring to this season. His WAR is only worth 1.0 on the year and he's a -3 DRS. I mean, when he's hot, he's one of the best hitters in the game, but otherwise he's Sandy Leon. It's weird. They just didn't have any internal replacement options and had bigger needs since their offense is fine. I would move on from him in the off-season. Perhaps if we want to carry this conversation on we should extract it to the JBJ thread. As far as Sale, he could very well be worth every penny of his extension, but no matter what, the Red Sox likely lost value on the deal by not waiting till the end of the year. The more he struggles the less likely it is that he makes 30 million AAV in the off-season as an over 30 pitcher. If they wait until the end of the year they're competing with 29 other teams, and are you sure no one would offer him more? I bet some team that sees a window in the next few years would give him more years, at least, and take on the downside risk on the back end of the contract. Hell, the Phillies gave Bryce Harper 13/330. They'll be paying him a bajillion a year through his age-39 season. The market seems stagnant on starting pitchers. Corbin is making 12.5 then 24, 23, 24 then 35. Price didn't opt out after a good year making 32 over 4. Keuchel got a 1/13 in June. I really don't think the AAV would be higher for going into the season, but maybe the years would be longer. But because of the year he's having I doubt anyone gives him 30 per. Maybe if it's incentive laden.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Aug 4, 2019 20:50:57 GMT -5
I still do not like the extension.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2019 21:19:15 GMT -5
It amazes me the conversations at cross purposes. Half the board says the Sox are too cheap; others say signing a guy who’d averaged 6 WAR the previous 3 seasons was an overspend. Tough crowd. There's only one person who thinks Henry is cheap without a larger conversation that all baseball owners are cheap. Chris Sale broke down at the end of the year and the year before faded late in the season. He will be 31 when his extension starts. If the market was there for starting pitching, David Price would have opted out. The AAV is about what I would have expected him to get in free agency so they likely saved themselves on the years if he was pitching like vintage Chris Sale. The risk/reward to me would have been to wait. I'm with you on Sale but not about the owner. There's been a lot more criticism on the owner being cheap than just 1 person. While come may have not used the word "cheap" -- there has been criticism that he should spend more. If he should-- then that would classify as "cheap."
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2019 21:24:38 GMT -5
Lower velocity and spotty command at times and the fact they came into the season with a babying plan doesn't make me feel great about long term prognosis. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but if everything is timing, he'd come at a much better discount if they waited the year. Hopefully he does live up to the contract, but it could have been much cheaper. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/04/2019&s_type=2Sale as recently as 2016 didn't average over 94 in a single month. So I'm not worried about velocity, not with that many strikeouts. His control is a little off, but he's not walking a ton of guys either. It's like he just loses his mechanics from time to time. Like maybe the contract could have been. Maybe he takes a one year huge prove it deal, is awesome and gets an even bigger deal. He wasn't going to sign some 5 year deal at 18 million per that is for sure. The season isn't over yet either. Smart teams don't look at wins or ERA and the rest of his numbers are rather good. Fangraphs shows his velocity is down. As for others who keep looking to compare Porcello vs Sale to justify Sale-- -- imo that's no good. We shouldn't have wanted either for now $30m or $25.5m -- if we had waited. www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 4, 2019 21:58:13 GMT -5
There's only one person who thinks Henry is cheap without a larger conversation that all baseball owners are cheap. Chris Sale broke down at the end of the year and the year before faded late in the season. He will be 31 when his extension starts. If the market was there for starting pitching, David Price would have opted out. The AAV is about what I would have expected him to get in free agency so they likely saved themselves on the years if he was pitching like vintage Chris Sale. The risk/reward to me would have been to wait. I'm with you on Sale but not about the owner. There's been a lot more criticism on the owner being cheap than just 1 person. While come may have not used the word "cheap" -- there has been criticism that he should spend more. If he should-- then that would classify as "cheap." Until he's second in baseball on money spent you can't call him cheap. If Henry is cheap, what is literally every other owner? They wanted to reset the tax penalties, it's hard to fault them for that when they should be dominating based on dollars spent. It's the players who have let the fanbase down.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2019 23:00:27 GMT -5
I'm with you on Sale but not about the owner. There's been a lot more criticism on the owner being cheap than just 1 person. While come may have not used the word "cheap" -- there has been criticism that he should spend more. If he should-- then that would classify as "cheap." Until he's second in baseball on money spent you can't call him cheap. If Henry is cheap, what is literally every other owner? They wanted to reset the tax penalties, it's hard to fault them for that when they should be dominating based on dollars spent. It's the players who have let the fanbase down. I am not arguing with you on this. Just pointing out it was more than just 1 person.
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