|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2019 17:20:25 GMT -5
Max Scherzer, Matt Greinke, and Justin Verlander say hi.
There is absolutely nothing that states definitively that Sale has hit a massive physical decline. As umass stated earlier, he's throwing the same velocity now that he was in 2016. He also has repeatedly shown that he has extra velocity to go to when he needs it (or when he's pissed off). He is definitely not throwing the ball at 110% effort all the time anymore like he did when he wore down. But is that decline or is that on purpose?
Statcast shows he's been a bit unlucky this season. His xwOBA is .292, which is lower than the .296 he had in 2016. His wOBA allowed is .308. His k-rates and walk rates are still elite as hell and in the top 3-4 of all of MLB. Obviously he's having an off-year, but I see nothing that tells me he's just a mediocre pitcher now.
His slider and his HR/FB rate are being really hurt by the baseball as well. Even Pedro was talking about it recently and doesn't think he would have been the same pitcher with today's ball.
There's really nothing that any pitcher can do about giving up cheap opposite field home runs now. Even 9th hitters with 10 career home runs can hit pop fly opposite field home runs on great pitches. Thanks Manfred.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 6, 2019 17:48:01 GMT -5
Max Scherzer, Matt Greinke, and Justin Verlander say hi. There is absolutely nothing that states definitively that Sale has hit a massive physical decline. As umass stated earlier, he's throwing the same velocity now that he was in 2016. He also has repeatedly shown that he has extra velocity to go to when he needs it (or when he's pissed off). He is definitely not throwing the ball at 110% effort all the time anymore like he did when he wore down. But is that decline or is that on purpose? Statcast shows he's been a bit unlucky this season. His xwOBA is .292, which is lower than the .296 he had in 2016. His wOBA allowed is .308. His k-rates and walk rates are still elite as hell and in the top 3-4 of all of MLB. Obviously he's having an off-year, but I see nothing that tells me he's just a mediocre pitcher now. His slider and his HR/FB rate are being really hurt by the baseball as well. Even Pedro was talking about it recently and doesn't think he would have been the same pitcher with today's ball. There's really nothing that any pitcher can do about giving up cheap opposite field home runs now. Even 9th hitters with 10 career home runs can hit pop fly opposite field home runs on great pitches. Thanks Manfred. Max Scherzer contract per year: year 1 - $10,000,000 2 - $15,000,000 3 - $15,000,000 4 - $15,000,000 5 - $30,262,705 6 - $28,777,759 7 - $27,360,623 Matt Greinke: Good comp. Signed his deal at age 32 and is making 31 per. His contract is the exact risk I would think Chris Sale on a good year would have commanded 6/31. A saving of a year and 1 million per. That's if he can beat the market suppression. Justin Verlander is making $28 million this year, but will get 2 years thereafter of $33 per for the first time in his career. Being able to dial it up isn't the same as average fastball velocity. www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=His average velocity is down from last year and slightly down from 2 years ago. This working in conjunction with the fact he should be more rested than in years prior because they were having him throw with incredibly less velocity earlier in the year to preserve him for the later months. He should be throwing harder by now. I'm not even arguing that he's mediocre or sucks. I'm arguing that they didn't save themselves much by signing him early and now they could have saved themselves on the AAV should they have waited. My scenario they still have the player, albeit at lower dollars. They get all the credit in the world for locking up Xander early because it clearly saved them future dollars. I think it's fair to question the timeliness of the Sale deal which looks like has cost them money. If Sale signed for $25 then I would call that a bargain for the Red Sox. 30 is basically free agent dollars. At that point, I just wait on a pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2019 19:38:03 GMT -5
Sale's AAV is $25.6M for luxury tax purposes. I don't know how anyone possibly thinks he didn't sign a well below market deal even with this down season. Especially with it being only for 5 years.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 6, 2019 20:24:58 GMT -5
Sale's AAV is $25.6M for luxury tax purposes. I don't know how anyone possibly thinks he didn't sign a well below market deal even with this down season. Especially with it being only for 5 years. How do you get that number? I'm looking at spotrac and it only shows he's being paid 30 mil each of the next 3 seasons.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2019 20:32:21 GMT -5
Sale's AAV is $25.6M for luxury tax purposes. I don't know how anyone possibly thinks he didn't sign a well below market deal even with this down season. Especially with it being only for 5 years. How do you get that number? I'm looking at spotrac and it only shows he's being paid 30 mil each of the next 3 seasons. It's how MLB calculated it because something like $40 million is being paid after 2035. I didn't get it either, but read the thread for more info. For luxury tax purposes, (which is the only thing that matters to the Red Sox) he will be paid $128 million for 5 years. That's far less than Lester got and Sale was 10 times the pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 6, 2019 21:13:57 GMT -5
How do you get that number? I'm looking at spotrac and it only shows he's being paid 30 mil each of the next 3 seasons. It's how MLB calculated it because something like $40 million is being paid after 2035. I didn't get it either, but read the thread for more info. For luxury tax purposes, (which is the only thing that matters to the Red Sox) he will be paid $128 million for 5 years. That's far less than Lester got and Sale was 10 times the pitcher. Alright, so that's a lot better. I don't really care about the real dollars so that's more in line with what I think a deal for Sale (before this season) would be a good extension. I'd still have rather waited and maybe need to go 1 year at 5 mil extra, but that price point makes more sense for an early extension.
|
|