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Post by tjb21 on Jul 25, 2023 11:25:14 GMT -5
Obviously keeping Paxton is the best shot at making a postseason run this year, but I’m intrigued by him and his value. Reportedly, rental starters are commanding a high price this deadline. Would that be greater than a comp pick? Would he just accept the QO at the end of the year? I’d feel a little uneasy having nearly 50 million in cash tied up in Sale and Paxton heading into 2024 but the free agent market is slim pickings anyway. Don’t feel like there’s a clear and obvious way to go with him. In terms of pitching quality to monetary cost (I think he's owed less than $2 million the rest of the year)... Well I personally think he would command the highest value return for a team in terms of prospects out of any rental pitchers being made available. I mean that purely based on the dollars he is owed. For instance, getting a Lucas Giolito is going to cost a team more to trade for in terms of prospects, but he is still owed around $5 million I believe. Age and injury history would of course impact what the Red Sox could get for Paxton, but teams are absolutely desperate for starting pitching, and Paxton has honestly pitched and looked better than Giolito/Stroman/etc. over the last 2 months. I think a contending team might go bananas and offer a top-50 prospect, and maybe a fringe top-100 prospect for him. That being said, this is purely hypothetical, and I would be pretty furious if the Red Sox traded him based on where the team stands heading into the deadline. I'd be wary of an extension though, I certainly agree on that. If the Red Sox stay under the luxury tax at this deadline and have a tax reset this offseason, as they are planning for, there is no reason they shouldn't be able to go out and sign two top tier starting pitchers in free agency. And get a comp pick after extending a qualifying offer to Paxton IMO: Boston would be foolish to turn this hypothetical offer down.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 25, 2023 11:12:56 GMT -5
5-7 sounds right? I find myself pushing Zanetello higher each time I look at things, fwiw. Haven't gotten much further down though yet. I’d have him above Romero personally. Yes it was a year later, but there was a bonus gap of $700k and his tools give him a way higher ceiling. Zanetello vs Bonaci is actually a tougher call for me Just curious, what makes you prefer Bonaci to Romero?
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 24, 2023 14:29:16 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play. Same. Good player on a 1 yr deal or a 2nd round comp pick.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 22, 2023 10:58:19 GMT -5
I think Law was closer. Kiermaier but with more speed. Would be a very nice outcome for Ceddanne.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 22, 2023 10:17:40 GMT -5
Fernandez is pretty safe unless he has a bad finish to the season. You need a bunch of relievers on the 40 for the major league team to function. Kenley, Martin, Schreiber, Bernandino, Winck, Murphy and Walter are 7. Need more than that, and we don't really have anyone else you would care about. Fernandez has an outside shot to get called up this year.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 22, 2023 8:27:06 GMT -5
Do you know Reimer is at slot? If he is at the rumored $200k also written in here with everything else above, seems like they could maybe get Orloski or Schlaegel also? And is the Anderson $1.5M firm? What about Taylor at $300k? Asking because if they don't sign Anderson (who is consuming more than pick value and overage on his pick at $1.5M) and use his money elsewhere (Call, Orloski, Schlaegel), they still get a comp pick after Rd3 next year. Anderson is signing.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 21, 2023 14:29:48 GMT -5
Drohan would go 1:1 if left unprotected.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 20, 2023 14:12:58 GMT -5
I applaud the Freudian slip. You realize Boston has scored 56 more runs than Toronto this year? Casas and Vlad essentially have the same wRC+ since Casas debued 9/1/22 (hat tip to RSS). Vlad has not been what you think he's been, for some time. So again...would you say that you would rather have the Red Sox lineup over the course of the season than the Jays? The Jays have woefully underachieved but you can't tell me that the Sox lineup is truly better when the only masher in that lineup is Devers. Look at the track records of the players in Torontos lineup. You have Springer Bichette Vlad and Chapman. They've all pretty much underachieved to a degree. But the lineup itself is better. Also if you're saying you'd rather have Casas over Vlad then I don't know...I'd take a combo of Bichette and Vlad over any two guys in the Sox lineup. Yoshida has a higher OBP, wOBA, Slugging and wRC+ than Bichette. Turner has a higher average, OBP, Slugging, wOBA and wRC+ than Vlad.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 20, 2023 13:51:17 GMT -5
I'm not really familiar with the Astros' or Jays' rosters. Would, say, Giolito move the needle enough to claim the Sox were comparable/better? Just curious what you think. I ask because if Giolito (or someone comparable) gets them over the top then maybe it's worth it. If he doesn't then why bother acquiring anybody for this year's team? I personally don't think so. The one thing about the Jays is that they were really banking on Manoah taking that next step and the only step he took was to the Hostess factory. So there's that. The one thing that Boston does have going for them is that Story is coming back in some capacity, Sale will come back for a spell, and then they'll probably just let it ride. Toronto still has a much better lineup anchored by Vlad and Bichette. Boston has a better pen and Toronto has a better rotation anchored by Gausman who is coming back from injury. I applaud the Freudian slip. You realize Boston has scored 56 more runs than Toronto this year? Casas and Vlad essentially have the same wRC+ since Casas debued 9/1/22 (hat tip to RSS). Vlad has not been what you think he's been, for some time.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 18, 2023 9:31:10 GMT -5
He could be the most exciting player in all of baseball. In the meantime, the MFYs are all alone in last place. Good time to read the NY newspapers. I appreciate the enthusiasm, and you're certainly entitield to your own opinion on this, but nah. He's supremely exciting though!
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 17, 2023 22:16:13 GMT -5
The Pivetta experience has been so fun. Good for him!
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 17, 2023 11:29:39 GMT -5
Since 4/22, Masa is hitting .345/.397/.550 with 10 HR over 288 plate appearances, a 157 wRC+, which is good for 9th in baseball in that timeframe, just behind Juan Soto's 159 wRC+. I wanted to circle back to his ZiPS projections when he first signed with the team: For the last 3 months he has been hitting somewhere around his 80th percentile, so for as good as he has been it was all well within possibility that he could put up these numbers. And I think there is also a possibility that there is more in the tank if he can hit for more power. If he can put up these averages and K/BB numbers and also hit around 30 HR he is probably a top 5 hitter in the game.
These numbers are delicious.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 17, 2023 8:05:38 GMT -5
Kutt man needs to step up tomorrow. I believe in him Gonna play some stinkers over 162 games, this definitely qualified They typically lose when I attend, so if they lose again tomorrow, blame me. Pleasurable game to attend.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 16, 2023 7:25:16 GMT -5
What are the odds Anthony beats Mayer to the show? Low.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 15, 2023 19:54:12 GMT -5
Kutt man needs to step up tomorrow. I believe in him Gonna play some stinkers over 162 games, this definitely qualified They typically lose when I attend, so if they lose again tomorrow, blame me.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 14, 2023 19:01:12 GMT -5
Reyes playing outfield is interesting. Not that he hasn’t done it before.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 14, 2023 13:26:20 GMT -5
There are always guys who sign for way less than we think and guys who sign for more. Don't forget that saving 100k or two on Teel, for example, may not seem like much in the context of what his bonus will be but could go a long way elsewhere. Correct me if I’m wrong on this, but you only get the slot value (and therefore the 5% overage) if you actually sign the guy, right? So signing Teel for 200k under slot would mean they have ~450k extra to give out? That's my understanding too.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 14, 2023 13:22:38 GMT -5
Maybe you went over this already, but I'm not really sure when they were supposed to trade major leaguers for prospects in his tenure. My main point was that whether the amateurs a team brings in works out or not I am largely willing to attribute to the arbitrary whims of the Baseball Gods. I don't think there we have disagreement about the individual moves you're talking about.
This can happen at any time; if the goal is sustainable success and not booming and busting you can and should pursue value where it exists. Tampa is fantastic at this; see guys like Archer and Snell. Edit: And I realize the return for Snell so far hasn't moved the needle much in Tampa. You won't win every trade. The point is that they're willing to move stars for prospects. Yes, I'm sure they also do it because they're cheap and don't want to pay them, but it's also a big factor in how they've been good for so long despite not spending.
Tampa seems to have mastered the compound interest of trading players who are about to become expensive, for prospects. Finishing 12 games back from a WC spot in 2019 and going so far over the LT line that their 1st rounder had be moved back 10 spots, is a thing that happened. Boston also also didn't receive any compensation for Kumbrel walking after 2019, since he didn't sign with another team before the draft. I do wonder how another offseason of missing the playoffs will affect ownership's confidence in Chaim.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 13, 2023 14:37:46 GMT -5
Re Second Base: Arroyo has a 1.026 OPS for this July. No, he can't sustain that, but his bat is superior to Chang's and defense is probably a wash. Of course, Arroyo has problems staying healthy, but the hamate injury Chang sustained is not easy to come back from in the same year and many guys go back to the IL after coming back from it in the same year. By both stats and eyeballs, defense is definitely not a wash between Arroyo and Chang. SS: Story 2B: Arroyo Is what I'd like to see.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 13, 2023 13:03:41 GMT -5
I’m frankly expecting little. It is mid-July and he has not played a game (in nearly a year!). If he gets back first week of August… which seems fast… he’d have to hit the ground running. Truthfully, I just don’t think he’s a good enough player to make an explosive impact. If he fields well and hits mediocrely… which I think is a fair expectation… he doesn’t really swing their record by that much. A win, maybe? No team will improve at the deadline as much at a position from their first half production at that position as the Red Sox would if they got the player you described at short stop. So if that doesn’t move the needle I’m not sure what does to you.Add: Chang already gets them halfway there probably, but Story is likely to be much better than Chang. This is where I'm at too.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 13, 2023 10:21:22 GMT -5
They are going to have to kill it for the next two weeks. It is an easy stretch. Cubs, A’s, Mets. They need to won 2/3 of those games. I see the second half as more of same. Hot and cold. Big wins, give-aways. Health will be decisive. I don’t think Story will move the needle like some do. Maybe Sale can come back and help. They need dast returns from Whitlock and Houck. But a big injury could send them spiraling, too. I hope Paxton spent the break getting full-body PRP injections. What are you expecting from Story that won't "move the needle"?
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 11, 2023 18:21:25 GMT -5
After hearing Chris Cotillo’s report on the Name Redacted podcast about Kiké’s crap attitude, I’m now leaning on parting ways with him. I also agree that Duvall would make sense to hold onto as your RH power bat off the bench unless you’re getting a quality return from a trade. He was getting some reps @ 1B so maybe the team could start plugging him in there during the second half? Reyes also may seem redundant w/ Chang, but with the way injuries have been @ SS this year, I prefer to hold onto to him as long as the team can for depth. Don’t think Duvall was actually taking serious reps at 1B, as some others have explained when the picture was circulating.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 14:44:55 GMT -5
Not tweeting it out because I can't confirm, but I heard Teel may have been underslot by quite a bit. That seems odd for a guy who fell further than expected. Why would he do that? As someone else said “what else is he going to do, go back to school?”
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 13:10:48 GMT -5
Would love some arms today. You’ll get em.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 3:55:10 GMT -5
Bradley Blalock: 6IP 4H 1ER 0BB 8K. 15 swinging strikes. His looming Rule 5 decision will be interesting.
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