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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 1:25:34 GMT -5
Boom!! Chicago, Chicago that toddlin town. Looking forward to being there Sunday.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 0:40:20 GMT -5
Can't Duran and Refsnyder both play center? Moreover, I hear we have a guy at AAA who is a pretty good defensive centerfielder if either of those two get hurt. Rumor has it that the guy at AAA who plays a mean CF is also a competent SS. He clearly will struggle some with MLB pitching, but could it be worse than Kiké's .602 OPS? I think absolutely not. The downside to moving Kiké is that we could stunt Cedanne's development a little bit (if we had to call him up) - he clearly would benefit from some more time at the Woo incubator. Secondary downside: Not going to get anything better than a meh reliever in return, and the Sox will be eating the contract. DFA'ing Reyes is cheap/effectively free. A .602 OPS in the majors (this year) would be a nice mark for the prospect you speak of.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 0:35:19 GMT -5
Assuming he signs where do we think Teel slides in to the rankings? Is he the highest rated C in system now I would imagine? The 6/7 range would be the plausible spot, initially.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 10, 2023 0:28:15 GMT -5
Who else is staying up till 12:30 to see if we get a podcast tonight? One of my favorite listens every year.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 9, 2023 10:21:26 GMT -5
Nimmala or Shaw.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 8, 2023 7:10:59 GMT -5
Abreu walked, doubled, and homered for Worcester tonight. OPS now 847. He may factor in to any offer made to Verdugo. I like Abreu as a prospect, don’t think he will factor in much, if at all.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 8, 2023 1:08:47 GMT -5
Wow, so Doyle has Nimmala in the 20-30 range. I'd be all over that pick underslot. Also at slot. Nimmala would be an incredible pick.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 7, 2023 13:11:16 GMT -5
Duran Devers Turner Yoshida Story Verdugo Arroyo Casas Wong
That’s a SEXY lineup.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 7, 2023 5:44:43 GMT -5
I continue thinking trading Jansen will be the big move they make.
Allows some resources to be reallocated in 2024, doesn’t cripple 2023.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 21, 2023 9:20:42 GMT -5
All five starters in the current rotation have an xFIP under 4.00. Bello: 3.92 Whitlock: 3.91 Houck: 3.71 Crawford: 3.32 Paxton: 3.10 I think this is sort of vindicating my thought going into the season that with like 8 starters, each of whom is a big question mark, things would probably turn out okay because with that many options you only need to hit on about half of them. So we have a very solid looking rotation despite Pivetta disappointing, Kluber imploding, and Sale most likely being out for the rest of the year. Of course the caveat here is that now we have used up all the margin for error and another injury would open up a hole in the rotation. Also in an ideal world Houck would be in some role where he never has to go through a lineup a third time.
Someone as savvy as you using xFIP as a seemingly meaningful stat got me thinking.
FIP and xFIP were useful stats before Statcast, because there is so much noise in the results after the ball leaves the bat. Statcast -- specifically xwOBA on fair batted balls -- has not just made FIP irrelevant, it has exposed it as a colossal misunderstanding. While it's true pitchers have limited control of balls in play because of all the noise, it has never been true that pitchers do not vary much in the quality of contact they give up. Which was the belief that made FIP reasonable.
(Geekage notes for this study will be added sometime in the next two days.)
Last year (chosen as a full sample size), for regular starting pitchers, the average xwOBA on batted balls was .363. The individual numbers run on a continuum from .307 to .412.
Fourteen of the 15 best pitchers at limiting good contact (.307 to .333 contact-xwOBA, or cxwOBA for short) had above-average strikeout / walk results (i.e., their xwOBA on SO, BB, and HBP was less than the league average of .190), and the exception, Framber Valdez, was just a bit below (.199). These guys were collectively 20% better than average on balls not in play. As you move down the list, you start encountering guys like Martin Perez (16th, but 100 in K/W) who limit hard contact by nibbling, and guys like Michael Kopech (21st, but 134 in K/W), wild but with velocity and stuff that that are just hard to square up.
At the other end, 19 of the 24 guys with the worst contact allowed were below average in K/W, and all but two of the exceptions were just a bit above average. The remaining 22 guys averaged .216, 14% worse than average. One of the exceptions ranked 133 in quality of contact allowed but 9th in K/W, and the the other ranked 135 and (tied for) 10th. An eerie similarity! These guys pound the zone and if they give up some solo homers, so be it. They are of course Gerrit Cole and Nate Eovaldi.
There are enough guys with unusual approaches or skill sets to bring the correlation of K/W and cxwOBA down to .25. But that is still very significant (p =.002). It should be possible to divide pitchers into groups and isolate a population of pitchers for whom K/W and cxwOBA correlate really well. There is, BTW, one inherent weakness in xwOBA, in that (this year) 8.2% of batted balls are expected weak hits -- 7.7% bloops and 0.5% swinging bunts. Those are poor quality PA that are scored as good. Whitlock gave up 5 likely bloop hits while beating the Yankees, which wrecked his xwOBA for that start. In his other 3 excellent starts in this stretch (tossing out first 3 because of the injuries) he's allowed 4 expected bloops hit, which is totally as expected.
If FIP were a building, I would burn it down. So this (with much more) seems likely to be my first published work.
Great post. Learned something new about xwOBA!
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 12, 2023 13:23:38 GMT -5
Disappointing for the kid. Heal up well.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 9, 2023 10:37:04 GMT -5
RSS posted interesting Devers trends on twitter today. I'd recommend checking that out, if you haven't already.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 5, 2023 11:31:16 GMT -5
I'll bet we see Kiké in CF and Reyes at SS today Good call.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 5, 2023 11:02:19 GMT -5
I've enjoyed the Refsnyder experience.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 5, 2023 10:59:56 GMT -5
A little interesting. Wonder if this is setting up a Tapia trade for slight salary relief? This could mean Duran up for the remainder of the season too.
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Post by tjb21 on May 9, 2023 11:13:41 GMT -5
That's where my mind went when I read phils' post; was about to confirm that my thought was correct, but I trust freddy! I guess in theory, Tyler McDonough would be the other candidate if he ends up being a homegrown version of Brock Holt TMD was high on my list of intriguing minor leagers coming into last season. Hopefully he continues developing.
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Post by tjb21 on May 3, 2023 14:16:32 GMT -5
The offense has been a joy to watch.
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Post by tjb21 on May 2, 2023 13:33:57 GMT -5
Diekman and Franklin German were DFA'ed by the White Sox as part of a huge roster shakeup. Those trades continue looking better and better.
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Post by tjb21 on May 2, 2023 12:27:03 GMT -5
What a stud.
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 28, 2023 14:09:25 GMT -5
Guess: Kluber IL stint incoming, to make room for Bello being called back up before his 15 day "demotion". With the Whitlock injury news, Bello is back up already. (potentially) Brutal for Whitlock. Anyone know the details of ulnar neuritis?
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 25, 2023 14:47:46 GMT -5
Terrible news for Yu. Was having an incredible defensive season and gets injured in a freakish way. Get well soon!
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 24, 2023 14:49:54 GMT -5
Guess: Kluber IL stint incoming, to make room for Bello being called back up before his 15 day "demotion".
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 17, 2023 15:13:05 GMT -5
Masataka Drew. LOL (sorry, couldn't help myself, please stop rolling it over) This is quite the compliment.
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 17, 2023 15:07:21 GMT -5
If Duran doesn't make it, it won't be because he didn't do everything humanly possible to be a better player. Questionable whether the org has done him right. Ian had some optimism about Duran on the latest SP Podcast. Worthwhile listen, per usual.
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 17, 2023 14:51:28 GMT -5
Arroyo continues fighting for the crown of biggest issue on the team. After today he'll have a WPA below -1, and he was already 60% worse than the second biggest negative-offensive-contributor (Casas, who will have improved his WPA today), and the worst in all of baseball by 17%. The Red Sox actually have the league leader in WPA (Duvall) and the league laggard (Arroyo). Arroyo being this putrid bums me out. Really enjoyed the Arroyo super-sub experience prior to 2023. Here's to Christian figuring things out!
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