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Post by geostorm on Aug 30, 2015 6:31:48 GMT -5
Doesn't look now like he will have to go to the bull pen. It was obvious all along that his upside as a starter is too great to send him to the bullpen while he still has options, I've said it several times. But this board always gets hit by nauseating amounts of recency bias.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 29, 2015 18:46:50 GMT -5
The guys legs are so f****d up, cut him some slack. Calm down man! Hey, if that was close because of the heel or whatever other nagging leg injuries he has, then I apologize. But I'm so used to seeing him pimp his homeruns that I assumed that's what happened and was why he nearly got thrown out. I actually thought you were going to respond that if he got nicked up night before, and with his legs already "so F****d up", why didn't he just get rest and the whole game off, rather than rolling him out there in top of the 9th...and whether it was more for padding the lead, or more for keeping Papi happy, by padding another game towards triggering another bonus, since it appears it may be a bit snug getting to all his incentives.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 21, 2015 19:22:56 GMT -5
Why did we not keep Cespedes? Because then we could've used the Hanley money towards a deal w/ Lester or another #1 type, kept Cespedes one more year as a placeholder, before opening up all three OF positions for the next 3-5 years or so made too much sense?
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Post by geostorm on Aug 18, 2015 23:38:00 GMT -5
Remember: Dombrowski built excellent farm systems when he was GM of the Expos (Cliff Flord, Rondell White, Charles Johnson) and Marlins (Miguel Cabrera, Josh Beckett, Edgar Rentaria). It would be unfair to say that he does not understand the importance of building a strong farm system or that he is unable to build such a farm system. Interestingly, his first Scouting Director, when he took GM post w/ startup Marlins, back in 1993, has been with the Red Sox since 2012 (Gary Hughes), and his Farm Director from '93, Dan Lunetta, is Director of Minor League Ops, or something similar, with DET.
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Post by geostorm on Jul 30, 2015 21:27:00 GMT -5
Is there room on the 40 man for a speculative play on Beachy? I understand the history on 2x TJ SPs isn't strong (did I see none have made more than 10 starts > 2nd TJ?...that true?) He had a strong start to his career, and, IIRC, had pitched well post-1st TJ...and early results seem encouraging for ARI's Patrick Corbin. Brandon Beachy rhp 1 year/$2.75M (2015), plus 2016 option 1 year/$2.75M (2015), plus 2016 club option signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 2/21/15 15:$2.75M, 16:$3M club option $0.25M buyout added to option with 10 innings pitched in 2015 option increases $0.5M each for 1, 5, 10, 15, 18, 21 starts in 2015 I'd bet he stays in NL otherwise, if goes through waivers. His stats from rehab, prior to being placed on waivers to make room for LAD's acquisitions, today. www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=545404#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL
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Post by geostorm on Jun 9, 2015 13:53:25 GMT -5
Pat Light moving up to Pawtucket per Alex Speier. Positive development (non-draft related) Making it draft related ... that makes three guys on the Pawtucket roster drafted in that 2012 pool: Marrero, Johnson, Light. All of them seem likely to have at least some major league career and may have long ones. Not a superstar there, but a solid class if Johnson works out. And maybe Buttrey makes it from lower down. Nothing like the 2011 bonanza, but they had fewer picks and less financial flexibility, of course. Going back through the draft history is a good way to put today in the proper perspective ... with no supplemental pick and no second rounder, Benintendi will have a lot to do with the success of this class. Johnson & Pat Light - the two comp picks for Papelbon, iirc?
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Post by geostorm on Jun 9, 2015 6:47:49 GMT -5
odds HOU adds to their 2015 take by popping Matuella themselves, at #79...seems they may still have some $ left to be that agressive.
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Post by geostorm on Jun 8, 2015 19:43:06 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Jun 8, 2015 18:24:41 GMT -5
When I think of Lasorda, I think of him, together with one of my all time favorite "bit" players/characters, in this short lived comedy -
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Post by geostorm on Dec 13, 2014 18:02:38 GMT -5
Figure that to be a "good team" you probably need to get roughly 1100ip from your starting pitching staff." I'd respectfully disagree w/ the basis. IMO, in this day and age, I'd look for a good staff to average 6 innings per start, and just taking a quick look at the last two WS winners, w/o getting into the finer math (drilling into the pitchers who worked out of the BP, as well as making a few starts), expecting about 960-980 regular season innings seems a more reasonable basis. That carves away a significant amount from the projections. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013.shtmlwww.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2014.shtml
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Post by geostorm on Dec 13, 2014 10:53:09 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson with a nice little exercise, certainly one way to examine whether you need an ace to win a World Series: www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141212-how-essential-is-an-ace-to-a-championship.eceHe defines pitching like an ace as posting a 130 ERA+ over the course of a season. FWIW, for the current rotation, Clay Buchholz satisfies the first criteria. Nobody for second or third. For what it's worth, here's the list of pitchers who had an ERA+ over 130 last year: Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister, Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright, Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, Henderson Alvarez, Jordan Zimmermann, Garrett Richards, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb So the Marlins had an ace last year because of Alvarez. Braves had an ace because of Alex Wood. Rays had an ace because of Alex Cobb. Any team they pitch for in the future will have a player who pitched like an ace before. Who knows what Richards and Keuchel turn into? So to me, that's kind of a useless distinction, really. MacPherson did another piece in the journal looking at the volatility from year-to-year of who the best pitchers in baseball are, and there's a ton of variability. www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141212-best-pitchers-in-baseball-each-year-since-2010.eceThere's danger in going overboard just to get a guy you can call an ace. There are very few who hold that distinction from year-to-year consistently, and even the ones who do can suddenly fall off a cliff. Seriously, of the guys on the list I just posted, would anyone be completely surprised if, say, beyond Kershaw-Sale-Felix, any of those other pitchers just fell off a cliff this year? Remember when Justin Verlander was a sure thing? When any number of Josh Johnsons or Gio Gonzalezes were going to break through? I'm not saying you shouldn't go acquire a guy like that if you can. I really do hope that the Red Sox are able to acquire a guy like Shields, Scherzer, Hamels, or Zimmermann. I also hope they don't sacrifice the process in order to do so. Cherington has the club in a much better negotiating position now that the rotation is serviceable. It would be insane to give Scherzer 190 million or trade Betts and Swihart for Hamels or something now, just to have an "ace" in the rotation on opening day. 100% agree...interesting, looking at that list...and the link narrative. I'm not one to think you need a "ace" to win the WS, but rather you need at least one SP to perform like an ace, during the season (for me, 3000-3500+ pitches of quality ball), to get you into the playoffs, and at least one SP to pitch like one through the playoffs. I see three - Fister/Cueto/JZimm - that, if they are allowed to reach free agency, w/b available, next off-season, in what's projected to be a deep market...veterans in Lester/Waino/Hamels, who have been fairly consistent + performers, working off long term deals...elite talents like Sale/Kershaw/Felix, also locked up...and, much more than a handful of guys that were either trending towards a breakthrough, or seemed to have come on unexpectedly (at least from afar)... ...point being, I'm also fine if Sox decide to start w/ the hand they're currently holding...that the current rotation could compete for the playoffs, and, based on the above referenced 2014 analysis, it shouldn't be a surprise, if one of those SPs, currently projected in the rotation, ends up posting a 130+. (when Hoyer dealt Kluber for Ryan Ludwick, chasing corner RH power, in SD, back in 2010, think he likely projected him w a ceiling of 4-5 guy, not CY caliber, btw) Eyeballing those names, it also underscores the analysis John Henry pointed to, previously, regarding the value in SPs being found in they're in their 20s - Wainwright the only one started 2014 season > age 30... ...accordingly, it may well be pretty good odds that Sox get an "ace like performance" during 2015, on that basis, from someone currently on their roster, as the Cubs have from getting one from Lester...and they should be dealing from an even greater position, next off season, should they decide to look to supplement further from outside the organization...
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Post by geostorm on Dec 13, 2014 0:43:46 GMT -5
So...is it possible it went something like this, "abridged", over the 2-3 days or so (...explaining the elongating close on the Miley deal)...
...RS/BC - "Miley for Rubby and Webster...and you want a little something else...no...I know you like him, but he's not on the list...no...no...not being funny...yeah, we'll include Flores but we need a little something else, then, ourselves..."...
...AD/DS - "Spruill?"...that's more than a little something, Ben...lookit...throw in this Myles Smith kid on a flier, and we'll call it done.
I liked the Miley deal, as finally announced...coupling it with this deal, better still...
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Post by geostorm on Dec 12, 2014 10:43:44 GMT -5
I understand this is a "2015 Catching Options" thread...but if I could look at this from a longer view, of 2015, building into 2016-2019 or so period, given the value of pitching in general, and SP especially, would I be in a significant minority that wants to see the Sox have both Vasquez & Swihart together, at least through their controllable years?...
Impact catching is in short supply. Most scouting reports have them both as, or potential to be plus defenders...Swihart a SH w/ a plus bat, and I may be more optimistic than most on Vasquez hit tool developing, in time...a la Y Molina, albeit not necessarily to that extent.
To my thinking, that would be great value, a significant competitive advantage, and an ability to keep both players fresh throughout the entirety of the season (not to mention insulating the team from injury, should one go down...).
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Post by geostorm on Dec 12, 2014 10:26:52 GMT -5
I like the direction the Sox have taken, option C, so far since we lost out on Lester. 1. Young talent with projectable floors and decent ceilings. 2. Innings eaters who didn't cost too much. 3. Ground ball pitchers in Fenway with a good defensive infield. Hopefully with an improved XB at short with offseason work. 4. Cost affective. 5. Possibly most importantly . Gives Sox the opportunity to pick up an ACE midseason. With all the prospects in the system the Sox can make a big move based on how the season is progressing. If any of the following JBJ, Marrero, Coyle, Cachenni etc. hit well in AAA there value will be higher than what it is right now. Especially JBJ and DM who I feel both will have very good MLB careers. The Sox should have one of the best AAA teams I have ever seen. This all leads to options. or, worst case, the opportunity. - if able to rehab Masterson, and Porcello continues on his current developemtnal trajectory - if the Red Sox are not contending at the trade deadline, to evaluate whether there's a better return for either, in trade, as compared their valuation of QO and comp pick route. On the comment regarding the 2015 Pawsox - as a native RIer, the projected opening day roster looks as strong on paper, as any AAA Red Sox team I've had a chance to see here in my backyard...and likely not a coincidence Boston reportedly is purchasing the AAA franchise. Probably have to go back to their days when the franchise was Louisville in the 70s to have that depth of talent in their AAA club. I'd actually like to see the Sox work around trading any of the top pitching, this season, and prefer to take a view of how they look at the end of NEXT off-season, towards them setting up their pitching staff for sustained excellence, of 4-6 years or so, going forward. Towards that end, my ideal 2015, would have the Sox contending, w/ balanced rotation, backed by a strong BP, solid defense, and deep balanced hitting attack. That Masterson has a good enough year to qualify for a QO (if that's even possible), or to be flipped at the deadline...Porcello continues his current trajectory, and either is upped, on a reasonable deal at year end, or garners a comp pick...Buchholz pitches well enough to make those option years of his seem good value in trade or hold...Kelly flourishes in his first full year as a SP... ...and that the young arms get a chance to develop further, esp at AAA, and come next off-season, from a pitching evaluation and acquisition perspective, the Red Sox have max options and depth & financial flexibility in a 2015 off-season where there's anticipated significant SP FA depth, another developmental year for ERod/HOwens/BJohnson esp, whether SWright can be a viable SP, and a settling out on Ranaudo/Barnes fit. So I'll of course be pulling for a 2015 playoff run, but I'm also very interested in looking at the narrative, this season through next off-season...IMO, what they do now through then RE pitching will set them up for the 2016-2019-20 or so, and that they're very well positioned to put themselves in a very strong position. I don't know exactly how they'll get there...but they are, IMO, well positioned to be able to accomplish that.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 27, 2014 13:51:34 GMT -5
Comparing Tulo to Xander is insane. The only thing Xander has done better or can do better than Tulo is stay healthy. Tulo is a true shortstop. Xander is a square peg in a round hole. His whole value is with the bat. I hope Betts and Xander both hit and stay with the team. Sox need a leadoff hitter and a middle of the order bat. I just hope they get a SS and move Xander because I would rather have my crappy defense in the corners rather than the middle. my point was more on what may have been unrealistic expectations for XB's age 21 season, than making a straight comparison, w/ a frinedly reminder that putting up that many ABs at age 21 is atypical...that being said, XB's age 21 season measure up well, statistically to Tulo's age 21 (and age 23) season...and I don't underrate the durability "tool", even if it is the "only thing"... ...he hasn't given back any money to the Rockies, so it certainly impacts what they've paid for in they're eval of return/value on his contracts.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 27, 2014 12:40:03 GMT -5
I'm sure you could consider both of them capable of being below-average defensive shortstops. Just because Xander has that spot and Mookie doesn't have a position doesn't mean the value of the player changes. The value of the player absolutely changes to the team. You can't play two shortstops (or, more realistically, two second baseman), so if Betts has to be pushed to another position, especially one like the corner outfield which is very low on the defensive spectrum, it makes him potentially tradeable. If Betts would be a win more valuable at 2B than in RF (which is very likely the case), another team might value him highly enough that they'd give up enough in return to make it worth moving him. Yes!...I agree 100% on that last point about Betts bringing more consideration from a team who saw him as 2B...their value will be established by the teams interested in either a top of the order bat, and a RH middle of the order bat, both of which could play in the middle of the diamond, factoring in their respective inventory, and considering other outside options...so, yes, agree, that considering the 2B FA market, and that Betts was not just the top 2B in the minors, but likely seond only to Kris Bryant in terms of minor league performance... ...and w/ XB...go take a look at what Tulo was doing at that age...some team will highly value a top 5 prospect bringing a middle of the order presence, that will likely play anywhere on the field, but, to start, it play very well at SS... ...that being said, I want them both...I'd like to see the Sox actually find a young power bat to add to XB for next 4-5 years... ...I'm probably in minority on this, but I don't see the value in Stanton, if the price is 3-4 elite prospects...the next best power bat in the Sox system seems to be Devers, but even if he continues to follow/exceed XB's early trajectory, in minors, that likely puts him 4 yrs or so away, so THAT might be the more reasonable piece to include, if they're trying to put together the nextgen Manny/Ortiz, to build around... ...and w/ Mookie/Castillo in front of "next gen" for the next five years, w/ cost certainty...yeah, that's what I'm for, what I hope BC and baseball ops are for, if they truly are looking to put together the next great Red Sox team... ...so, if this thread is really a "which should we include in the impending offer for Stanton, in disguise" thread, I'm in the "neither" camp...concerned before the season, that for different reasons, getting the value of a full season hadn't happened w/ Stanton, not too mention he's too close to FA, IMO, to be in on him for the level of consideration that's been speculated on... ...and, being new here, although having greatly enjoyed reading for many years, I'd don't recall seeing an "either or" on Vazquez/Swihart, though I'm sure it's discussed...I'm likely in the minority there, as well, that considering how important the position is in running the game, and especially it's most critical asset - pitchers - I'm for keeping both...both project to be (if not already) better than average defensively, w/ Swihart's hit tool more developed, and considering his minor league contact rates, I think CV's will develop, though perhaps not as quick as some may like.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 26, 2014 22:20:27 GMT -5
With distinctly different offensive skill sets, and roles in the batting order, each important...in the post Ellsbury, soon-to-be post Ortiz era, I'd like to see "both", going forward, not "either, or"...
...want Mookie at the top of the order, and still feel Bogaerts will be a impact RH middle of the order bat, which of course plays up best at SS, but I still think would be above average at 3B or a corner OF position.
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