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Post by geostorm on Dec 31, 2015 15:24:00 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Dec 7, 2015 20:22:24 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Dec 2, 2015 20:04:54 GMT -5
working off with the projected 2019 Red Sox lineup on this site, as a rough jumping off point, and factor in whatever you will of the anticipated player development, including the impact of Price on the young pitchers from 2016-18, as anecdotally referenced by Archer & Stroman, how would this 25 man look to you?... ...again, as a rough jumping off point (recognizing that Hanley has only an option for 2019, and Pablo has a commitment for 2019, and an option for '20, I've, for this exercise, swapped Pablo in for Hanley) - Starters RH Rick Porcello LH Eduardo Rodriguez LH Henry Owens LH Brian Johnson RH Anderson Espinoza Bullpen RH Michael Kopech LH Trey Ball RH Matt Barnes RH Brandon Workman RH Pat Light LH Willaims Jerez LH Luis Ysla RH Teddy Stankiewicz Lineup C Blake Swihart 1B Rafael Devers 2B Dustin Pedroia 3B Yoan Moncada SS Xander Bogaerts LF Andrew Benintendi CF Mookie Betts RF Jackie Bradley DH Pablo Sandoval Bench C Christian Vazquez 1B Sam Travis IF Deven Marrero IF OF Rusney Castillo
Now, consider that Price has opted out...what would you project the dollar commitment to the above projected roster would be?...what would you project to be the additional payroll available to be?...if you're regretting having provided the opt out, three years earlier, how, from among the projected FAs would you first look to direct your available payroll?
I guess my overriding question - hope really - would be...is it possible that the RS in some way see Price as a "player bridge"...that the Price signing isn't necessarily representing a philosophical change, as it is a necessary commitment to get to where they really want to be operationally, as an organization?...
...and if "my hope" isn't the RS long term philosophy, that the payroll of the above referenced projected roster, could support locking up their own talent, early, and still have money available to sing one of the projected >2018 free agents, Price included? That the big picture could set up quite nicely for the RS and their fans, regardless of how Price's decision on the opt-out breaks?
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Post by geostorm on Dec 2, 2015 0:12:52 GMT -5
Appreciate someone more skilled/expert than I, please post what a reasonable expectation of certain members of the Red Sox SP inventory currently available, might be at, developmentally, at the start of 2019.
Would not include Miley nor Clay, as their respective contracts w/b done.
Would like to see how the rotation might fill out, w/o Price, but with up to a potential $30 some-odd M AAV contract, in Red Sox' back pocket, at the end of Price's opt-out year, and also including potential >2018 FAs.
Some of the posts in this thread have already alluded to Red Sox having options for that 31M AAV, and if their current minor league SP inventory develops, on average, more towards their respective ceilings, available money could be directed towards other considered needs...
...some have also referenced all the >2018 FA options (not limiting to just SPs)...
...what I haven't seen is a reference to where we hope/expect guys like Porcello/Kelly/ERod/Johnson/Owens/Espinoza/Kopech/?, might be in three years, developmentally, in some ordered fashion, independent of whatever influence a guy like Price, anecdotally, seems to have.
With all the discussion on the opt-out clause, I was trying to better assess what that scenario might look like, together with the FA options available at that time, understanding that some may think a better assessment would be to first project what the entire line-up might look like, going into 2019.
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Post by geostorm on Dec 1, 2015 23:35:55 GMT -5
a link to an article, reviewing some of the intangibles referenced by some in this thread, previously, but from back in the early Fall, from projo's Tim Britton - "Is David Price the exception? Free-agent pitcher brings presence on and off the mound..."... www.providencejournal.com/article/20150924/SPORTS/150929622/?Start=1Some interesting posts on Gammons' twitter feed, including this factoid - Note from Baltimore:the 3 Tiger pitchers the O's beat in the '14 ALDS are now signed for $607M
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Post by geostorm on Dec 1, 2015 21:53:18 GMT -5
I hate the Lester comparison talk. Lester is not an Ace. Around June 1, 2013 people were questioning if they would exercise his 2014 option because he was so bad for a long period of time. Then he got hot down the stretch and during his contract year. Lester is very good and can pitch great but has not been consistently great like Price. Price is in the discussion for a top pitcher in baseball year after year. Lester isn't ...and its got to me worth a few million more, to be able to thrown over to first, no?
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Post by geostorm on Nov 30, 2015 16:30:38 GMT -5
You know what I'm talking about. I'm fine if you disagree and am not particularly interested in running it to the ground. Been out of touch, on vacation, so just catching up, here...but, no, I wasn't aware of what you were thinking, but apparently you have the secret on how to know what someone else is thinking...please pass that along...I'd find it a very useful tool.
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Post by geostorm on Nov 24, 2015 22:11:03 GMT -5
It did kind of go in their favor-- the whistle was blown while the ball was still in the air, so it should have been a do-over rather than a completed pass. (Of course, had the whistle not been blown, it might have gone for a big play, but hard to say for sure-- the CB slowed up once the whistle was blown.) Also, the persecution complex among Patriots fans is just the worst. For instance, the last play of the game should have been out of bounds and given the Bills a hail mary shot. Guess what-- nobody but a few hardcore Bills fans care. Huh? Regarding your sweeping generalization, "among Patriots fans", where you initially focused on the disposition of a couple of plays, in a single game - Humor me - I'd appreciate you fleshing out your opinion, jmei, given, your "For instance,...", doesn't support it, imo.
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Post by geostorm on Nov 22, 2015 8:40:20 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Nov 22, 2015 8:33:25 GMT -5
On this week's version of Mike Reiss' weekly column on what's going on w/ NE and rest of NFL - espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4787734/patriots-defense-takes-multiple-hits-personnel-wise-with-lingering-illness - Item 4, specifically, revisits why I was particularly pissed off at Goddell/Vincent/NFL not just about the 1st round pick, but especially the 4th rounder the NFL dinged NE on, for the next draft, coming out of their sham of an investigation - "4. ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter’s report that teams will likely be able to trade compensatory draft picks in 2016 might be more significant to the Patriots than any other team. The Patriots are expecting three to four compensatory picks as a result of losing Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork, Shane Vereen and Akeem Ayers in free agency, and they are also without a first-round pick from the NFL’s Deflategate punishment, so it adds some pressure to what they can do with their middle- and late-round picks. Also consider that in 16 years with the Patriots, Bill Belichick has swung 55 draft-day trades, which reflects how he likes to move around the board. The only year in which he didn’t make a draft-day trade was 2004." Then, as now, my thought was something similar to "this", on why they eventually decided to also ding the 4th rounder, which seemed, by all accounts, esp inexplicable - Goodell to Vincent - "Troy...we need to have something we can point to, if things don't break our way, especailly if this gets to court, with a worst case scenario of our ruling being overturned, so we're taking their 1st rounder, next draft...put that in the release"... Vincent to Goodell - "Understood...btw, Roger, while that will hurt, it may be somewhat mitigated by the fact they've 3-4 comp picks likely in play, including, based on our preliminary analysis, our projections of them receiving a 3rd rounder..."... Goodell to Vincent - "Good point...let's take their 4th rounder, too." I could be off, but other than something similar to that, I've had a hard time understanding how they came up with "and a 4th rounder".
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Post by geostorm on Nov 20, 2015 12:45:34 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Nov 19, 2015 18:27:10 GMT -5
We do ask the board to refrain from lengthy cut/paste posts taken from other places. That's unfair to people like Speier who does a lot of original writing, wrapped around some very good links. Better to drive others to his email newsletter as was done above, or to link to the site if that's where the material came from. That way they get the benefit of the traffic and SoxProspects gets the benefit of building a solid reputation with outside sources. Thanks. Apologies...in my rush to share, I should have tried to link, but perhaps not as efficient as you all, in that regard, not knowing where to link from, since I receive his 108 related musings as an email narrative. Regarding my indirectly getting wrapped on the nose, a second time, by CH,as he edited down my post, and commented - the narrative I posted was not "behind a paywall", but rather a "free" narrative by virtue of my having signed up for his blog... ...some of the linked articles therein, be well be behind a paywall - or perhaps I'm "off" on understanding the distinction, but I get the larger point. thx
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Post by geostorm on Nov 16, 2015 20:25:57 GMT -5
I also don't think Sam Travis is the key here. The Braves don't have the DH so trading for Hanley and Travis seems counterproductive. Also, Sam has been raking but I don't think anybody projects him to be as good as Freeman has been. Career OPS+ 126 at very young ages. I like the ATL as a trade partner, but more checking in on potential of adding a controllable RP power arm piece, understanding each carries their own risk, team is willing to take on. From - CWithrow/AVizcaino/MFoltynewicz
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Post by geostorm on Nov 16, 2015 19:24:56 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Nov 13, 2015 22:14:07 GMT -5
Absolutely brutal. I don't care how much you like the idea of trading prospects as a philosophy, trading these prospects for this player is indefensible. I know some people just root for the laundry no matter what, but my love for the Red Sox has always predicated on them actually being a smart, progressive organization. That's not what they are anymore. I feel numb. People that are saying that we should have used his package to get an ace, don't you think DD tried to do that and was either told the ace wasn't available or it would cost a crap ton more. Gammons on MLB Network, earlier today, indicated "...DD took 3 runs at Gray, before believing Bean was serious on not trading Gray", fwiw
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Post by geostorm on Nov 12, 2015 21:15:29 GMT -5
speaking of "power arms", appreciate thoughts on ATL arms Vizcaino and Withrow, both of whom have significant injury history...or youngster Mike Foltynewicz...
...they seem awfully thin in the OF, w/ reports of them kicking Olivera to the OF, and including C Maybin, Swisher, and Bourn, all of whom are on contracts where '16 is final year plus an option for 2017, and all of whom ATL would likely be happy to offload...they looking to open their new stadium in 2017, and sure their pointing to readying their rebuild for that...
...in the minors, prospect Mallex Smith seems closest to making the big league roster.
What might be considered a reasonable "ask" for each of them, and not necessarily limited to Sox OF inventory?
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Post by geostorm on Nov 9, 2015 21:07:29 GMT -5
Dri Archer (headache?), Monte Ball (only "Emergency List Tryout" that hasn't been signed) and Travaris Cadet (We Barely Knew Ye) are some of the names being mentioned to replace Lewis. Ball is likely only mentioned bc he was in for a tryout. Don't think his skills align with the Pass Catching back need. Having read this, previously, on Travaris Cadet - optimumscouting.com/draft/articles-draft/diamond-in-the-rough-travaris-cadet-rb-appalachian-state.html - while googling up on him, when he was initially on Patriots radar, and in camp, earlier this season... ...that reported backstory, beyond the talent, framed Cadet as having the type of commitment to playing football that appeals to BB/NE, and I marked him as a sleeper, if White didn't take that 2nd year "leap", and before the hamstring injury slowed Cadet, knocking him out of near all the preseason... ...he's worked w/ NE playbook, had been brought back during the season (only to have the hammie issue crop up again), and only been off the Patriots' roster 4-5 weeks, having been released to make room for Bostic. I would think he's already been considered, if not called, and don't recall seeing anything that would have otherwise compromised his returning...for all we know, if NE does have a current med update, he may already be in, or on his way in, for a med exam. Heck...according to his twitter feed, his "location" = Foxborogh, MA! - twitter.com/TravarisCadet39?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^authorI see the NYJ were reported as having him in for a looksee, early October...a month later, should think the hammie wouldn't be an issue.
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Post by geostorm on Oct 9, 2015 16:03:19 GMT -5
Portland or Vancouver would make a lot of sense to me in the under-served Pacific northwest for another AL team. For the NL, you could go almost anywhere. Indianapolis has done well historically for Triple-A attendance and they support two other major league sports teams. They are my darkhorse favorite, with one problem - the NL North is pretty obvious in the configuration you have. Charlotte, New Jersey (or Brooklyn if the territorial rights chance in the next CBA), or Montreal are all good options. Colorado is in a tough space if they go to four divisions. Could need to move someone (them or Arizona) to the AL to make it sensible. In my lifetime I really would love to see Havana and San Juan teams. Off top of my head, and obviously working outside of whats realistic, right now, my preference w/b a bit of a hybrid, incorporating some of your thoughts, James, and some of Chris' from immediately before you, with a sprinkle of my regard for what TB could've been, in ops and on field, w/ proper support, and my regard for playing at "altitude" - AL East: MON(former TB), NYY, BOS, BAL South: CHI, TEX, HOU, KCRen North: TOR, DET, MIN, CLE West: LAA, SEA, OAK, MEX perhaps flip CHI/CLE to keep Cubs/WSox mapped if interleague scheduling between them w otherwise be impacted NL East: NYM, PHI, WAS, PIT South: MIA, ATL, SJuan (former COL), Havana North: MIL, CHC, STL, CIN West: SFG, LAD, SDP, ARI Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3080/2015-postseason-thread?page=3#ixzz3o6cEMGr8
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Post by geostorm on Sept 30, 2015 22:08:52 GMT -5
Somehow the bullpen kept the Yankees off the board the last two innings, but what a struggle!! Hard to see how the Sox are going to pull this one out. Vision clearing up a bit?!
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Post by geostorm on Sept 29, 2015 22:34:38 GMT -5
To me, 89, the biggest threat to next season's offense is that David Ortiz finally hits the wall of Father Time. It's going to happen sometime soon. Because of his history, they will keep him in there and keep him in there, probably for most of the season, no matter what he does, because of who he is and to give him every chance to regress to the mean. But to every player comes a time when they don't regress. Perhaps, but keep Yaz in mind. He slowed down as he aged, yet there he was, back in 1982 and 1983 at ages 43 and 44 putting up at least league average seasons, and Ortiz will only be 40 next season and has aged very, very slowly, so his "decline" could very well be a productive season for most players. With the kids coming up around him (take a bow tonight Blake and Mookie), and others on the way, he won't necessarily have to put up ridiculous numbers to contribute. Point well taken, considering in all of MLB history, only Barry Bonds has put up 30+HR/100+RBI at Ortiz' current age or older. His 2014 numbers are "ridiculous" because they are that historic. To bank on him making history twice...can't expect it, but would of course love it, if he goes B2B on that historic achievement.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 14, 2015 15:05:24 GMT -5
Alex Speier presents it so, in his very fine "108 Stitches" -
David Ortiz is not the greatest player in Red Sox history. Good luck wrestling that title from an organization that featured Ted Williams and Cy Young and Carl Yastrzemski and Pedro Martinez, among others.
In fact, according to Baseball-Reference.com, Ortiz ranks 10th in franchise history in career (regular season) Wins Above Replacement. Here’s the top 10:
Ted Williams, 123.1
Carl Yastrzemski, 96.1
Roger Clemens, 81.3
Wade Boggs, 71.6
Cy Young, 66.2
Dwight Evans, 66.2
Tris Speaker, 55.4
Pedro Martinez, 53.8
Bobby Doerr, 51.2
David Ortiz, 48.0
It’s no slight, of course, to rank behind that group of nine – which includes seven Hall of Famers, one player who is at the least among the three most dominant pitchers whose careers started after World War II (Clemens), and one criminally underrated star whose career would have been viewed very differently if it had taken place in a subsequent era (Evans).
But, that caveat notwithstanding, it’s worth asking at a time when his 500th career homer crystallizes conversations about legacies and intergenerational significance: Is Ortiz the most important player in Red Sox history?
His sustained middle-of-the-order production over a 13-season stretch now outranks any other hitter in Red Sox history for consistency save for, of course, the great Williams. At 39 years old and at a time when offense has been depressed considerably, his line (.275 with a .361 OBP, .556 slugging mark, and 34 homers) looks very similar to what he’s done over the entire course of his career in Boston (.289/.385/.566 with an average of 34 homers a year).
That sustained excellence production, in turn, has allowed him to represent the lineup centerpiece on three World Series winners over an expanse of 10 seasons between 2004 and 2013.
No one else in Red Sox history can make that claim. His initial arrival, meanwhile, came as such a bargain – as did many of the following years – that it permitted the Red Sox all kinds of flexibility in the construction of a roster around him...one that had me reflecting on.
Some players represent giant payroll-choking roster burdens despite star-caliber performances – Alex Rodriguez with the Rangers comes to mind, among many other instances – but Ortiz (though compensated handsomely for a DH in recent years) has always fit neatly into the rest of what the Sox wanted to accomplish. Indeed, he continues to do so, helping to explain why the Sox’ visions of moving beyond their current station at the bottom of the American League East necessarily will be wrapped closely with his future production, just as was the case when he re-signed with the team after the last-place 2012 season.
Add to it the fact that Ortiz owns a postseason highlight reel unmatched in team history, and it becomes easier to appreciate why, at the field level, Red Sox players and coaches don’t shy from saying how much the opportunity to play with Ortiz means to them.
It remains to be seen whether he ends up in the Hall of Fame (he has Nick Cafardo’s vote) or the number of homers he eventually accumulates. But for the Sox, it’s more than enough to know that in Ortiz, they quietly acquired a man whose impact on the franchise would be perhaps more far-reaching than anyone else.
For those who hadn't a chance to catch it, nor are a subscriber, I thought it might be found an interesting read, for comment or not - one that had me reflecting on whether I had taken that "impact" for granted, in some ways.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 1, 2015 6:34:16 GMT -5
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-watch-may-flames/ (from May 2014 - 3 videos accessible via link) Luis Ysla, LHP, San Francisco Giants (Profile) Level: Low-A Age: 22 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A Line: 47 IP, 38 H, 17 R, 37/19 K/BB, 2.49 ERA, 3.75 FIP Summary Everyone loves a power lefty, right? Notes I was at Luis Ysla‘s start against Hickory on May 13. A lot of things about that start were memorable. He threw eight innings and allowed just two hits, one run, and no walks while striking out seven. He took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, hit 96 mph in the seventh inning, and showed an intriguing slider. All of those facts are indeed quite impressive, but the one I simply can’t shake from my head is this: Luis Ysla was signed for $7,500. That’s $7,500 well spent, because Ysla has easily the best fastball I’ve ever seen from a lefthanded starter. He worked anywhere from 90-96 mph in my viewing, but could reach back for 94-96 whenever he wanted–as mentioned, he hit 96 in the seventh inning and 95 in the eighth. The pitch comes in with late sink and run from his slingshot delivery and is absolutely too much for Low-A batters: You can see there that Ysla tends to dramatically vary the effort in his delivery. When he’s low effort, he’s still in the low 90s, but it’s when he ramps it up that the ball climbs into the mid 90s. Regardless of this quirk, it’s still a fastball that averages 93 mph with plus life, an extremely rare beast for a southpaw starter. As you might expect, Ysla tends to rely heavily on the fastball–I’d estimate he threw it 75% of the time or so in my viewing. He does, however, have a very interesting second pitch that he’ll turn to for strikeouts at times: The slider comes in at 78-83 mph with big, sweeping bite. It’s not particularly consistent at this stage, but it plays up because he uses it judiciously and because hitters have to worry so much about the fastball. It’s at least an average pitch already even without that and has the chance to be a 6 pitch in the future with additional tightening. Ysla threw exactly three changeups in my viewing: the pitch is 85-87 mph with some sink and a touch of run, and frankly, he could have used it more without embarrassing himself. It’s a playable offering that could get into the average range with consistent reps. Ysla is 22 years old already–he signed at age 20, which is a big part of why a southpaw this talented was signed so cheaply. But his dominant May–batters hit .189/.235/.253 off him and he put up a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings–backs up his stuff. It’s easy to see him turning into a Sean Doolittle sort of pitcher out of the bullpen, coming in and just throwing a ton of mid-90s heaters, but his offspeed arsenal is promising enough to not discount his chances at starting. Given his age, though, he’ll need a whole lot more reps on the changeup to make a rotation gig his long-term home. Regardless of his eventual role, Ysla should be a valuable big-league arm, one of many intriguing young pitchers the Giants are cultivating.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 30, 2015 18:33:47 GMT -5
Didn't see today's game, but Mets Twitter seems just as angry with West as my Red Sox contingency. Joe West is such a jerk that everyone hated him even when he was a competent umpire. Now that he isn't that either, he's the single worst thing about baseball. Hopefully, his jumping into a crew he typically isn't part of, per Sox radio team, towards expediting his getting to 5000 games, means he's (selfishly) looking to hit that mark this season, and then (fngers crossed) retire...
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Post by geostorm on Aug 30, 2015 14:38:25 GMT -5
This team is nothing without Big Papi. Speaking of...while he may reach 30 HRs for the season, 100 RBI seems a bit out of reach (point being, no one at his current age, in MLB history, not name Barry Bonds, has ever had a 30 HR 100 RBI season) Say Papi was not available next season...strictly "between the lines"...odds Hanley could approximate or exceed, as DH, in 2016, what you would expect from a 40 yo Papi?
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Post by geostorm on Aug 30, 2015 14:32:25 GMT -5
I was hoping we could avoid a Joe West show this series. How is he still an umpire? Heard Dave O'Brien (or Joe Castig) mentioned on the radio broadcast earlier towards the start of the game that he is usually not part of this crew, but that he appears here today towards expediting his reaching 5000 game benchmark, fwiw
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