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Post by geostorm on Aug 19, 2016 22:30:49 GMT -5
There have been a lot of great surprises this year on this team, but Porcello has been the best feel good story for me. He has been excellent for us. ...as I'm reading this thread, now, I've some of the postgame shows playing in the background, something catches my ear, I look up, and on the screen is Fathead size pic of Rick Porcello on my TV, and to his right, a statbox titled "Back w/ a Vengeance", and the following - Rick Porcello Since 8/26/15 (33 starts) Record 21-7 ERA 3.18 Innings 222.1 BB/K 39/194 (Red Sox 23-10 in those starts) Cy Young or not...that'll pull the wagon perdy good
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Post by geostorm on Aug 19, 2016 16:04:16 GMT -5
I had offered this thought, earlier, outside of this forum, and it was dismissed out of hand - I had wondered if Red Sox would ride Pomerantz as a SP, right through any current career high in innings, until he was deemed ineffective, perhaps due to fatigue, and then be shut down...or would they likely have an innings total in mind, after which they'd transition him to a BP role, for whatever was left in the season...
...that was countered by a "WTF would they do that (the latter) after having dealt Espinoza?!".
Despite my further clarifying, that it was just a query about possible options for this season only, I couldn't bring the other party around...
...and then I saw Alex Speier, in today's 108 release, comprehensively reviewing the various available BP options w/ thumbnail sketches, including this one -
"DREW POMERANZ OR EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ: The Red Sox also could consider keeping Buchholz in the rotation and moving Pomeranz or Rodriguez into a late-innings power arm. Pomeranz, of course, has several years of experience as a sometimes-dominant reliever, and he’s currently in uncharted workload waters."
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Post by geostorm on Aug 19, 2016 15:36:20 GMT -5
Okay...at the end of the most recent Red Sox Orioles gameday thread, I used the imagery of a motorcycle, reviewing how much blame is to be parsed out to the rider (JF), mechanic (DD/FO) or "parts"/players...Alex Speier, in today's 108, uses "buttons". I 100% agree w/ his final line, assessing responsibility for yesterday, and this season, to date.
From 108 -
"Let’s get this out of the way: Junichi Tazawa should not have been pitching in the eighth inning Thursday, and he shouldn’t have remained on the mound to give up hits to each of the first three batters of the inning. At this stage of his season and career, he’s not a reliable eighth-inning option. Since his return from the DL, opponents are now hitting .364/.436/.697 against him.
At this stage of their respective careers, Brad Ziegler was probably a better choice to open the eighth. That doesn’t mean that he was a good choice to open the eighth.
In his last nine appearances, Ziegler is 1-4 with four blown saves. He has allowed six runs (four earned) in 8 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .351/.455/.459 against him in that span. Six of those appearances have come in clean innings, with Ziegler going 0-3 with two blown saves and opponents hitting .400/.464/.560 in those games.
Given that Ian Kinsler – who was leading off the eighth – owned a .455/.500/.636 line in 12 plate appearances against Ziegler, and that Miguel Cabrera (batting third in the inning) has a career .667/.600/1.000 line against the submariner, it’s not hard to see why there might be some reluctance to use Ziegler in that situation.
Based on the recent evidence offered by both pitchers, Farrell faced a choice between not ideal and what appeared to be – probably at the time, certainly after the fact – worse. He elected the worse choice, a cooked Tazawa who simply hasn’t shown anything to justify an eighth-inning appearance against Detroit’s best hitters.
Farrell failed to push the right buttons. He bears responsibility for that. So do the faulty buttons (the pitchers themselves) and the collector of the buttons (the Red Sox front office). "
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Post by geostorm on Aug 18, 2016 16:38:24 GMT -5
100% agree...when you had posted on this or another thread, how this seems to be missing "something", that, as I recall, that you couldn't quite put your finger on, despite them having shown, in stretches, how dynamic their offense could be, and, more recently, how effective their SPs could be, pitching to their talent... ...the imagery that came to mind, at that time, was of kick-starting a just completed restoration of a classic motorcycle, that turned over, but didn't quite fire-up...but you knew when it did, it would really "go"! (I probably watch too much "American Pickers" or "American Restoration"! ) That's a great image. Furthering that imagery...assuming the mechanic and rider are two different entities (i.e. DD-FO/Farrell)...how to parse out failure to not quite get it "turned over", yet...?... ...the mechanic has clearly worked hard on the rebuild, in a number of areas, down through the last bit of what they felt was necessary fine tuning...and/or should the rider be able to start er up. as she stands?...but for some reason, hasn't yet been able to get her to full throttle, for long stretches... ...when Clay left that game today, and Sox entered the 8th inning w/ a 3-1 lead, I thought perhaps we're in the middle of that run, if they could hold on and push their streak to "7", amidst this challenging stretch of their schedule... ...settling the BP appears to be standing between this Sox team, and a great run on the open Road.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 18, 2016 9:07:42 GMT -5
FWIW, too, as much as I've had an uneasy feeling about this team repeatedly this year, their talent is undeniable. They've yet to put it all together. If they do, they have the capability to absolutely roll over anyone. If just one of Pomeranz, Kimbrel, or Price reverts to their pre-acquisition form, it would be a huge boost. If all three do so (which really shouldn't be surprising), they have no peer in the AL, and it's really not that close. 100% agree...when you had posted on this or another thread, how this seems to be missing "something", that, as I recall, that you couldn't quite put your finger on, despite them having shown, in stretches, how dynamic their offense could be, and, more recently, how effective their SPs could be, pitching to their talent... ...the imagery that came to mind, at that time, was of kick-starting a just completed restoration of a classic motorcycle, that turned over, but didn't quite fire-up...but you knew when it did, it would really "go"! (I probably watch too much "American Pickers" or "American Restoration"! )
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Post by geostorm on Aug 17, 2016 19:49:59 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Aug 17, 2016 8:33:36 GMT -5
A bit off-topic, but curious on folks take on this -
If the Red Sox go 22-22 over the last 44 games (While they have played > .500 on the Road, YTD, I do understand the RoS is heavily dotted w/ top-heavy AL East)...
...and, while winning the Division is the preferred Regular Season outcome, some team behind them will have to play AT LEAST .590 ball to beat Sox out of WC...(if Sox go 22-22, SEA would need to go 26-18 to beat them out of last WC)...
How confident are you.of Sox playing at least .500 ball, RoS?...what team(s) behind them do you feel can finish at .590 clip or better over RoS?
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Post by geostorm on Aug 12, 2016 20:25:45 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Aug 10, 2016 20:09:07 GMT -5
Trey - 95 pitches; 57 for strikes...out after 6 innings; 1 run; 4 hits; 2 walks; 7 strikeouts
1-1 top 8th
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Post by geostorm on Aug 6, 2016 11:23:32 GMT -5
Gammons tweeted earlier today that Pomeranz is the 3rd instance of the Padres not disclosing injury information. Ries is another recent example and perhaps Kimbrell could be the 3rd one. Why wouldn't the Red Sox pursue compensation as they gave up a lot of top tier prospects to acquire former Padres' players? ...with it being announced late yesterday, that Rea is now scheduled for TJ surgery.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 5, 2016 22:36:40 GMT -5
Nomar's '97 season was pretty special. Nomar was just pretty special in general. We will never see a RHB ever like him again. I think he might have one of the best averages in MLB history for a RHB in the year he hit .372 Yes, sir...had to go back to Joe D 1939, off of a quick review, to have a RHB hit higher...and none, since. www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_season.shtml
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Post by geostorm on Aug 5, 2016 22:10:27 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Aug 4, 2016 22:16:21 GMT -5
...more a forward look to the next Series, but thought I heard the radio broadcast team mention it confirmed that prospect Jose De Leon, and Rich Hill, will make their Dodger debut, Sat & Sunday, in that order... ...I see speculation, as of now, www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-report-20160804-snap-story.html but nothing yet that seems to confirm what was heard on WEEI, on how LAD is lining up the weekend.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 1, 2016 23:46:09 GMT -5
Dang it...that was sloppy defense by Leon, on the 3rd strike...
...as underscored by Lyons, better approach on 3rd strike to Lind.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 1, 2016 23:07:27 GMT -5
WEEI Radio broadcast just said as much...Red Sox will announce after the game, adding Benintendi to the roster...
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Post by geostorm on Apr 27, 2016 19:49:17 GMT -5
First, it may be different with DD. Second, I probably worded things wrong. It's never been about good stats - in the sense that many of us think about it. Each player has certain goals that are laid at the beginning of each year (and I presume each time they move up a level). Achieving those goals, or advancing with respect those goals is what gets the promotion. There my be some other factors in terms of timing as well. Third, Statistical analysis, isn't necessarily stats. Maybe in a more advanced or sabermetric way. But they're not counting RBI's or avg. for a promotion. Sorry - Didn't mean that as a critique...(why that entire narrative, instead just "statistical", was highlighted). I thought, given the thread topic, here we had quotes on the topic, direct from DD. It's not ground breaking that he references that consideration of promotion factors in a combination of the player's skills/approach "being better than the league", in whatever way the Sox assess that, statistically, and the Sox assessment of the player's make-up/ability to handle that next challenge... ...and thought his stated philosophy may have provided insight into one of your comments, and why that possibility may be part of the developmental path for certain players - "...unless they have the track record from previous years and were conservatively placed." - that it may be a factor other than a "previous years track record", as the reason behind delaying a promotion.
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Post by geostorm on Apr 27, 2016 16:19:48 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts, having just read the thread, from start to finish -
1. The way the poll was set-up, why didn't it just have one option - "Fire Farrell"; whoever set that up, clearly had a pre-disposed position, regardless of the very apparent majority opinion of this group. 1 & 3 are basically the same, and item 2, the way it was written, is slanted to the point of almost forcing a responder to 1 or 3. A more fair construct would've have been something more like "not at this point in time, due to significant roster construct issue beyond his control;
2. Pivoting off #1, a more fair poll, would have also included my preferred option - Farrell's decision making "popularity", this season and prior, would likely not be too far off from any other MLB manager I'd have an opportunity to watch "every day" over the course of a season.
I also note the praise heaped on TL, without placing his term as interim Manager. in context. I don't have the memory of most of the members here, but I recall TL's success was against the backdrop of DD arrival, the removal of Hanley from the OF, and some members of the rotation pitching at a level they had not, earlier in the season.
Regarding on the suggestion made that JF did not have control over the line-up (as I recall, during the back and forth in this thread about giving JF credit for certain decisions this season, measuring in-game versus more "global" decisions like playing time - e.g. playing Shaw > Pablo being credited to FO > JF) - wasn't JF quoted, very early this season, that he wasn't use to that type of latitude? I'm more of an opinion that PRIOR to DD, JF would more likely have been directed to play Pablo > Shaw...and that DD signed off on JF filling out a lineup card that gave Sox best chance to win.
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Post by geostorm on Apr 27, 2016 15:18:35 GMT -5
Nobody is worthy of promotion after 10 games or so, unless they have the track record from previous years and were conservatively placed. Also, players have stated goals heading into the year and meeting those goals is typically the main reason for a promotion. Those goals aren't often stats, I'll bet. Unfortunately this thread gives an opportunity for people to mention all these guys that started off well this year and they should be in line for a promotion. Before the thread veered slightly off-topic, to climate impact, I had noted from that Roanoke article, which, while posted, didn't cut/paste the Q&A closest to this thread, nor was it commented on...for those that hadn't read the article, fwiw - "RT: Is there one thing more than any other that tells you a guy is ready to move up? DD: “No, I can’t really say there’s one thing. But I think probably when you can see that a player is just better than the league — and usually, that’ll be a statistical analysis — but then you also have to be prepared on the individual’s makeup, because if you send him to the next level and you’re going to challenge them, which is really going to be the case in most instances, how do they handle the failure at that point? "It’s kind of a combination of how well they’re performing and how they are going to do at the next step in battling through that. A lot of that’s just where they are as far as youthfulness, mental makeup. Those are the type of things that you really have to keep a pulse of when you make those decisions.” "
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Post by geostorm on Mar 13, 2016 16:58:25 GMT -5
Looking like bringing back Blount and then drafting a couple of running backs is the best way to upgrade the position. I don't think Blount is going to get that much money and he was having a very good year until he got injured. Still think out of all the injuries Blount's was the one that cost us a title(most people seem to think it was Lewis). We need to bring in 2-3 backs to add a good amount of depth. I'm w/ you on keeping tabs on Blount...and a few others still on the market, a number of which would fit in their RB rotation - www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/running-back/There's also Tyler Gaffney, who they were able to IR, this past season. Not that they all hit, but a number of players that "come out of nowhere", have similarly taken a slower path to a roster spot - blog.masslive.com/patriots/2014/07/nfl_draft_2014_patriots_prospe.htmlHere's another, still rostered from last season's draft, at big area of need - TE - www.rotoworld.com/player/cfb/132027/aj-derbyOn the defensive side of the ball, Darryl Roberts made a good early impression. that I'm looking for him to build off, towards providing some depth at CB, especially with both Butler & Harmon coming duefor new deals. He's yet another under the radar player already rostered up, that could be the one that comes out of nowhere, next season - www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/darryl-roberts?id=2553353www.patspulpit.com/2015/5/2/8537485/2015-nfl-draft-results-patriots-select-marshall-cb-darryl-roberts-in
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Post by geostorm on Mar 8, 2016 15:35:35 GMT -5
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Post by geostorm on Feb 24, 2016 19:37:53 GMT -5
...that's especially interesting, considering this exchange (which surprised me, if true) 9:30 Ben: Hi Jeff, what are the MLB teams that invest most/least in their analytics departments?
9:31 Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the whole spread of actual money invested, but the Dodgers obviously have a lot going on. On the flip side, you’d be shocked by the current state of the Red Sox and the A’sfrom - www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-21916/
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Post by geostorm on Feb 15, 2016 17:03:11 GMT -5
...with just four other AL teams in the top half of that list - Texas/Hou @ #3-#4, MIN @ #8 and Tampa @ #15...
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Post by geostorm on Feb 6, 2016 18:25:44 GMT -5
Hope we all realize that there are enough question marks with this team to make all the projections prone to both overshoot and undershoot. That's because the team has really transitioned to a younger core, with lots of questions about their older players and real uncertainty about the pitchers as well. Here are just some of those. See what you can do with these questions to "tighten up" the projections: - Is Uehara OK now?
- Can Bogaerts start to re-introduce power into the mix?
- Will Betts continue to develop his hitting skills, and to show well in the outfield?
- Which Jackie Bradley will show up (offensively)?
- Was that just a tired arm on Tazawa last year?
- Will Ramirez make a move back up towards career norms?
- Will Sandoval make a move back up towards career norms?
- Can Ortiz continue to perform and at what level?
- Will Pedroia get hurt again?
- Can Ramirez stay healthy?
- How many innings can Buchholz pitch?
- Was that the real Joe Kelly at the end of last season?
- Was that the real Rick Porcello at the end of last season?
- What does Roenis Elias bring to the team?
Those are just a few I came up with off the top of my head. I'm sure all of you can think of a few more. Gammons casually mentioned in a recent BA column that Brian Bannister deserved credit for Porcello's rebound. That's very interesting, because Bannister was hired in January, as a pro scout and analyst, and was promoted to the newly created position of Director of Pitching Analysis and Development on September 10th, which was after Porcello's first three rebound starts and after Kelly had run off 7 great starts. Kelly was using a dramatic new pitch mix, and Porcello had gone back to his old approach after the new one, with more 4-seamers than 2-seamers, had been terrible. It's easy to imagine that they didn't start taking Bannister's advice for the MLB team until later in the season, and that his obvious success led to the creation of the new job. The potential impact of elite pitching analysis on the staff is something few have considered this winter. But I think it could be very big. On the evolution of Porcello, there's this from Jeff Sullivan, over at fangraphs - "As Rick Porcello closed out 2015, he was throwing a version of Adam Wainwright’s curveball. The pitch is very similar by its basic characteristics, and it’s also very similar based on the difference between itself and the fastball. I’d be shocked if Porcello had Wainwright specifically in mind, because that would be weird, but I presume Porcello has been doing whatever this is on purpose. Where he’s gotten to is pretty fun.
Wainwright’s a righty who stands 6’7. Porcello’s a righty who stands a comparable 6’5, and Wainwright had his ace breakout at 27. Porcello just turned 27 at the end of December. Wainwright’s emergence was fueled by breaking balls, and now Porcello is in an interesting place, where everyone’s thinking about his sinker, but the curveball might be a real weapon. There are similarities. There are very basic similarities, and there are very specific similarities.
Granted, there are similarities between lots of great players and lots of inferior players. The limitation of the pitch-comp system is it says nothing about consistency, and I can’t imagine Porcello yet trusts his curve the way that Wainwright has trusted his. One still has to assume Wainwright commands the pitch better, and then there’s also the matter of Wainwright having the cutter, which is better than Porcello’s. The effectiveness of a pitch is in part about the effectiveness of the other pitches, so Porcello still has a lot of proving to do. The point isn’t that Rick Porcello turned into Adam Wainwright when nobody noticed.
The point is simply that Rick Porcello’s curveball has evolved into something extremely similar to Adam Wainwright’s curveball. You can choose how much to make of that. If nothing else, it’s something to watch for."
A link to the complete analysis - www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-wainwrightization-of-rick-porcello/
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Post by geostorm on Feb 2, 2016 20:27:08 GMT -5
More from Badler, today, on another International topic - www.baseballamerica.com/international/stacking-up-most-productive-international-programs/w/ this on the Red Sox - "Even without Yoan Moncada at the top, the Red Sox have been arguably the most productive international program in baseball in the last several years. Xander Bogaerts is no longer a prospect, but the 23-year-old shortstop is already a franchise cornerstone player. Third baseman Rafael Devers and righthander Anderson Espinoza are both premium prospects, while shortstop Javier Guerra and outfielder Manuel Margot (both sent to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade) should both be Top 100 prospects as well. They were also the team that originally signed an extremely raw Frankie Montas, one of the game’s better power pitching prospects. Beyond their premium talent, there’s a good wave of depth as well at the lower levels with players like Luis Alexander Basabe and Wendell Rijo, among others. It’s no surprise the Red Sox gave Eddie Romero a promotion from international scouting director to vice president of international scouting." (I'm sure there were similar circumstances w/ other teams, but you could also cite current Cards' Carlos Martinez fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/10/23/the-strange-red-sox-history-of-cardinals-flamethrower-carlos-martinez/ )
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Post by geostorm on Jan 11, 2016 20:46:37 GMT -5
Here's an eval by ProFootballFocus, which I largely agree with - www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/10/pro-everything-you-need-to-know-for-the-patriots-chiefs-matchup/As for the observation regarding lack of NE pass rush on non-passing downs...losing DEasley was underrated, in that respect, and the pickup of Hicks helped mitigate that, and Branch's play (and Malcolm Brown's play) seems to have stepped, up in Easley's absence, but, boy, had been anticipating that 4 man interior DL rotation to really crank it up, a la SEA DL in 2013, for the playoffs... ...and with, Sheard, to my eyes, the most effective edge rusher, though on far more limited reps. rotating w/ Chandler & Ninko, on the edge...that is a match-up where I could see Sheard's reps dialed up ...and KC tackle like EFisher v Sheard (esp) & CJones, is as critical as Houston v Cannon/RT, and tied into Houston's health, which seemed far from 100% last week, as they worked Houston in for about 2/3 of DEF snaps v Texans.
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