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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:47:35 GMT -5
The other thing with the Dombrowski approach is that we don't get the 60-page threads discussing the Theo/Ben four-way deals/long winded negotiations. I'm gonna miss those days. or not.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:39:31 GMT -5
It's a pleasure to watch Dave Dombrowski operate. He's transparent and acts with decisiveness. Says he wants a Closer, 4th OF, and an Ace pitcher. Boom, boom, boom. When he sets his sights on someone he rarely misses. Seriously. I've been one of the skeptics on DD here, but I absolutely love this about the guy. He's not messing about. I read somewhere that one reason teams like trading with him is if he wants your guy, he'll pay the price, as long as you don't try to screw him around - because he can see that too. Give your price, don't waste my time. makes me wonder what the Indians/White Sox are asking for Carrasco/Sale. If DD says no to that, you know it's gotta be really excessive.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:21:20 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal @ken_Rosenthal 7 sec. Confirmed: Price deal with #RedSox is seven years, $217M. No deferred money. Three-year opt-out. With the three year player opt-out, this could be much more than 217m, depending on what you think the chances of decline are. If there is a 30% chance of decline to Sabathia levels in years 6-7, then add $15m. Add another 9m in luxury tax in 2016 (plus more each year unless they dump salary or the luxury cap is raised). True value is somewhere close to $240m, which was expected. Deepjohn, you're pretty funny man. You're always throwing out some economics analysis and I never understand any of it. And I have an economics degree. Much respect bro.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 1, 2015 17:17:23 GMT -5
Anyone else think DDo is one of those Christmas shoppers who gets you everything on your list and is done shopping by Dec 1st? He skipped Black Friday and got everything at full price though. Right at my max comfort range. Like the opt out actually. Seriously. Dombrowski doesn't mess around. Of course it's not his money...
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Post by notguilty on Nov 30, 2015 9:50:03 GMT -5
Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Shaw, Rodriguez, Bradley, even Holt. That's quite a youthful, inexpensive core right there. And better still there's much more behind it. People compare Price to other players on huge contracts, but often miss the mark. Price isn't a question mark, he's a known commodity in the very market the Red Sox compete in. He has a career of being lights out in AL East and that's exactly what Boston needs. Cherrington's panic buying of Sandoval and Porcello are distressing and prohibitive, but are unlikely to be repeated by Dombrowski. Certainly Price is a different beast all together. The point on the youthful and inexpensive core is true. It's a good one. What's behind it, we'll have to see; between DD's trades (you'll agree he'll probably trade a few more guys, though maybe not now), (potentially) giving away compensation draft picks, the lack of picks on the international front for a year or two, and some prospects maybe not panning out, things can get tight pretty fast. Pedroia (I like him, but he's no longer cheap for what he offers], Sandoval, Hanley, Porcello, Castillo (maybe), Buchholz, that's a lot of cash in relatively uncertain performance there. On the second point, it's a matter of perspective I suppose. Cherington's moves on Sandoval/Hanley/Porcello were terrible (I still have some hope on Porcello), but there was a need for a third basemen and additional power in the lineup. Just like we have a need for front line starting pitching now and may make another terrible move to fix it. There's always a good justification. I just think dropping a boatload on Price is a terrible way to go about it [if it hampers your payroll]. If the payroll is no problem, then this is really all moot. Now this belongs to the other thread, but my limit is probably $210m. Above that, the albatross factor really picks up, I think.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 30, 2015 6:50:03 GMT -5
I'm going to add a dissonant voice here and just say this whole "ace" obsession is excessive and will get the Red Sox in trouble. I'm tired of coming last too, but man, the solution to this is not giving 7/230 or whatever other crazy amount to David Price. This is really the definition of insanity. Doing the same crazy thing over and over again, for pretty much the same results. the Free Agent marketplace is the worst place to try to build a team. Those deals just don't work. As good as he is, David Price will be an albatross on somebody's payroll. I look at Cano, Ellsbury, Hanley, and I just shake my head. Even a pitcher like Tanaka doesn't look so hot now.
In the end, the best argument for this is something like "it's not my money", or "baseball is awash in dollars anyway". The first is true (John Henry will do whatever he wants), the second looks true now, but is really a bubble. Where exactly is that money coming from? Viewership? The price of live sports? Even the TV companies that are financing this are starting to realize it's money down the drain. Direc TV doesn't want to carry the Dodgers, Comcast holding off on carrying the YES network, we'll start seeing more of that.
Anyway, Dombrowski can give a crazy deal to Price. Whatever. Where I'll really get annoyed is if/when they start talking of payroll constraints or anything like that, in extending the kids or getting that extra piece. Because once you give a $200m contract, you're really saying you have no constraints. The thing with spending is once you start doing it, you have to keep doing it. That's how the Dodgers got to $300m with (almost) nothing to show for it. Other than a thousands of Direc TV customers not able to watch them because their channel is too expensive to carry.
I really fear this team is heading the way of the yankees/Tigers/ to be honest. Don't get me wrong, there are some pretty good youngsters here. But even if Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Erod et al pan out, you'll have half the team at least composed of a bunch of underperforming vets on silly contracts that are constraining team flexibility. That is a terrible outcome.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 24, 2015 19:24:25 GMT -5
I'm puzzled by the "unbelievable amount of money to spend". I thought calculations left them with around $30m, less than that now with Kimbrel. Unless they've decided to bust through the threshold, which would really be a change in philosophy for this ownership. We've become the Yankees! At least it's great during the hot stove, you get linked to everybody.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 24, 2015 8:08:19 GMT -5
I'm all for it, but how reliable is Verducci on this? Price is and should be the top target, but I'm hearing now he may want to go back to Toronto. Yeah, but those types of rumors at this time of the year are usually nonsense. First it's "he really wants to go the Cubs because he just loves Maddon"; then "He's really interested in the Dodgers because he really liked Friedmann"; now it's he really wants to go back to Toronto because he just loved him some Canada for the 2 months he spent there... He'll go where the money is. Whoever gives $220-250m, that's where he goes, even if it's Tombouctou.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 22, 2015 20:25:31 GMT -5
Like he "fleeced the league" on Donaldson to the Blue Jays? Russell to the Cubs? Samardzia to the White Sox? I swear, this “Billy Beane the genius who is the smartest and swindles all the other idiot GMs” has got to be one of the biggest myths out there since Kayzer Soze.You really should watch that movie to the end. Didn't want to spoil it for those who haven't seen it..
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Post by notguilty on Nov 22, 2015 20:22:44 GMT -5
Anything is possible but I don't see any real evidence that you have a real need for concern. DDo has done almost everything he said he'd do. He came here in mid August, watched what the Sox look like with an outfield that can actually catch the ball, determined the starting pitching depth to be full of followers, but no leaders. The depth was plentiful, but there was no horse leading the rotation. He determined the bullpen had a similar issue, and that given Koji's age they couldn't rely on him to get through 2016 without help. He determined that the only way Hanley fits on the roster is as a 1b until Ortiz was ready to retire, whenever that was (at the time). He went on record as saying he'd deal from minor league surplus. He maintained his staff. That is key. The guys running the farm system stayed on. Ed Romero Jr. stayed on. Mike Hazen was made his assistant GM. Not the actions of a guy who's about to dump every prospect and international signing made. If it were his intentions, I doubt Hazen and Romero are still there and they'd be elsewhere. So DDo goes to the meeting in November, trade chatter is more advanced this time around in November than it normally is, determines as he suspects that trading for a starting pitcher will cost him his top prospects. Romero, Hazen, and others are probably in his ear saying don't touch Espinoza, Devers, or Moncada. So he goes to the meetings with Guerra and Margot as his trade currency and determines he can fill 1 of the 2 big issues he has - closer and he gets an elite one. He determines he most likely is going to have to get a starter via free agency so he doesn't wreck the farm system or the major league team's depth. I believe that's how it will play out. Obviously he convinced Henry that they Sox will have to spend Jon Lester's money on a starter, something Henry wouldn't do last year. Anything can happen, but I'm not inclined to believe he will gut the system. Don't think his underlings would be too happy if he did and I think he believes in their work or they wouldn't be here. Most times new guys clean house. DDo didn't do that. I think this is fair and reasonable. I think like DC Sox, I've been more on the skeptical side when it comes to Dombrowski, really in terms of what his hiring meant for the direction of the Red Sox. But we can't really blame the guy for gutting the system when he hasn't done that. It's like a Minority Report thing, where you put people on trial for stuff you think they're going to do. Reasonable arguments have been made that it's quite unlikely that he will do that. Hated the Kimbrel trade at first, but I've come around on that a little bit. I'm still worried, but I think we're really all going to have to wait and see. Say what you want about DD (and I'm not a big fan), but there's no question in my mind he's a top tier MLB executive. Would rather have him than Billy Beane to be honest (hold your fire, not trying to start something, just not a Billy fan). Once DD actually starts trading the Moncadas and Espinozas, then I'll get my pitchfork back from the closet.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 22, 2015 12:48:44 GMT -5
Then he shouldn't be mentioned as the guy who built the Expos and Marlins farm systems, right? Drafting well is not completely synonymous with building a strong farm system. To build a strong farm system, it certainly helps to draft well, but you also need a strong player development staff/philosophy and the internal player evaluation chops to trade away the overrated prospects while keeping the under/properly-rated ones. Dombrowski has a pretty good history of doing the latter-- while he has traded away a bunch of prospects, fewer of them than you'd expect ended up developing into impact MLB talent, and he's done a pretty good job of holding onto those prospects that do end up blossoming. Remember, dcsoxfan was making the argument that he's a bad talent evaluator because his drafts haven't been great, and my response to that is that he isn't heavily involved in the draft, and in the areas he is heavily involved in, he's done a good job. Dunno. I understand the argument, but it does strike me as an extreme parsing to make DD look good. In effect, you're saying that DD gets credit for the stuff that worked, but the stuff that did not is somebody else's fault. You would think that the not so good output of his drafting/development team would lead him to impart some of his wisdom downstream to the drafting/dev guys (what to look for, what to prioritize, etc.), or hire people who think/look at things like him. For the record, I actually it's possible for him to have a good eye for talent once it's in the system, and not such a good eye in drafting it. And the good news for the Red Sox is that he's opted to keep a lot of the people doing the drafting/development. That, combined with his own abilities, can be a potent combo.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 21, 2015 16:38:27 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start. Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter. [...] *Billy Beane wasn't in a position to guarantee Hill a rotation spot, either, but he signed him and immediately traded his 5th starter, Jesse Chavez, who was a year away from free agency and isn't as good as Miley, for a good reliever, Liam Hendricks, with four years of control. Billy Beane can make this kind of move, because frankly, his job isn't really on the line. There’s no undue pressure on him to win. He's got to have the longest leash of all GMs in baseball. I mean, his team comes last, he makes some awful trades and he gets a promotion. If a deal like this works, it's "oh my, Billy, can you stop being a Moneyball genius?", if it doesn't it's "that Billy, he tried something very smahht; it just didn't work. I wonder what he's going to try next". When your downside risk is lower than most, it’s a bit easier to play genius. This is great for Rich Hill, but guaranteeing him a rotation spot + $6m after ~4 starts and in spite of his history is the kind of move one makes when one isn’t all that concerned about the downside. I get the money. Guaranteeing a spot (and trading your #5 in exchange for a reliever), and get applauded for it, it really takes a special one to pull that off. Jeeeze....In the great scheme of things what is 6 Million? The guy was Cy Young in September. Maybe management knows more than we do. What fun to watch and root for him though. Does Billy fleece the league again?Like he "fleeced the league" on Donaldson to the Blue Jays? Russell to the Cubs? Samardzia to the White Sox? I swear, this “Billy Beane the genius who is the smartest and swindles all the other idiot GMs” has got to be one of the biggest myths out there since Kayzer Soze.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 16, 2015 9:51:20 GMT -5
Also, DD could look at prospects as more of a negative rather than a positive. Meaning, he's banking on most of them not succeeding so he trades them whenever the opportunity arises to get mlb talent. Not caring whether they could amount to anything or not. Oh. Like half the people on this board then.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 14, 2015 10:14:00 GMT -5
After sleeping on this a little bit:
-I'm happy they got Kimbrel. With closers, I don't care much for WAR, or whatever. You need somebody who can do it at the back end, there's something about it that goes beyond mathematical equations. People have been saying any good relievers can do it, closer by committee, whatever. You look at a good reliever like Tazawa, and it's obvious you need a special type to do this. Even more so in a town like Boston, and in the AL East.
-This is still a big overpay, for reasons others have outlined plenty in this thread. I can live with that if this is the only trade of the sort DD makes this offseason. Go buy an ace. Another trade like this, and I'll lose my sh..
-Dombrowski scares the crap out of me. I just see a guy who doesn't care much for the minor leagues other than trade fodder. People have been excusing his approach saying the Detroit owner made him do it. Please. He's a dealer. It's like the Padres said, "how about you add Logan Allen", and the Sox said "who? He's in Low A? Who cares, you can have him". I'm surprised the Padres didn't keep asking, probably could have gotten somebody else. Probably decided to quit while they were ahead.
-I fully expect that within 2-3 years, our farm system is going to look like what he left in Detroit. I mean, this team will be competitive over the next year or two. But within three years, we'll be like the Yankees or the Angels, or DD's Detroit teams, with a couple of good young players, but mostly overpaid veterans. At a time when more teams are going young (Cubs, Houston, Atlanta, others), our bust cycle will not be pretty.
-Somebody said this above, but one of the great pleasures for me in following the Red Sox was the knowledge that we had a FO that was among the most progressive in the sport, trying (with difficulty) to balance the now and the later, the stats and the scouting, etc. They made their share of stupid moves (Crawford, Hanley, Pablo), but they never really lost sense of what it took to get to the holy grail - a young, athletic, cost-controlled team at major league level, and a buoyant farm system that keeps feeding it, a combination that gets you to the playoffs year-in and year out. Like the cardinals. That sense is gone. I'll still enjoy it when Kimbrel comes in to strike people out; but I'll now feel more detached from it. Like when you're rooting for a team of mercenaries. Who cares what happens next, I want to enjoy the now. That's too bad, but hey, whatever man.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 13, 2015 20:24:42 GMT -5
Well, in fairness, Dombrowski said this was going to hurt. It's not like he didn't warn us. This is what he does, he guts farm systems.
This team has decided to go in a starkly different direction. I think they're wrong, but we'll see. In the mean time, not getting attached to any of the young players. I can see DD trading any of them what whatever shiny vet. Ugh.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 13, 2015 19:51:14 GMT -5
Oh. My. God. Well, DD was brought in to blow up the farm system. Buckle up.
Not looking forward to it. Hope it's more than Kimbrel, otherwise I'll puke.
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Post by notguilty on Nov 12, 2015 19:03:11 GMT -5
Wait a year and we might be saying the same about the Red Sox. Boogeyman Dombroski is gonna trade EVERYONE. Lol. Excellent.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 29, 2015 8:38:49 GMT -5
Speaking of Toronto; quite ironic that Anthopoulos is leaving apparently because the incoming President (Shapiro) wasn't pleased with his trading (nearly) all the prospects; in Boston Cherington got fired (ok, "left") -partly- because he wouldn't trade enough of them. Heh.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 26, 2015 16:28:26 GMT -5
What's the old phrase? Those who can't...teach. Absolutely. And of that group, those who can't teach spend their days trolling the Internet.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 25, 2015 14:08:07 GMT -5
I for one don't like this hire, or perhaps more precisely, what it may mean. I generally don't like giving views on people getting fired or anything like that. Everybody is trying to make a living.
The thing I don't like about this is just the circus potential. Anything that detracts from this team focusing on winning games, to me is a problem. There's an "all eyes on Ruben" potential for distraction here that this team could do without.
Not the end of the world. Just not a step in the right direction IMO.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 16, 2015 10:02:52 GMT -5
A couple of quick lessons I see from these playoffs:
Theo: I've had my issues with him, but man, he's good. The mix of scouting (Arrieta, jeez), drafting, decisiveness (as in firing his coach to get Maddon despite the way it looked), and yes, luck (Maddon becoming available, having to "settle" for Bryant) is just excellent. People worship Billy Beane, please. One is awfully overrated, the other is the real deal. Hate to say it, but I wish he were still our GM. I'll say this though - that teardown he did in Chicago wouldn't have been possible here. Chicago was ready for it, Boston can't handle it.
Young players: Youth, youth, youth. Look at the teams that are out (Yankees, Cardinals, etc.) and those that are left. The young talent is just exciting to watch. This game is a young player's game. But you really have to be patient with them, and maximize your odds, knowing that they'll not all make it. Which is why the Sox's offseason will be fascinating to watch. Can DD be patient? Will the fans (and John Henry) let him be patient? We now want to trade top prospects (there's too many of them! They are blocked!) and give $200m+ to David Price. We'll never learn. Cherington had the right idea; too bad his execution was so lousy. After seeing these playoffs, I'm not trading any of the top 5 unless it's King Felix. Anybody else, fine, let's talk.
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Post by notguilty on Oct 4, 2015 19:28:24 GMT -5
Probably the right thing to do, even if only on a human level. But you've gotta think JF is on an extremely short leash once he returns. This is what I'm thinking too. If they struggle out of the gate next year, Farrell will be on the hot seat faster than a Volkswagen CO2 emission.
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Post by notguilty on Sept 24, 2015 16:00:45 GMT -5
So the real problem with the Sox was really Cherington, heh?
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Post by notguilty on Sept 14, 2015 16:55:43 GMT -5
David Price and two real good relief pitchers. I think the Cubs are going to be very aggressive trying to sign price. Really? You really see the Cubs having a $150m+ pitcher and a $200m pitcher? They got a billion+ in TV revenue too? I don't see it; that's a lot of money to put on two pitchers. And I'm not sure they really need to. Arrieta looks like the real deal, they've got Lester, they can sign a #2 or very good #3 (heck, it's the national league). We'll see, I guess. I think Price is staying in the AL. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees. Now they can afford 3-4 pitchers making $200m.
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Post by notguilty on Sept 9, 2015 11:09:30 GMT -5
keep Swihart sign Zimmerman trade Buch amd Margot for Kimbrelllose a draft pick if necessary. find one other middle reliever. p.s. better to lose a draft pick and sign the starter than to give up a known quantity in Swihart. We are a big market team and can afford Zimmerman minus Buch. Not sure about Zimmerman, but I like the overall thinking here. I think you call Cincinnati, see if they'd take that deal for Chapman (maybe you throw in another prospect). They're going to need starting pitching, with Leake and Cueto leaving, and may find Buch's "value" tantalizing. I think Price is really the prize; but I don't think he comes here. Too much money, bad Boston history, and the guy is a bit of an ass, at least based on his public persona. But then if he's your ace, he's your a.., I guess. Cueto scares me a bit, so Zimm may be a better option depending on the money. One of the three + a trade for another starter, and you've got something. As for the topic at hand, catching is tough to find, and Vasquez is coming off TJS. Too much uncertainty there. I keep Swihart.
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