SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 31, 2018 12:22:34 GMT -5
I can't think of a worse trade than JBJ for Wheeler. First of all, the Mets need to rebuild, not trade for JBJ. Second, the Red Sox need JBJ way more than another slightly above average starting pitcher who is always hurt and had the fortune of pitching in huge NL parks in a weak division. There is no possible way that Wheeler is better than Eovaldi in the AL East. IF the Red Sox were interested in trading JBJ, they would have to be getting a younger replacement for him plus more. I think you overrate JBJs total value as a MLB Player. I don't think GMs around the league do & I don't think they value him as high as you do. i'm not sure there's anyone who values jbj less than you do...i could care less about the bat considering the red sox are already the best offense in baseball.
also, like another person mentioned...why in the world would the mets want jbj??? they need prospects not a guy a couple years from free agency. i think you're just using wheeler as a diversion to your true purpose, which everyone knows by now...even someone fairly new and rarely on the forum like me.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 30, 2018 4:28:47 GMT -5
I hated the Dombrowski signing, but definitely have to give him credit; basically all of his major trades have worked out, his deadline deal produced the WS MVP, and even the free agent signing of Price which looked horrible for the first two plus years, well, you can't say much negative about the way David Price pitched this year. But I hope he doesn't fall in love with these players the way some organizations tend to do after a World Series win. Hopefully he doesn't break the bank on Eovaldi or re-sign Price to some crazy deal if he opts out, etc. Ditto Kelly, Kimbrel, Pearce. No need to go crazy over-the-top in bringing all these guys back because they were crucial in a postseason run. dd doesn't strike me as the sentimental type, so i wouldn't worry about overpaying just to bring guys back...if he "overpays" it's probably because he thinks the eovaldi of the past couple weeks is the eovaldi of the future...same with kelly etc.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 28, 2018 2:47:12 GMT -5
It will take us some time to come to terms with what we are privileged to be experiencing this season. Got no words, really.. except we are historically fortunate.Huh? We're better so far. Also-- I've found it odd some people have spoken of "throw-away games." This team is on the cusp of being considered all-time great. There is some luck required to win. But a 108 regular season win team overall is hardly "historically lucky." --- i think he meant as fans...lucky to be witnesses and not that the red sox have been lucky to win.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 25, 2018 22:48:02 GMT -5
nationals underperformed this past year but they still have a competitive roster even without harper and it's not like their division has a dominant team...they were within contention range basically the whole year.
the obvious sp#1 trade candidate is degrom...though san fran really should blow it up and make bumgarner available. arizona also needs to decide on direction and could part with greinke even if they want to continue to compete as they don't have the same finances as the giants.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 25, 2018 21:55:02 GMT -5
dd has always been about the big name stars...i expect him to re-sign kimbrel unless the bidding really gets out of hand...how many teams can even afford a $15M+ per year closer that don't already have one? a team first needs to at least be considered a contender to even consider it, so off the top of my head i can only think of indians, angels, and nationals.
i expect lakins to be the first to arrive early in the season whenever a need presents itself, but expect feltman to arrive later in the year and be better. if lakins/feltman produce, no reason to push hernandez to the pen
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 25, 2018 2:56:45 GMT -5
if cora uses eovaldi to protect a lead in game 3, might as well just not start him at all and keep him in the bullpen for 4-5-6 in case the sox have a late lead. worst case, the sox never get a lead and you have eovaldi to start game 7 on plenty of rest.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 24, 2018 3:29:44 GMT -5
The Sox in the post-season have 49 PA with 2 outs and RISP and have hit .395 / .531 / .763. Even without 2 IBB, the OBP is .511.
JBJ alone is 3/6, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, and one of the outs was the rocket GDP in tonight's game.
since it was a GDP (meaning only one out at the time)...it doesn't fit the 2 outs / RISP criteria, no?
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 21, 2018 16:28:01 GMT -5
If Price does opt out we kind of have to be more aggressive in the starting pitching market, right? Is anyone comfortable with: Sale Porcello Rodriguez Johnson Wright? That could be a good rotation, it could also be pretty bad, injured, and without depth. If Price opts out, I would fully expect the Sox to be all in on Eovaldi. The Porcello trade talks would die too. The Sox would need him in this case. porcello trade talks would die?? i'm pretty sure the sox have never even hinted at trading porcello in the past..the only trade talks regarding porcello are from people on this forum...based on the game threads, you seem to have some kind of bias against porcello for some reason?
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 18:50:03 GMT -5
Offer Eovaldi a 3/45. Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Eovaldi as the starters. at this rate...you really think that will be enough to keep eovaldi???
keep in mind rich hill got 3/48 at age 37 with similar injury history
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 18:45:27 GMT -5
who trades an elite reliever with control plus prospects for one year of porcello? the only reason to trade an elite reliever would be if your team is rebuilding and isn't going to make the playoffs...in which case you want prospects back and not one year of porcello. Wade Miley fetched the same kind of package. Carson Smith was a elite reliever at the time, despite his fall since then. Innings eater starting pitchers hold a ton of value, just as much as elite relievers. They give you 3 times as many innings. wade miley had two years left on his contract at 7.5M per year and i didn't consider carson smith an elite reliever...he was coming off a great year no doubt, but it was his first year and he was already considered high risk at the time and that's not even considering the volatile nature of relievers in general.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:37:52 GMT -5
One last thing, I would look into Degrom. If we can get him without giving up Raffi, a package of Erod, Chavis, Ockimey, CV, Mata and "fill in the blank") then do it or at least drive the price up for the Yankees or Astros. be realistic...sox don't have the prospects to get a degrom without including devers...simply look what it took to get sale. you can't replace quality with quantity...besides, the current entire top 10 probably isn't worth moncada/kopech.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:30:55 GMT -5
I definitely don't have all the answers, but I definitely disagree that now is the time to "hold back". When you have a championship caliber team it's literally the time to spend. If for no other reason, this team should be held together and guys should be extended. I don't think we can extend everyone, but World Series are worth plenty of penalties. I like the ideal of adding a Goldshmidt, 1B is an obvious area we can upgrade and where we have no one in the pipeline, but I'm almost more inclined to think our prospects would be better spent on pitching. We can budget around extending guys like Betts/JBJ/Bogaerts/JDM. To be clear, I don't think we can extend all 4 of those guys, I'm saying out of those four we need to see who we can extend and get a deal done. What does the trade market look like for RHSP? red sox don't have the farm system to realistically trade for a top notch cost-controlled pitcher...you would have to bring devers and rodriguez into the conversation.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:20:12 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs. Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due. yes he did, but that was because the tigers weren't going anywhere and needed outfield offense more = cespedes...a completely different situation compared to the red sox.
the red sox already have a bunch of question marks in the starting rotation...do you really want to remove as close of a sure thing you have in porcello for another high risk guy in eovaldi??? adding eovaldi is one thing...swapping him for porcello is another entirely.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 13:07:07 GMT -5
Dom traded Porcello once before entering the last year of a deal. I could see him trading him, signing Eovaldi and signing a RP for what Porcello is due. Dombrowski trading Porcello for a elite reliever with some control would help save the prospects and save on a bullpen arm in free agency. Hopefully a prospect can be added to the deal from the team acquiring Porcello. who trades an elite reliever with control plus prospects for one year of porcello? the only reason to trade an elite reliever would be if your team is rebuilding and isn't going to make the playoffs...in which case you want prospects back and not one year of porcello.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 12:32:11 GMT -5
Pedroia? Could get Kinsler back for a few million...you're right about the DH.. Kinsler might be done. I don't want him back. All he brings is the glove.
you don't need a kinsler for the regular season next year when you already have a holt and lin on the roster...you wait and see what pedroia has left and then decide on a course of action.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 20, 2018 12:18:36 GMT -5
i find it funny how many people are acting like boston is some small-market team...the only way boston trades anyone of any importance off the mlb roster for prospects is if they look like they aren't going to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. you don't trade a porcello for prospects over the winter unless you are able to bring in someone who is better than porcello and considering the budget constraints that isn't likely to happen because you aren't getting someone better for less than what porcello costs.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 15, 2018 1:51:36 GMT -5
has there been any change in his actual stuff since the regular milb season??? No, that's his stuff. It is playing up a bit as a RP. For him it's not about stuff, it's about control. okay then...has his command/control profile improved since the start of his season???
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 13, 2018 1:45:03 GMT -5
has there been any change in his actual stuff since the regular milb season???
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 11, 2018 4:33:00 GMT -5
how good is mookie??? he can even turn brock holt into justin turner / shohei ohtani...
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 11, 2018 3:55:45 GMT -5
Is there a point with Hernandez where, if he's ready to be called up and the Sox think he'd be an average, high variance starter or a high leverage reliever they'd make him a reliever based on team needs? For example if the rotation was solid but the bullpen was really struggling and needed an impact player. Or would they keep him at starter even though he'd be relatively less effective for the position, but at a more valuable position? of course they would put him in the pen...you can always convert a guy back to starting the following year (see david price and chris sale...who actually relieved for two years before converting).
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 11, 2018 3:23:05 GMT -5
I think based off of recent history, Eovaldi gets a 4 year contract between 54-70 million dollars. I'd give that to him too. He's tough against the Yankees, and the Sox need that. The Sox will learn a lot more whether they have extra money added to their payroll a week after the world series too. The Price of out expires soon thereafter. Idk if I’d go quite that high, but I do agree that his truly outstanding work against NY makes him especially attractive to the Sox. I do think his cutter might help him miss a few more bats, and I think there’s sequencing/approach options that may make him even better. He’s got very good control, and his performance with the Sox is very encouraging. I think 4/50-4/55 is about where I’d draw a line, simply in that I think he’s a possible 2, likely 3, potential 4, with serious injury risk. His stuff is well-matched to NY’s weaknesses, so even as a 4 he’d have value. And at $12.5 M a year he’d be tradable or convertible to relief if they had to swallow the deal. He’s young enough that there’s still some development upside. But I’d be real nervous about edging into $14-15M AAV. They need bargains given the upcoming salary crunch. I know it seems like needless penny-pinching, but I really believe the Sox need to do that on riskier deals and/or fliers like Nunez, because those millions/years add up. I’d actually be inclined to try for a lower AAV/longer deal, which might seem counter-intuitive, but for a guy his age, i think those are important dollars. He’d be more likely to provide excess value in any given year. They’re also in a position where they don’t “need” him...I think if you’re gonna spend on luxury, be careful with your budget.
if you view him as a "likely" 3...then you're not getting him for anywhere near your suggested price point. rich hill got $16m per for his age 37-39 years with similar injury history. if he makes a few more quality starts this postseason (fingers crossed) i wouldn't be shocked if he gets closer to porcello money ($20m) considering he's entering his age 29 season, though probably hill money with an extra year.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Sept 12, 2018 3:08:05 GMT -5
I absolutely understand this, but I'm irrational when it comes to pitchers with great stuff but bad results. I can't get over it, it's a siren song. Guys like Kelly and Eovaldi would get as many chances as possible if I was the GM and I'd be a terrible GM, but damn it one day they HAVE to pull it off. It makes me so blind I even ignore injury risk. Like when are we trading for Michael Wacha or Zack Wheeler? I'm that guy. FWIW I really like Wheeler, too. He *does* miss bats, and he has a complete arsenal with five (count ‘em, five) pitches. The FB, SL, and CB are all plus to plus-plus (I’d call the FB a 65 or even 70, the SL/CB 55-60), and a serviceable CH (45-50) with the addition of a SF this year. When healthy, he’s been a 2. I think he could Carrasco and become a 1a or even a 1 if his health permits. Wacha has a terrific CH and a very nice cutter, but his FB is hittable and his velo is very up-and-down. I’m a big proponent of acquiring Wheeler if the price isn’t too high, and trying to extend him for 3 years. It’s the Mets, who are rife with holes, poorly managed, and who need to eke out some offense with Wright and Céspedes both a mess. Conforto, Nimmo, Thor, and deGrom represent a solid core, with Rosario showing signs of life, and Matz as a solid 3 in Wheeler’s absence. A nearly MLB-ready bat like Chavis might be pretty attractive if he were packaged with some additional talent (a guy like Shawaryn would benefit from the NL and Citi; moving Porcello might also get a return to sweeten the pot). problem with wheeler is everything comes with a "when healthy" asterisk (currently nursing another injury)...he's had just two full seasons (in 5 years) and i think is actually only 1 year younger than porcello, who at least you know will most likely give you ~30 starts and ~200 innings...that carries its own value. i would trade straight across, but only because of the contracts of each.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 30, 2017 9:44:58 GMT -5
I don't know how a team is supposed to build their roster when they don't know how juiced the ball will be next year and whether sliders can still be thrown at all. Are you supposed to go after pitchers who don't rely on a slider? Are you supposed to go after hitters who only have trouble with sliders because they won't have to face nasty ones next year and you can buy low on them? I'm really freakin pissed about what MLB is doing. I don't know about team building, but i agree the juiced ball is getting ridiculous simply by the amount of one-handed home runs i'm seeing on pitches where the batter is actually fooled by the pitch...i get that guys are strong nowadays, but combined with some mickey mouse fences (ie yankees right field) it sucks to be a pitcher sometimes.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Oct 17, 2017 12:31:28 GMT -5
He looks like a child over there. Eh, that seems mostly because of those nets to me, which skews the perspective. I think Chavis' height (or lack thereof) is a definite disadvantage, but not an insurmountable one. if you follow basketball at all, "height" is outdated...all about wingspan (for a 1b, "standing reach" is probably more appropriate). a 1b who is only 5'10 could conceivably cover as much ground as someone 6'2...of course, chavis is a stocky guy so i doubt he measures well in any case.
|
|
|
Post by rivenp on Sept 20, 2017 2:22:10 GMT -5
It should be noted that for about the last two times through the rotation, the starters have been pulled at around 100 pitches regardless of the situation. The range that I recall is about 96 to 103 pitches. They're getting rested but in a different way than usually is the case. which makes it even more interesting that jf pushed erod to 110 the other day...could be that since he doesn't have all that many innings due to injury this year jf wanted to push him a bit and see what happens.
|
|
|