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Post by rivenp on Jan 6, 2019 15:17:16 GMT -5
britton back to yankees at 3 for 39...that's more than i was expecting...
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Post by rivenp on Nov 24, 2018 4:07:40 GMT -5
Yeah no big deal until we see what the Sox needs are at the trade deadline in 2019. If the Sox aren't in a position to pick up a contract because they're maxed out in terms of dollars and spending, well the fact that you spent 17 million AAV million dollars on your bench this year might be part of the reason why. a one year contract for $6.25M and maxed out don't belong in the same sentence for a team like the boston red sox unless they are trying to reset the luxury tax...which isn't happening in 2019.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 19:13:07 GMT -5
Well I don't agree its 1 or 2 out of 50 that a player who's first full season is 2.4 bwar to become a 4 bwar player. that's fine...i'm very ok with this statement. however, i would again say using shaw is a poor representative example...not as extreme obviously, but in a way it's like saying guys who are dfa'd are undervalued because take the examples of jd martinez or big papi...
"I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued."
how many non-prospects end up a 4 war player??? i think 1-2 out of 50 is probably fairly accurate...
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 17:58:42 GMT -5
who said anything about average regulars? i used your travis shaw example...you even looked up his bwar numbers for me...since when is a league average starter a 4 war player???
I used Shaw as an example of how non prospects can be undervalued. I thought I was kinda clear that I didn't see Swihart and Lin being 4 war players, I even said 1 to 2 war players with some upside. It was in the post you replied too, you just erased it and only focused on one part of what I said. well then it's your fault for not being consistent and moving the goalposts...i simply said shaw was a 1-2 in 50 situation and you came back with i'm completely wrong and changed that to 1-2 in 50 for lin and swihart to become average regulars. those aren't the same thing.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 17:25:34 GMT -5
1. Guys that prove themselves in the majors are a lot less risky than unproven prospects. 2. You can think Swihart and Lin are 1 or 2 in 50 guys to become average regulars, I don't. I'd argue its way lower than that. Those guys are burried by the crazy depth of the Red Sox super team. 1. have lin and swihart proven themselves in the majors??? i'd say that's a very questionable assumption...
2. who said anything about average regulars? i used your travis shaw example...you even looked up his bwar numbers for me...since when is a league average starter a 4 war player???
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Post by rivenp on Nov 19, 2018 4:53:36 GMT -5
They won't rebuild, so getting a bunch of highly rated prospects years away doesn't do anything for them and as we've seen with the Red Sox trades those non-prospects like Shaw can be way more valuable than top prospects. Raise your hand if you had Shaw being better than anyone traded from the Kimbrel and Sale packages? So while I didn't like the return on Cole, I get what the Pirates were trying to do, reduce risk of just a prospect only package. yes, of course non-prospects like shaw can be way more valuable than top prospects...except for one small issue - just like you pointed out, no one knows which 1 or 2 out of 50 will turn out like shaw and that's why they are valued exactly the way they are, and why they get you a thornburg instead of a thor.
you say the mets won't rebuild so highly-rated prospects years away aren't of any use??? that's why any trade for degrom or thor should include top prospects that are mlb ready...only sox guy even remotely close is chavis, and he's not nearly well-regarded enough. so unless the mets are interested in a bunch of mlb-ready middle relievers (or sox are willing to part with devers), sox aren't in play.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 14, 2018 1:58:25 GMT -5
They just put him on the postseason roster despite the fact he basically hadn't pitched all year so I really have no idea what makes you think they undervalue him. And if they DID decide to trade him, you think they couldn't get a better deal than that? I mean, Justus Sheffield for Urias straight up would be a no-brainer for the Yankees and would blow Swihart/Mata out of the water. I base my opinion of LA undervaluing Urias on his playoff usage. Pitchers like Madsen and Wood were clearly ahead of Urias in the bullpen pecking order even though Urias demonstrated better stuff. Its been 3 years since his mesmerizing debut as a 19year old,he's faced injuries. I know he still has a ton of value, but it has dropped. I also think Swihart is exactly the kind of player that would help LA. I could see him hitting 20+ doubles in Chavez. Maybe the second piece isn't Mata maybe its Groome or Chavis, but I think its a feasible deal that adds a cost controlled Arm. his playoff usage wasn't a result of the dodgers undervaluing him...it was them being exceedingly careful with a prized possession returning from major surgery
swihart was closer to being put on waivers than being the centerpiece in a trade for urias =).
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Post by rivenp on Nov 13, 2018 20:06:33 GMT -5
Hey guys! Longtime reader and first time poster here. I like the idea of bringing back Eovaldi and Kelly. A pen of Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, and maybe Poyner. Sign another lefty like Oliver Perez? I'd love to upgrade at C. Keep Vazquez. Damn, I love to watch Leon behind the plate but he may as well go to the plate with a sand wedge. I really don't have much faith in Swihart. I may get bashed for this proposal or maybe its a pipe dream, but would the Giants be open to dealing Buster Posey? I know they need to cut some payroll. Of course, they would need to eat some of his salary. Something like Posey and $24M (money owed to Sandoval) for Swihart and Sam Travis? The Giants would save around $45M. Posey would cost us around $4M for 2019, $17M for 2020 and $22M for 2021. He could also platoon with Moreland at 1B. definitely a pipe dream...sf isn't dealing posey for such a package much less eat salary...and where did you get that they needed to cut payroll? there's been talk of them joining the fray for harper...doesn't sound like a team that needs to cut payroll.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 20:17:58 GMT -5
The pitching depth is insane. They’ll probably go get some guys, but they could conceivably just use in house options and be just as good next year. that josh james was pretty impressive in relief...looked kinda like a young right-handed david price. and collin mchugh can go back into the starting rotation with the top pitching prospect in baseball forrest whitley waiting in the wings. verlander and cole are still there, so even if they didn't resign keuchel or morton, they're not in panic mode by any means.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 15:54:03 GMT -5
True, but Moreland/Pearce only cost money. With such a dearth of tradable assets I'd hate to burn several on a one-year rental. I'd hope the Sox extend Goldy if they get him. I can see him being really good into his mid 30's and being more affordable then Xander and JDM. why would he be more affordable??? (if his production doesn't decline) ...obviously xander is younger and plays ss so he's going to cost relatively more $$$ when compared to pure statistical offensive output, but why jdm?
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 15:01:57 GMT -5
Yeah for that reason alone in dollars sense, he's definitely the best option on the trade route for the Sox this offseason. A lot of this offseason will be signings and resignings, but Goldy is probably the one sort of realistic option out there trade wise if the Sox want to pursue it as one of their main targets. True, but Moreland/Pearce only cost money. With such a dearth of tradable assets I'd hate to burn several on a one-year rental. especially considering there are more pressing needs to address (as long as pearce is re-resigned) compared to upgrading 1st. i know it doesn't exactly work like this, but if you combined the 2018 sox platoon you get a pretty decent result:
619 AB / 92 runs / 160 hits / 37 2b / 5 3b / 26 hr / 110 rbi / 79 bb / 143 k = .258 / .342 / .460 / .802
and having two guys instead of one theoretically provides a better safety net and more flexibility...though one less roster spot
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 13:59:43 GMT -5
You're right about Goldschmidt though. That seems like a very Dombrowski like move there. I talked about it on the trade thread. even though he's a one year rental, i don't think goldy will come that cheap because he's also on a very reasonable contract (14.5m)...which is basically about what the moreland/pearce platoon would cost.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 4:17:04 GMT -5
Evan Drellich Verified account evandrellich “That medical hasn’t changed,” Dave Dombrowski noted of J.D. Martinez, when Dombrowski was asked about potentially revising the deal that allows Martinez to become a free agent after 2019 Evan Drellich Verified account evandrellich Could the Red Sox extend Bogaerts as the Astros did Altuve? “Well Bogaerts is [two and a half] years younger. But he’s a shortstop,” Boras said. “So he’s done a lot.” okay...so i guess it's maybe my reading comprehension that isn't very good...cuz i'm not sure i understand either of these two quotes...anybody help out here???
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Post by rivenp on Nov 8, 2018 3:49:50 GMT -5
i don't really want to get in the middle of this lengthy catfight but c'mon umass, he obviously didn't mean this: "I don't know what to say if you don't buy those three made 30 plus starts on the best Red Sox team ever, they did. You gotta remeber that, its a huge fact." of course it's fact...he doesn't buy that just because the sox won 108 games with these guys making 30 plus starts last year, that the sox will be fine with the exact same thing happening next year. just like an argument that the sox don't need kimbrel next year because they won the world series with him sucking. i don't think your reading comprehension is really that bad, so are you just trying to piss the other guy off to keep this debate going???
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Post by rivenp on Nov 5, 2018 15:54:34 GMT -5
Obviously it depends on who would be available at what price. But given the Red Sox payroll constraints I do think it makes sense to go into '19 trusting some combination of Pedroia, Holt, Hernandez, Nunez (rarely), and Quiroz. any reason lin isn't on your list?
.307 .362 .448 .810 over 300 plate appearances in aaa isn't that small a sample size seems like he's been around forever but still only 24...deserves a longer look imo...
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Post by rivenp on Nov 5, 2018 15:42:31 GMT -5
How likely is it in this years super free agency market that after a few of the big chips have fallen that teams are reluctant to spend any more money and some decent talent might be had on a one year deal? if a guy thinks he can make more money next year? Is there anyone who fits this criteria this year or am I just living in la la land? Josh Donaldson comes to mind. anyone coming off an injury-plagued campaign would be a possible candidate...even pomeranz. off the top of my head, pollock and wilson ramos are two that jump out. andrew miller has also already been mentioned. britton qualifies as well...though he'll probably get a good enough multi-year deal.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 5, 2018 14:59:13 GMT -5
I don't know what I was looking at, but Chatham 3-5 and Shawaryn is 4-5, yet both are rated 4.5 and Chatham is rated higher. So you agree with my take that Shawaryn should have one of the higher floors, shouldn't higher floor guys be ranked above lower floor guys if their ceiling is the same? the #2 - #12 guys are all currently rated at 4.5 right now...the difference between chatham and shawaryn is only 3 spots (9 & 12), which to me means it's pretty close to a toss-up, which also probably means you're picking at nits at this point. maybe they feel like the ceiling for chatham as a potential mlb average ss is just a tad higher, say 5.2 vs 5.1 of shawaryn as a projected middle reliever or back-end rotation guy. chatham was a 2nd round pick while shawaryn was 5th, so it would make sense that he has a slightly higher ceiling.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 5, 2018 4:13:49 GMT -5
lol...that theoretical infield would lead the league in homers and strikeouts...and probably be the worst defensively in all of mlb. Someone posted the video link with the top defensive plays from the Series. Two of them were by Bogaerts and Devers, just outstanding plays with both showing off their arm strength. I notice those guys are on that list up there... even the worst defensive players show up on sportcenter top 10...that's hardly an argument for either. it was half-joking statement anyways and there's probably like a 1% chance of that infield becoming reality.
i actually think devers will be at least average at third for several years, but not sure if that will start next year (and have no idea if he'd be any good at first). xander isn't likely to get better, only worse and his range is already poor, so probably not a good idea to surround him with other below average defenders, which is the direction chavis definitely seems to be heading. dalbec has a plus plus arm going for him but that's about it...i'm more worried about his k rate because if anything holds him back, that's gonna be it.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 5, 2018 3:54:11 GMT -5
Gold Glove Winners Pos. AL NL C Salvador Perez, Royals Yadier Molina, Cardinals 1B Matt Olson, Athletics Freddie Freeman/Anthony Rizzo 2B Ian Kinsler, Red Sox DJ LeMahieu, Rockies SS Andrelton Simmons, Angels Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks 3B Matt Chapman, Athletics Nolan Arenado, Rockies LF Alex Gordon, Royals Corey Dickerson, Pirates CF Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox Ender Inciarte, Braves RF Mookie Betts, Red Sox Nick Markakis, Braves P Dallas Keuchel, Astros Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks Congrats to JBJ for his first...about time. Mookie was a shoe-in for his 3rd straight. Congrats to Kinsler too I guess...was hoping Benintendi would make it a clean sweep for the Sox outfield, but Gordon's the incumbent so gotta be much better to knock him off probably. Biggest snub?
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Post by rivenp on Nov 4, 2018 14:28:43 GMT -5
dalbec seems a lot more likely to become a chris davis rather than a giancarlo stanton...if another club values him in a trade i wouldn't hesitate to include him.
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Post by rivenp on Nov 4, 2018 3:42:01 GMT -5
Is there any chance that Dalbec could be asked to play 1b at some point next year if he continues to improve offensively? He has good fielding instincts, and he's noticeably taller than Chavis, so it seems like he would be a better 1b choice than Chavis. 2020 1B - Devers 2B - Chavis 3B - Dalbec SS - Bogaerts (extension) lol...that theoretical infield would lead the league in homers and strikeouts...and probably be the worst defensively in all of mlb.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 31, 2018 16:45:11 GMT -5
Also.... Signing Eovaldi and trading Porcello seems odd to me.... I want both. there seems to be a lot of sign eovaldi / trade porcello talk on here which i find funny...seems some believe that eovaldi will actually be better than porcello, which is certainly possible. but if you believe eovaldi will be better, than you should assume that another team would also feel that way and value him accordingly on the open market. why trade for porcello when you can just sign eovaldi for only $$$ ...it's not like porcello is some cheap cost-controlled guy.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 31, 2018 16:10:24 GMT -5
I didn't read all the posts, so sorry if this was covered: why do the Mets need/want JBJ? they don't...
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Post by rivenp on Oct 31, 2018 12:43:45 GMT -5
To be fair, he knows that everyone values him about 100 times more than he does because he has wanted to give him away for about 100 different players by now. And of course, he won't acknowledge that he OPS'ed .827 in the 2nd half of this season. Yes I do... That's why his value is high. Trade him!!! i actually have no problem with trading jbj...if it makes the team better. straight across for wheeler really doesn't move the needle. if they sign pollock or harper or someone like that then go ahead and trade jbj. hell, i'd trade benintendi if it would bring back snell.
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Post by rivenp on Oct 31, 2018 12:30:48 GMT -5
Because, HOPEFULLY, they value him like you do (and many others on this board), and think that trading for him & signig him to an extension as a core player is a smart move. you don't even know how i value him...so you're just making stuff up at this point.
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