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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2023 11:44:30 GMT -5
So it looks like:
Kavadas to AAA Wikelman and Blaze to AA Perales, Castro, Cepeda to A+
Which gives us: AAA +1 (at 28 adding one) AA +1 (at 25, -1, +2, +3 Futures Game guys) A+ -1 (at 28, -2, +3) A -3 (at 30, -3)
Any other guesses? I'm presuming Ferguson back to Greenville resolving AAA. Either Esplin back to Greenville or Donlan back to Dev List resolving AA. Drive probably put Diaz back on the Dev list if Esplin comes back.
Salem is the mystery. Simon comes off the Dev List I'm sure. Johnfrank feels like an option but they already have too many infielders and catchers - they need outfielders but there are only 5 healthy ones in the FCL as well. Maaaaaaybe Yuten up? They probably also can just ride it out waiting for draftees. And I figure LDLR slides into the rotation temporarily until, like, Duffy is ready.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2023 10:29:47 GMT -5
Nice for Kavadas, he to me has a much better short at becoming a productive MLB regular than a lot of prospects ranked ahead of him on here. Unbelievable walk rates and good power. I could see him as a very good platoon player, But let’s see how he handles AAA first. Kavadas hits nukes but he has had K rates close to 40% over 393 PA in AA. I know I shouldn't scout the box score, but with K rates that high, his terrible speed, and his defensive limitations I just can't bring myself to ever expect him to be productive in MLB. He'll be 25 in October. Yeah, best case he's Vogelbach, right? And that's best case. He walks and hits nukes but AAA pitchers are going to exploit the hell out of the hole in his swing. I have serious questions about whether he'll hit enough to get to the power. By the way, found it buried in the notes.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2023 10:25:22 GMT -5
When I asked Pearson about it, he mentioned that needed to circle up on that, which seems to indicate they didn't have any priority guys they were immediately going to pursue.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2023 5:54:50 GMT -5
While we have no idea what any of these pitchers will become over the next several years, am I correct that, at this point, there’s not a real prospect in the bunch? Not trying to disrespect any of these players, it just seems that the Red Sox put all their chips on hitters, and then drafted organizational arms to fill lower minor league rosters, with the hope that one or two of them might turn into something someday. They are really high on Duffy, it seems, in particular. And as for "is there a real prospect," let's get these guys in the system and see what happens. It's pretty clear that this point that whether it's intentional or just how their valuation works, they get their stud hitters early and trust their pitching development program to work with guys with specific traits they select later on. Just look at the 2021 draft, for example and the lack of rankings after guys people are excited about here like Dobbins, Troye, and Guerrero. Maybe they're not aces but there are only so many of those guys and they're not getting to, say, the 7th round.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2023 5:27:28 GMT -5
Speier says Kavadas is going to Worcester Makes sense, but where?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2023 18:07:35 GMT -5
Looks like Castro and Cepeda might be going up with Perales.
Feels REAL aggressive on Castro if so.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2023 9:09:24 GMT -5
Tanner Witt could be this years Noah Dean. Very curious what this means, particularly given how Dean's season has gone.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 19:08:37 GMT -5
Pretty wild to me they drafted two 6’7” 240 lbs. moose’s and neither throws gas. Not a complaint. You would just think at that size, they’d be upper 90’s. Leverage downward plain plays up. Maybe they can add the knuckleball. I wonder with the pitch clock if it'd play up? Not sure if you're joking, but the whole "downward plane" thing has been dispelled, particularly in the swing path era.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 19:06:05 GMT -5
Justin Reimer's player page has a mixed stat line: g - tb from 2022, bb - ops from 2023 I love that you caught this but not the fact that his name was misspelled.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 12:31:35 GMT -5
Why would a HS guy even consider under slot on day 1 though? Just go to school at that point. Cutter Coffey did last year. It might be underslot, but $1.7M is $1.7M. Coffey was $59k under slot, although it's more like $46,500 when you account for the tuition money. But fair point! Good pull. Very easily could've just been seeing if Washington would go over Boston's slot. And actually, your better argument was Romero, who was way under slot. Not my best here.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 12:26:22 GMT -5
The crunch created by drafting young Shortstops and premium International signings FCL 3B Johnfrank Salazar SS Marvin Alcantara SS Bryant Zayas SS Fraymi De Leon SS Freili Encarnacion In low A ball next year, this group would include Ravello already at Salem, but likely to repeat, possibly Cutter Coffey also repeating, and DSL kids who would be candidates for advancement beyond Short season ball (Cespedes and Arias) And that's assuming Romero gets to High A (a reasonable assumption) This isn't a logjam at all. Marvin and Freili are the guys there who matter. Freili is probably moving to 3B. Alcantara has been kind of disappointing. Johnfrank's situation is weird - it seemed like he stayed in FL to work on catching but he's not really catching (and reports are it's awful...). Before Freili got hurt he wasn't playing much. Zayas is splitting time with Angel Pierre at second. His best tool is probably his arm. I could see that going on a very specific direction... Fraymi wasn't even starting in the DSL - it looks to me that he got pushed up because they needed bodies. If you put Zanetello on the FCL team right now, he plays every day at SS or CF (currently manned by Kelvin Diaz mostly, with Natanael Yuten getting some time as well) and there's no issue at all, imo.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 11:33:07 GMT -5
Not sure what it means, but Reyes only played 2B during his rehab (assuming he is getting activated after the break).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 11:30:44 GMT -5
Geez, 125 pitches! Easy on the merchandise, lol. I suppose the team that currently employs him wants to win, too. Imagine that. The only thing that mitigates that usage a bit is the amount of days off Japanese pitchers have. Yeah they pitch weekly, right? Very different if you get that much time to recover.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 11:29:24 GMT -5
As we said on the pod that just dropped last night, 6-8 range with Drohan and Perales for me and Ian, at least.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2023 7:31:43 GMT -5
Pick 40 slot value 2.14 mil vs pick 50 slot value of 1.70 mil. One would conjecture about 500,000 above slot or so. I think it will be around slot. Nationals could have been offering under slot and pivoted to BPA when they got turned down. Why would a HS guy even consider under slot on day 1 though? Just go to school at that point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2023 21:51:26 GMT -5
Noble Meyer AND Thomas White damn That's why the Marlins have the best young pitching rotation in baseball. Draft 10 elite young pitchers and hope for 1 home run, 3 doubles, 2 singles, and 4ks to build an elite rotation. Red Sox need to start doing deals with the Marlins. Is it though? Their current crop includes Sanchez, Luzardo and Alcantara, who they got in trades, Cabrera and Perez who were IFAs, and Garrett, Mayer, and Rogers, who were all first-round picks. They went all pitchers in 2020 and were one of the heavy pitching teams last year but I'm not sure their current depth at or near MLB has anything to do with that, yet at least.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2023 11:34:39 GMT -5
Devers graduated in October 2017 actually. BJ in June 2018.
Chavis graduated June 2019. Darwinzon Sept. 2019.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2023 23:25:59 GMT -5
Big league contract meaning he has guaranteed money? He cleared waivers this week on a minor league deal, that doesn't make sense. When he got called up to MLB he wasn't on a minor league deal anymore. They have him for the prorated minimum now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2023 20:32:50 GMT -5
Just me or was that literally the opposite of "golfed"?
I guess the true opposite might be if he hit the pitch on the ground, but yeah, "golfed" is when it's low, right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2023 19:01:22 GMT -5
Yeah Perales is absolutely going to be in that role next year.
It's funny, because a 26-man roster makes it both easier to make a Rule 5 pick and harder to protect someone from selection.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2023 12:31:46 GMT -5
Yet still, the A's or Royals or whomever would need to keep him on the 40 throughout the offseason, no? So even if they're willing to use the space at the end of the roster on long-shot prospects, they'd have to consider Song the best of the long-shots that might be scooped up. That seems possible to me, but not probable. I think a couple factors move this from 'possible' to 'probable' for me: 1) We're not focused on one team (say, the Phillies) having to make this decision, only one of 28 other teams have to deem Song worthy of a 26-man for 90 days and a 40-man spot moving forward. Shifting the focus from 1 team in the Phillies, to just needing 1 out of 28 teams changes the probability drastically. 2) I think a number of teams tend to carry multiple players on the 40-man who are long shots to contribute in the upcoming year. So I don't know that Song needs to be the best of those 'long-shot' options. For some teams, he simply needs to be the 3rd, 4th, maybe even 5th best option...or put another way, needs to be better than their worst long-shot option. If the Red Sox for example are considering protecting maybe 3 or 4 guys from a pool of players that includes Wikelman, Perales, Bonaci, Fernandez, Blalock, Bastardo, Paulino, and company....Song is a contender in that group right? I'd push back a bit on the second point in the era of the 26-man active roster. Look at this year's Red Sox, who have 4 healthy players on the 40-man in the minor leagues right now. Extreme example, yes, but teams have to use every bit of the 40-man these days. It's very hard to keep even two guys on the 40-man who aren't going to contribute for the entire season. It was just last year when we were discussing the strain on the 40 of having both Groome and Mata who weren't options to contribute at all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 4, 2023 10:25:45 GMT -5
In case anyone is wondering the reason Salem doesn't get a home fireworks game is apparently that the Salem Fair is in the ballpark parking lot this week every year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2023 22:53:36 GMT -5
Monegro's velo down to 90-93 Working in the slider more, doesn't look like a good pitch right now More change ups, getting some whiffs on it Curveball still great The fastball was never that low. If that's what the broadcast said, it's wrong. He was 94-96 early, was more like 93-95 late.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2023 22:51:43 GMT -5
FCL has a weird schedule quirk where they won't play July 8 through July 12. I imagine Mikey Romero will head back up to Salem then (assuming he's close to ready). This schedule quirk is called the All-Star Break and every stateside affiliate is off. 😂 Sorry, had to.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 3, 2023 12:04:37 GMT -5
Again, fyi, I'm hearing that it's unlikely anyone who signed this year is going to come to the US this year. Maybe Instructs.
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