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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2022 13:33:52 GMT -5
I don't know if I posted these splits before, but it's worth noting (again).
His numbers last year are really deceptive.
On July 23 he was hitting .219 / .285 / .328 (223 PA). He had 3 HR.
In the last 8 days / 7 games of that month he homered 4 times.
He hit .285 / .325 / .523 (209 PA) starting 7/24.
And this year he's already had 246 PA and is .330 / .370 / .622 across the two levels.
A year ago he was in the midst of putting up a .613 OPS in low-A, and now he's killing it in AA.
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2022 12:43:14 GMT -5
He was tied for second in wRC+ in all of A+ for hitters 21 and under, minimum 150 PA (he had 207; if 200 is your minimum, he was tied for first).
For 23 and under in AA, minimum 30 PA, he's first; for 22 and under he's way out in front, 206 to Gunnar Henderson's 179. Not a bad start.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2022 12:22:31 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+ Pull 92 137 139 101 Straight 87 138 174 126 Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
Not sure I quite understand this. Is the conclusion:
a) He's been real lucky on opposite field fly balls? b) He has a real skill when it comes to opposite field fly balls? c) He plays in Fenway and for both his sake and the Red Sox' he must never be allowed to leave?
Perhaps all three?
As is almost always the case when a difference is this extreme, a combo of luck and skill. But you've seen the skill. That 0-2 homer off of Sewald in Seattle, where C Luis Torrens set up high and outside and flashed his glove, and Sewald executed the waste / chase pitch close to perfectly, just a little further outside than asked for, and Devers (very likely looking for that pitch) hit it out ...... that was something else. Sewald's reaction was priceless.
In terms of karma, outside pitches, hit correctly, are going to go be hit much closer to the line than pitches in the zone, and much likelier to be homers than deep fly ball outs.
So ... all of MLB is hitting .170 and slugging .387 on fly balls to the opposite field. Devers is 11 / 22 with 5 2B and 5 HR. That's a 1.409 SA. All 5 homers and 3 of the 5 doubles have been barrels (two others were bloops). Devers' Barrel % of .227 is somewhat higher than MLB's .100. The BA on oppo-field fly ball barrels is .641. Devers is 8/8, and the odds of that being random are 1 in 35. He may be lucky that he's not 7 for 8.
Devers is .154 / .231 on 13 weakly-hit balls; his expectation based on his xBA and xSA, and the league differentials, is .131 / .168. That's 0.3 extra hits and .82 extra TB. Which is to say, his luck on weakly-hit balls is that one of his cheap doubles should have been a single.
Doing the same thing for barrels and solid contact ... to begin with, Devers has 8 barrels in 9 solid-or better; the league percentage is .544.
And solid+ flyballs to the opposite field are disproportionately hit within a fielder's reach. The MLB xBA is .559; the actual is .454. For SA, it's 1.940 expected vs. 1.444 actual.
Devers' 1 merely solid contact was a 2B; he had a .460 xBA versus MLB average .342, and 1.793 xSA vs. 1.081. Much harder than the average, and no luck at all for TB.
The three barreled doubles have roughly the same xBA and xSA as all barreled doubles to the oppo; .775 vs. .733 BA, but 2.456 vs. 2.566 SA.
Now, his 5 barreled homers have a lower xBA and xSA then the league; the league is .805 / 3.018 and Devers is .707 / 2.649. But how much of that is luck, and how much a) the ability to hit outside pitches close to the line hard enough t go out of the average park, and b) the ability to knowingly take advantage of Fenway?
Of the 5 homers, the one on May 24 in Chicago was a no-doubter, 106.0, 390'. The other four, in descending order of apparent possible cheapness, are:
May 14 in Texas. 101.7, 359. May 21 vs. Sea (2nd of 2 HR, 5th inning). 102.1, 386, but a 34.0 launch angle where all the others are 26 to 28, the absolute optimum. That's tied with the one off of Sewals in Sea, which was pure skill. June 5 in Oakland. 97.7, 351.
If someone wants to hunt down the video of the three homers from 5/14, 5/21, and 6/5, that would be cool. In the meantime, I'll try to figure out how to get the "homers in X parks) number for individual homers from Statcast. (If anyone knows how, speak up!)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 15, 2022 11:24:13 GMT -5
Devers is 9th in MLB in wOBA but 24th in xwOBA. But how much of his good karma on balls in play comes from his flyball breakdown? All these numbers are relative to MLB totals, where 100=average. Fly Balls Pct xwOBA+ wOBA+ Karma+ Pull 92 137 139 101 Straight 87 138 174 126 Oppo 119 223 350 157
MLB has a .229 wOBA on fly balls hit to the opposite field. Devers is .801, nearly as good as MLB pulled (.873).
Devers is 4th in fWAR, but he and all three guys ahead if him (Judge, Goldchmidt, Machado) are all at 3.6.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 15, 2022 3:36:34 GMT -5
Peter Abraham helpfully reported that the 8-2 West Coast trip was the best since 1995, when they went 8-3. One hopes that none of his former math teachers are Globe subscribers.
They also went 8-2 in 1980, but that was after going W, L, rainout in Min, and then a travel day.
In 1977 they went 9-0 (without a travel day!) on the way to going 16-1 and and taking a 3.5 G lead over the O's on August 16. They then went 1-8 and fell to 2 games back of the Yankees (tied with the O's) and of course finished that way with 97 wins (I had forgotten--still tied with the O's -- the MFY's went 25-11 and the Sox and O's went 26-12. Crazy).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 9, 2022 4:56:56 GMT -5
Sox started 10-19 and are now 19-7 since.
Meanwhile, I've gone as far back as 1987 without finding a 1-0 CG Shutout where the sole run scored from first on an RBI single. I did find 3 games that were combo shutouts:
7/19/90 Jeff Robinson 8 IP, Det vs. Bos, 2 relievers used in the 9th. Larry Sheets knocked in Alan Trammel with 1 out in the 6th, a liner to Kevin Romine in CF. Greg Harris went all 8 innings for the Sox. Robinson threw 125 pitches.
9/24/14 Mark Buehrle, 8 IP Tor v Sea. Ryan Goins knocked in Munenori Kawasaki with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th. Buehrle had only thrown 93 pitches! Taijuan Walker went all 8 for the losers. I'll look for another last at-bat version as I go back in time.
9/26/19 Clayton Kershaw 6 IP (90 pitches) , Dodgers at Padres. 4 Pitcher shutout. Max Muncy knocked in Chris Taylor with 2 outs in the 6th.
Given that this has now happened 4 times in the equivalent of 35 years, it's inevitable that I find a CG version as I go back in time. But how far back?
I found it. 9/26/75, StL vs. Pit, bottom of the first, Lou Brock leadoff infield single, scores on Ted Simmons 2-out single, and Bob Forsch gets the CG SO.
I also found Kent Hrbek knocking in Kirby Puckett on 7/21/86, Min at Det, t 6th, but Frank Viola only went 8.
Fully half of the runners scoring in these games who are not still active are in the Hall. Good sign for Verdugo!
More seriously, half of these 6 games in the last 46+ years have taken place in the last 5 games of the season. The odds of that happening at random are 1 in 1701.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 8, 2022 9:27:23 GMT -5
Sox started 10-19 and are now 19-7 since.
Meanwhile, I've gone as far back as 1987 without finding a 1-0 CG Shutout where the sole run scored from first on an RBI single. I did find 3 games that were combo shutouts:
7/19/90 Jeff Robinson 8 IP, Det vs. Bos, 2 relievers used in the 9th. Larry Sheets knocked in Alan Trammel with 1 out in the 6th, a liner to Kevin Romine in CF. Greg Harris went all 8 innings for the Sox. Robinson threw 125 pitches.
9/24/14 Mark Buehrle, 8 IP Tor v Sea. Ryan Goins knocked in Munenori Kawasaki with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th. Buehrle had only thrown 93 pitches! Taijuan Walker went all 8 for the losers. I'll look for another last at-bat version as I go back in time.
9/26/19 Clayton Kershaw 6 IP (90 pitches) , Dodgers at Padres. 4 Pitcher shutout. Max Muncy knocked in Chris Taylor with 2 outs in the 6th.
Given that this has now happened 4 times in the equivalent of 35 years, it's inevitable that I find a CG version as I go back in time. But how far back?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2022 15:16:30 GMT -5
According to Joe and Will, Febles appeared to wait until the throw was already on its way to the plate and he judged that its trajectory was off-line before deciding to wave Doogie in (who was running on a 3-2 pitch with two outs). He's been their best 3rd base coach of my memory. not saying your wrong, but is this even possible ? The throw was coming from second. I could see him waiting to see if the cutoff was handled correctly, but (and sorry for doubting it), I don't see how this is possible. i am gonna check that play on MLB.TV. I am really interested if it went down like that. According to the Globe description, the throw missed the cutoff man; Rengifo was just backing up. Febles saw that the throw from the OF was off going to miss, so he waived him in.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2022 15:07:14 GMT -5
Of the current relievers, Diekman, Barnes, and Brasier are 2nd, 4th, and 6th in leverage, and have combined for -2.11 WPA. Numbers so far. W/60 is leverage-adjusted WPA per 60 outings. Name W/60 xwOBA John Schreiber 3.11 .229 Tanner Houck 2.47 .281 Austin Davis 1.46 .343 Tyler Danish 0.62 .318 Matt Strahm 0.13 .245 Hansel Robles 0.07 .398 Phillips Valdez -0.80 .345 Jake Diekman -1.02 .336 Matt Barnes -1.28 .363 Hirok. Sawamura -1.83 .305 Kutter Crawford -1.87 .439 Ryan Brasier -3.02 .395 Houck in higher leverage could really help.
Davis has had great clutch karma while Strahm has been the opposite, as has Sawamura.
Who had Wacha as the best starter and Schreiber as the best reliever?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2022 14:17:54 GMT -5
When was the last 1-0 CG shutout where the sole run scored from first on a single? This was the 133rd such game since 1995 (Wild Card Era), which is basically 5 per year.. The overall frequency of RBI singles with a runner on 1B is not what's relevant ... although this was just the second one this year (Urshela had one in May). Of 6959 runs that had scored this year, coming into this game, precisely 1 had scored from first on a single. Maybe 1 in 3000 runs scores this way.
How often does a single like this put a team in the lead? Over the last three seasons, there have been 8 such singles, which is 4.7 per year (162 scheduled games). That's 1 run per 4,696. Probably a very high percentage of all these hits do put a team in the lead or tie the game, when you think about it. Given the 3,088 1-0 shutouts in MLB history, this probably has happened. But there have been just 1,140 since expansion ... you probably have to go back to the deadball era when there were 51 of these a year. We've been averaging 2 a year since 2017, when they dropped off the table.
How many of those were walkoffs, where it likely would've been a double if it hadn't driven in the game-winning run? Given the high (to the point of seeming statistically unlikely) percentage of such hits giving the lead, It would make sense in that situation? Someone who is good with the Play Index could probably figure that out pretty easily. I actually think that a lot of guys end of tagging 2B when they hit a would-be double that wins the game. You make the turn and head to second in case the runner on first falls down; I think you can Apariciate the wisdom of that. Once you're close to the bag, why not claim the double?
The Play Index at Stathead does not have an RBI criterion, so you have to look at the play descriptions. About 2/3 of the runners who score from first on a single actually score on an error. That's why I only went back three three years.
They do have a walk-off criterion ... Since 2000, there have been 9 walk-off RBI singles with a runner just on 1B (plus 7 more scoring on an error), and 133 walk-off RBI doubles (plus 4 scoring on errors)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2022 0:55:35 GMT -5
When was the last 1-0 CG shutout where the sole run scored from first on a single?
This was the 133rd such game since 1995 (Wild Card Era), which is basically 5 per year..
The overall frequency of RBI singles with a runner on 1B is not what's relevant ... although this was just the second one this year (Urshela had one in May). Of 6959 runs that had scored this year, coming into this game, precisely 1 had scored from first on a single.
Maybe 1 in 3000 runs scores this way.
How often does a single like this put a team in the lead? Over the last three seasons, there have been 8 such singles, which is 4.7 per year (162 scheduled games). That's 1 run per 4,696. Probably a very high percentage of all these hits do put a team in the lead or tie the game, when you think about it.
Given the 3,088 1-0 shutouts in MLB history, this probably has happened. But there have been just 1,140 since expansion ... you probably have to go back to the deadball era when there were 51 of these a year. We've been averaging 2 a year since 2017, when they dropped off the table.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2022 12:38:04 GMT -5
Ranks among wxOBA leaders since 5/9, out of 249 players with 40+ PA:
JDM 4th Story 6th Raffy 9th Franchy 43 CV 46 Verdugo 50 Xander 80 Kiké 86 JBJ 202
That's 8 guys who have hit well enough to bat 1, 2, or 4, where you want your three best hitters.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2022 12:21:12 GMT -5
Top 5 teams in xWOBA starting May 9. Reverse order for dramatic effect:
.357 Hou .359 LAD .361 Min .362 SF
... so the leader has to be about .364, right?
.393 Bos
The gap between the Sox and #2 is larger than that between #2 and #12.
Here's wRC+:
127 StL 132 Hou 134 SF 139 LAD
... so the leader''s got to be about 143, right?
157 Bos
The gap between Sox and #2 is larger than the gap between #2 and #6.
A normal leader board for wOBA, with karma in (), adjusting for the MLB .012 difference between wOBA and xwOBA:
.388 Bos (+.007) .368 LAD (+.021) .360 SF (+.010) .347 StL (+.021) .344 Hou (-.001)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2022 1:53:09 GMT -5
Gameday tease lol. It was Plawecki batting for him Dammit!! FanGraphs had it wrong, too. When I looked at the page a second time, where they had fixed it, I thought I had somehow hallucinated it!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2022 23:53:13 GMT -5
A tale of three seasons: G W L R/G Max 9 5 4 4.67 9 20 5 15 2.65 7 15 11 4 7.47 16 The overall R/G before this stretch was 3.3.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2022 22:35:17 GMT -5
Really misleading, though.
First 15 games, 2 HR, 11 RBI.
Last 7 games, 7 HR and 21 RBI.
Blew a chance at a bigger chunk of history with that K.
Players with 7 HR and 21 RBI in a 7 game stretch:
Jim Bottomley, 1929 (8, 23) Harmon Killebrew , 1962 (7, 22) Sammy Sosa, 2002 (7, 22) Albert Belle, 2000 Edwin Encarbacion, 2015 Story
With 7 HR, 11 R, 21 RBI:
Borttomley Sosa Story
With 21 RBI, 1 SB
Lou Gehrig, 1930 (just 4 HR, though)
Story
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2022 23:35:44 GMT -5
It's rare when a team has every player score a run.
What I would like to know is: has a team ever accomplished that feat before the game was half over?
CV completed the trick by knocking in himself, with one out in the 5th.
You probably remember this one. First 11 batters scored if I'm not misreading the PBP
Almost certain I have a live scorecard in a filing cabinet!
In that game, everyone but Nomar had an RBI. In this game, everyone but Xander did.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2022 22:29:56 GMT -5
It's rare when a team has every player score a run.
What I would like to know is: has a team ever accomplished that feat before the game was half over?
CV completed the trick by knocking in himself, with one out in the 5th.
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Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2022 11:57:43 GMT -5
On May 8th (Mother's Day and my birthday!) the Sox were 25th in MLB in xwOBA, 26th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. Since then ... they lead MLB in all three categories.
Alas, yesterday's data is in Statcast at the team level but not yet the individual, so the before-and-after comparison will have to wait until later. But coming into yesterday, Arroyo (only 7 PA) was the only guy with a lower xwOBA.
Here are the numbers (Statcast only). The first three columns are before, the next three after. The last two are the karma (wOBA - xwOBA) before and after. Players are grouped as the 4 guys who were hitting well, the 1 who was average, the 4 guts who were struggling, and the 3 guys who were not semi-regulars in both phases. Within groups, they are ranked by improvement in xwOBA.
There is no significant correlation between xwOBA before and after, and you can see that each of the two main groups has guys who improved a ton (Martinez, Story) to barely (Xander, JBJ). The correlation between the before-and-after karma is r - .01. Some of that is the baseball and some of it might be player tendencies. Karma has a real componenet -- pulling the ball in the air instead of hitting it to CF. Name PA wOBA xwOBA PA wOBA xwOBA Diff K1 K2 Martinez, J.D. 91 .367 .380 49 .510 .501 .121 -.013 .009 Devers, Rafael 124 .353 .361 52 .554 .444 .083 -.008 .110 Verdugo, Alex 112 .243 .341 39 .266 .376 .035 -.098 -.110 Bogaerts, Xand. 117 .383 .344 51 .340 .351 .007 .039 -.011 Vazquez, Chri. 67 .255 .315 34 .327 .350 .035 -.060 -.023 Story, Trevor 105 .252 .287 53 .480 .520 .233 -.035 -.040 Dalbec, Bobby 89 .208 .282 31 .287 .352 .070 -.074 -.065 Hernandez, Enr. 115 .244 .284 58 .278 .327 .043 -.040 -.049 Bradley Jr., J. 92 .254 .286 38 .290 .297 .011 -.032 -.007 Cordero, Franc. 20 .233 .305 39 .352 .427 .122 -.072 -.075 Plawecki, Kevin 33 .133 .219 15 .250 .259 .040 -.086 -.009 Arroyo, Christ. 52 .248 .348 11 .193 .307 -.041 -.100 -.114 And here's just everyone in this phase, in order:
Name PA wOBA xwOBA Story, Trevor 53 .480 .520 Martinez, J.D. 49 .510 .501 Devers, Rafael 52 .554 .444 Cordero, Franc. 39 .352 .427 Verdugo, Alex 39 .266 .376 Dalbec, Bobby 31 .287 .352 Bogaerts, Xan. 51 .340 .351 Vazquez, Chri. 34 .327 .350 Hernandez, En. 58 .278 .327 Arroyo, Chris. 11 .193 .307 Bradley Jr., J. 38 .290 .297 Plawecki, Kevin 15 .250 .259 Kiké has a .351 xwOBA since May 15, and JBJ has a .409 in his last 4 G / 13 PA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2022 5:45:19 GMT -5
On May 8th (Mother's Day and my birthday!) the Sox were 25th in MLB in xwOBA, 26th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+.
Since then ... they lead MLB in all three categories.
Alas, yesterday's data is in Statcast at the team level but not yet the individual, so the before-and-after comparison will have to wait until later. But coming into yesterday, Arroyo (only 7 PA) was the only guy with a lower xwOBA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2022 16:12:43 GMT -5
Franchy had the most important play (by WPA) in yesterday's win and his triple didn't make it into MLB's highlights. (Are triples supposed to be boring or something?)
He did it again today, but I suspect he'll get some screen time now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 20, 2022 12:43:12 GMT -5
449 people have pitched in relief this year. Brasier ranks 449th in raw Win Probability Added (a/k/a "dead last").
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 20, 2022 12:29:12 GMT -5
Red Sox are up to 21st in team wRC+, at 93. Look out Cubbies and Nats, we're coming for you! (We're actually 8th in May, at 120. But the turnaround really happened May 10th against Atlanta; 6.4 runs scored per game since then.) After a stretch of 22 games where they scored 6 runs or more just once.
Third worst wRC+ in MLB as of 5/9, 3rd best since. 77 to 142.
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Post by ericmvan on May 20, 2022 1:00:25 GMT -5
insert code here Story is the first player in MLB history with 3 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI, 4 H, no outs made, and a SB. In fact, this is the greatest 3 HR, 1 SB game in MLB history.
Even without the SB, that batting line has been matched or bettered just by Joe Adcock and Shawn Green in their 4-homer games, and Anthony Rendon in 2017.
With a SB ...
Willie Stargell did it in '68 scoring only 4 runs. He's the only other guy with 3 HR, 4 R, 4 hits, 0 outs made, and 1 SB regardless of RBI total (he had 7 as well). But Stargell had rather less defensive value.
In fact, there have been only four MLB games with 3 HR, 1 SB, and 0 outs made.
Dusty Rhodes in '54 went 3/3, BB, 4 R, 7 RBI. And Jose Valentin in '98 had the same line but with just 5 RBIs'.
There are another 15 3 HR, 1 SB games but all of them had an out hitting.
This is just the 3rd 3 HR 1, SB game by a player on the defensive side of the spectrum, 2B, SS, or C. Valentin was at SS, and Barry Larkin had a 3 H, 1 BB, 3 R scored, 6 RBI game in 1991.
Without the SB, how many skill defenders have had 3 HR with 5 PA and no outs made? Just 11. Sox are the only franchise who have done it more than once, and we've done it three times: John Valentin '95 vs. Seattle with 5/5, 2B, and 3 solo homers in a 6-5 victory, and Pedey in Colorado in 2010.
Addition: Another cool one, the five skill defenders with 3 HR, no outs, and WPA of .5 or better:
.943. Travis d'Arnaud, 7/15/19, Tampa at Yamkees. Led off the game with a solo HR off of Paxton, made ir 2-0 with another in the 3rd. Walked in the 5th and 7th. Faced Chapman in the 9th, 2 on, 2 out, trailing 4-2, and went yard again.
.903 Pedey in Colarado
.757, Roy Campanella., 8/26/50, Brooklyn at Cinci. 2-run game-tying homer in the 2nd, ditto in the 4th. Walked in the 6th, 2-run tie-breaking homer (now 6-4) in the 8th.
.566, Valentin. Opened the scoring with a solo HR in the bottom of the 1st. Broke a 1-1 tie with a solo shot in the 3rd. Singled to lead off the 6th and got knocked in by Reggie Jefferson, cutting the deficit to 5-3 after Clemens had given up 4 more runs in the 5th. Solo HR leading off the 8th cuts it to 5-4. Sox tie it in the 9th on a solo HR by C Mike Macfarlane. Valentin leads off 10th with a double; they walk Mo Vaughn, but pinch-bunter Steve Rodriguez (9 PA after putting up a .618 OPS at Pawtucket) gets Valentin forced at 3B. Vaughn scores the winning run on Mike Greenwell's walk-off single. (I had completely forgotten this game, and that Macrarlane was the starting C on that team and Luis Alicea the starting ... but I did remember Tuffy Rhodes who started at CF while played just 10 games after a late-May trade, and backup C Bill Hasselman who hit for Jefferson and got hit for by Rodriguez. Very strange!)
.503, Story.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2022 12:42:57 GMT -5
Of the 121 SP with 17+ IP, Wacha ranks 7th in wOBA, but 43rd in xwOBA. I can find no evidence that the difference is other than luck. When you look at his 29 fly balls and liners, he's actually given up 3 more pulled and 2 fewer straightaway than the average starter with his number of total balls in the air. That's the opposite distribution from a guy with a wOBA / xwOBA skill.
However, the 43rd best starter in MLB is a guy who has sneaked into the #2 starters from the borderline with #3. He leads the Sox in xwOBA, as Eovaldi and Hill are at .328. So far he looks like a legit #3. To say that he's been way better than expected even if you remove the crazy results on balls in play is still an understatement.
If he keeps this up, they'll have plenty pf SP depth once Sale comes back. Houck or Pivetta likely ends up in the pen.
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