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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2022 22:14:19 GMT -5
When this thread was started, Brasier was a serious candidate to be optioned. I'm glad I waited to post!
Crawford hasn't pitched in the 7 days since his terrific outing against the Rays. They'll send him down and stretch him out as a starter.
Valdez hasn't pitched in the 6 days since he hit or walked 3 of the 4 batters he faced. He'd been excellent before that, so there's a suggestion of a physical problem. It's possible that he would have gone on the IL if they had just 13 pitchers, but if he were expected to be ready as soon as tomorrow, letting him be makes sense.
Valdez has been much better than Sawamura this year, and a bit better over the last 2 years combined ... my prediction is that they put Valdez on the IL retroactively, then option Sawamura when Valdez comes off. That avoids the weirdness of optioning him immediately after an awful appearance -- or an excellent one, if that had only happened.
Taylor was supposed to pitch both yesterday and today and did neither, so his return is not imminent.
Holland hasn't pitched well enough to exercise his opt-out.
The biggest question is who's trimmed from the 40-man when Arauz comes off the COCID list. But that's another thread!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2022 23:19:23 GMT -5
Bullpen Win Probability Added per 162 games, by acting managers: +16.06 Alex Cora (4th in MLB) -42.12 Will Venable (last by a huge margin, obviously) Updated with Cora's last three games:
+19.33 Cora -42.12 Venable
That came from 0.60 bullpen WPA in 3 games, which is 32.4 per season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 27, 2022 11:12:33 GMT -5
Bullpen Win Probability Added per 162 games, by acting managers:
+16.06 Alex Cora (4th in MLB)
-42.12 Will Venable (last by a huge margin, obviously)
Some of this is randomness / regression to the mean.
A good deal is the lack of availability of the team's best reliever, who has been moved into the rotation because one of the starters has chosen to be unavailible for the current series.
But some of this has to be the manager, right?
Raw numbers:
+1.19 in 12 G - 1.56 in 6 games
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2022 21:45:45 GMT -5
Venable has brought in 7 relievers with a Leverage Index of 2.0 or greater.
LI, Name, Results in WPA
10.74, Barnes, .251 4.24, Brasier, - .285
What kind of bullpen management involves bringing in the guy with both the worst xwOBA and WPA rate into the second biggest moment in a 5-game spread?
3.61, Danish, -.317
What kind of bullpen management involves bringing in the guy who is your COVID roster replacement and 40th guy on the 40-man into the third biggest moment in a 5-game spread?
3.16, Diekman, -.087 2.95, Robles, - .749 (Story is - .083) 2.14, Danish, .117
Same question as always, in this case, how can the 15th guy on the staff be the one guy who gets two extra-high leverage outings?
Strahm, with the team's best xERA and 2nd best WPA rate, saw a 1.80 (-.064) and 1.40 (.119).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2022 18:51:05 GMT -5
Binelas »…He’s a gold glove CFer, GG SS, he makes every play on the field look routine, and it’s like some balls that…you know… average OFer can’t even get to…you know…double in the gap…he’s camped underneath it to catch this ball…it’s such fun watching him play…” I won’t rest till he’s ranked in the Top 10 way ahead of Gilberto Jimenez 😅 He's always had that "X factor" in the way that Pedroia, Pedro, and Mookie did coming up. That supreme self-confidence and sense of eventual success, the knowledge that they *will* succeed. Used to being the underdog, the little guy, and flipping it to their advantage. He's a long way from being a superstar/HOFer, but a bunch of us saw that video of his LLWS beaning and I think we knew back then that he had that rarest of skills...the ability to frame failure as opportunity for subsequent success, and to hunt the next challenge. I like Gilberto a lot as a player, I think he's eventually an above-average CF with LD pop. But nobody in the system...and that includes Casas and Mayer...seems nearly as likely as Cedanne to reach his 95th %ile outcome. What that is I'm excited to find out, because aside from the low walk rate (and the superior defensive ability, which is saying something), he sure looks similar to Mookie development-wise so far. A while ago I did a through analysis of pitching prospects to try and determine whether it was age or years of pro experience that was the real, effective clock for ml development. It turns out it's much more the latter.
What this means is that every minor leaguer who missed 2020 should be regarded as a year younger when making comps to older players.
Mookie's and Ceddenne's birthdays are less than three weeks apart, so there's no age confound at all to deal with.
I've got some career parallel numbers that I'll post in a bit, but the thing that stands out most is that both players got their act together in low--A, on a day you can pinpoint. For Mookie, it was 5/7/13, and for Ceddenne, July 24 of last year.
C was hitting .219 / .285 / .328 in 223 PA last year, then hit .285 / .325 / .523 in 209. His BB rate went from .072 to .043, a decline of 40%, so he was definitely being more aggressive. In Mookie's breakthrough he went from a .229 to .145 in 235 PA before the promotion to A+ -- a decline of 37%.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2022 17:16:41 GMT -5
Chris Clegg in his great series of tweets says that he's more like 5'11" now then 5'8", so that comparison is, alas, no longer accurate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2022 16:28:30 GMT -5
BP did a major story on this today. The ball has more drag. Once it's up in the air, it doesn't carry like it used to. Exit velocities are not down (which would happen of the ball were less lively), it's the EV to distance relationship that has cratered. And BP actually measures this by velo out of the pitcher's hand vs. at home plate.
There's also a suggestion (too soon to tell for certain) that they are using two different balls, as they did last year. The terrible carry in Fenway may be the result of getting only the higher-drag balls while other parks got both.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2022 16:20:44 GMT -5
Numbers so far, unfair to Diekman after his first genuinely bad outing. xERA is Statcast's expected ERA (based on xwOBA). WPrt is Win Probability Added Rate, which is WPA adjusted for leverage, per 60 IP. Order is rough, essentially where guys rank in the 2 metrics.
Name xERA WPrt Hansel Robles 1.74 4.35 Matt Strahm 1.37 3.32 Matt Barnes 2.51 2.79 Phillips Valdez 2.09 2.55 Garre. Whitlock 1.82 2.20 Tyler Danish 0.45 0.00 Jake Diekman 2.91 1.01 Austin Davis 5.50 1.47 Hirok. Sawamura 4.19 -0.51
Kutter Crawford 8.30 -5.58 Ryan Brasier 9.77 -5.81 Brasier's not getting any better; his last 2 outings were his second and third worst. He's been between 93.9 and 94.1 on the FB in every game.He averaged 95.1 last year. I have to think that he's lost movement, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2022 16:12:11 GMT -5
I keep going back to that doubleheader in Toronto last season (Aug 7) when AC had Barnes pitch in both games and then brought him in the next night as well. Three games in two days and he was never the same afterwards. They went home, had an off day, and AC went right back to Barnes vs. Tampa and he gave up 4 runs in 0.2 IP. Barnes was the first pitcher to ever get a decision in four straight games (unfortunately, he was 1-3). He didn't register another save all season. Can't help but wonder if that had something to do with his continuing downfall. pitchers need confidence. It’s more important then how good there stuff is. Barnes has been lacking that. Once he gets that back i think with this defensive team we have that he will be just fine. Barnes allowed a .384 xwOBA yesterday. That sounds bad. But Franco is averaging .506! (Second in MLB). I wish there was an easy way to adjust for opposing hitter (and pitcher) strength. It's especially important early in the season, of course.
Barnes was extremely upbeat in the postgame. He feels that his other pitches are now working properly and that the FB velo is coming. He has averaged 94.1, and when he was unhittable last year (through June 5) he was 96.0.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2022 3:05:57 GMT -5
101 off the bat there [game-ender] But a .420 xBA, so an out more often than not.
There were four balls in this game with xBA > .500 that were outs -- five outs, in fact ... and all were turned by the Sox.
JBJ on Choi's liner to end the first with the easy 9-3 DP (101.1, .560) Xander on Diaz's rocket to end the 3rd (110.7, .690) Dalbec on Choi's rocket to 1B off Robles in the 8th (106.5, .620) Story on Ramirez off Diekman in the 9th to nearly start the DP (95.1, .560)
The DP that Story hit into to end the second was both harder hit (103.9) and more likely to be a hit (.430) than the game-ender.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2022 20:54:17 GMT -5
I don't think ownership is involved at all. This is just NESN's call, and all it takes is one a-hole in a position of power. The offer and and cancellation tell you everything. Someone who has worked there a while and is well positioned makes up and sends out the invite list. Their boss sees that Orsillo was invited and overrules them.
It's clear that Orsillo wanted to stay with the Sox (just as every listeners wanted, too) and somewhere in the process of that not happening, some powerful person there was "rubbed the wrong way," which was very possibly just Orsillo calling him on his profits-above-all bs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2022 12:41:57 GMT -5
FanGraphs is now more or less doing what I've been doing; they're using UZR for defense but substituting Statcast range numbers for UZR's. (I've been averaging UZR and DRS for all numbers besides Range and using Statcast for that.)
Just 12 games, but Devers is 2nd in MLB and first in the AL in 3B defense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2022 4:48:09 GMT -5
Folks mocked Bloom's pitching additions, but as of now, if Hill, Diekman, Wacha and Strahm were a law firm, you couldn't afford them.
Statcast xERAs:
1.71 Hill
1.11 Diekman
1.79 Wacha
1.83 Strahm
Seriously.
(Whitlock is 1.79, as is Valdez.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 17, 2022 16:36:59 GMT -5
Folks mocked Bloom's pitching additions, but as of now, if Hill, Diekman, Wacha and Strahm were a law firm, you couldn't afford them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 17, 2022 13:58:15 GMT -5
101 pitchers with 30 batters faced. Whitlock is 4th in xwOBA and 8th in wOBA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 11:25:03 GMT -5
Fun facts:
Sprint speed 2020:
Aaron Judge 26.8, Bobby Dalbec 26.8
Sprint speed 2021:
Aaron Judge 27.6, Bobby Dalbec 28.2.
He has the tools to play RF.
Verdugo was 27.4 - 27.5 and played RF and CF (he was 27.0 last year and it showed).
Betts healthy has been 27.9 to 28.3.
Can he learn to run good routes? If he can, he can end up in RF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 11:15:41 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season?Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. Bobby Barrels Dalbec, who was rated an ave 3rd baseman defensively and still has a cannon arm. Devers. The Sox and every other team will figure out what he's worth, and the numbers will be very similar. Some teams will offer him somewhat more than he's worth, because it will make sense for them as a less competitive team and less desirable destination, but the difference isn't going to mean jack to Devers if he wants to stay here. There's no sign at all that he has an ego problem where he relates $$$ to respect. And that's the only reason players take the highest offer rather than choose the place they want to play from among the fair offers.
Of course Dalbec is an option, which is relevant. Check out his thread for some fun facts (not about 3B).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 5:17:39 GMT -5
You cannot infer anything about the chances of extending Devers from their not extending Betts. What they did with Betts is actually off-topic here.
1) Betts never expressed an interest in an extension and IIRC never said anything about wanting to play in Boston the rest of his career. Devers has expressed a strong interest in both of these things. And a hometown discount is a real thing. Guys take less money to stay in a situation that they want to stay in. I mean, duh.
2) There's still a huge uncertainty about Devers' future value. I've said from the very beginning that he has Gold-Glove finalist tools, and in the massive sample size of 6 games this year he's been the best defensive 3B in MLB. His track record is ... somewhat less good. The Sox are not going to be able to extend him now with a projection based on his past defense, nor would they pay him now on a projection based on his defensive ceiling. It would make sense for the Sox to split the difference, but if I'm Devers I turn that down and bet on outperforming that assumption. If they had reached an agreement this past winter, someone would have screwed up.
3) They are not very comparable as players. Betts arrived as a largely polished hitter, and put up a 140 wRC+ from ages 23 to 25 and has been 134 since. That's not a good sign, long-term. Devers' strike zone command is still a work in progress, and yet he edged Betts in oWAR / 650 PA in ages 22 to 24, 4.7 to 4.5, despite not having an opportunity to play the remainder of his age 23 season once he got it going. Betts has had much more value in defense, and that's already faded: StatCast Runs Above Average (on balls in play) from age 23 (start of Statcast) being 14, 17, 11, 5, 5, -2 (but nursing injuries). Note that the Dodgers signed him to the extension after the first 5 year, and any projections system would have had him better than he's been.
4) Does anyone disagree that Betts and McCutchen are similar players (Betts even better, of course)? You can see the possibility that the Sox foresaw the possibility of a steep decline (McCutchen going overnight from 6 to 2 WAR per 650) and were simply uninterested in the sort of contract they knew he could get.
5) I did say here that I would trade Betts even-up for Verdugo, but the D's would never do that. Well, they did, and as I pointed out a few days ago, when you factor in clutch hitting and make the best possible assessment of defense, Verdugo has had 1.2 WAR more than Betts since the trade. So the whole narrative that they screwed this up once and will screw it up again is likely to be ass-backwards.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 4:22:04 GMT -5
If the tea leaves are saying both Raffy and Xander want top of the market money and the Sox don't want to go there then is Bobby the 3rd base insurance? Just like Story is at SS. Losing both those guys would really hurt but can you imagine the quality of prospects the Sox could have over the next few years by trading both. They could hypothetically have the best group of 20-22 yr olds by a strong margin. It would hurt but it could set the Sox up for a ten yr run, then again signing them could do the same thing. I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered. It's just 6 games, but Devers has been tremendous at 3B this year. StatCast has him as 15th in MLB in Runs Above Average, on a pace for +29 R / 150, and that's not counting his catching a runner off 1B on a foul popup, which took both being very heads-up and a rocket arm.
The team, BTW, ranks 3rd of 4th in defense so far.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:49:48 GMT -5
And bullpen Leverage Index. Jake Diekman 3.18 Hansel Robles 2.79 Ryan Brasier 2.39 Garre Whitlock 1.76 Kutter Crawford 1.36 Matt Strahm 1.01 Matt Barnes 0.90 Austin Davis 0.89 Hirok Sawamura 0.31 Phillips Valdez 0.19 Brasier vs. Samwmura is mysterious.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:42:20 GMT -5
Sox pitching Statcast numbers going into the home opener. No one's been mediocre or just OK. And the rotation is upside down! Opponents faced seems to be a factor there.
Name PA woBA xwOBA Sawamura, Hiro 4 .000 .175 Strahm, Matt 8 .087 .200 Barnes, Matt 7 .183 .213 Hill, Rich 19 .333 .227 Valdez, Philli 6 .213 .228 Diekman, Jake 9 .261 .237 Whitlock, Garr 22 .168 .247 Robles, Hansel 12 .164 .290 Wacha, Michael 18 .215 .302 Eovaldi, Nathan 43 .349 .365 Crawford, Kutt 16 .538 .470 Houck, Tanner 19 .450 .492 Davis, Austin 12 .532 .536 Brasier, Ryan 7 .557 .600 Pivetta, Nick 23 .352 .604 I already had Valdez, Crawford (to be stretched out as a starter), and Brasier (option left, velocity down) pegged as guys to be trimmed on May 1 and/or to make room for Taylor, and Davis is a guy who could be traded, e.g., to make room for Holland.
Coolest thing here is that Whitlock has the PA of a starter. There are just 91 pitchers who have faced 20 batters, and Whitlock is 16th in xwOBA and 10th in wOBA. His xwOBA = above average #2 starter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2022 11:27:12 GMT -5
Maybe ERod is cursed? Is that the genius of letting him go? He will just always have bad D, bad BABIP etc? Yes, E-Rod is cursed and maybe when there are errors he gets rattled and then he looses concentration and implodes. How many Alex Cora quotes can you find about his needing to help E-Rod get motivated?
Compare to like quotes (from anyone, ever) about Pedroia ... or Story.
I don't think that players who sign big contracts and slack off do so consciously. I think it's a subconscious thing. But there's nothing more important in dealing with free agents then making the assessment: will a big contract unconsciously de-motivate this guy, or not?
Past Sox GM's have been very bad at this, and I don't think you need any examples (except that this was the mistake with Lugo, too). Bloom seems to really get it ... based on this SSS of two guys, admittedly. But it's really stark.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 13, 2022 3:25:01 GMT -5
I’ll stick with you on this and hope for the best. I’m already alarmed that JBJ has only had 1 season since 2016 that was above replacement level, and that was the short COVID season of 2020. I mean that’s true if you completely ignore the strongest part of his game. I can assure you Jackie has not been “below replacement level” every year but one since 2016. In fact, as I believe I mentioned already, in his last three Red Sox seasons he averaged 3.3 WAR per 650 PA.
I've already explained why there's reason to believe that his last season isn't predictive at all (new coaches who are clueless about fixing him when he's slumping).
In the 790 PA that I believe are predictive (2019, 2020, 2022 so far) he has a 97 wRC+, with .321 wOBA and .315 xwOBA.
If I'm not mistaken, 2018 is more recent than 2016, and he finished that year with 50 postseason PA where he put up a .363 wOBA and .379 xwOBA, against superior pitching.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 12, 2022 19:17:22 GMT -5
You might as well be describing Dalbec. How about we're patient with both of them? What is it, one week into the season? And Dalbec went into this game with a .398 wOBA and .390 xwOBA, both 3rd on the team to Verdugo and Devers. The team as a whole was .248, .310, and some of that had to be tougher-than-average Yankee pitching.
Xander came in .317, .262.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 12, 2022 12:26:15 GMT -5
Binelas appears to be the only truly promising get in the combined Benny/Renfroe deal. I think it is fair to be critical of a series of moves that have demonstrably weakened the team — there is *no* arguing our OF is better — while creating long odds on future improvement. A few of those additions are already working their way down the prospect rankings. Will there likely come a day when we say “it was worth fielding a bad OF to have Grant Gambrell on this squad”? Benintendi needed a change of scenery. That deal made some sense since he just looked lost here. Renfroe was a completely different story, though. He had(arguably) his best season last year and really looked comfortable in Boston. He fit the team well and looked to be on an upward trajectory. I’ll never understand that deal to acquire the worst player in MLB from 2021. Even if they got a decent prospect in the deal it still leaves them with a gaping hole in the OF on the Major League roster. I am a big believer in Bloom, but I hated that trade on day 1(and still do). They got Renfroe with the idea of revamping his swing and/or approach to make him a better hitter. The idea was to improve his ability to go the other way vs. RHP enough that they couldn't just go after him there continually.
Sometimes when a hitter makes that sort of adjustment, the league can adjust back.It usually involves figuring out a new cold zone where he can be worked.
Renfroe's season:
.217 / .257 / .362 (148 PA) to May 25 .290 / .351 / .583 (342 PA) to Sept. 8 .211 / .268 / .421 (82 PA) to end of season .194 / .326 / .250 (43 PA) post-season
Normally you'd just call the last 125 PA a slump. But as soon as they traded him I said that they were selling high on a guy that they thought couldn't replicate that success, because the apparent slump was a counter-adjustment. Renfore can of course make his own adjustment, but it's npt going to result in the line in red.
Meanwhile, JBJ is a famously streaky hitter and slow starter, and it seems as if his new team had no clue as to how to turn his season around, either mechanically and/or psychologically. I've already predicted that he'll have more WAR than Renfroe this year.
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