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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 11, 2022 23:19:07 GMT -5
Is Brasier 3 for 3 in giving up inherited runners this year? 93 MPH Brasier is not big league quality Sox bullpen has a .28 Win Probability Added, which on a per-game basis would have led MLB last year (Dodgers were .255 per 4 games). And they've done that while going 1-3!
How have they managed that?
Brasier is -.38 and everyone else combined is 0.66.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 10, 2022 23:02:49 GMT -5
First time in Diekman's career that he faced three batters in the 9th and fanned them all. Did it a handful of times in the 8th.
And not only did he fan those three batters, the MFY's were having a crazy good night with the bases empty -- 5/7, 3 BB, 2B. Here's xBA and EV:
K BB .910 (Hicks, 83.6) BB .560 (K-F, 103.4, 2B) .330 (Stanton, 116.8, 1B) .230 (Trevino, 100.7, 63) .830 (Donaldson, 98.7) .840 (Stanton, 115.2 barrel) BB --- .670 xOBP, 5 hard-hit balls in 7 AB
In contrast, their last 10 PA with men on (after Torres' 2B off of Crawford in the 5th) were all outs:
Crawford
0 (foul out)
K K K Strahm
.450 (Gallo, 97.9)
.120 .140 Robles .340 .560 (Donaldson, 103.3)
.010 ---- xOBP .162, 2/10 for hard-hit balls
One could hardly have designed a game to be more frustrating for Yankee fans. But this just made up for the cheap homers in the opener.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 10, 2022 13:34:37 GMT -5
Where do you get that? They played all their regulars against the Pistons. They seem to want the 2, because it gives them home court in round 2 if they advance. Whereas the 3 seed needs 1 or 2 to lose to get home court. The team with the most at stake today is actually the Cavs. The other play-in teams all have easy games. If the Cavs lose to the Bucks and the Nets, Hawks and Hornets win as expected, the Cavs go from 2nd in the play-in to 4th, because they lose the tiebreaker; the Hawks, who went 3-1 against them, become the 2. So instead of needing to beat the winner of Hornets / Hawks while at home to get the 8 seed (and having a shot at 7 by upsetting the Nets), they need to beat the Hornets and then the loser of Nets / Hawks, both on the road.
It's an open question as whether home court in round 2 is more valuable than avoiding the Nets (factoring in the chance that it might be the Hawks or Cavs instead) in round 1. I agree that there's no way that 4 is better than 2.
Well maybe framing it as tanking is the wrong word, but they're at least definitively resting their guys on a back-to-back. Here's the NBA official injury report. I'm with you - just full steam ahead for the 2 seed by trying to win today and seal homecourt for much of the playoffs. The B2B was actually us and the Pistons, then they had yesterday off. But it now appears as if they played everyone against us on Thursday because they needed a win either then or today to avoid 4. So it does seem that they decided that 3 was better than 2.
Why tank the last game instead of Thursday, when the 2-day longer layoff they chose might lead to rust? Let's see ... if they did that, we have an extra win, we have no fear of finishing 4, and we can rest guys selectively today and winning or losing is moot.
So ... they're handing the Cavs the shot to go to Brooklyn in the first play-in game. The winner of that game faces us (if things today go as expected), and the loser has home court against Hornets / Hawks winner and that winner faces the Heat. Heat have been killing it since their late-March losing streak, so the incentive to win game 1 and clinch a spot is strong. So the hoped-for irony is that the Cavs upset the Nets and play us, and the Bucks have to play the Nets and (if they win) don't have home court against us.
Obviously the Cavs would have little or no chance against the Nets in a 7-game series, but in a single game anything can happen. And if they're behind late, knowing they have home court again for another shot could be a dis-incentive, even if unconscious.
How silly is it that a single game between 7 and 8 becomes this important?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 10, 2022 7:41:50 GMT -5
In my opinion its not even that the Raptors are a horrible matchup, but they also just are annoying as hell to play against and physical, plus as we see from net ratings above playing their best basketball of the season right now. Its really important that the Bucks play their last two games before we play Memphis, which gives us control over the situation. I still think Chicago is the ideal scenario, but honestly I would take the Nets too with homecourt round 2 over falling to playing the Raptors. The good news is Memphis doesn't have much to play for so shouldn't play their guys more than 25 mins or so. Though they are probably wanting revenge for Boston, they also are not going to risk injury on a back to back. Edit: looks like Bucks are tanking tomorrow to try to get the Bulls so a choice between 2&4. Unfortunate..Where do you get that? They played all their regulars against the Pistons. They seem to want the 2, because it gives them home court in round 2 if they advance. Whereas the 3 seed needs 1 or 2 to lose to get home court.
The team with the most at stake today is actually the Cavs. The other play-in teams all have easy games. If the Cavs lose to the Bucks and the Nets, Hawks and Hornets win as expected, the Cavs go from 2nd in the play-in to 4th, because they lose the tiebreaker; the Hawks, who went 3-1 against them, become the 2. So instead of needing to beat the winner of Hornets / Hawks while at home to get the 8 seed (and having a shot at 7 by upsetting the Nets), they need to beat the Hornets and then the loser of Nets / Hawks, both on the road.
It's an open question as whether home court in round 2 is more valuable than avoiding the Nets (factoring in the chance that it might be the Hawks or Cavs instead) in round 1. I agree that there's no way that 4 is better than 2.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 7, 2022 11:36:40 GMT -5
Personally, I really don't like DFAing Bazardo instead of Danish. Bazardo is going to be claimed. I'd much rather lose Danish although clearly the team sees something in him that they value more than Bazardo. Wow, I don't get it. I thought Bazardo was the AAA guy most likely to be effective in Boston. Disappointed that they're DFAing him instead of Danish or Garza (or did they already DFA Garza?) Really disagree with this move. Can folks check to see whether an embedded tweet is readable, and add the missing info if it isn't?
The actual roster moves were Shaw and Robles selected, Danish optioned, Bazardo and Garza DFA'd.
Guessing that Bazardo is not 100% physically, and that both pitchers will clear waivers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 6, 2022 13:09:02 GMT -5
Yeah, and similarly, I'm not sure the team needs a backup CF with JBJ on the roster. Don't love that Arroyo or Verdugo is in RF at Fenway against lefties, but ideally Arroyo makes up for that by raking. If JBJ hits like he did last season, then literally any major league hitter would be an upgrade. But... I'm just not sold that Arroyo has that much "raking" in him. He has a career xwOBA under .300, with no upward trend at all. His career wRC+ is 88. If JBJ can manage a wRC+ of like 65 against lefties (he's at 81 for his career) I'd much rather have that plus his defense in Fenway's RF than Arroyo's only slightly better hitting while playing a difficult position for the first time. Basically, I'd just use Arroyo in RF on the road against lefties, and to give JBJ a break when he's in one of his cold stretches.
Granted, these are small sample sizes, but here's his xWOBA versus LHP: .290 (52 PA) .294 (30) .281 (28) .213 (19) .335 (74) Batted ball profiles. League in 2021 (all RHB vs. all LHP) Arroyo before 2021 Arroyo 2021 Pct. of batted balls, then xwOBA
Pull 38.4%, .432
33.3%, .409 28.3%, .563 Straightaway 36.9%, .399
43.7%, .352 43.4%, .427
Oppo 24.7%, .293 23.0%, .323 28.3%, .274
He was completely neutral in batted ball direction, versus the league 55.5% more Pull than Oppo, and that makes him harder to defend against. So some of his wOBA - xwOBA will be for real.
He reduced his K rate from .279 to.233, closer to league average of .220. He still doesn't walk much (including HBP), .047 to .041 versus league .093.
Note that he struggled in 2020 and then was much better in 2021, a similar pattern to Kiké last year as they were revamping his swing and/or approach. And they platooned him in 2021 despite a big reverse split previously, so this appears to be a hoped-for result.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 6, 2022 4:34:07 GMT -5
He's been in minor league camp since they acquired him and is with the WooSox. Even if that wasn't made clear by the team, that should be in transactions, then. I take that as inerrant and have used it a lot in the past!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 6, 2022 4:29:00 GMT -5
Jake marisnick anyone? Good glove that can play all 3 OF spots decent ops vs lefties (.743) Just released by the Rangers, or maybe had an opt-out and used it after told he wouldn't make the team.
Marisnick had a 96 wRC+ vs. LHP last year, 100 his last 3, 93 for his career.
Arroyo is 136, 102, 88. He turns 27 at the end of May while Marisnick just turned 31.
Marisnick is still a terrific defender in CF; he hasn't played much RF recently and has below-average numbers for arm.
Right now I like Arroyo somewhat better as the platoon partner in RF, and an upgrade of Arauz would make more sense for several reasons. But it's not a bad idea.
Edit: I think it's likely that there isn't a backup SS type that you could get for free and who would be of more value than Marisnick, and adding Marisnick also allows Arauz to play every day in AAA instead of very rarely in MLB. Marisnick's roles would be RF vs. LHP when Arroyo is needed in the INF, occasional starts in the OF instead of Arroyo when the matchups say he's better, occasional starts in LF for Verdugo against LHP who are brutal on LHB, and pinch-runner, plus insurance against Arroyo not being up to handling RF (especially in Fenway) after all.
I've always liked him, BTW. He'd just fill Duran's roster spot until he's ready.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2022 13:15:34 GMT -5
I would say O'Brien is more knowledgeable and prepared than Orsillo ever was. Orsillo, on the other hand, was more entertaining when paired with Remy. O'Brien has never really had the chance to build up the same kind of rapport with a color analyst, it's been kind of musical chairs every since he came on. That's largely because they were (rightly) accommodating Remy's sickness. But that's not the situation anymore, and instead of running through like twelve ex-players for like 14 games a year, they should find one young-ish guy and stick with him, they way they did with Remy 35 years ago. And, of course, have Eck on as the third man whenever he wants. Orsillo was great. There are many, many ways to get more analytical views of the game while it's going on. Orsillo engaged regular fans in a way that very few people could. I understand he wasn't everyone's cup of tea, but there's a reason folks got so attached to him. It was very, very foolish to let him go. I'm a big fan of Lenny DiNardo, but he's probably not colorful enough to follow Remy or avoid being overshadowed by Eck. These are huge shoes to fill or match.
(I also have some bias for a guy who had the Pixies' "Where is My Mind" as his entrance music, and that I hung out with a bit at a Pixies / Mission of Burma Show in Lowell ...)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2022 13:06:03 GMT -5
Yeah and the big difference with Xander/Devers and Mookie is that they have shown they want to be here while Mookie was always lukewarm "Lukewarm" is being generous. I think Mookie loves being in a city where the seats aren't filled until the third inning and the media treat the players like Hollywood stars. He was never staying in Boston, even if they outbid everyone by 10%.
I can't think of two other players in the game who I could root for more as people than Xander and Raffy.
Stop with the off-topic, old-news Mookie stuff or I'll be forced to point out that when you adjust hitting for clutch, by using Win Probability Added instead of offensive Wins Above Average, and substitute the more accurate Statcast Runs Saved on Plays Made on defense for what b-Ref uses, Alex Verdugo has 5.6 WAR since the trade and Mookie has 4.8. I don't want to post that because it's not predictive and people might get the wrong idea.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 23:53:54 GMT -5
I moved some Trevor Story discussion to that thread. If you want to discuss a subject and there isn't a thread on it, feel free to start one, don't just post it in an off-topic thread. So now where should I look for Eric's summary of 3 months' worth of thinking? I couldn't remember where I put it myself and just spent too much time hunting it down to see what I wrote about Darwinzon ... turns out it's in the "Do You Want Story?" thread, which was of course rendered pointless to check out within the next 24 hours. What I actually said there: "It seems to me that Dawinzon is going back to AAA until he gets his act together." The long, disappeared version explained that this was clear from their signing two lefty relievers and his having an option.
It also had them stretching him out as a long man and pitching on a regular turn, as the best way for him to get his act together. (I actually looked at his pitch mix to see if they were maybe thinking of him as a starter again, but that clearly wasn't their intent.) That's exactly what they're doing, and you have to think that Whitlock's success in that role was a factor.
His upside in that role goes without saying.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 23:17:53 GMT -5
Shaw will get added and probably Garza DFA the day before the season to try and maximize the chances Garza clears. Danish probably DFA when Robles is ready. Agree with both of those, although May 1, when they have to trim two pitchers and also decided on Holland, is going to be interesting, especially if Taylor is already back (no pun intended, but it's pretty good) or expected soon. I may start a thread on that.
As far as I can tell, Garza's still in camp, ditto Robles, who pitched the 7th today against the Twins (1 1 0 0 1 2).
Chris, do you know the reason why Garza is still in camp, if he's not in their MLB plans?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 11:49:05 GMT -5
So it looks like: Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Wacha, Hill Barnes, Brasier, Diekman, Straham, Sawamura, Whitlock, Crawford, Valdez, Garza, Schreiber (assuming Robles isn't ready) Vazquez, Plawecki Dalbec, Story, Bogaerts, Devers, Shaw, Arroyo Verdugo, Hernandez, Bradley, Martinez, Cordero (or perhaps Upton or another RH OF?) Davis and Arauz, not Schreiber and Cordero.
And as I ran down above, a chance they acquire a SS / util who can hit lefties a little. There's no role for an OFer if Arroyo can play there.
Incidentally, the tweet here is not appearing at all if you don't have a Twitter account. And occasionally Tweets do appear but only partially. Always a good idea to summarize it in text.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 2:49:53 GMT -5
BTW, this poll was pretty much meaningless because Crawford was listed neither as a lock or a candidate, and nobody caught that except the rookie Yaz1971. So almost everyone's math was off by one.
There are still 5 roster spots that aren't certain (Davis should have been a lock instead of Darwinzon, but that evens out), 3 pitchers and 2 position players. The candidates are:
Crawford Valdez Garza Schreiber * Danish *
Acquisition
Shaw *
Arauz Refsnyder * Cordero *
Acquisition
That plus Robles (who won't be ready) gives you the 33 guys still in camp.
I think Crawford, Valdez, and Shaw are nearly certain.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2022 0:04:57 GMT -5
An writer today posits Arroyo as being the 3rd outfielder. He has played five spring games in RF and started three of those. He's the right-handed bat and a "great athlete", according to outfield coach Venable. He could very well put Refsnyder on the bubble and lead to another infield utility guy for the final roster. “He’s taken to it really well,” Red Sox bench coach and outfield instructor Will Venable said here Saturday. “His attitude about it has been great. When we first mentioned it to him, he jumped at the opportunity and he has come to me every day wanting to do early work. He’s really responded to his training. He looks great. He’s a great athlete. We talk about doing the same things that he does to get ready for the pitch in the outfield as he does in the infield. ... He’s an athlete and he’s going to figure it out. “I think he looks great,” Venable added. “The way he’s moving, it’s been nice to see.” Arroyo succeeding in the outfield would solve a big area of need for the Red Sox. Boston needs a right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with left-handed hitting Jackie Bradley Jr. Arroyo had a .356 on-base percentage, .529 slugging percentage and .885 OPS in 74 plate appearances against lefties last season. This is really quite interesting and encouraging. He may well be a better option against LHP than anyone we could credibly pick up. More on this in the "last 5 roster spots" thread.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 3, 2022 23:51:30 GMT -5
Doesn't seem like Shaw would've been told he's "trending towards making the team" if they had a Hosmer or Myers trade lined up or at least as a decent possibility. I'll keep hoping though I took that to mean that they were working on clearing a 40-man spot.
Which also tells you that guys not on the 40-man at present are less likely to make the team.
Re the 15th pitcher, that guy is ... the 15th pitcher. Not only does he almost never pitch in high leverage, he gets sent down on April 30. So it's very likely to be either Garza or someone just like him (options left) that they like even better. I think the odds of such a swap are solid, since it's very easy to pass guys through waivers at the moment teams are finalizing their rosters.
The last position player is more interesting, because right now it looks like Arroyo may well be filling two different bench spots, 4th OFer / JBJ platoon partner, and 4th (backup) skill infielder. I love that idea and the thought that Arroyo is Brockstar V2.0.
If this is the case, then the last guy on the bench only gets into games when you need Arroyo for both his roles simultaneously.
The easiest thing to do is just keep Arauz, who can start at 3B against super-tough LHP, and at 2B, SS, and 3B when someone needs a day off against a LHP and Arroyo is busy playing RF. You could of course see them picking up a guy as good or better who fits that description, allowing Arauz to continue to play everyday in AAA. That would be the best solution, especially if the guy were a wizard SS defender, allowing you to rest Xander optimally (GB pitcher on the mound, GB-hitting team). Options left would be ... optional.
And that's because this guy is very likely a placeholder for Duran, just as Shaw is one for Casas. And when Casas comes up, that moves Dalbec into the OF picture, so picking up an OFer for the last spot instead of filling it with an extra skill infielder seems unlikely. If they do grab someone, it will be someone with options left that they really like.
So ... be on the lookout for a guy whose inability to hit RHP has kept him out of a starting SS job and relegated him to a backup, there and at 3B and 2B.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2022 16:51:27 GMT -5
Chris et all on Twitter are trying to nail it down, but it seems that Garza has been overlooked.
They have Pitchers (5 spots): Crawford, Danish, Robles Schreiber, Valdez, Davis, Sawamura. Add Garza.
Crawford, Davis, Valdez, Sawamura, and Garza are all on the 40-man, so that's the best guess. Robles was not sent down like Holland, so he has a chance if he can get ready in time, with Garza being the trim. Danish and Schreiber would seem to be sticking around as the best NRI's in case there are further injuries.
They still need to DFA someone to make room for Shaw (also not sent down, so presumably being added) and maybe for Robles, and for Refsnyder, Cordero, or a player acquired. Garza and Renaldo seem like the only fungible guys. Arauz as a bench piece seems of little use.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2022 15:02:21 GMT -5
I noted earlier that their rosters choices indicated that they were very high on him.
We here are aware of his impressive history of making adjustments, but most of the world is unaware of that.
And because he's a great big dude who hits the ball a mile, folks have always underestimated his athleticism.
Aaron Judge is a comp here. He's obviously not Aaron Judge, but he's closer to Judge than he is to the "Bobby Dalbec" that exists in most people's minds.
(I'll be in and out of the board today until the three opt-outs get resolved. After that, back to being overwhelmed by real life, maybe until opening day.)
(I do have a pretty thorough Pedey-is-aHOFer argument that I'll post if I can get myself to being merely whelmed.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2022 2:49:39 GMT -5
Bradley doesn't actually have a huge L/R split; 81 wRC+ vs. lefties and 89 vs. righties for his career. I don't think it needs to be a strict platoon approach with him. And maybe you'd try to keep him in the lineup more in Fenway to play RF than in some stadiums on the road. Last time I broke it down he had no split at all when on a hot streak and at home, and a big split when slumping and on the road, and a split like the one you cite when hot on the road or cold at home. If seems likely that there will be points in the season where you'd really want to platoon him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2022 15:28:47 GMT -5
Kind of love that this thread is a thing. Hey, we could do apples, too.
I've had one Cosmic, and it was both the sweetest and crispest apple I've had, and one of the juiciest.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2022 15:22:32 GMT -5
That cascade of events really should be written up. I would bet an appropriate, well published MD/PhD clinical type would jump at the chance to be lead author in some medical journal. That’s how the system works, and is actually pretty efficient in getting out the latest info. I wish I had done it with my own career. I am sorry for all your pains and troubles. Neuropathy is both painful and bothersome. You may be happy to hear that my oldest daughter in law learned, from neuropathy, that she has MS, a terrible disease. That was 20+ years ago. She was a jogger who, with good meds, kept on jogging… marathons. She has done two a year since, and her docs say “whatever you are doing keep doing it.” Her last round of meds was debilitating so she stopped running prior to this CoVid plague. But she turned to trail hiking with a couple of friends and has maintained herself in such good shape and remarkable spirits that she will resume marathons next month. I guess we get to the point where we not only learn to live with stuff, we learn to thrive with it, as you have done. Bravo. Hang in there. I do know that smell is about 70% of taste, and that olfactometers, which are used by perfumers and scent makers, can be used to verify claims on wine bottles (leather, cassis, grass, old Sox, etc.) and that if you smell cherries in a wine, the equipment unerringly prints out cherries, among other things. (Wine is probably the only natural beverage that actually mimics other smells and tastes). I imagine this equipment could also identify various citrus fruit and I will research that. Oranges actually do have different smells and tastes, depending on things like ripeness, harvest times, regions, even from tree to tree, and can alter a bit in the bottle or box. Even for Tropicana and minute maid who harvest, clean, juice and bottle in such bulk that homogeneity would be expected. But no system is perfect. I am fascinated that you went back to college at 44. I have no idea how old you are but have to ask are you finished? Psychology! I spent more than 20 years working with clinical psychologists in medical centers. What a good and interesting group. It seems that despite your unique set of medical issues you have crafted a wonderful, multi terraced lifestyle. The amazing taste of citrus pales in comparison. Stay safe. And thank you for your insights on the Red Sox. You are a good teacher. I had forgotten this thread existed, and forgotten I had a great set of reasons to try sumos again!
But the best discovery is that I wrote that I could only do a half of a bottle of medium salsa in a sitting. I'm back to a full one, and I may give Hot a shot. That indicates brain chemical levels returning to original levels.
Meanwhile, did anyone else encounter terribly bitter, evil-smelling citrus this winter? It's a real thing; it has to do with heat or rough handling triggering a specific chemical to change from tasteless to bitter, and my housemates had the same reaction I did. Presumably this was a COVID thing from shipping problems.
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I went back to school a while ago. I'll be 68 this May. I've got so much unfinished stuff it's silly. Three books with substantial chunks of text and crazy amounts of notes. Current priority is in reverse order of inception. Composing the Hobbit: A Literary Detective Story, which I started in earnest two years ago, should blow the minds of the hardcore Tolkien fans, and I'm aiming at a book that will be accessible and very interesting to anyone who is a fan of the books at all ... which is a very large audience. (If anyone is into that, I can give an explanation of what I'm up to here). Then I need about two years of solid work to finish Mind Being Matter, my book on consciousness and free will that I started in 2010 but in other forms dates back to 1998. And then there's a huge fantasy novel, Imaginary, which started out as a short story in 1989, turned into a novel in 2003 and is currently the first 2 chapters plus a 75,000 word outline (just all the events, blow-by-blow, but with dialogue for all the key scenes). The outline is about 90% complete, but there's also a lot of research that needs to be done. I read the chapters at a science-fiction convention (drawing a decent audience because my talks about the brain were seriously popular) and got a great response.
There's so much other unfinished stuff I want to get done at some point ... and a huge amount of day-to-day stuff I have to do myself. The point of doing the Hobbit book first is to try to make enough money to hire someone to cook, clean, and pay the bills!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2022 13:38:21 GMT -5
Two tweaks: first, I'd swap JBJ into starter and Acquisition into bench. There's no free agent left better than JBJ (not remotely close) and once Casas arrives there's a good chance that Dalbec will become JBJ's platoon option, playing LF. They won't trade for someone better than JBJ because of Duran and Dalbec as future OF candidates.
Second: giving that the already need to add Story, Shaw, and the OF Acquisition to the 40-man, I don't think there's any chance that they select Robles or Holland as the 14th and 15th pitchers for the brief length of time that rosters are expanded.
I like the idea of listing an extra pitcher (since someone usually gets hurt) but this time I think you can just list 15, so I'd trim those two and add Seabold or someone else on the 40-man.
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 20, 2022 15:44:14 GMT -5
Certainly mentioned already, but my favorite bonus thing:
Story was furious that the Rockies didn't trade him to a contender at last year's deadline, and signed here for less money than they offered him.
I kind of think he was always coming here. First, he had to wrap his head around moving to 2B. And then it just took time to settle on a price.
BTW, the team and Bogaerts both talk as if they expect him to be much better defensively this year. There could be a lot of reasons for that, so I won't speculate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 20, 2022 15:32:40 GMT -5
JBJ averaged 3.3 WAR / 650 PA his last three years in a Red Sox uni, at ages 28 to 30. (If you weight it by years like a Marcel projection, it's actually higher.)
He's always been a super-streaky guy. An interesting Q: what would happen if he went to a team that literally had less than zero understanding of how to deal with his slumps, both mechanically and psychologically? Well, we think we know, right? We know for a fact that he started ice cold (as is almost always the case) and, unlike every other year, never got it going. So the above is an obvious explanation.
We once traded for a guy who was coming off a -0.1 WAR year after averaging 3.4 WAR / 650 (3.3 actual) in his age 28 to 30 seasons. He put up a 4.2 / 650 (4.1 actual) in the 2 remaining years of his contract, capping it off with a WS MVP.
For some reason I think that replacing JBJ with a guy less good is a bad idea.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 20, 2022 3:25:26 GMT -5
One thing I've resisted doing this off-season is my own assessments of players, at least for candidates. So I'll be thrilled if they decide to sign Story. My guess is that their interest is real.
I think it was always the case that they wanted to upgrade either RF or 2B with the extra RHB they've talked about, and hence either put JBJ into a 2B platoon with Arroyo (via Kiké swapping positions) or Arroyo into the backup skill INF role, where he'd be one of the best in the game. And Story is the only guy left standing.
If that doesn't happen, they could sign Jed Lowrie (probably as an NRI to begin with) and use him at 2B against a fair share of RHP. I did look at his numbers before the lockout and he can still hit RHP and play an OK 2B.
But Story gives you this lineup:
Kiké Bogaerts or Devers JDM Devers or Bogaerts Story Verdugo Dalbec Vazquez JBJ or platoon TBD
That's a really good lineup. Do that, and you've improved the team from last year (once you factor in getting much more from Sale, Pivetta, Houck, and Whitlock); if you don't, they're sort of treading water.
Some other thoughts:
On paper, signing Schwarber and dealing JDM was a no-brainer (look at the better R/L balance if you can go Kiké, Schwarber, Bogaerts, Devers). They chose not to do it, and that is a big vote of confidence in Casas as an elite LH bat sooner that later, and a huge vote for Dalbec as a viable DH next year.
I'm unsure whether choosing to upgrade 2B over RF is a vote of confidence for Duran. They're trying Dalbec in LF, but I don't see that as being primarily a backup plan for next year in case Duran can't get his act together; since they're also teaching him some 2B, I think they're just looking for ways to get him into the lineup this year once Casas arrives. That's another sign that they are very high on him. Put Dalbec in LF and you've upgraded JBJ's spot in the lineup to Casas. And if he's the regular DH next year because Duran is starting in the OF, he can swap with almost anyone who needs a half-day off.
They still need a RH hitting corner OFer who can platoon with JBJ (ideally by playing RF so Verdugo isn't ping-ponging). Remaining free agents are all coming off back-to-back below 0 WAR years: Almora, Eaton, Fowler, Pham, and old friend Santana. If they thought any of these guys were due for a comeback, wouldn't they have already signed him?
So I'm guessing either a trade for a young guy they like, or an interesting waiver claim at the end of ST. That this bench spot is also an NRI-level job (along with Shaw) means that a) they have a choice of whom to dump when Casas arrives, and more importantly b) they can add someone significant later.
It seems to me that Dawinzon is going back to AAA until he gets his act together. I expect Robles to make the team and in the long run they may end up moving Davis.
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