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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 15:56:39 GMT -5
Why would that matter and who cares? Kind of a big overreaction? Odds are Sale will be injured then anyways.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 12:49:28 GMT -5
Its disgusting how we found out but if it is indeed true I'm very sad to hear about the Wakefields.
I met Tim Wakefield once when he was at a bank opening in my home town.
It was a hot day and the line was long and I bribed my 3 year old son with lots of sweets to be patient and stand in a long slow moving line and my son obliged, and kept his diaper dry during that tine.
We finally got in line to have our photo taken with Tim Wakefield and after the photo I had a moment of panic wondering where my son went off to. He didnt go far but my immediate line of vision still wasnt accustomed to looking so low to the ground.
Tim Wakefield was not only a great knuckleballer but also a dad, and he immediately recognized the look on my face and pointed to my son and said, "He's right there". I said, "Thanks Tim."
He's a good guy. So sad to hear of this. I dont think anybody on the Red Sox will ever wear 49 again. I could possibly see the Sox retiring it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 12:26:51 GMT -5
Orioles are looking to clinch. Sox should be able to oblige. Maybe theyll probably have a bigger celebration at the Sox expense this time than when Robert Andino ended the Sox 2011 season.
Meanwhile the Sox have clinched last place and a losing record.
Cant wait for all this crap to be over and see who the Sox hire and what they do this offseason to fix this mess.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 12:22:29 GMT -5
Sorry — I meant our own free agents. Like JT, Duvall, Chris Martin, et al. Will anyone be making those decisions before free agency begins? Martin isnt a free agent. Duvall is the only one I want back. I like Turner (although JD Martinez did have a better season at the plate, albeit with help from his batting coach), but I dont think given their configuration that he'll fit. Paxton can go.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 12:18:14 GMT -5
Gotta love all the Cora attacks now, since you know bloom couldn’t have possibly been fired on merit….. Did the team not quit on him two years in a row or we just gonna pretend it didn’t happen? They certainly didn’t play like a group trying to protect his employment status Coincidentally right after the trade deadline which is subject to interpretation in multiple ways.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 11:51:33 GMT -5
Cora hasn't wrapped himself in glory either with some of his managerial moves, although I wonder how many moves he did where he felt he was short handed or he was picking among terrible options.
I hated that he played Kiké at SS as much as he did. I hated that his SS were severely limited. He had too many bullpen games and openers because he didnt have starting pitchers.
He should have partial blame on the lack of fundamentals, but he also had fundamentally flawed players at his disposal.
I dont think he managed above their talent level but I dont think he manages below their level either. The frustration was highly visible and he looked like a guy who has aged 10 years in the last 2.
I think it was clear that he and Bloom werent on the same page.
Cora's job is to win now while Bloom's was to keep them competitive (for 6 months, not 4) while building something sustainable in the near future.
So while those things are somewhat at odds there is interesting overlap.
The first one is obvious. The big league team is supposed to compete for a playoff spot, not be way the hell out by mid August - it's not like trying to be a 3rd wild card is like trying to shoot for the stars.
The other interesting thing was the report that Cora was getting involved for a lack of a better word within the organization, which sounds like he was getting into prospect evaluation, again for a lack of a better word. I do t think managers concern themselves much beyond the big league club but it sounds like Cora was getting more of a voice within the organization beyond just the big league club. Maybe that caused more friction. I'm sure more will come out as time goes on. I dont think this wind up as tight lipped as the Dombrowski firing was.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 11:19:29 GMT -5
Contreras is a knucklehead who the Cards regretted signing almost immediately for reasons that don't show up in the box score. Maybe they should have done the deal anyway, and the replacement Vazquez deal was a boner, but I think this example actually does show the value of a guy with tendrils all throughout baseball. If the Astros wanted to they could easily insert Diaz as the catcher, but I think Baker values Maldonado as highly as he does that he still wouldnt replace Maldinado with Diaz to maximize an already strong lineup. He must feel there's enough intangibles that can't be accurately measured for the impact Maldonado's catching has on the pitching staff. If he's not doing that with Diaz now he certainly wouldn't have done that Contreras last season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2023 9:41:26 GMT -5
Not sure why you characterize Jansen as a mistake. Did you completely flush 2022? (Not blaming you if you did...) I sure appreciated Kenley's 88% save conversion rate until he ran into injury/illness at the end of the season. Rocky stretch after notching his 400th but overall I thought he did what he was brought in to do. Good clubhouse guy, too.
Also, I too have thought a lot about using a lot of guys for 3 IP but in practice it just never works out because you inevitably have to lift someone early and then the whole house of cards comes down for the next few days. Give me 5 solid men who can throw 180+ IP (kind of sad that qualifies these days) and then 2-3 top shelf guys at the back can shine, with support from some mid-inning long men.
5 guys throwing 180 IP is an impossible standard. There are 23 in all of MLB this year. True, but really sad and ridiculous. That's one of the top things that need to change about today's baseball.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 23:25:53 GMT -5
I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida. I agree that Yoshida is currently a more complete hitter and has a much better chance to be a well above average player next year, but are you confusing Valdez with someone else? He is definitely not someone I would consider undisciplined or unwilling to take a walk. If Valdez can learn to either field 2b, or hit LHP, at a non-awful level, he'll have a role on an MLB team for a number of years Fair. He has only 7 walks in 130 plus plate appearances, but has 60 plus walks the past 2 years in the minors and was average in that respect previously. So his real issue is defense plus cam he hit lefties? But otherwise he is intriguing, but the defense was bad enough to earn him a ticket back to AAA despite the revolving door at 2b since Pedroia left.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:56:58 GMT -5
Narrowing it down, he did a masterful job on the Vazquez trade Agreed. I'm starting to think Valdez wont amount to much because hes not a good 2b, but Abreu could be useful.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:55:24 GMT -5
I did like the Vazquez for Abreu and Valdez deal though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:54:27 GMT -5
Listen, say what you will about Bloom, but we can all agree that he did an absolutely massterful job at the 2022 trade deadline. No.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:53:34 GMT -5
Maybe the Bearclaw game was just the white flag game. They were out of it before then.
Now they're just there waiting for the season to end. At this point with being the greatest last place team on the history of baseball off the table, I couldnt care less if they win a game the rest of the year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:51:02 GMT -5
Our hitters have been so horrendous How many of us here saw the Bear Claw game as the season back breaker I think they were dine when McGuure was celebrating the walk off game winning double against the Blue Jays that never was. Predictably they lost the next game to get swept and suddenly they went from right in it with a chance to strike, just 2 games out to 5 out and they were pretty much cooked after that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 19:06:09 GMT -5
dombrowski gave them a national championship and Bloom was hired to build up the farm system..Both did what they wanted and bot were fired. where is the middle ground? Working for MLB. Making the playoffs consistently, mostly as a 3rd wild card, and never really winning anything.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 15:43:34 GMT -5
He's a slugger for sure but HARD pass for me. He was asking for 300+ while still on Nationals. Before 300+ contracts were this common. After a 5 WAR season what is it going to take to sign him? He is not a great teammate and just seems to me like the kind of player who will never perform to the level of the contract. Add the players it would take to acquire him and the fact he is another LH hitting LF and it doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Not saying you're incorrect but where are you getting that he's not a great teammate from? I've never seen anything of the sort written about him but I'm not well versed in Washington and San Diego columnists who would know better than I would. Also I would say that if anyone is going to perform to the level of a 300+ million dollar contract it's the guy who is a top 5-10 hitter in the league at the age of 24. It's not hard to see him maintaining being that good of a hitter for the next 10-12 years, his OBP numbers are insane as he has never had a season under .400. His K% has been under 20 every year since 2019, he's exactly the type of hitter who I would have no worry about a mega contract for. The last two points I can understand though, I wouldn't want to give up that good of a package for just one guaranteed season and he is a LHH LF who honestly with how his defensive metrics have plummeted may be DH only sooner than later which the Sox already have Yoshida right now and probably Devers in a few years who will probably benefit from a lot of DH time. I won't say he's a perfect target but if they can get him and sign him to an extension I'd say you figure the rest out later, but no doubt there would still be risk. The Red Sox put up with Manny Ramirez's LF defense first 7.5 years, I'm sure they'd be alright with Soto in LF.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 0:30:58 GMT -5
Ohtani’s market is a more fascinating question since his UCL injury and elbow surgery (the specifics of which have been kept quiet.) Additionally, teams that seemed poised to be aggressive may be curtailing such plans (see the Padres reports of cutting spending, or the Mets telling Scherzer they foresaw 2024 as a bridge year), and others (like the Red Sox?) may be opening their checkbooks. Went through the teams and was trying to think who might still be in the Ohtani Sweepstakes Won’t Spend What it Takes:Tampa, Orioles. The AL Central (Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Guardians, Royals), Oakland. Nationals, Marlins, the NL Central except Cubs (Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates). Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres Maybe one of the billionaires who owns these teams goes for it, but either recent history or circumstances would suggest it’s unlikely. In Theory Could Afford - But Do They Want to Go Crazy?Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Phillies These teams are some combination of focused on other needs (such as Blue Jays needed to extend Bichette/Vladdy soon and resign half a lineup), not desperate enough (Braves, Astros), maybe not thrilled about the cost even if they could (Cubs?) or already have a lot of money locked up (Phillies, Rangers). But they have shown they can shell out cash. NYC - They Have Money… Does the Owner Want to Spend?Yankees, Mets 🤷♂️ “Please Come Back”Angels This won’t happen. Let’s move on. West Coast Team With Ichiro’s LegacyMariners They have a moderately clean payroll, a good young core, an appeal to Japanese players cemented by Ichiro. Really the only question is if their budget can afford Shohei, which we don’t really know. Desperate to Make a Splash?
Red Sox, Giants Both teams are under the CBT. The Red Sox have fired their GM and certain personalities (Middlebrooks, Gammons) have thrown it out there. Tom Werner has publicly thirsted over Ohtani. The Giants tried like hell to get a big fish last year - but presumably their powder is dry for another go. Inevitable?Dodgers It’s a bit under the radar… but it appears the Dodgers never actually reset the CBT from what I have seen. They might just not care. Half of their pitchers have like Tommy John. It’s unclear how Ohtani’s injury would affect their pursuit. Perhaps it’s there’s some groupthink/echo chamber effect at play and that’s why it’s assumed he’s going here, but it’s not crazy to think this is the market setter for Ohtani. I might be off base on a few of these, but I wonder if this ultimately comes down to just a few teams if certain big market teams are either scared off or aren’t spending for their own reasons. Overall seems logical. I'd put the Phillies in some other category and wouldn't be shocked if DD went for both Otani and Trout. If forced to place a bet, Otani to the Dodgers, Trout to the Phillies. That would be my guess.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2023 0:20:56 GMT -5
So I guess a PoBO shouldn't bother to watch the players play. Just look at spreadsheets if numbers, plug in the proper formulas and voila, you're smarter than everybody else. I'm sorry but I'd rather have a PoBO who can do both, use the data AND use their scouting eyes. You have to be able to evaluate your talent. You have to know your talent. Spreadsheets also dont know who has personal issues that will stunt their growth, ot work ethic that will allow a player to overcome adversity. Nor does it guarantee the best trades, best free agent choices, etc. The Epstein talked about using both the numbers and his scouting eyes as using both lenses. I think leaning too heavily on one or the other is not a good thing. I guess my point is that “using your scouting eyes” involves a lot of analytics these days. Things like exit velocity and spin rates and the like are essential scouting tools, because they can actually measure the things they’re looking at rather than just guessing. Nobody goes out there and says “this kid’s got a sweet swing, he can play” anymore. It makes sense, because a scout going off vibes isn’t gonna do well against a scout who can measure exactly how much a fastball moves or can easily tell the difference between a home run that’s 102 off the bat and one that’s 108. The showcase circuit isn’t so important for amateur scouting just because these showcases draw all the best high school talent in the country, they also give scouts their best opportunity to collect tons of incredibly valuable data on the guys they’re scouting. These things are all taken into account when they run their projection models. The scouts are helping to make the spreadsheets. It’s not 2002, there isn’t a huge dichotomy between scouting and analytics. They need to be integrated—scouts and analysts both need to understand what data is useful and why. Baseball is unique in how measurable it is, and the tracking data we have available these days makes it possible to marry scouting and analytics in exactly the way Theo has described in the past. Beyond it, really. Maybe I’m just misunderstanding you, you haven’t really explained what you actually mean by identifying and evaluating talent. But like, PBO isn’t going on scouting trips and writing up reports for himself. He’s got a large network of scouts to do that for him. None of that involves actual judgment. Are you telling me that Bloom would use the baseball trade simulator to determine if a particular trade was worth making? Because if you're not and you have to make a trade, then you're actually using your own judgment. When Dombrowski joined the Sox what was one of the first things he did? He went and saw his players. He checked out his minor leaguers personally. Why? He wanted to see or verify with his own eyes if the spreadsheets matched up to what he saw. I cant imagine that even the dinosaur that he is, he's the only GM who actually watches his players. You make it sound like any schmuck with an awesome understanding of spreadsheets, a master of analytics, could be PoBO and even watching their own games and players isnt necessary. I'm sorry but I tend to think baseball is more all encompassing than that. I'm not disputing the heavy usage of stats and analytics at all, even in the realm of scouting, but there is still more that is involved, including the human element, and being able to go through all that and make judgments on how to improve your ballclub, those analytics can help guide decision making but they are not the be all end all of decision making. For example the analytics say you could be giving up more WAR than you're receiving. Do you still make the trade? Do you even necessarily buy what the stat is telling you is going to happen in the future? Is the stat considering that this player with his bad personal habits might eat or drink himself out of the game or have that nagging back issue and not be what he is projected to be? Or if the stats appear to be on target does that mean the move shouldn't be made even if it fills a huge hole that is dragging the team down? Those are decisions that require judgment and you need to be right a lot more than be wrong to keep your job. Again, I already pointed to human factors that PoBO face, such as personal issues with their players from great/awful attitudes, drinking and/or drug issues, PEDs issues, personal issues, stuff an algorithm isnt going to consider, things that can affect a players performance, etc. That kind of stuff happens more often than you think. My point is you make the job sound push button, just follow the stats and that's all you need to do. That sounds incomplete to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2023 21:23:23 GMT -5
I think the ability to judge talent is crucial. Knowing spreadsheets doesnt make one necessarily good at judging talent. Whoever they get might likely will need to sort out the talent to judge who must be kept, who is expendable, and to what extent, etc as they may need to parlay some of that talent for a reliable starter or eventually perhaps a RH power bat given how left handed they're becoming. What exactly do you mean by judging talent? To me, knowing talent these days means knowing which columns of the spreadsheet are most important and how they interact with each other. With the technology behind Statcast we can measure talent in ways that were not possible in the past. How hard does he hit the ball? What’s the movement profile of his breaking ball? How does he hit against velo at the top of the zone? These are all things that go on the spreadsheet. The best coaches are the ones that understand how approach/mechanics/etc affect these things, and can use that data to help players make the right changes. So I guess a PoBO shouldn't bother to watch the players play. Just look at spreadsheets if numbers, plug in the proper formulas and voila, you're smarter than everybody else. I'm sorry but I'd rather have a PoBO who can do both, use the data AND use their scouting eyes. You have to be able to evaluate your talent. You have to know your talent. Spreadsheets also dont know who has personal issues that will stunt their growth, ot work ethic that will allow a player to overcome adversity. Nor does it guarantee the best trades, best free agent choices, etc. The Epstein talked about using both the numbers and his scouting eyes as using both lenses. I think leaning too heavily on one or the other is not a good thing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2023 20:39:13 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say. Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition. But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too. The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team. I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2023 20:27:13 GMT -5
Always. But are we sure he wasn't reborn into the body of Chris Martin? Martin has been awesome, no doubt, but Koji is in a pantheon by himself. He had about 20 more innings and then you have to factor in post season, too. He got the clinching out of the division clincher, the clinching out of the ALDS, the clinching out of the ALCS, where, oh yeah, he was MVP, and more famously, the clinching out of the World Series. He pitched in the highest leverage situations and turned a tenuous bullpen into a monumental strength. I get he wasnt to that nth degree from 2014 - 2016, but my image of Uehara is from 2013, where hes on his own planet. Martin was awesome but Koji..is Koji, and beyond Pedro and Clemens was my favorite pitcher in 40 plus years of fandom to watch. I missed Tiant or he'd probably rank right up there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2023 20:17:36 GMT -5
Next hire can't be full nerd (sorry if that isn't PC, i mean it endearingly.... ). Fine if he is a partial nerd, but don't anyone wedded to a spreadsheet. Gunslinger who takes smart risks and isn't risk adverse to the point of hubris / overanalysis. Add: i think a full review of the org lifers is in order as well. Don't know much about them, and they have done well, but it may be time for serious change of leadership in many areas. I think the ability to judge talent is crucial. Knowing spreadsheets doesnt make one necessarily good at judging talent. Whoever they get might likely will need to sort out the talent to judge who must be kept, who is expendable, and to what extent, etc as they may need to parlay some of that talent for a reliable starter or eventually perhaps a RH power bat given how left handed they're becoming.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 21:00:05 GMT -5
I am now thinking my 79 win guess was too optimistic. That makes me sad. Imagine how ridiculous I must feel. I picked 81. They'll end up with about the same number of wins as last year's 78 and that's with $80M worth of AAV in FA signings last off-season. Worst yet, those signings included Yoshi, who's at .6 FG WAR and 1.3 B-Ref WAR and has another four years and $72M left. It's grim. I feel....not so bright. I originally picked 81 wins but liked what I saw. I revised them upward to 85 wins and thought that they could even hit their best case scenario of 90 wins. I based it on Sale's 6 game stretch after he made mechanical adjustments and looked as good as he has been since 2018. Take an ace Chris Sale, Bello maturing rapidly, and Paxton looking like his old self, too, I deluded myself into thinking they could maintain it, but that Bloom could hedge his bets by picking up a playoff caliber starter, and it would drop Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, and Crawford into the bullpen with Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, and Bernardino, add in a lineup that would add back Story and Duvall....well the only thing I didnt like was the terrible team defense, but i figured that Story couldn't be much worse than what had been at SS, but that Bloom would add defense to the bench as i would think a capable glove or two for the bench would be cheaper to obtain than most other commodities. Others were saying they should wave the white flag but they were 56-47 and right in the thick of things. Trade Paxton and/or Turner? Ridiculous. I figured they'd add rather than subtract, but instead they did virtually nothing and my premise of a big 3 in Sale, Bello, and Paxton bit the dust. Then Toronto swept them and they were done. I knew it when Toronto swept them, it was over, although it shouldn't have been. But they have collapsed, going 20-33 since. Boy was I wrong. Like I said before, if my job this year was to properly judge what the Red Sox were, I would have been fired, too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 19:19:25 GMT -5
I am now thinking my 79 win guess was too optimistic. That makes me sad. You and I have to quit being such pollyannas
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2023 18:20:47 GMT -5
Yeah I know they're not likely to sign him. My point is why would the Brewers want to punt on 2024 when they have a legit shot of winning in 2024? That would be like the Sox trading Pedro Martinez after 2003 when it was obvious the Sox had a legit shot to win in 2004. The Brewers don't get too many legit shots so I dont see them downgrading from Burnes in 2024 unless the season is lost come July. The Brewers have been on 1 World Series in their history, way back in 1982. I think they'll do everything in their power to take their best shot this year and next as pitchers like Burnes dont come around often. True - but they trader Hader. And teams like MIL do trade studs for value before losing them for a comp pick. The backlash mid-season for doing so is enormous. So I think it depends what they think they could get. I don't think Houck does it, esp as he likely nest fits in epn as you said. But would they take Sale+cash or Pivetta or Houck (if they think they see a way to maximize either in a starting role) plus Perales and Bleis? That's a deal we shouldn't do if we can get Yamamoto for $200M over 8 without giving up prospects, but... just curious what people think. You may well be right. I think the easiest thing to see that they should absolutely do is sign either Montgomery or Imanaga to have a lefty starter because they have none on the horizon. If they overpay a bit, it's OK. The top of rotation righty is the tougher piece to the 2024 puzzle. If say Hader is easier for Milwaukee to replace than Burnes. If I were relying on Sale to replace Burnes quality and quantity of innings I would be very concerned about that and having Houck around woukdnt really make that concern subside. If I were Milwaukee I would want Bello in a deal for Burnes or a high ceiling upper minor league starting pitcher. The Sox really dont have one if those, so Bello would be the guy I'd demand if I were Milwaukee.
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