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Post by dcb26 on Dec 17, 2023 14:39:16 GMT -5
The only thing you need to consider with an opt-out is if you would want to sign the player to his remaining deal at the time the opt-out comes up. If yes, and the player opts out, the opt-out was bad for the team. Otherwise, it was neutral or good for the team. What am I missing here? If a player opts out of a contract and a team then gives the player a dumb next contract, that has nothing to do with the original contract and does not change its value.
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 9, 2023 15:11:36 GMT -5
Andrew Bailey singled out Llovera as someone he liked working with , I can see them keeping him and see what Bailey can do with him The thing is, he's out of options just like Mata. Might keep him around until the spring but he needs to make the team. I found Llovera super-intriguing last year. I think he's at the top of my "guys who probably project to 0.0 WAR that I really hope they keep around" list
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 8, 2023 18:29:16 GMT -5
Never thought the 38-man roster could get so crowded. Sounds like it's 40+38=78 spots A trade was called for. Those 7 players aren't coming back Are you complaining about minor league phase rule 5 picks? There’s a reason why they weren’t traded, they do not have trade value. I don't want to get into a back and forth or anything but I think a mentality of "they aren't worth much so they're worth nothing" would be a concerning way to look at it, if you're saying that was or should have been the team's perspective. I would be surprised for example if these players were at the absolute bottom of the organization's depth chart.
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 7, 2023 21:05:30 GMT -5
Very displeased by how this was handled with the pre-draft decision making and how it played out. Not surprising that a new FO would value some current players less than the old regime, but losing this many players for nothing, topped off by a legitimate prospect like Drohan, doesn't seem like good business.
Slaten does sound intriguing and I'm glad to see the Sox pick him up.
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 5, 2023 18:03:04 GMT -5
I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. I think this is a fair point - but if he's just a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, wouldn't it make sense just get Jordan Montgomery (who is basically that already) for his 5 year/105 mil projection (+ whatever % increase Boras is able to make happen through savvy negotiating)? ... when you put aside the age factor, specifically how good is Yamamoto? Yeah both valid points. Re: Montgomery, I see 3 things: 1) even if you project them both as a 2, Yamamoto definitely has ace upside, which Montgomery does not; 2) The age difference is real, and so signing Yamamoto to a longer deal is potentially a good thing, you would theoretically get a much larger percentage of the deal in pre-decline years; 3) I think 5/105 is much, much less than Montgomery signs for - it would be almost criminal *not* to pursue him at that price, regardless of anything else. To the point about "when you put aside the age factor..." it's a concern for teams with very limited spending but I just don't think you can take that out of the equation if you consider things from the Sox perspective. Regardless of exactly where they are in payroll rankings, the Sox have the resources to supplement Yamamoto with other signings, so he only has to be good enough to be a non-terrible investment to be worth signing, because his age makes his decline risk so much less than many other available pitchers. They won't have to depend solely on him to carry the franchise. To be clear, I'm just outlining why I think the projected cost is more reasonable than many other people seem to think. He is absolutely a risk, but both extremes are still in play - risk to be a disaster if he is unplayable, but with real ace upside as well.
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Post by dcb26 on Dec 5, 2023 15:17:43 GMT -5
If they truly believe he’s an MLB ace then I guess there isn’t really a price too high There are just so few of those on the planet and he hasn’t done anything in the bigs so it’s a gamble. Although I will say this- with the amount of info teams have nowadays it is less of a gamble than it would have been 20 years ago I'm in complete agreement, but I think the sticker shock of $300 million is causing people to miss the fact that if he's *just* a solid #2 starter with a #3 floor, that's still likely to be a very good deal, given that he should be able to remain at that level for a while. As Chris said, pitchers like that just don't hit free agency - so we need to evaluate him differently than the "well he better win a CY in the first 3 years or this is going to be a disaster" standard for most massive contracts given to FA pitchers. Put another way, I thought the max I would want to go to for him was 9/230, and then 10/260, but if 10/300 is what it takes, I'm in
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 24, 2023 18:10:46 GMT -5
Random OF thoughts from a hotel bar: -I'm skeptical that Duran could transition to LF as smoothly as people think - look at how long the adjustment to CF took, and factor in new position, new reads, new way of tracking the ball off the bat, Fenway negates his plus speed, etc. -I'm comfortable with and maybe even prefer penciling Abreu/Rafaela into a single outfield spot. They both deserve a chance, but giving them both starting roles is too risky -One of Verdugo or Duran should be traded - would want a significant overpay in the Sox' favor somewhere to move both -Duvall should be brought back. Technically anyone with a similar profile would be fine, but I dont know where else you get his combination of rh power bat/ good fit in Fenway / non-disastrous defense / low cost. Plus, we at least know his upside with this team is legit -Personally (and I get why others would disagree) I'm bullish on Yoshida playing at least a passable LF next year. Time to get used to MLB + time to learn the monster + the trouble advanced defensive stats have with Fenway + (hopefully) better defensive positioning from the coaches (did it seem to anyone else like this was especially bad last year?) = a chance I'm willing to take
I'm not entirely sure what that all means (I *think* it's Yoshida LF / Rafaela CF / Duvall RF with Abreu/Duran fighting over a spot to fill in when needed vs RHP and Ref on the bench) but I see that as at worst a stable foundation to build on
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 23, 2023 7:21:28 GMT -5
The end of this game was in no way the same as the issues the last few years. The ball was moving all over the court when the Celtics were on offenses right up until the end, they were getting good looks, they just happened to have a couple of shots rim out and also miss a single ft in the last 2 minutes. Meanwhile Lillard got red hot and took the whole offense with him for a bit, leading to a run right at the end that made the final score closer than it really was. That's just basketball, didn't look anything like the late game collapses of years past.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 17, 2023 20:43:51 GMT -5
Trading a young position player with upside for a reliever should be a cardinal sin of baseball
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 16, 2023 13:39:40 GMT -5
If Sale throws like 150 IP with a low 3’s ERA and some notable games there’s a good chance one of the two Boston voters puts him on their ballot. If Sale does that he may well WIN the CY (and we'd all be thrilled to have him for another year)
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 16, 2023 12:49:20 GMT -5
Yeah, to me it's really a question of whether holding on to Drohan until at least next April/May to see if he can rebound is worth more than whoever the last person on the 40 man ends up being. In my opinion, yes, absolutely, and so I would have protected him.
I can understand why people might feel differently, but I don't really understand the "it would be a disaster to protect him all winter and then dfa him" argument - the only cost there is whoever the next-last person on the 40-man is, which isn't likely to be worth a ton. And yeah, you're more likely to lose Drohan if you eventually dfa him, but if you have to do that it's probably not much of a loss at that point anyway.
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 16, 2023 12:36:07 GMT -5
I can't believe Zolak doesn't know what he's talking about during games either. I have no opinion on the outcome of this conversation but in general you're probably better off going with the opposite of anything Zolak says. Seems to me like he just uses the game broadcasts to build up talking points for his show, but regardless he tends to be comicly incorrect about what happened on the field if you watch the TV broadcast while listening to the radio
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 13, 2023 8:54:24 GMT -5
Not looking to move Verdugo just to dump him, but: 1) I think it would be best for both he and Cora, given how things played out last year, and 2) There is redundancy in the OF relative to some other spots on the roster, and Verdugo seems like the best option to trade So I can just not game out a situation in which trading Verdugo doesn't open up a hole on the roster that would end up devilishly hard to fill - and bedevilling them, most likely, throughout the season.
I don't mean for this to come across as overly critical but for this to play out as you fear: Verdugo would need to be better than projections And Abreu would need to be worse than projections And three of Duvall/Duran/Refsnyder/Rafaela/Abreu would need to be hurt or underperforming And Yoshida would need to be truly unable to play LF And there would need to be no other cheap, serviceable OF depth available internally/otherwise It's not that this is an impossible scenario, (and they would need to re-sign Duvall, which I think is critical) but unlikely enough that I don't think keeping the status quo is the best way to allocate resources. I would also like to see Abreu and Rafaela each get a real chance - normally I'd say they could work on things in AAA, but I'm worried about them developing bad habits in that stadium and feel like based on last year they can continue to be eased into the big leagues
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 12, 2023 19:14:10 GMT -5
How many front offices do you believe there are across baseball who don't know the goal of the sport is to win games? Not the right question here. One could argue that DD was fired to tipping the balance too far to winning MLB games at the cost of spending too much money on FAs who didn't deliver and not reinforcing the farm, while Bloom was fired for not winning enough MLB games and tipping the balance too far toward farm development. Also, Kennedy was pretty emphatic that the focus had to be on winning MLB games in the post-firing statement. You're new so you missed that this has been discussed a bit here during the last several years. Thanks, but while I don't post much I've read the forums daily for the last 17 or 18 years so I'm pretty up to speed on the discussion. My point is that it's a nothing throwaway comment from Breslow, designed, at most, to appease talk-radio-quality fans while he starts to get things operational. As far as Bloom and DD and basically every GM everywhere, yes, they will disagree about how to go about winning but I don't think they were confused about the general concept. If Breslow had come out and said "my goal is to win the most games possible next year, regardless of long-term implications" or "sum total of wins over the next 10 seasons is what is most important to me" that might tell us something. For this one the headline might as well have been "Craig Breslow can use words"
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 12, 2023 10:15:59 GMT -5
I love this quote. “It’s important not to lose sight that the goal of any organization is to win Major League games,” Breslow said. “It’s not to have the greatest farm system. It’s not to have the most prospect depth. It’s to win games.” Yes! Posted this in the free agent thread a couple days ago. I am wondering if it is a case of him, saying, the right things in terms of what ownership wants to hear, or if this is his philosophy going forward. How many front offices do you believe there are across baseball who don't know the goal of the sport is to win games?
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Post by dcb26 on Nov 11, 2023 11:26:38 GMT -5
I'm thinking there won't be a whole lot of action with FA pitching until Yamamoto makes a decision, as I assume he will be expected to set the market. Considering that, I wonder if the Sox should just make aggressive offers to, say, Nola and Imanaga asap and try to guarantee they are able to walk away early with whatever Breslow and the FO conisder to be an acceptable outcome.
I very much want Yamamoto on the Sox, but being the first or second runner up after Yamamoto simply couldn't turn down the Mets' 350 million dollar offer seems all too possible, followed by having to scramble to offer Blake Snell 175 million just to not go empty-handed
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Post by dcb26 on Oct 27, 2023 12:30:10 GMT -5
The world series hasn't even started yet and we've now hit a full page of discussion because someone used the word "the" instead of "a" - hah it's going to be a long off-season, isn't it.
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Post by dcb26 on Oct 20, 2023 12:33:49 GMT -5
For me, I really don't want an ex-player, and I don't really want a sports analyst/evaluator-type either. I think the job description has changed enough over the last couple decades that neither of those are the important skill sets. The most critical role for a GM now is someone who can efficiently manage a dynamic payroll balancing future and present needs and constraints across a shifting set of regulations, limitations, and competitive environments. The rest of the staff can very ably take care of the other stuff. I'd poach a hot tech CFO before I'd think about almost any of the current candidates. Not to speak for anyone, but the way I interpreted this post is "front offices have changed enough that running a front office is a lot more like running any other business than it ever used to be. Leadership, management, organization, smart hiring, and putting others in position to succeed, are more important traits for PoBO than ability to scout players or develop analytics etc." If so, I definitely agree. Put another way, I don't care if my PoBO is a better scout/analyst/coach than your PoBO, I care that he or she brings in the best scouts, analysts, and coaches and helps make them successful
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Post by dcb26 on Oct 5, 2023 7:31:14 GMT -5
Ty Law was indeed one of many very physical defenders on that defense.
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Post by dcb26 on Oct 4, 2023 18:33:32 GMT -5
Can I ask how Jack Jones reminds you of Ty Law? Ty Law was a physical corner, Jack Jones is the opposite of physical.. 5'11" man cover CB that can make unreal plays on the ball. Rules changes, no one can play physical like people did back then and frankly I don't remember Ty Law being a crazy physical player. I remember man cover corner with great ball skills, I was like 12 his rookie year. They literally changed that rule because of Ty Law and how physical he was with receivers Jackson is a surprisingly good pickup given the situation they are in - almost 0 cost and reason for optimism due to his previous success in the system. I can't imagine getting another player with the upside of having the ability to hold the pass defense together (even if it is somewhat unlikely for Jackson) without giving up a small fortune.
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Post by dcb26 on Oct 3, 2023 21:11:14 GMT -5
This list makes it seems like you're just sort of offended by the concept of role players. It's hard to imagine, at any rate, what sort of upgrade you think you can make on guys like McGuire, Urias, and Reyes, given the FA options. Or Verdugo for that matter. I'd say the same of Refsnyder, though with the young outfielders coming up maybe you could make the case for replacing him in-house. I'm offended by mediocre/losing/ historically injured players. It's my opinion. You don't have to like it or agree with it. Last 2 years were awful. Significant change is needed Are you assuming they would be able to replace all of the names you gave with better players, or is the idea just that "these guys aren't good enough, so anything different has to be better" ?
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 26, 2023 21:58:23 GMT -5
If Yoshi is mainly a DH next year, how much value does he provide, compared with a much cheaper player with offensive upside who also hits LH? Maybe a kid like Enmanuel Valdez, let's say. Yoshi is at 1.6 B-Ref oWAR/500 PAs. Valdez is at 1.9. Yes, it's only one year and Yoshi may have worn down from the US travel. He might perform better next year because he'll have had a year to adjust to ML life and competition. But given the choice over the next four years and the needs the Red Sox have, would you take Valdez and his cost-controlled salary (which will be peanuts, as he doesn't have a full year of service time yet) or Yoshi at his $18M/year? Keep in mind that Valdez will play his age 25 season in 2024, so he might get better, too. The Yoshi contract is a potential burden on the next POBBO and team. I like Yoshida's bat better than Valdez Although I get your point about Valdes better per $ value, but Valdez doesnt hit lefties well, plus hes not really a pure hitter the way Masataka is. I dont think Valdez would hit .280 - .310. He's probably between .230 - .260. I think he'd jack more homers than Yoshida. It is possible Yoshida does better next year, knows the league better, is better equipped to deal with a full season. But yeah it his numbers decline like they did from the all star break on, thay becomes a rough contract. I thought Yoshida's big advantage was drawing walks and not whiffing, but his walks are so much lower than I thought it would be. I know Valdrz isnt a walker but I thought Yoshida would be, and in the future maybe that picks up I see Valdez as a guy with a decent slugging average but poor on base pct. Meanwhile Yoshida needs to be better with the bat next year. If not then they really did overpay for Yoshida. I agree that Yoshida is currently a more complete hitter and has a much better chance to be a well above average player next year, but are you confusing Valdez with someone else? He is definitely not someone I would consider undisciplined or unwilling to take a walk. If Valdez can learn to either field 2b, or hit LHP, at a non-awful level, he'll have a role on an MLB team for a number of years
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 23, 2023 11:56:42 GMT -5
Friends, context exists. It's not as simple as "84 win team > 43 win team, so the 84 win obviously team had an easier start, since the GM only needed to find six measly wins". Late 2019. Highest payroll in the majors. Worst ranked farm in the majors, and just about barren in terms of near-MLB-ready talent. High-priced FAs like Sale and Eovaldi dealing with health issues. Other high-priced FAs like Price and JDM past their primes and entering the back halfs of their deals. Powerhouse young core still productive, but getting much more expensive, without too much control left, and already unable to compensate for the dead weight elsewhere on the roster. The arrow was pointing down and there was no mechanism to change that besides a rebuild... We might as well talk about how Romulus Augustus had soooo much land back in 475 CE when he, at the wise old age of 10, started his 10-month tenure as the last ruler of the obviously-doomed Western Roman Empire. Why didn't he just, you know, acquire 6 measly cities for his empire so the barbarians couldn't get close? He already had a whole *empire*! Bolded is the crux of the disagreement. For some people, its "wow, he did better than I thought anyone would" while for others its "his job was to make the team a perennial winner, that didn't happen"
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 21, 2023 20:06:57 GMT -5
Verdugo is a guy that you should be happy to have for a cheap salary, but he's also a guy you shouldn't hesitate to move on from or upgrade when the time comes. Young guys needing playing time, chance to upgrade the position e.g. Duvall, last year of his contract, likely to be somewhat valuable in a trade, repeated issues with the coaching staff - seems to me like there are a number of semi-compelling reasons to trade him
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 19, 2023 17:21:04 GMT -5
I think a lot of the skill position players are better than they're being given credit for - not great but a lot of solid potential. Henry and Bourne look improved and good overall and many of the rest are new this year in what seems more like a traditional Pats offense, which usually took a little while to click with new players and for everyone to get on the same page. They're going to be frustrating though - the rookies will make mistakes, (already seeing it with Douglas' fumble and Boutte twice unable to keep his feet inbounds last week) and Parker will be injured, and Stevenson will continue to be ineffective in short yardage situations, etc. It's more that they have very little margin for error, and so far they have shot themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes to go along with OL play that, at least this past week, was nothing but errors.
If they can somehow get the OL playing better there's reason for optimism; if this past week was a sign of things to come, then yeah its going to be a brutal year.
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