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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 17, 2023 10:33:01 GMT -5
Taking a long term view ++ Jarren Duran is the most significant development. He's gone from an afterthought to now looking like a guy who could give you 10 cheap WAR. + Long term pitching on the ML roster is about holding serve, some up a little, some down a little. This is Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Winckowski, Crawford and Schreiber. I will give them a plus for zero arm surgeries. + Shane Drohan has taken a leap forward and is now in the big group of guys you could reasonably stick at the end of a top 100 prospects list. If he gets through the year healthy he should be an early 2024 major league contributor. + Yoshida's contract looks pretty good + Long term hitting prospects are doing pretty good. Marcelo is the most important guy and he's been good. Bleis won't be on the Ronald Acuna career path, but he's been okay. Yorke has been good, and there's a handful of lower tier guys improving their stock. Nobody has really fallen off a cliff. = Devers is the most important guy in the org and he's holding steady. He's been murdering the ball, getting unlucky, has shown worsening plate discipline and improving defense. = Next wave of hitting prospects is holding serve. Abreu and Hamilton have increased their stock. Valdez has hit in the majors, but not the minors, and his defense is as bad as advertised. Rafaela is the most important guy in this group and his stock has fallen some. - Casas' bat has been a little bit worse than expected, although he's currently on a major heater so I don't think there is much concern there. His defense has been much worse than expected, unfortunately. - Next wave of pitching prospects is looking like an airball. Mata and Murphy are playing themselves off the 40 man roster, and Walter has just been an average AAA pitcher coming back from his significant injury. Expectations were not especially high for this group, at least. - A-ball pitching has been a disaster. None of these guys were significant investments, but very few are playing well. What criteria are you using to base your perceptions of the lower level prospects on? It seems like you're just going off of the basic stats which, for one, I'd argue is a flawed way to go about it, but I'm also confused about the seeming inconsistency between calling the A-ball pitching a "disaster" while saying Bleis has been "okay".
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 16, 2023 22:13:37 GMT -5
Christopher Troye has struck out 31 of the 62 batters he's faced so far.... seems good! Nice to see him building off of some preseason buzz, I'd imagine once someone out of that Guerrero/Fernandez/Dehlinger group gets promoted to Worcester, he's the likely candidate to fill that void as he's already old-ish for his level.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 16, 2023 10:39:23 GMT -5
Would be interesting to know if that is tied to a development in a secondary pitch, or if he's just overpowering guys with the fastball. Either way, exciting indicator given he's so young still.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2023 18:48:52 GMT -5
Seattle's pitching staff for me is the best in the AL even with the loss of Ray: Kirby, Miller and Gilbert are the best trio of young SP out there. Bryce Miller has been excellent, too
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2023 14:35:34 GMT -5
Y'know, that's not a bad comp at all. I think the only big difference is that Espinoza, to me, felt like a big injury risk looking at his size compared to his stuff, which kind of bore out. Although it was such big stuff that maybe the injury risk brought him back into the Bleis range a bit? (For those who don't recall, think Perales but with even bigger stuff and smaller.) They got 2.5 years of Pomeranz there, although my recollection, which is kind of confirmed by the trade analysis Ian wrote at the time, was that it was a very steep price to pay in a win-now deal, perhaps made a bit easier to swallow because the system was loaded in those days. We noted the deal allowed them to keep the Moncada, Benintendi, Devers trio, but that Espinoza was at the time better than Jay Groome (who signed the day of the trade!) and Michael Kopech. I'll add though that even since just 2016, the landscape for trading minor leaguers below Double-A has changed drastically. I wonder if teams would make that deal today given the risk of exactly what happened to Espinoza happening. Teams want guys close to MLB now. Wasn't that also the deal, though, where the Padres were being sketchy about Pomeranz' medicals? Yeah, I think your recollections are all spot-on, it just kind of came to mind as a high level comp due to the tools at their respective positions and relative to their level of "rawness", and if I'm not mistaken Espinoza was ranked pretty similar in national lists to where Bleis is right now.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2023 11:25:46 GMT -5
Well herein lies the problem with watering down an evaluation to a single number, right? He's a FV55 for Pipeline, but the ceiling is much higher while the floor is also much lower. Kind of narrows the kind of deal he even fits into. For what it's worth though, had anyone labeled him as truly untouchable? Like you're not trading him for a half-year rental (as you allude to), but would anyone say they wouldn't move him for multiple years of team control of a proven MLB 55 or better? Obviously this trade didn't quite work out (although Pomeranz's 2017 was awesome, which I don't remember), but it seems like a pretty comparable case to Anderson Espinoza.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 14, 2023 10:25:02 GMT -5
Bobby's days are numbered. Don't think they'd hesitate to DFA him if they needed the spot on the 40. Gammons texting the Red Sox source he’s acting as a mouthpiece for: “Hey I’ve got a few characters left in this tweet, anything else you want me to add?… no, can’t fit ‘all time good guy’, that takes me one character over… make all time one word? Sure!”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 13, 2023 9:04:12 GMT -5
Nice problem to have if Verdugo extensions talks go poorly. Chaim should have some ammunition to work with this deadline and winter with more talent making its way to AA and above considering teams are targeting high minor guys in trades these days. Not that I’m in a rush to trade him but his proximity boosting his trade value was absolutely something that also came to mind for me
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2023 17:13:44 GMT -5
Tony Gwynn won one of his that way. Melky Cabrera was supposed to win that way the year he got busted for steroids but they made up a rule at the last minute that said you can't win a batting title if you fall short because of your suspension. Oh that’s amazing, I try to give my boss a fun stat of the day every day at work and he LOVES Tony Gwynn stats, so I will be telling him that Monday
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2023 17:02:04 GMT -5
How many more PAs before All World All Star Jarren Duran™ qualifies for league batting statistics? You need 3.1 plate appearances for each game the team has played to qualify. The Sox have played 38 games which currently means 117.8 to qualify. Jarren has 88 plate appearances now so he needs to make up 30. If you are short the 502 at the end of the year, you can add outs as plate appearances to win a batting title. Has that scenario ever happened?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2023 15:53:04 GMT -5
I think you're conflating uncertainty with upside. Just because we don't know what David Hamilton can do at the MLB level doesn't mean it's likely, or even possible, that he's better than Kiké. Given A) Kiké has been generally fine lately, B) The team isn't suffering with him being less than stellar, and C) A lot of what he brings isn't represented by OAA or wRC+, I would strongly disagree that it's currently worth giving him a shot. If this were August 2022 and the Red Sox were middling while Hamilton was hitting well, then sure. But there is no incentive for the Red Sox to take that risk right now. I'd also add D) Kiké's going to be reduced to that role when some combination of Mondesi/Duvall/Story return anyway, so even less to be gained by bringing Hamilton up for a short spurt unless you think he has the potential to surprise at a Duran level. You're right in that we don't know what Hamilton will be at the ML level. But if he does continue to play the way he has in AAA then you are a much better team for it. If he struggles, you send him back down and move Kiké back in until story/mondesi are back. I'd disagree that Kiké isnt hurting the team with his less than stellar play to this point. On top of his 8 errors in the field and .239 avg/.658 ops/.299 obp, he's also hitting .222 with a .525 ops with RISP. If you could guarantee me that Hamilton’s MLB production would be a like-for-like match of his AAA production then sure, sign me up… but that’s not how it works
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2023 11:24:11 GMT -5
Except he never said to âÂÂrelease himâÂÂ. He said that Kikè is a super utility guyâ¦which he is. I have no idea if Hamilton is the answer to anything, but it seems like you created an argument just so you could DESTROY it. Thank you for pointing that out. I never said release Kiké, merely move him to a super utility role. Defensively he is not an everyday SS and he certainly does not hit enough to justify the poor defense at the position. My main point was that we should not block young players who may have upside with vets who don't. Not saying hamilton will pan out but worth giving him a shot. I think you're conflating uncertainty with upside. Just because we don't know what David Hamilton can do at the MLB level doesn't mean it's likely, or even possible, that he's better than Kiké. Given A) Kiké has been generally fine lately, B) The team isn't suffering with him being less than stellar, and C) A lot of what he brings isn't represented by OAA or wRC+, I would strongly disagree that it's currently worth giving him a shot. If this were August 2022 and the Red Sox were middling while Hamilton was hitting well, then sure. But there is no incentive for the Red Sox to take that risk right now. I'd also add D) Kiké's going to be reduced to that role when some combination of Mondesi/Duvall/Story return anyway, so even less to be gained by bringing Hamilton up for a short spurt unless you think he has the potential to surprise at a Duran level.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 11, 2023 16:25:47 GMT -5
If you think that Hamilton would hit better than .240, and play a better SS than Hernandez right now (he's been damn good lately), I think you'd be quite disappointed with the results if he got the call up Wouldn't it make sense to at least find out? We know what Kiké Hernandez is at this point in his career. No upside there. Super utility guy on a good team. Career .239 avg, .729 ops. Let the young guy play and see if what he's doing in AAA translates. The fact that we know what Kiké is at this point in his career is exactly why he still has the job. Yes David Hamilton may have more "upside" (though I'd argue that's not even true, he's just an unknown, if you're talking about pure 99th percentile upside then what Kiké did in the 2021 playoffs gives him as high an upside as most on this team), but he also has considerably more downside, whereas Kiké is pretty unlikely to outright bottom out. No sense in taking that risk right now if you're the Red Sox and the offense is performing well.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 11, 2023 14:35:55 GMT -5
Yorke 2B Meidroth 3B Rafaela CF Kavadas 1B Hickey C Lugo LFScott DH Rosier RF McDonough SS Interesting
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 11, 2023 9:43:51 GMT -5
This could very well just be me not having a good feel for the tendencies of all 30 MLB teams, as it's a very anecdotal take, but it seems as if the Red Sox for a long time have been willing to look past "below average" physical profiles, especially on the international side. I know people's minds will immediately jump to Pedroia and Mookie, and a more recent hot name like Rafaela, but I think you can look across the last decade or so of the farm system and see a pretty long list of guys whose perceptions as prospects were impacted by their size (Jose Vinicio the GOAT). I know Yoiber Ruiz is 17 and may well grow, but he's the one who really made it click in my head, but even Cespedes is quite small.
Like I said, maybe I'm just ignorant of the fact that all teams are going to have some presence of diminutive players, but it certainly seems like when I look at other team's prospect lists I don't see a lot of "5's" in the height category. That also just might be a side effect of the team's seemingly long-term commitment to up-the-middle athleticism, as those types of players are generally going to be a little smaller than a corner outfield or third base type. If my observation isn't totally off base here, I think that would be a fun question the next time someone in the scouting/development side gets on the pod, but maybe that's just me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 11, 2023 9:36:25 GMT -5
Law with some more draft tidbits, mostly about Langford (calling him a 70 runner seems reaaaaaaal generous), but some good nuggets on a few high schoolers with helium. theathletic.com/4503716/2023/05/10/mlb-draft-wyatt-langford-top-pick/Kind of an aside, but the whole "Langford would be #1 if not for Crews" thing really kinda drives it home for me - why aren't people talking about Skenes as being a better prospect than those two at all? I get the risks of drafting pitchers and all that, but the dude is sitting 98-100 with an easy delivery and at least one plus-to-better secondary and good control. Crews and Langford are obviously special bats but Skenes seems way too special in his own right for it to be as foregone a conclusion as it's been made to seem lately. Law actually said in his podcast with Darren Van Riper that Skenes is the best MLB pitching prospect since Strasburg and predicts he'll go 1/1. The only caveat is that some GMs prefer position players, especially in a spot like 1/1 or 1/2 because they are more likely to stay healthy. But he saw Skenes live and said that he could be starting in MLB 1-1.5 years after the draft for all 30 teams. Apparently in the start Law saw, Skenes hit 99-100 several times with and easy motion, command and control on three pitches and he has a plus-plus FB and two plus other pitches. He also ran down the Lankford and Crews, both of whom he saw live and detailed why they may go 1/1. The podcast is free through the Athletic. Just adding onto the "several times" bit here to say that when I was working the broadcast for LSU/A&M and Skenes' start that weekend, 42 of his first 50 fastballs were 98+. It's not like he came out firing and then settled into a more "normal" range, kind of like Sproat did when I saw him last week. He maintained that velo into the 6th inning and even in the sixth was still sitting 97. It was pretty insane.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 22:23:04 GMT -5
Meidroth with a walk-off single to cap his three hit day in his AA debut. Yorke also reached base four times. Drohan roughed up in the 5th inning, but cruised up until that point. Rafaela went 0-5 and his OPS is down to .613. Meidroth's walk off hit was a line drive over the RF head. His 2nd hard hit, base hit, to RF. Yeah, Rafaela looked lost at the plate tonight. I am gonna be so unreasonable about Meidroth if he keeps hitting at this level lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 13:42:55 GMT -5
Meidroth's approach, pitch recognition, and contact skill plus Bleis's raw tools and athleticism is basically how they came up with Willie Mays. Honorable mention for an ex-prospect - David Hamilton's speed with Big Joe Davis' (fantastic that that is his name in the Ex-Players tab) everything else
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 13:18:41 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 11:34:28 GMT -5
I don't think there's any situation where I'd take a any pitcher over Crews. Like the best pitching prospect in the draft in this century was probably Strasburg, and I would not even consider taking him ahead of Crews. Crews may be my favorite college position player in the 20+ years I've been paying attention to this stuff. I would take Crews #1 as well, I certainly wasn't advocating otherwise, but I don't agree with the "would not consider" part of it. I think it should at least be a conversation, and I guess I'm just a little surprised it hasn't been. But then again 20 years ago when you were still paying attention to this stuff I was in kindergarten so maybe I just don't have an appropriate historical context of how special Crews is.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 11:02:15 GMT -5
He's always done that. Early last year the problem was velocity. His numbers against all pitch types are pretty consistent so far. So we need to figure out a way to splice him and Bleis together. I was actually think about what would be the most optimal prospect fusion combination yesterday. Yorke + Rafaela? Meidroth + Dalbec? Drohan + Mata?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 10:10:41 GMT -5
Law with some more draft tidbits, mostly about Langford (calling him a 70 runner seems reaaaaaaal generous), but some good nuggets on a few high schoolers with helium. theathletic.com/4503716/2023/05/10/mlb-draft-wyatt-langford-top-pick/Kind of an aside, but the whole "Langford would be #1 if not for Crews" thing really kinda drives it home for me - why aren't people talking about Skenes as being a better prospect than those two at all? I get the risks of drafting pitchers and all that, but the dude is sitting 98-100 with an easy delivery and at least one plus-to-better secondary and good control. Crews and Langford are obviously special bats but Skenes seems way too special in his own right for it to be as foregone a conclusion as it's been made to seem lately.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2023 9:49:49 GMT -5
Man, looking back at the draft class from this year brings back some memories, most of them bad. I remember being an irrational Bryan Hudson guy for a little while. If you'd have told me after the Jon Denney pick that the two best major leaguers from this class would've been the 19th and 26th rounders (Gabe Speier is quietly very good), I'd have probably laughed in your face. Really the mid-point of a very unfortunate stretch of drafts from 2012-2014.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2023 19:54:23 GMT -5
So, since Meidroth and Hickey aren't in the lineup tonight, I have to wonder out loud... why promote them on a Tuesday? Just seems like odd timing when there were no real injuries of any sort. Monday is the universal off day. The promotion only got announced today. They would've traveled yesterday. Right, so I’d have assumed they’d have been in the lineup tonight as it seems like there’s usually a pretty quick turnaround on that, but I guess if they just wanted to give them an extra day of rest it certainly makes sense. Guess I phrased my initial wondering wrong.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2023 19:37:45 GMT -5
So, since Meidroth and Hickey aren't in the lineup tonight, I have to wonder out loud... why promote them on a Tuesday? Just seems like odd timing when there were no real injuries of any sort.
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