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danr
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Post by danr on May 11, 2019 0:26:20 GMT -5
Seven Sox hitters are over .800 OPS and Vazquez is just below that. JBJ has a way to go. This is rather sensational for any team. Even though he hasn't had a hit in a while, Chavis still is the OPS leader.
The Sox bullpen is better than it was last year.
This is a very good team that I think will finish first again.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 8, 2019 22:20:54 GMT -5
That play by JBJ was basically a 2 game swing in the standings. Go from demoralizing walk off loss, to an uplifting win that could be a spring board going forward, and a 500 record isntead of losing a series to the lowly birds and 2 games below 500. This is why I don't really care what JBJ hits/
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danr
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Post by danr on May 7, 2019 22:55:16 GMT -5
I am beginning to like this team a lot. Imagine what it will be like when JBJ gets hot, as he almost certainly will. Have to give credit to the front office for the bullpen.
The most interesting question is whether pitchers will figure out Chavis, and if they do, if he can adjust.. II he keeps hitting this team might top last year's in hitting.
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danr
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Post by danr on Mar 14, 2019 19:42:09 GMT -5
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 27, 2019 3:11:22 GMT -5
Rob Bradford had a scary thought. Perhaps with Arenado locked up, and if Rendon reups with Washington, it's possible the Yankees might go after Bogaerts. I really hope the Sox find a way to keep Bogaerts, Sale, and Betts while hanging onto JDM. Henry indicated that signing all 3 of Betts, Sale, and Bogaerts was unlikely, and in the pecking order Bogaerts is probably the 3rd toughest of the 3 to replace - particularly if Sale is reasonably healthy. This is absurd. Is John Henry going to go broke by extending all three? The Sox have no obvious replacements for any of them in the minors. The Sox have the core of a dynasty that could dominate for several more years. Who would not want to be the owner of a team that did that, especially denying the Yankees, and all their trades and spending? It's a no brainer. John Henry already is the greatest of all Red Sox owners. He's not about to give that up.
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 23, 2019 22:47:29 GMT -5
Can’t imagine this is true, but if it is... yikes. Does Kimbrel really think he’d get a bigger deal after being a year older and having not faced MLB hitters in 18 months?Greed and ego are very destructive. How much money does he need?
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 1, 2019 18:32:27 GMT -5
It may have been discussed earlier (I have not been on the board much recently) but I think the greatest improvement that could be made to the Sox would be a trade for Realmuto. I would not be surprised if the Sox were lurking on this right now. This feels like a Dombrowski move. Of course, some of the best minor leaguers would have to be involved but since none, except Chavis, are ranked in anyone's top 100, what's to lose? I am not about to propose a specific deal. It probably would have to involve a mix of minor and major league players. The Sox have no good catcher prospects in the minors. Realmuto is cheap and under control for a couple of years. He would significantly improve the offense and would be no slouch on defense. He is exactly in his peak years. Don't you think that a package including our best minor leaguers (e.g., Chavis, Casas, Hernandez) and our expendable major leaguers (e.g., Swihart) wouldn't be enough? Or are you proposing that we trade Beni or Devers? My point was that this probably is the best thing the Sox could do to improve the team, not that it was likely to happen. To make a wild guess of what a trade might look like, I just looked at the Miami hitting and pitching stats. They are terrible and need help everywhere.They could use a trade that brings them a big haul of promising players. Certainly any trade with the Sox would include Vazquez, maybe Swihart - both of whom probably will outhit most of the players they now have. Then add a combination of upper and lower level Sox minor leaguers who are promising and look like future major leaguers - maybe not stars - but better than what Miami has now. That's my best guess. I agree that such a trade is improbable, but not entirely impossible.
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 1, 2019 2:56:36 GMT -5
It may have been discussed earlier (I have not been on the board much recently) but I think the greatest improvement that could be made to the Sox would be a trade for Realmuto. I would not be surprised if the Sox were lurking on this right now. This feels like a Dombrowski move. Of course, some of the best minor leaguers would have to be involved but since none, except Chavis, are ranked in anyone's top 100, what's to lose? I am not about to propose a specific deal. It probably would have to involve a mix of minor and major league players.
The Sox have no good catcher prospects in the minors. Realmuto is cheap and under control for a couple of years. He would significantly improve the offense and would be no slouch on defense. He is exactly in his peak years.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jan 26, 2019 3:22:01 GMT -5
In the projections of rosters in 2019 the starters are listed as Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and Rodriguez, which will be one of the best rotations in baseball. However, there also are listed as piggyback starters, Johnson and Velazquez. Piggyback starters are used in the minors to limit the innings pitched by starters as well as to give other prospects more innings. However, what is it doing in the major league projections? Maybe I missed an explanation.
They obviously would be the first replacements for any of the starters who were injured, or faltered, but that is different.
As the projections are set up, there would be 13 pitchers and 13 position players, when only 25 can be on the roster.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jan 26, 2019 3:05:18 GMT -5
It is not a good idea to assume that an obviously thin position will not become a major problem during the season. In recent years we saw it in the outfield and at 3b. It's like the old adage that the ball will find an inexperienced player. The bullpen is an obviously thin position. If it is not strengthened, it well might become a significant problem.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2018 12:42:02 GMT -5
I guess I'll be the first to write that the MFYs just whiffed on the two best FA SPs, and best by a fair margin.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 16, 2018 19:41:47 GMT -5
I learned long ago when I was a journalist that one should never write that something never had happened because someone would find that it had. That idea did occur to me when I wrote the above but I thought I had made a detailed search!
Point well made.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 16, 2018 18:45:30 GMT -5
Dalbec struck out a lot in college. He probably always will strike out a lot. However, I can't find any Red Sox minor leaguer in the past 25 years who hit 32 HRs at A+ and AA with an OPS above .900 at A+ and above .800 at AA. Bryce Brentz hit 30 between A and A+ but I could not find anyone else very close. I would hesitate before trading him, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially if he was part of a deal that brought a front line player or pitcher. He is 23 and maybe two seasons from the majors.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 10, 2018 19:22:39 GMT -5
Baseball reference includes Castillo's salary in its list. I thought the reason the Sox outrighted him to Pawtucket was to get that salary off the cap list. Am I wrong?
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 10, 2018 18:06:09 GMT -5
You are right. I just looked up the salaries on baseballreference.com and they have the 2019 salaries at $210 million. That includes $60 million in estimates of arb results, etc., which mean it could be higher.
In this case, they should sign Eovaldi and a closer, if not Kimbrel.
I wouldn't go near Harper or Machado. I don't think either will prove to be worth what rumors say they are likely to get paid.
They shouldn't trade any top tier minor league talent for a year's rental of Goldy.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 10, 2018 16:47:44 GMT -5
The Sox do not appear to have any minor leaguers in the class of Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ or JDM, all of whom could be gone in two years. They also aren't likely to get any in next year's draft. Chavis and Dalbec seem to have the most promise of anyone in the upper minors but there are questions about both of them. Unless the Sox trade some of their very promising pitchers - not a good idea - trades for top talent seem unlikely.
The only real asset the Sox have for acquiring, or keeping, top talent is money. I think they should stay under the limit this year so that they can go over it next year without an enormous penalty. They can keep this year's team nearly intact for next year. After that, all bets are off, pun intended.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 4, 2018 0:24:19 GMT -5
Isn't 28 when the decline usually hits? I wasn't thinking he'd turn Nomar, I was thinking he'd turn into Jeter, who became a short stop who had no range outside of his first step in either hole to his left or right. No. 28 is the average age of when players have their best seasons. That means some have it earlier and some later. Physically, players start to decline in their early 30s but the rate of decline varies considerably. Players who are natural athletes and keep in good shape are likely to age more slowly.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 31, 2018 21:01:51 GMT -5
On average, baseball players have their best seasons around the age of 28. Generally declines begin in the early 30s. However, the great players, if they don't get injured, perform well into their late 30s. This said, the odds are better that Betts gets better, rather than regressing. The same is true for Bogaerts and Benintendi. JBJ is 30 but he is a late developer. He is such a great athlete that I think his decline will be delayed. He actually may be about to have his peak year. Therefore, I would do everything I could to keep this foursome. JBJ peaked in 2016. Steady decline since We have been writing about JBJ as a 30-year old. I looked up his record on Baseball Reference only to discover that he is 28. He should have had his best season this year! However, in the second half of this season he may have done that. He was a horrible hitter in the first half but quite a good one in the second half, and, especially, in the post season. Some of his stats this year were better than 2017, especially his steals and 2Bs. His defense was sensational. I think he is the best defensive CF in MLB and for that reason I would keep him on the team. He is a true defensive weapon and maybe his second half offense will continue into next season.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 31, 2018 17:02:56 GMT -5
On average, baseball players have their best seasons around the age of 28. Generally declines begin in the early 30s. However, the great players, if they don't get injured, perform well into their late 30s. This said, the odds are better that Betts gets better, rather than regressing. The same is true for Bogaerts and Benintendi. JBJ is 30 but he is a late developer. He is such a great athlete that I think his decline will be delayed. He actually may be about to have his peak year.
Therefore, I would do everything I could to keep this foursome.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 31, 2018 14:10:05 GMT -5
Consider this. Porcello has only one more year on his current contract. What kind of value does he have now when another team could only be guaranteed one season out of him? Would it be better for the Sox to get that season, which probably will be good, and then make a QO to him that most likely will be less than he is making now? If he signs with another team the Sox get a draft pick. I think the Sox come out better off than if they traded him this off season.
In addition, as pointed out above, most of the Sox starters have various kinds of health issues. Many have Wright in the rotation when we don't know if that knee will hold up. The same question mark is over Pedroia.
I am in favor of signing Eovaldi even with his health history. He is one of the two youngest good SP free agents.
I also would like Kimbrell, Kelly and Pearce resigned.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 28, 2018 23:26:01 GMT -5
Like ancientsoxfogey I have been a Sox fan since the 1950s. I didn't have a father around and my next door neighbor sort of adopted me. He was a Yankee fan, the son of a former congressman who took him into the 1927 Yankee locker room and got all the Yankees to sign a baseball for him, which he still had. We lived in Western New York, south of Buffalo, and listened to Yankee games on the radio. I became a Red Sox fan because of Ted Williams, whose book on hitting I read, and because we needed something to argue about. I went to Baltimore to go to college, and while working for UPI there I covered every home game of the Orioles when the Sox were in town. I made my brother a Red Sox fan and he had two sons, each of whom have had two sons and they are all Red Sox fans. One of my grand nephews was in Boston this year to visit colleges and attended the last game of the season at Fenway. While 2004 cannot be topped for sheer emotional satisfaction, this has been the best Red Sox team of my lifetime. I'm still very vigorous and spending a great deal of time as a leader in the Oregon Democratic Party. I was out canvassing in a thunderstorm this afternoon, but cut it short to get home to watch the game tonight. It was fantastic! This is a team for the ages.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 21, 2018 20:03:25 GMT -5
In 2019, the Sox could have essentially the same team they have this year. There only are three must signings I believe the Sox should do, Kimbrel, Pearce and Eovaldi. They should consider re-signing Kelly but not Pomeranz or Kinsler. I do not believe that Price will opt out of his contract. No one is going to pay him more than the Sox.
I don't see anyone from the minors playing a significant role with the big club in 2019. However, in 2020 there could be a number of position players and pitchers quite close to the majors. That will be a major factor in what the Sox do with some of their regulars who can be FA's in 2020.
The Sox starting rotation next year could be Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, Price and Eovaldi. Backup starters and long RPs would be Wright, Velazquez and Johnson. There is going to be considerable competition for the other RP positions, assuming Thornburg and Smith are healthy. There are only two, based on this year's performances, who should be locks, Brasier and Barnes.
The starting lineup could be better than this year's if Pedroia makes it back and performs well. I have no idea if that is likely. The rest of the lineup should be unchanged but with Devers getting more action at 3B. I would like to see Vazquez get more starts at catcher.
I suspect something will happen with Swihart during the off season. He really doesn't have a place on this team.
It will be fascinating to see Betts at 2B in the WS, if it happens.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 18, 2018 23:47:15 GMT -5
Cora is one of the best managers I have ever seen. Most managers would have had Eovaldi come out in the 9th. He had been dominant. However, Kimbrel needed to finish the game to be worth a damn in the WS. It was a gutsy move and Cora would have been eviscerated if Kimbrel had blown the game. Cora was going for the prize and took the risk. That is real leadership, something we currently are not used to seeing. Nothing can top 2004 for me because I have been a Sox fan since the 1950s, but this is the best team the Sox have had in my lifetime, maybe the best ever.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 18, 2018 1:10:12 GMT -5
Kimbrel did not have his best stuff nor did he have his best command. Somehow he managed to pitch two innings against the second best team in baseball, hold them to one run, and save the game. Never before had he pitched a two-inning save. It seems reasonably likely that the Sox will be in the series and Kimbrel will be a critical factor. If he does well, I bet the Sox will try to resign him. At the minimum they will give him the QO. I think they will do that in any case.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 17, 2018 5:04:32 GMT -5
The signing price of Eovaldi is rising fast..... I try to sign him in the exclusive window. Then I trade Porcello, who should fetch a very solid price. Sale, Eovaldi, E-Rod, Wright, and Price with Johnson and Velasquez is a hell of a rotation.
Rolling back the clock ... when the trade happened I called him the best pitcher available on the market, despite his less-than-great ERA. It's pretty clear now that that was the case. But the important point is that I actually didn't say that. Statcast said that (specifically, xwOBA) and I just quoted it. Admittedly, I dug further and decided he was even better than his xwOBA, but anyone could have reached the conclusion that he was the best guy to get just by looking at the xwOBA leaderboard.
The same metric said that Barnes and Brasier were plenty good enough to be the setup guys on a WS champ.
That might be a good rotation but you assume that Erod and Wright will be healthy. That is a very risky assumption. I think it would be crazy to trade Porcello until those two proved they were healthy. Johnson and Velasquez are decent pitchers but I wouldn't want to have to start either against Houston in the post season.
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