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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 24, 2019 22:00:44 GMT -5
It is interesting that the Cubs have the same run differential as the Cardinals, +104, but are out of the race and are five games behind the Brewers that have a 0 run differential. They also have lost seven in a row.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 24, 2019 21:51:02 GMT -5
Ugly game but maybe Rodriguez wins his 19th with a chance to win 20. That would be a nice finish to this very disappointing season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 24, 2019 21:46:58 GMT -5
the Benintendi conundrum ? is there a trade out there that is talent level neutral, addresses a team need and allows us to sign Mookie to a strong extension. he is arb eligible this year. likely could command 4-5 million. very valuable, but will get more expensive. Does another team value his skill set adequately at this point ? i would llsten, that's for sure. Benintendi was rushed to the majors and it makes sense that he would have a regression. I think it would be a serious mistake to give up on him now. He is inexpensive and whatever the Sox pay him will not be a factor in whether Betts gets signed. For whatever it is worth, which isn't much, I think he will have a much better season next year. Betts has made it very clear that he wants the biggest contract he can get. That may be more than the Sox can - or should - pay. If I were in charge I would make a really good offer to him, an offer that I could justify, based on his performance and future prospects. I don't know what the number is but it is pretty big, in dollars and years. If it meant I had to jettison some salaries to do it, I would do it, but I wouldn't do that until he accepted the offer. He, Bogaerts, Devers, probably Vazquez and maybe Beniintendi, are the nucleus of the team for the next few years. I love JD Martinez but if he opts out of his contract it will not be as serious a loss as Betts would be. Chavis or Dalbec might be reasonable replacements, maybe not next year, but more likely in the following years. The big problem for the Sox, which probably will keep them from the post-season next year, is the starting pitching. They don't have the money to sign a top FA starter. They don't have any minor leaguers ready to step up. They could sign a 4th or 5th starter but that won't help if Sale and Price break down again, which is more likely than not.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2019 22:53:04 GMT -5
I personally think the Red Sox will explore trading Price and JDM (who I will bet does not opt-out), but not Mookie. I would be all for trading Price if the Sox could find any team that would take him and his contract. However, I don't think there is such a team. JDM is a very important member of this team beyond his hitting. He has had a very positive impact on other players. His dedication to the art of hitting has helped other players. He is one of the last players I would trade.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2019 9:17:06 GMT -5
The article focuses on hitting and pitching. As Costpet points out, there is a lot more to becoming a major league player. He is right, baseball is the hardest sport to learn and to play well. It requires enormous amounts of practice and playing. It requires a huge amount of repetition and that requirement continues throughout a player's career. Think of Dustin Pedroia and his constant routine of practicing.
Technology certainly can help to improve a player's skills but it is no substitute to being on the field, where the unexpected happens all the time and only a whole lot of repetition on the field can prepare a player for the unexpected.
The article tries to make the point that good players in the minors are playing against players of lesser skills and that somehow this negatively impacts their development. The flaw in this argument is the assumption that baseball is a one-on-one sport. To a fair degree it is that between the pitcher and the hitter but the pitcher depends on fielders most of the time. Fielding skills develop regardless of the quality of the hitters. The ball in motion is completely independent of the skill of the hitter.
So, yes, we need the minor leagues.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 12, 2019 23:56:03 GMT -5
I meant to write players who would be regulars with the Sox in place of the players acquired. Of your list, only Margot, Buttrey and Beeks have any significant MLB experience. Margot has been mediocre and not as good as JBJ. Buttrey has a high ERA but could have been in the Sox BP. Beeks has been the best performer but where would the Sox have been in 2018 without Eovaldi? The rest have not yet proven to be MLB players. Margot has been better than JBJ this year and will probably only widen that gap going forward. The Red Sox have also been relying on non-outfielders as their fourth outfielder for the past two seasons, so even if Margot isn't better than JBJ, he would certainly have been useful on the roster. Honestly just a little weird to look at all the holes on this roster and conclude that Dombrowski couldn't possibly have spent his resources any better. I disagree. Margot is not in the same league, defensively, as JBJ. JBJ's assets to the Sox are his defense and his arm. Those make him enormously valuable to a team that doesn't need another strong hitter. JBJ is one of the greatest defensive CFs the Sox ever have had. Margot never could have been a starting CF for the Sox.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 12, 2019 23:43:14 GMT -5
I think it is totally insane to consider trading Betts. Players like him only come along once in a generation. Law is correct. The Sox should spend whatever it takes to keep him.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 12, 2019 23:38:42 GMT -5
When I was a kid I put together complete sets of the TOPPs baseball cards for 1957 and 1958. Ted Williams was number 1 in 1957. I had multiple copies of the Williams card and sold one for the magnificent price of $1.00. I believe Mickey Vernon was the 1B for the Washington Senators. After I went to college my mother moved my stuff, including my TOPPs cards, to the basement and when there was a storm the basement flooded and my cards were destroyed..
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 12, 2019 10:04:21 GMT -5
Off the top of my head: Margot, Buttrey, Logan Allen, Shaun Anderson, Beeks, and Dubon are all players who would be on the team right now and have some upside. The Basabes, Kopech, Nogosek, and Espinal all could help in the future. I would have Kopech ranked 2nd if he were still in the system. That's not a commentary on the trades those players were involved in, as the got value when they needed to and won because of it. He got talent back! But he has traded a fair amount of talent, and the 2019 team us weaker because of it. The mediocre 2019 team is worth the 2016 to 2018 run, but also invites fair questions as to whether he was the right guy going forward. I meant to write players who would be regulars with the Sox in place of the players acquired. Of your list, only Margot, Buttrey and Beeks have any significant MLB experience. Margot has been mediocre and not as good as JBJ. Buttrey has a high ERA but could have been in the Sox BP. Beeks has been the best performer but where would the Sox have been in 2018 without Eovaldi? The rest have not yet proven to be MLB players.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 12, 2019 2:14:16 GMT -5
My thoughts on Dombrowski.
First, it is a myth that he "torched" the Sox minor league system. Tell me one player he traded, other than, possibly, Moncada, who would be playing for the Sox now, or in the future. He traded two highly ranked pitchers, Espinoza and Kopech, but both wound up with TJ surgery, Espinoza twice. The Pomeranz trade wasn't a great trade but he did have one decent season. Sale helped to win a WS. The Thornburg trade was a bust but it also didn't harm the Sox.
Second, the truth of the matter is that the Sox farm system has not been strong for a while. The Sox have not been very good in the draft - although last year's looks pretty good. This year's maybe not so much. Compare what the Yankees have done in the draft when their position has been similar to the Sox.
Third, Dombrowski's huge mistake was similar to one made several years ago by a former GM when he did not provide for a good OF. Dombrowski did not get a closer for the team, or a good set up man, to replace the two who left. He also did not provide for adequate starting pitching because the assumption was made that the team had what it needed. There was plenty of evidence that this was a huge risk. In addition, no effort was made to replace Pedroia even though it was obvious he never was going to be a regular again, if he played at all.
Fourth he should not have signed Sale to that extension. It is real head scratcher that he signed an extension prior to this season that doesn't kick in until next year. Given Sale's late season issues that were known, this extension was malpractice.
Fifth, the team desperately needed help at the trade deadline and he punted. Again, malpractice.
My conclusion: He deserved to be fired. This is the Red Sox, one of the greatest professional sports organizations in history, with a fan base that is multi-generational. The team ownership and management have a duty to this tradition and this fan base to keep this team competitive. Dombrowski failed this year and had to be held accountable.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2019 22:34:10 GMT -5
Why is it that the MFYs have had such a productive farm system and the Sox have not? I mean by this that the Yankees have been able to make key trades, using some of their minor leaguers, but have not destroyed their system. The Yankees usually draft at the bottom of the pack but they manage to get outstanding players. I am a little suspicious of the quality of the Sox drafting team and have been for quite a few years.
I think Dombrowski has done a very good job with the Sox and will not be fired. He should have strengthened the BP during the offseason but it probably would not have made much of a difference. The starting pitching is horrible, but that could not have been anticipated and it is not Dombrowski's fault. His drafts seem to be better than some that preceded him, but the scouting system of the Sox probably should be revamped.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 12, 2019 23:06:41 GMT -5
Given that ERAs for RPs can be very deceptive, compare the ERAs of the Cleveland RPs in tonight's game with those of the Sox RPs and where Cleveland is in the standings compared to the Sox. I think the entire pitching staff needs rebuilding. I don't know how that can be done but it's not going to be any better next year unless some drastic changes are made.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2019 1:31:45 GMT -5
Browning with his first save tonight. His promotion was a long time coming, so it must feel nice. Why is he not ranked in the top 60?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2019 23:33:27 GMT -5
Minor complaint: Holt should be in the OF with Travis at 1B. 1B Travis LF Benintendi CF Betts RF Holt Seems a lot better than: 1B Holt LF Travis CF Benintendi RF Betts Especially at Yankee Stadium. Chairs on the Titanic.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 2, 2019 0:28:51 GMT -5
The Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored. If the pitching had been reasonably strong, the Sox would be in first place.
It was not hard to see that the Sox had taken a big risk in the off season by not strengthening the bullpen. What almost none of us expected was that the starting pitching would turn out to be so bad. That is the primary reason the Sox are having the season they are. I don't think that can be blamed on anyone. No one anticipated that Sale and Porcello would suck the way they have. Everone thought Eovaldi would be a major contributor. Price has been very good at times but not all the time.
Porcello is gone after this year. We don't yet know if Eovaldi is going to be a major contributor. Since there are no starting pitchers in the minors of great caliber close to the majors, the Sox have a huge problem. They have to rebuild most of the entire pitching staff, both starters and relievers, but especially starters. I don't know how that can be accomplished in the next year. We may be facing a couple more seasons of less than championship baseball.
For that not to be the case, the Sox have to retain their star players and acquire by trade, or FA signings, some significantly better pitchers than they have now. Fortunately, they will have salary relief in the next year with Porcello gone and the fst guy off the books. That's bout $40 million right there. They also will have some other players departing, providing more salary relief.
They have to resign Betts, but he already is art $20 million so whatever increase they have to package will not significantly impact available funds. I don't think they have to spend any money on additional position players. Chavis, Holt, or Marco Hernandez can play 2nd. Chavis or Sam Travis can play first. So almost all of their available funds can be spent on pitching, either pitchers they acquire by trade, or by FA signings. That's where they should focus.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 29, 2019 18:33:20 GMT -5
The conversation about Chavis has been very interesting and illuminating. I am not picking sides because I haven't been able to see him play much this year. Maybe he can't fix his swing. He wouldn't be the first player to be unable to fix a serious problem. However, if he does, he could be awesome. He certainly has big power. While he can play 2B, unless he improves his defense I cant see him being the regular there. I am a strong believer is having excellent up the middle defense. That wins a lot of games. In comparing Dalbec and Chavis, keep in mind that Dalbec is a year older than Chavis and he isn't hitting as well in Portland as Chavis did two years ago. I still am a believer that he will hit better but until he does, I don't see how it can be argued he is better than Chavis, or will be. I am amused by the explosion of the trade discussion based on a couple of very thin rumors. Because Eovaldi is not looking like the pitcher of the same name from last year, I certainly wouldn't bet against a substantive trade. However,I doubt Dalbec will be in it. If he improves a little - and so does Chavis, he could be a key player in a trade for a needed SP after the season. Dalbec is only 1 month older than Chavis. My bad. I looked at the ages listed in the player profiles on this site but not at the birthdays! This site still has Chavis as 23. My point still stands, just not as tall...
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 29, 2019 12:52:16 GMT -5
The conversation about Chavis has been very interesting and illuminating. I am not picking sides because I haven't been able to see him play much this year. Maybe he can't fix his swing. He wouldn't be the first player to be unable to fix a serious problem. However, if he does, he could be awesome. He certainly has big power. While he can play 2B, unless he improves his defense I cant see him being the regular there. I am a strong believer is having excellent up the middle defense. That wins a lot of games.
In comparing Dalbec and Chavis, keep in mind that Dalbec is a year older than Chavis and he isn't hitting as well in Portland as Chavis did two years ago. I still am a believer that he will hit better but until he does, I don't see how it can be argued he is better than Chavis, or will be.
I am amused by the explosion of the trade discussion based on a couple of very thin rumors. Because Eovaldi is not looking like the pitcher of the same name from last year, I certainly wouldn't bet against a substantive trade. However,I doubt Dalbec will be in it. If he improves a little - and so does Chavis, he could be a key player in a trade for a needed SP after the season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2019 16:58:56 GMT -5
He is at 249.1 innings now. He would have to pitch 90 innings for the Sox. He could make 14 starts. He would have to average about 6.5 inningds per start. This season he has averaged a little less than 6 innings per start.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 10, 2019 0:59:53 GMT -5
I think the trade value of Dalbec and Hernandez already has declined. Dalbec is not hitting well and not hitting HRs like he has previously. Hernandez surprises people when he gets through an inning without walking the park. Major improvement has to occur with both of these players for them to have major trade value.
I am somewhat relieved by their present troubles because I want them to develop with the Sox. I think both can be really good eventually and I would hate to see either traded for a rental.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2019 0:02:10 GMT -5
I did a little research on him during the draft and I thought he looked pretty promising. He was a terrific hitter in college and he has started out hitting about the same. He and Davis both have power but he might be a better hitter.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 1, 2019 5:30:35 GMT -5
The MFYs are a better team than they were last year. They made some excellent off-season acquisitions and now have more good players than positions. In contrast, the Sox are not a better team than last year's. They made no significant acquisitions. They are weaker in the bullpen as this series so definitely demonstrated and they are weaker in both the infield and the outfield. The fact that some key players are not doing as well as last year also has hurt the team this year.
Something is seriously wrong with Betts and Benintendi. The closer by committee isn't working. The bullpen is a wreck. This is not a great team now and I doubt there is much that can be done at this point to fix it.
This is something that many foresaw, except for Sox management. They are to blame for this situation.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2019 23:56:12 GMT -5
Perhaps they give him another year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's converted to a reliever at some point, but even then, you can't constantly walk guys. I mean we're not talking somebody here with spotty control who might walk 4 - 4.5/9. We're talking a guy who's going to walk far more than that. Hernandez was very good in the 1st, got ahead of guys and struck out all three guys he saw on 1-2 counts. I think he could step in to a mlb relief role fairly quickly, but as someone else said during the game "What's the point?". Red Sox are not doing much right now, so to convert a starter into a reliever to help this year's team is kind of a waste. I don't have much hope for him finding his control at this point, but there's not much value into turning him into a reliever this year so he might as well continue to start in the minors and see if he can figure something out. Seven of his nine outs were Ks. He hit 98. Even with the increasing number of hard throwers, a lefty who can hit 98 still is pretty rare. He is very young and doesn't have a lot of baseball experience. I think it would be wise for the Sox to let him pitch in the minors for a while, a year or two, with some good coaching, to see if he can develop the control and command. If he does, he could be another Sale. That's worth waiting for.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2019 23:44:08 GMT -5
Has anyone seen Logan Browning pitch this season? His stats are impressive, more impressive than one would expect from reading the scouting report.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2019 1:53:48 GMT -5
It seems to be commonly believed that Dombrowski stripped the Sox minor leagues of so many good prospects that there aren't enough left to help the team now. However, can anyone name a single player traded, aside, possibly, of Travis Shaw, who could be a starting position player for this team, or would be ready to call up? I can't think of any. Two of the best prospects traded have had Tommy John surgeries, Espinoza now with two.
The real problem with the Sox minor league system is that over several years the Sox drafted very poorly. The two drafts prior to 2011 were terrible. 2011 was a bonanza, but then 2012 and 2013 were close to complete whiffs. Since 2014, the drafts look better, especially the last two years, but most of the promising players still are in the low minors.
Somehow the MFYs, who usually draft close to the same position as the Sox, seem to have done much better in the drafts of the last several years. Tampa Bay the same.
There is a certain irony in all this. The previous management made a whole bunch of huge mistakes in trades, resigning playrs (Lester) and drafting, but the results of some of those mistakes only now are really apparent, and the current management gets heat for that.
The only trade of consequence that Dombrowski made that obviously was a mistake, and many on this board said so at the time, was the Travis Shaw trade. It was by no means certain that Shaw was going to develop the way he did - although now he seems to have stalled - but it still was a lopsided trade that should not have been made, given that there was no ready alternative to that fat guy at 3B. However, everyone is entitled to make mistakes and, overall, until this year, Dombrowski had made only this one.
The decision to go with a closer by committee and not add an impact RP to the bullpen now is really showing to be a mistake. I am not saying they should have resigned Kimbrell. I think the Cubs will regret their deal. There were other possibilities that were not pursued, probably because of the salary cap problem. They made a decision not to exceed the cap to try to put the Sox in a better drafting position going forward. That is a rational decision that may pay dividends in the future, but maybe not this year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 9, 2019 0:55:13 GMT -5
Part of what is going on is the best teams really want to beat the Sox. They up their game. And the Sox seem to be playing tight. Most of the games have been close though. I still think the Sox are an extremely talented team. The kind of team that could win 30 of 35. Will they ? I'm not confident. It would not be surprising though. I think they are the best team in Major
League Baseball. I think you put your finger on it. This team is far more tense than last year's. It makes sense. After last year's start the team was loose and happy. After this year's start the tea, has been tense and not so happy.
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