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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 10:42:30 GMT -5
In addition to Uehara's insane stats, I had not realized that Breslow was having such a great season. (my vehicle inspection sticker is expired, so I can only drive into MA at night, and I put first priority in going to see Owens, being in the DC area). Looking back at the game log, I see he gave up 8 runs (6ER) in Jun, of which 7 were in 3 games, where as Tazawa's runs where more evenly spread by month. My impression of 07 was that the great bullpen, including the B relievers, enabled Pap to enter the post-season fresh, contributing to the thrilling 2IP (or even 1+) saves. Okajima was not as fresh, finally tiring in the very last game. This year, we have several rookies, guys coming off injuries, and non-fulltime RPs. I am hoping that fans will show strong support despite inconsistent results for the B-team RPs, whose role it to sacrifice their arms, so that Uehara and perhaps Breslow will be fresh in crunch time.
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Post by jchang on Sept 5, 2013 22:26:50 GMT -5
I meant Owens, but he should probably rest. And Salem still won.
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Post by jchang on Sept 5, 2013 20:20:47 GMT -5
Salem could use a certain ace pitcher for playoffs. oh well.
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Post by jchang on Sept 5, 2013 20:19:14 GMT -5
OK, thanks, I should have said the wording did not favor instead of disqualify. Basically, the value of going from grade 5 to 6 can be considered in relation with 2 to 4. Anyways, I have Owens for POY.
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Post by jchang on Sept 5, 2013 12:33:26 GMT -5
Lackey just wants a little run support. 20 runs not necessary. But greater than zero.
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Post by jchang on Sept 5, 2013 10:23:34 GMT -5
the exact wording, "becomes a significant prospect after previously being considered less than such" seems to disqualify Owens, who was already a high prospect in a strong system, and we already knew from 2012 that he had high upside. He is currently listed as grade 6 - above average/1st div, but I am inclined to think he is 6.5, as in 50-50 between above average and all-star, so the rise from grade 5 to 6.5 is very strong, even though it was only good for 6 spots in the ranks?
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Post by jchang on Sept 4, 2013 21:09:39 GMT -5
agh!!!, no chance Ortiz will hit for cycle with this last at bat.
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Post by jchang on Sept 4, 2013 21:03:55 GMT -5
sac bunt time! (WMB on third, 1 out) I'm watching on MLB.tv, delayed by about 2 pitches,
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Post by jchang on Sept 3, 2013 22:42:17 GMT -5
1 Xander Bogaerts 2 Henry Owens 3 Jackie Bradley Jr. 4 Garin Cecchini 5 Allen Webster 6 Anthony Ranaudo 7 Matt Barnes 8 Mookie Betts 9 Blake Swihart 10 Trey Ball
11 Brandon Workman 12 Christian Vazquez 13 Drake Britton 14 Teddy Stankiewicz 15 Brian Johnson 16 Bryce Brentz 17 Manuel Margot 18 Ty Buttrey 19 Luis Diaz 20 Michael Almanzar
21 Alex Hassan 22 Deven Marrero 23 Jon Denney 24 Alex Wilson 25 Rafael Devers 26 Wendell Rijo 27 Jamie Callahan 28 Sean Coyle 29 Keury De La Cruz 30 Henry Ramos
31 Dan Butler 32 Cody Kukuk 33 Sergio Gomez 34 Simon Mercedes 35 Daniel McGrath 36 Brock Huntzinger 37 Jeremy Hazelbaker 38 Myles Smith 39 Bryan Hudson 40 David Chester
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Post by jchang on Sept 2, 2013 13:22:21 GMT -5
Does sabermetrics really say sac bunt with runners on 1b and 2b is bad?
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Post by jchang on Sept 1, 2013 22:03:02 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind is that with the Rays mini-slump, this makes the second wild-card slot open, including two teams that could have been effectively out of it, MFY and Os, both of whom now will have something to play for. And we play both of them twice.
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Post by jchang on Sept 1, 2013 16:58:50 GMT -5
I had wondered about it, onbase and philsbosox came out and said it. Owens has such swing and miss stuff, why does he bother with balls? But it does seem like he is working on the tools of trade, hitting the corners, getting a batter to chase on 2 strikes. But if he does let base runners on, he will tighten down to finish the inning. The good thing about minors leagues is development is more important than winning or great stats, which Owens does have, just perplexing - high SO and BB. Eric: is the raw data available? I am not a baseball stats person, but I do database talks/demos all the time. It would be really nice to have the raw pitch by pitch data, if it is not too expensive. BTW, does any one know the GIDP % in general, by pitcher, batter, with % relative to eligible situations - runner on 1st. I would like to exclude to luck oriented double-off or not batter's fault FO + out at home.
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Post by jchang on Aug 31, 2013 16:04:54 GMT -5
is the data available in sufficient detail to determine (non-intentional) walks given with runners on 2nd or 3rd, 1st empty, to a strong batter? or is this statistically insignificant?
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Post by jchang on Aug 31, 2013 13:41:01 GMT -5
then again, GCL coaches do not get hate mail? or so I hope
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Post by jchang on Aug 31, 2013 13:12:15 GMT -5
I wonder how many GCL coaches have high blood pressure. I noticed the long pause too, never a good thing when your not batting
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Post by jchang on Aug 30, 2013 21:25:22 GMT -5
Considering the difficulty other recent high prospects have had on reaching Portland, Barnes 2013 season is a success.
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Post by jchang on Aug 30, 2013 20:32:31 GMT -5
I see your point, but I have been annoying people all my life and am too old to change now. So I will cite these grounds. The Prospect Scouting Scale for pitchers says Grade 5 is a #4/#5 starter or second tier closer. Technically there is an omission as first division closer is grade 6 and reliable reliever is grade 4. Presumably a first division setup man is better than "reliable RP" and hence should slot in at grade 5. The page for Workman cites: "Projects as an 8th inning reliever or back end starter", not ceiling of. Regardless of whether I fully agree with this assessment, which I do, that defines a grade of 5.
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Post by jchang on Aug 30, 2013 13:07:08 GMT -5
I am not convinced that Owens stuff will not play in the big leagues. There are a number of 24+ year olds in AA with polished repertoire, but not quite big league stuff (ok, most of these are in AAA). These guys would also be posting elite numbers in AA then. But Owens is just 21, his stuff is not fully polished, and he is not at full strength age wise. So there is every reason to believe he will become a better pitcher than he is now, regardless of whether this manifests in velocity, control or something else. I also admit that I did not think his stuff at the beginning of the season would work well in AA, hence I suggested he stay the full year in A+ and even the beginning of next year until he was stronger. Well Owens blew my theory of how he would do in AA. I do not have stronger position in exactly how our top pitching prospects (Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo and Owens) should be ranked. All have strong points and all currently have deficiencies. That's why none are grade 7. However, watching Owens is so fascinating that I try to catch every game in the DC area. Too bad Portland does not play many down here.
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Post by jchang on Aug 30, 2013 12:08:14 GMT -5
Glad others are high on Owens without doubts. I am still lobbying for Workman to grade 5 instead of 4. If he is not going to be a backend starter, then he is still a high leverage reliever.
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Post by jchang on Aug 29, 2013 19:04:26 GMT -5
so long as walks + hits per IP is elite, it doesn't matter if you get it the hard way. For a pitch who can get that many swing and miss, I imagine there will be many poor contacts as well, so low BABIP is not a fluke after 129.1 innings = 388 outs - 161 SO for 227 outs on BABIP vs 78 hits. I think his current grade of 6 - above average, is fair, the but the upside of 7 is still possible.
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Post by jchang on Aug 29, 2013 12:23:19 GMT -5
I think Owens has made excellent progress over the last 2 years. In beginning 2012, Owens would quickly get 9 outs, then get hit in the 4th or 5th inning. Towards the end of 2012, he showed better ability to get through 5 innings. Over the 22 starts (& 1 non-start?) he average 4.5 inning per game. His overall stats for 2012 were good but not special, except for the insane SO/9. However, if you consider his pattern of quick outs until getting hit in the last inning, there was reason to be hopeful. 2013 was great for Owens. Over 25 games, an average of 5.2 innings per game. I don't think the number of off games were anything to worry about. His SO/9 held at over 11! OK, his BB/9 increased to 4.67, high among EL leaders (I can't get milb.com to show cross league leaders?). but his WHIP is fully competitive with the EL and CAL elite, because he gave up ridiculously few hits. Hence, I do see that he has control problems. It is only the tantalizing possibilities of a pitcher with such a high SO rate and low opponent BA, that if his walk rate was even just average.
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Post by jchang on Aug 28, 2013 20:50:18 GMT -5
I don't think the scout is discouraged in not seeing how Owens could be a top of rotation guy, you don't find these in the supplemental round. Heck, getting a 4/5 starter there is a good find. But he is baffled at Owens getting the outs like an elite pitcher. So setting aside the tall lefty comps that Eric covered in depth, how many legit 1/2 pitchers are there that work on a 90-92 FB? I know Owens can throw harder, but he works at 89-92. Edit: how many legit 2 pitchers are there with a 90-92FB?
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Post by jchang on Aug 27, 2013 23:07:43 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Miller threw 97 at age 21? I do not recall any of his games with Detroit or Miami, but I wondered if he was an example of someone brought up to the majors too fast. Even a really good college player should spend a full year in AA/AAA where he could have corrected any weaknesses in his game. I am thinking Miller's real weakness today is lack of confidence, leading to wild pitches, not physical lack of control? So it is a good thing that we have many solid prospects in AAA and AA that are older. There should be no reason to rush Owens. If Owens get stronger, that's great. But he is getting plenty of swing and miss or other outs at 89-91. Owens stats match up well against other elite Eastern League pitches including WHIP, so his higher walks means he gives up fewer hits. I just don't see any realistic expectation for him to have better opponent batting avg. But he could be even better than his elite status by giving fewer walks, i.e., no particular need for velocity? So long as Owens can work through 6-7 innings per game at reasonable pitch count, I would rather that he continue to pitch at 89-91.
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Post by jchang on Aug 21, 2013 17:38:38 GMT -5
On an error involving Xander, one cannot assume double play, so the presumption should be that Vict is out at second, Nava scores, hence Xander gets the RBI? Also Drew was denied a grand slam because Pedy was to impatient, scoring from second on the Salty single.
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Post by jchang on Aug 21, 2013 10:20:19 GMT -5
I don't mean to harp on the topic of Owens FB command either. But I would like to qualify that a good day for Owens is something like 7 innings in 90 pitches, 0-1 hits, 10+ strikes outs. A bad day when his command is off might be 5 innings on 90 pitches, 0-1 hits, 10+ strikeouts. Most of his runs are in the last inning when he is tiring. That is why I am hopeful he will build up strength over the next two years to go 100+ pitches strong. He pitches in the 89-91 range. I am sure he can throw harder now, but its about swing and miss, which there now with his 89-91 FB.
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