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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 20:10:55 GMT -5
Can people take more of this topic? I loaded up Victorino's entire career 1186 gamelog. then I generated a rolling 80 game window for his BA/OBP, which after career game 180 or so tended to correspond to 360ish PA. Game window is easier for me to generate rolling avg. OK, I probably should have used a 90 game windows to get close to 400 PA. Anyways, for the first 500 games, the rolling BA and OBP is fairly flat at 275/330 range. Then there 2 periods around career game 590 and 820 that BA/OBP experiences a surge similar to the current one. Immediately after each of the two previous surges, it falls below average before recovery. If any one would like the Excel, let me know below is a rolling 25 game windows, a little more than 100 PA after game 120ish (correction: 120 PA is his prime years the Excel file is here, let me know if it works, I may have to zip it. edit: recall that over 100 AB - 110 PA, we might expect 27 hits for a variation of +- 5 hits, or 20%, or 50 points of BA or OBP. Over 400 AB, the expected variation is half, or +- 25 point of BA/OBP
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 16:35:46 GMT -5
perhaps it might be better to say that Mookie and Cecchini will occupy temporary positions instead of their natural/best-fit positions on the expectation of continued excellence by Pedroia and developing consistency from WMB. Pedy had two full years between AA/AAA for nearly 900 AB? WMB only had 500+ between AA/AAA before his 2012 call-up. Lets suppose there is no urgent need, so Mookie and Cecchini get their full two years in AA/AAA. Then we are looking at mid-2015 for Cecchini and Sep 2015 for Mookie. Positions can be sorted out in the 2016-17 seasons.
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 15:54:25 GMT -5
I will take one more stab at this. lets suppose our batter is 0.277 over 4000 AB that is 1108 hits, for which the expected variation is +-33 hits so our confidence level is +- 3%, or .277 +- .008, now something happens that he becomes .320 hitter (ultimately proven over several years). Over 100 AB, we expect 32 hits +- 5.66 hits for a 17.7% confidence level, or 0.320 +- 0.056. but if nothing happened, then he is still a .277 hitter, we expect 27.7 hits +- 5.26 over 100 AB (don't ask how one gets a fractional hit) for 19% expected error or 0.277 +- 0.052. So basically, within a standard deviation, we cannot tell if the event has occurred. Over 400 AB (4X), the variation is reduced by half, and we could have some confidence that the .277->.320 event has occurred.
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 14:03:48 GMT -5
to summarize, even if the FO does not give Nava a 3-year contract, the arbitration salary will not break the Red Sox bank. so either way, Nava is a bargain and putting up above average batting for a starting OF.
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 12:53:01 GMT -5
raftsox: there are complexities in calculating the probability of a particular sequence for the number of hits in games. It is more clear to cite the expected distribution in the number of hits per game. Say for example, BA = 0.333, & 3 AB per game. Then the probability of 0, 1, 2 and 3 hits in a game is 8/27, 12/27, 6/27 and 1/27 respectively per binomial distribution and 2/3 whiff rate. So over 27 games, the expectation is 8 no-hit, 12 one-hit, 6 two-hit and 1 three-hit games. Of course, the statistical fluctuation is square-root N (number of samples). Over 1000 AB, we expect +- 31.6, or 30 points of BA. Over 81 AB (3x27 games) the expected number of hits is 9 +- 3?
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 11:07:49 GMT -5
Sorry that I did not read the full sequence of the Victorino last 94 PA anomaly, but ... Victorino career is .277/.342/.432 and this year .295/.353/.456, a good year but hardly an unheard of anomaly. His career walk rate is 7.5% and this year 5%, so down a little as evident in the BA-OBP difference. In looking at the 2013 game log, over the last 94PA (commencing Aug 16 vs MFY) his cumulative YTD walk rate actually declined from 5.4% to 5.0% What did jump out is that his cumulative YTD HBP rate sky rocketed from 1.8% to 3.3%, ie, 3BB, 9 HBP in this period. I think eric pointed this out earlier. His career HBP is 1.5%, in 2006 &07 with the Philly he got beaned double digit, but 16 YTD in 2013 is a career high. So Vict is taking one for the team (several actually), but personally I would prefer one of the low pay bench guys be the designated HBP victim. Who says HBP is not a talent? Oh yeah, my favorite Nava got beaned 14 times, and team total is 65.
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Post by jchang on Sept 9, 2013 15:16:54 GMT -5
jmei: thanks for the input on which WAR value to use and how to adjust. But I should read for myself the full calculation detail. I may refrain from adjusting to 600PA for now? as there may a valid reason for limited PA? perhaps I should sum up the positions with platooning instead? For now, if tech geeks are interested, I have worked out a procedure in copying Baseball Reference to Excel (with the Pos Summary column pre-formatted to Text) then importing to a database so I can strip off the *,/ symbols so that I sort by primary position, all with minor effort. Below is MLB-wide number of players by WAR and position.
Pos 8+ 6-7.9 5-5.9 4-4.9 3-3.9 2-2.9 2&up 1-1.9 0.5-0.9 Red Sox C - - 3 2 4 6 15 10 13 1.8 1B - 1 2 2 4 4 13 9 8 3.4 2B - 1 3 1 5 4 14 10 7 5.6 3B - 3 3 1 1 8 16 8 7 0.7 (WMB) SS - 1 - 4 4 7 16 10 5 2.3 LF - - 2 - 3 5 10 13 8 2.5 CF 1 2 1 3 6 4 17 8 9 5.5 RF - - 2 4 4 8 18 9 5 5.7 DH - - - 1 - 1 2 2 4 4.0 tot 1 8 16 18 31 47 121 79 66 Note, data has changed from yesterday, when I compiled the AL data. Ortiz WAR increased from 3.8 to 4.0. Most columns are ranges, the column 2 & up is the sum of the first 6 columns. As before, the last column is the WAR for the Red Sox primary player at that position. Per jmei, if we include the contribution of Carp 1, Gnomes 0.6 and Ross 0.5+Lavarnway 0.4, then essentially, we are getting premium production (2+) from all position? Iggy is 2.2 for both RS & Det time? As with AL, the number of WAR 5 players more or less fills out an All-Star roster. However there are only sufficient WAR 2 players to average 4 per team of the 30 teams. The WAR 1-1.9 provides another 3 per team.
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Post by jchang on Sept 9, 2013 14:57:20 GMT -5
don't get bent up over my DH suggestion. 2015 is a long way off, who knows what could happen. Right now with Mookie at grade 4, or even 5, it is not hugely important. The important thing is to let him continue to develop. If he shows to have above average potential, then it becomes important to get him the right spot. Also, looking at AL, there is no prototype DH. The only other DH with WAR 2+ is Kendrys Morales (I don't his career). BTW, is there any possibility hard slugging could contribute to injuries? (what was Coyle's injury?) if so, someone should tell Mookie that we are already very impressed, but we will be happy with good avg+obp and can wait until he is 25-26 to revisit his HR power.
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Post by jchang on Sept 9, 2013 12:01:16 GMT -5
I would like to see Mookie as the future DH in 2015/16 or so.
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Post by jchang on Sept 9, 2013 11:50:14 GMT -5
Below is the number of players in the AL by position and WAR that I posted in the non-Red Sox thread.
POS\WAR 8 5-7.9 4-4.9 3-3.9 2-2.9 1-1.9 Tot 1+ Red Sox C - 1 1 3 1 8 14 1.7 1B - 1 1 1 3 6 12 3.3 2B - 3 1 3 2 3 12 5.5 3B - 5 - 1 3 2 11 2.2*/0.4 SS - - - 3 5 4 12 2.3 LF - - - 1 2 9 12 2.5 CF 1 1 3 4 2 3 14 5.5 RF - 1 1 - 3 7 12 5.7 DH - - - 1 1 1 3 3.8 Tot 1 12 7 17 22 43 102
* Iggy - since traded
I would say that Ellsbury at WAR 5.5 would be extremely difficult for the Red Sox to replace. A middle of the pack team with some positions manned by WAR 0.5 players, could get two WAR 2-3 players to replace a departing WAR 5 player. Lets say Bradley puts together a good solid WAR 2 season in 2014, which is not easy considering only 59 players in AL have managed for 2013 at this point. To recover the WAR 3.5 lost with Ells, we could replace one WAR 2 player with a WAR 5, of which very few exist - never mind available or perhaps two WAR 2 with two WAR 3-4 players. I do not see either option being easy, cheap nor certain. So I think the main question mark is Ells health and back-end contract value. Near term (2-3 years) a healthy Ells is worth every penny and more. I would feel better with Ells playing CF, as a collision with Pedy should be neutral if not in Ells favor. If Xander plays SS, we can have him put padding on his back.
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Post by jchang on Sept 8, 2013 22:06:09 GMT -5
So thanks to Chris H, I finally found the player WAR list. I am citing only AL for now. I have not yet read the WAR calculation yet, but Baseball Reference provides as guidance:
WAR description number of players 8+ MVP 1 - Trout 5 All Star 13 including Trout 2+ Starter 59 total WAR 2 or higher 0-2 Sub 43 WAR 1-1.9 <0 Replacement 37 between WAR 0.5 and 0.9
So per WAR, Trout is MVP at 8.5, Cabrera 2nd at 6.9 There are 13 AL players at WAR 5 and above, with one at 4.7, another at 4.4, the rest 4.1 or below. So WAR 5 being All Star would have the correct roster count. 5 are 3B, 3 at 2B, 2 at CF, 1 at C, 1B, and RF. none at SS, LF and DH.
Below is the distribution of high WAR players by position. Last column is the Red Sox player WAR at the position.
POS\WAR 8 5-7.9 4-4.9 3-3.9 2-2.9 1-1.9 Tot 1+ Red Sox C - 1 1 3 1 8 14 1.7 1B - 1 1 1 3 6 12 3.3 2B - 3 1 3 2 3 12 5.5 3B - 5 - 1 3 2 11 2.2*/0.4 SS - - - 3 5 4 12 2.3 LF - - - 1 2 9 12 2.5 CF 1 1 3 4 2 3 14 5.5 RF - 1 1 - 3 7 12 5.7 DH - - - 1 1 1 3 3.8 Tot 1 12 7 17 22 43 102 Red Sox 3B - WAR 2.2 is Iggy, since traded (I know it was the right thing to do for this season, but how it pains me!) and I am confident WMB will be the right bat at 3B. Ortiz is top DH at 3.8. Considering that Papi is 4th in AL in OBP, SLG and OPS, 5th in AVG. Cano is below Ortiz and has WAR 6.6, I do not know if this is positional, or playing time. Considering the paucity of top DH, I think Ortiz is under valued? If # of games played factors in, the perhaps we need to add the WAR for the positions that are platooned?
There are 59 AL players with WAR 2 or better. So for 15 teams, that is 4 "starter" grade players per team. Another 43 are WAR 1 or better, but less than 2, so this adds another 3 players per team. There are a total of 139 players WAR 0.5 or better, to provide 9 players per team. To get 15 teams x 13 roster spots = 195 players, we would have to reach all the way down to WAR 0.1.
The Sox currently have 7 players with 2+ WAR, Salty at 1.7, and had for 1/2 season Iggy at 2.2. So not surprising the Red Sox are leading in key offensive categories. Finally, a plug for Nava WAR 2.5 and rank 43. This means that if talent were evenly distributed across 15 teams, Nava would be the fourth best on most teams, and third on a few.
What's the point of the above exercise? Recently, very few top tier pitchers are available on the free agent market, and of those available are age 30+ so the expectation of continued All-Star caliber performance is low. Considering how few WAR5 players there are league wide, perhaps we should adjust the value of retaining these accordingly. It does seem possible to pickup WAR 2+ and 1+ players to build a high total WAR team?
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Post by jchang on Sept 8, 2013 16:01:20 GMT -5
mine is from MLB, I had to go to player stats, deselect qualifiers, and go position by position. Wow, BR has tons more data, and its all ready processed. So it does appear that MLB is reporting be "normal position"? where many teams have no permanent DH? The perm DH are above average, but batters as DH are below avg. but the stats for the regular position players are similar. I was surprised that 2B were good in both BA and OBP, below only in SLG. I thought some one point to a WAR by position showing 2B comparable to SS. Anyways, thanks for the BR link. I still need to explore that site. I should stop wasting time on MLB.com
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Post by jchang on Sept 8, 2013 13:59:40 GMT -5
Ok, I am curious as to the positional variations of batting. Below is 2013 year to date for AL. Pos AVG OBP SLG OPS AB C 0.245 0.317 0.396 0.714 8588 1B 0.258 0.336 0.450 0.786 9652 2B 0.262 0.327 0.384 0.711 8639 3B 0.265 0.325 0.431 0.757 7754 SS 0.254 0.309 0.366 0.675 8682 LF 0.255 0.327 0.416 0.743 10184 CF 0.263 0.326 0.402 0.727 8310 RF 0.255 0.319 0.409 0.729 8143 DH 0.270 0.353 0.433 0.786 2420 avg 0.258 0.325 0.408 0.733 I included AB to show the variation, so presumably the position is the players normal position? if a player occasionally DH's, it still listed at his normal position? We normally hear that SS and Catcher are the two premium defensive positions, followed by CF. By stats, it seem catchers are poor hitters, but can slug. SS can hit OK, but don't seem to draw sufficient walks? 1B and DH are the OBP leaders, 1B, 3B and DH are sluggers
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 21:29:03 GMT -5
thanks, but I was just curious. Suppose Nava posts his .390 OBP this year and next, good for WAR 2.5. Jayson Werth has similar OBP, much higher SLG good for WAR 3.7. His salary from 05,07-10 went from $337K, 850K, 1.7M, 2.5M, 7.5M with WAR 3-4.5. I should find a more recent OF with WAR 2.5, but don't know how to get baseball-reference to show it. BRef say Nava arb el 2015. so perhaps Nava would be 0.5, 1, 1.5M for the next 3yr, or has the scale changed? It would be nice to see Nava get 7-9m, but he may have slog in the trenches for 4-5 years to get it.
OK, here is Dexter Fowler, COL, OBP 365, WAR 2.7/2.7/1.9 in 2011-13 salary 424K, 2.35M, 4.25M, so it looks like you were right on for 3yr, 7M+ Lets see, if I just had a baby girl, I think I would take the financial security.
Correction: I would ask the missus for her input, then I would find that my opinion just happens to match hers.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 19:52:46 GMT -5
I find it hilarious that in this thread, people are complaining about Nava's lack of HR/XBH power, and in the WMB thread complaining about high SO, low avg etc. We should replace these guys with players who can hit 40HR and OBP 390+, oh yeah, it would be nice to get this at a MLB minimum. The MFY could make Arod available? I would be curious about on what Nava would get in arbitration is his stats held. JohnS says Nava is not eligible yet? Somehow, I think it would not break the bank - for the tightwad Astros!
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 17:38:58 GMT -5
Nava is below Werth $16M and above Wright $10M among qualifiers in OBP, whatever he would get in arbitration, I say it is good value. He may be having a career year at 300/392/450, but career 270/371/413 isn't bad either. 2013 WAR is 2.5, some where cited $5M per WAR is a typical free agent price? MLB average OBP for outfielders is 330ish. Nava also just had a baby -congrats- so I suppose he will take a reasonable offer for the security. Oh yeah, maybe next year he will actually be on the All-Star ballot instead of a write-in candidate.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 15:32:51 GMT -5
Luis Alexander Basabe (DSL) - .225/.385/.321 1 HR, 49 BB, 18 SB Bryce Brentz (PAW/GCL) - .262/.312/.487 19 HR, 21 BB, 1 SB Jackie Bradley, Jr. (PAW) - .275/.374/.469 3 HR, 41 BB, 7 SB Keury De La Cruz (SAL) - .258/.297/.398 9 HR, 31 BB, 16 SB Alex Hassan (PAW/GRE) - .338/.457/.471 4 HR, 46 BB, 0 SB Brandon Jacobs (POR/SAL) - .247/.335/.448 11 HR, 33 BB, 10 SB Jeremy Hazelbaker (PAW) - .257/.313/.374 11 HR, 36 BB, 37 SB Bryan Hudson (GCL) - .304/.406/.348 0 HR, 23 BB, 6 SB J.C. Linares (PAW/POR) - .266/.344/.425 8 HR, 31 BB, 0 SB Jesus Loya (GRE/GCL) - .296/.340/.382 0 HR, 8 BB, 5 SB Kevin Mager (GRE/LOW) - .276/.368/.385 3 HR, 39 BB, 3 SB Henry Ramos (SAL) - .252/.330/.416 12 HR, 55 BB, 11 SB Aneury Tavarez (GRE) - .257/.295/.388 7 HR, 21 BB, 29 SB Tony Thomas (PAW/POR) - .228/.290/.395 11 HR, 36 BB, 18 SB Drew Turocy (GRE) - .297/.347/.423 0 HR, 19 BB, 6 SB hey this Code format is neat, and I thought I was too old to learn new tricks is there a sarcasm font?
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 14:05:01 GMT -5
I don't see any reason to be surprised at the adjustment difficulty WMB had earlier this year, or any that could still happen in the next year or two. Perhaps our frame of reference has been affected by Youk, Pedroia and Ells, that any less is a bust. Lowrie had adjustment/injury issues. Nava is probably a different case because he did not project to be an above average player back when he was a non/post-prospect. Also, I do not see how WMB's SO are any different from other heavy HR hitters. Chris Davis was hot his first year, then slumped the next 2 before the O's "filched" him for some guy named Uehara, ... oh wait, never mind. Below: MLB career
Player Avg SO BB HR% XBH% WMB 0.262 27.1% 5.5% 5.27% 10.9% C Davis 0.268 33.5% 8.3% 6.18% 12.1% Hamilton 0.294 22.8% 9.2% 5.42% 12.1% J Bautista 0.254 22.3% 16.0% 5.83% 11.4% Teixeira 0.278 20.0% 13.2% 5.96% 12.5% Cabrera 0.321 19.4% 12.8% 5.92% 12.8% Pujols 0.321 11.4% 14.6% 6.73% 14.1%
left off Miguel Cabrera because he is in the elite category, and I think WMB should be in the above average to all star range. So it would be nice if WMB could approach Bautista SO/BB rates, but HR power with decent average is not something to be dismissed. Note: Both Davis, Bautista and Cabrera had comparable HR and XBH rates at age 23-24, with a surge is their late 20's. I don't think it will be easy to find a prospect that will deliver Pujols numbers.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 13:53:53 GMT -5
What'd I say about this lineup being the Lackey Run Support Squad!!!. ps I will now deny there was any sarcasm in the original remark. Convenient that boards do not convey tone.
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Post by jchang on Sept 7, 2013 10:44:45 GMT -5
This must be the Lackey run support squad. 63 runs of support in last 8 games with a starter not named Lackey.
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 22:09:37 GMT -5
Farrell will relax when MFY are dead, cold, and buried?
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 21:59:37 GMT -5
The video pan of the bullpen showed Uehara standing up. Is the thought he wouldn't be needed tomorrow with Huff starting for MFY?
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 20:50:00 GMT -5
I am a nervous wreck, how are other people doing?
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 14:30:45 GMT -5
It should be no surprise that Youk jerseys sold well with the ladies, why did you think he was shaking his booty every at-bat. Besides, experienced women know the value of proven winners over pretty boys.
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2013 14:22:27 GMT -5
Drew and Salty should take a rate less than the QO - $14M?, but would desire 2-year? Salty should be good a fit for 2yr because there is no replacement in the wings. We could say that Drew is not needed for 2 years, but of course it also appeared that Beltre was not needed with AGon and Youk in hand, netting Swihart and Bradley as compensation. I am thinking that our team looks to be strong contenders in next year and following, hence it might be better to try to keep important players over prospects that will take a few years to develop.
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