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Post by jchang on Sept 29, 2013 13:44:26 GMT -5
I am in the blackout zone. Went to game on fri. Great weather. Great fun. O fans were upbeat considering.
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Post by jchang on Sept 29, 2013 13:18:11 GMT -5
shoot. I didn't realize they were going to use Webster, gotta go find a tv
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Post by jchang on Sept 29, 2013 11:36:11 GMT -5
I would not mind today being handled by the bullpen, we already know Lackey is a good pitcher, but the roster spots for RP is still to be settled.
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Post by jchang on Sept 28, 2013 20:29:42 GMT -5
Last night with the huge lead we used our two best rp. Now in a tight game. We will use the others. Then again a great season. Nava has started hot. Cooled off. But gets hot again after a break. Paternity leave this time mid season. He know what to do this off season to get ready for 2014.
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 20:47:11 GMT -5
Welcome to mlb
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 20:45:02 GMT -5
O's pitcher making debut facing papi
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 19:06:34 GMT -5
Bummer on salty almost hr
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 18:15:57 GMT -5
Nava doubters KMA!
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 16:57:12 GMT -5
Well I had drive 2hr for 50mi to get here
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Post by jchang on Sept 27, 2013 9:08:47 GMT -5
OK, to be clear, Wikipedia says BP is heavy into stats. Jason Parks seems to be one of the scouts on the staff. Does Chris Mellen consider it a negative to be associated with stats people? Anyways, back to Owens. Below is his game log for 2013 (I had to cut and paste, so there may be errors)
MM dd Opp IP H R ER BB SO Hr Apr 6 @FR 5 2 0 0 2 4 0 Apr 12 MB 5 4 2 2 1 5 1 Apr 17 Pot 5 3 3 2 2 7 0 Apr 23 Wil 6 3 0 0 1 6 0 Apr 29 @Wil 5 3 2 2 2 8 0 May 4 @WS 6 2 2 2 3 10 1 May 11 @MB 3.1 5 8 6 2 5 3 May 16 @Ca 6 2 2 2 3 10 1 May 26 @Fr 4.2 5 4 4 4 6 1 May 31 MB 6 2 1 1 2 7 0 Jun 5 WS 5 1 0 0 5 6 0 Jun 10 Wil 5 4 0 0 1 5 0 Jun 16 Lyn 4.1 5 2 2 3 7 0 Jun 25 @WS 7 3 0 0 1 6 0 Jun 30 CAR 5 3 3 3 5 4 0 Jul 5 @CAR 2 6 5 5 5 3 0 Jul 11 MRT 6.2 3 2 0 4 4 0 Jul 17 @FRD 6 0 0 0 4 10 0 Jul 22 @POT 5 0 0 0 3 9 0 Jul 28 POT 7.2 4 4 4 3 7 0 Aug 3 @BOW 6 4 0 0 2 11 0 Aug 9 BOW 4 4 2 2 1 8 1 Aug 16 @HAR 5 0 1 0 3 10 0 Aug 22 @TRN 3 2 2 1 7 3 0 Aug 27 @NH 6.2 2 0 0 1 6 0 Sep 1 TRN 5.2 6 3 3 1 8 2
Depending on the game, I do not have an issue with JP's report. I am positive on Owens because I think he will improve, not necessarily in velocity or command. I am hoping more for consistency. I think the Jul 28 game (I listened on radio, as I could not find anyone willing to split the drive to Salem) shows Owens pattern. In that game he blistered his way through 7 shutout innings, 1H 2BB at low pitch count. So he came out for the 8th. 3H, SF, SO, W. Then Ott allowed 2 inherited runners to score of Owens 4 ER. There was an interview on Owens with a remark concerning the slow version of his CB, that it won't work in MLB, he said he would keep throwing it until opponent can hit it. I suspect that's his attitude on his FB velocity. 89-90 works for him, why dial it up to risk injury.
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Post by jchang on Sept 23, 2013 16:50:29 GMT -5
I have been to see Owens pitch almost every time he is in the DC area, be it at Frederick, Potomac and after promotion to AA, Bowie, and even made the trip to Salem occasionally. It seems that he lacks control but is that what it really is? There is a distinct pattern to his outings. He is nearly unhittable despite the walks in the early innings. In early 2012 this would only be 3 innings. This year it could be 5-7 innings, and then he might get hit in his last inning depending. Sure this happens to others of pitchers including the majors. But if he really did lack control, why is it so impossible to hit him in the early innings? You would think that a lack of control would mean that he would give up hits with more random distribution. How can it be that the opponents BA jumps at the very end when he is worn out? Unless his control is just fine until he gets tired? I can buy the argument that the elite prospects in the other minor league teams have great stuff that projects well, but why are so few putting up really great stats. Anyways, I am not hung up on stats for minors because the prospects should be focused on developing their arsenal.
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Post by jchang on Sept 17, 2013 19:34:39 GMT -5
What will happen next?
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Post by jchang on Sept 16, 2013 12:47:04 GMT -5
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Post by jchang on Sept 15, 2013 21:27:23 GMT -5
Ortiz feelt no need to boost his obp with a hbp
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Post by jchang on Sept 14, 2013 14:39:19 GMT -5
I think the rotation members are clear, and we can work out the sequence soon. So it might be of greater interest to see who should be the relievers in the remaining games. Of course Lester pitches 8 today, so we will only get to see one RP, and since there is not a humor font, I add
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Post by jchang on Sept 14, 2013 12:54:45 GMT -5
If even xander- 20 has a beard, why can't nava? Get with the program :-)
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Post by jchang on Sept 13, 2013 20:01:05 GMT -5
Does it seem that Victorino must run hard for his outs, while those in the direction of CF go straight to JBJ
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Post by jchang on Sept 13, 2013 13:23:27 GMT -5
Victorino is getting hit a lot this year, and he had one other year with 10+ HBP? So is it possible this can be a skill? as opposed to chance? aside from not jumping out of the way when possible? Suppose it became known that a player can be fooled into swinging on an inside pitch but well out of the strike zone, would that encourage pitchers to throw in? Of course, if you must take one for the team, an 80mph CB is preferred to a 96 FB, It would also be nice to not be hit in a critical body part, the uniform counts right?
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Post by jchang on Sept 12, 2013 22:44:48 GMT -5
Nava has 14 HBP in addition to his 50BB, good for a 30 point boost in his OBP. So is HBP chance or a talent? singles and BB are not sexy, oh well. But even if Nava falls to WAR 1 in 2014, there are only 121 players performing at WAR 2 and higher in all of MLB as of a few days ago, or average of 4 per team over 30 teams. There are 201 at WAR 1 and higher, not enough to fill the 15x9 AL and 15x8 NL slots = 255.
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Post by jchang on Sept 12, 2013 20:56:31 GMT -5
It seems those negative on Nava because of his lack luster power, and are not impressed with piddly singles. In looking at primary LF players in 2013, there is some impressive HR power in this spot lead by Soriano at 32. Six LF players currently have more than 20 HR, and 3 are at 19 so likely to finish over 20. There are 16 members of this group with 12 or more HR (including Gomes) with a combined line of 257/330/460, for ISO 203. Compare with Nava ISO at 147. But what is the WAR value of power versus OBP? Soriano line is 252/291/487 over 571 PA, WAR 1.9 Nava is 300/390/447 over 476 PA, WAR 2.6 (up to day from 2.5 2 days ago?) I have no idea what Nava will be next year, but he has earned his $510K salary for 2014. Given that Nava and Carp are controlled, and Gomes is under contract, this seems like a decent offensive platoon + 1B backup. It is possible one of these 3 could be challenged by Hassan, Brentz or free-agent. (I am excluding JB from LF or bench consideration)
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Post by jchang on Sept 11, 2013 22:07:09 GMT -5
so who will pitch in this non-save situation?
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Post by jchang on Sept 11, 2013 22:04:58 GMT -5
Pity TB, they must feel that the powers of fate have conspired against them.
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Post by jchang on Sept 11, 2013 9:51:44 GMT -5
Without having made a study of arbitration salaries vs performance, I would venture a guess that the guys who got contracts, which always included one (or two) years beyond the arb years, were probably getting for the arb year in line with what they would have gotten in arbitration. So basically the player got financial security in exchange for the team getting an extra year. The purpose of getting an extra year or two was not for a discount rate, but rather that the alternative is to commit to a 5-7 year deal at the end of arb, which potentially includes a players declining years. I am thinking the situation for Nava is that with consistent performance, he may get comparable money to what has been mentioned here in the arb years. Afterwards, he may be looking at a 2-3 year contract as opposed to a 28 year old all-star player looking for 5-7 yrs. Anyways, I am glad we have Nava, who was only expected to be a 4th OF, delivering above average starter performance. Even if his game continues to elevate, that's a good problem to have and it won't break the RS bankroll.
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 21:20:45 GMT -5
yeah, I think Farell is in playoff hunt mode (in having Uehara do the 4-out save). has a closer ever been team MVP? Red Sox or other?
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Post by jchang on Sept 10, 2013 21:11:14 GMT -5
I did not understand the intentional walk on Butler in the 9th to face Henry who already has 2 hits and is having a good series
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