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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 16, 2022 7:34:24 GMT -5
Guys I am all for signing X and Raffy but at the same time I don't want to see the Sox saddled with deals that are going to be a ball and chain a few years down the road. And if they both want top of the market AAV then I am getting used to the idea they might not be here.
In regards to pitching there are always risks involved on whomever they sign, that same risk goes for all players. My point is regardless of who it is or when it is they will need to be spending upwards of 75 million without any high end home grown talent to balance things out. They can't just score enough runs to contend they will need top pitchers if they want to win a WS. There aren't many surefire aces out there that you know what you're going to get and they are all 30+m. Maybe they continue to build up the middle of the road starter type and ask 8 different guys to pitch 3 innings at a time but that has its risks also.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 16, 2022 4:53:14 GMT -5
For those who keep asking where will the Sox spend the money if they don't sign Raffy or X. As I have pointed out before, pitching. The Sox are currently spending about 50m on Sale and Nate and most would say they need more high end pitching. They have some arms with potential in the system but nobody that projects as a top 1 or 2. So they will need to pay for it unless they make some trades to try and get someone.
From where I am looking the Sox will always need to be spending big money for arms.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2022 11:10:12 GMT -5
The Patriots are so devoid of high end talent it’s kind of sickening. There isn’t one non-special teams guy that you can really argue is at or near the top of the league at their position. And yet that is what you could have said many times in the past 20 years. When I made this comment I was not inferring that the Pats didn't have much talent nor was I agreeing with rjp. It is what the analysts have been saying about the Pats for a good part of their run. I think there is a lot of guys who have been drafted that haven't done much yet and some free agents from last year that haven't either. But I expect that enough of that group will step up and be productive this yr. I think the D will be fine as they always are and the O will be much improved over last yr. I think they win 12 games.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2022 10:54:18 GMT -5
Again, who is playing 3B for the Red Sox after the 2023 season? Betting on the 20 year old Nick Yorke who the team is trying to make stick at 2B? Can he even play 3B? Betting on the 19 year old Blaze Jordan? Hope the then 31/32 year old Manny Machado opts out of his contract, of which he's currently owed 32 million per? Get Josh Donaldson when he's 38? Or perhaps a 35 year old Mike Moustakas? The only guy that really makes sense to me for the Red Sox is a 33/34 year old Matt Chapman. Cue the duck boats. And let's say they let one of baseball's most elite bats go and sign Matt Chapman. Where does the rest of the money go? The currently 29 year old Cody Bellinger? Let's stop talking about, "is he worth the money" and let's talk about the reality on the field. The Red Sox have no options. The only alternative to me, ironically, is Xander Bogaerts and I'm not in love with that idea either as I prefer Devers to Xander. Dalbec
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 15, 2022 6:58:35 GMT -5
Given a choice, I would prefer they keep Devers. He's a pure hitter and will be for a long time, even if he ends up as our DH. Boggy can be replaced far easier. His bat is good, not great. Dever's bat is great. Perception vs reality might not match up with this thought. The analytics don't say Devers bat is great, very good but not great. He takes mighty hacks and puts dents in balls so he is fun to watch but he has another step to take to be great IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 15:16:02 GMT -5
In regards to what was just being discussed in the Devers extension thread that was halted by Chris, rightfully, as being off topic.
When we discuss the return on the Mookie deal I think most would say that Downs was supposed to be a big part of that return and his performance to date has been nothing short of terrible. If he had continued to be a top prospect then the debate would be very different, what if he was actually the starting 2nd baseman and producing? Yeah I know prospects are suspects and he is proof.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 12:15:12 GMT -5
I am optimistic the C's will be fine in this series but I have one foolish concern. Drummond can be a monster on the boards and down low, he could have a bigger impact on this series than people are thinking right now. The C's don't really have an answer for his size. I hope I am wrong and it does turn into a foolish concern.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 12:05:13 GMT -5
Sure, but 1) Owners like big names because 2) Big names sell seats/ad revenue/shirts/etc. Eh, it seems to me that trying to minimize the number of meaningless games is the only thing that's really important. Interest craters fast once the team is out of it How many road games do we see less than 10,000 seats filled and that is with a team that draws very well on the road, our Sox.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 12:00:53 GMT -5
I hope Raffy hits another level this year as much as anyone, except maybe he and his agent, but the fact is for truly elite hitters many of them have their best seasons very early. The idea that he hasn't hit his prime isn't as valid as it might be for lesser players and he has only been over 900 OPS once so far so he isn't quite that elite. Also the scuttle butt is he wants more like 35AAV correct? That is what I have heard thrown around. I can totally understand if the Sox decide to move him for multiple players and at least 1 elite prospect as he does have his warts LT. As fans we might not like it but based on all the analysis it might be the smart move rather than paying him 33AAV. I mean really how many times have we watched the Yankees get screwed with dead cap space let alone our own mistakes.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 7:31:01 GMT -5
If the tea leaves are saying both Raffy and Xander want top of the market money and the Sox don't want to go there then is Bobby the 3rd base insurance? Just like Story is at SS. Losing both those guys would really hurt but can you imagine the quality of prospects the Sox could have over the next few years by trading both. They could hypothetically have the best group of 20-22 yr olds by a strong margin. It would hurt but it could set the Sox up for a ten yr run, then again signing them could do the same thing.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 12, 2022 16:03:44 GMT -5
And yet that is what you could have said many times in the past 20 years. Brady covers for a lot of other soft spots on the roster. We don’t know that about Mac (yet). This is true but the Pats have had a great D the whole time also. Other than Moss how many times have they even had a Davonte Parker to throw to? He is more than a slot receiver.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 12, 2022 14:39:11 GMT -5
My only caveat to the 1st rd LG is that I'd be stunned if they kick Wynn inside. Despite his pre-draft scouting report, they seem to look at him as a LT Could that change? I guess? Just not confident they would do so (FWIW he and his agent would probably be PISSED to as he heads to FA). So, if someone wants to tell me there is a 1st rd tackle that spends this year at LG (don't even know if the candidates in that range could) and then moves outside next year, fine. If the Pats moved him inside and he dominated then he wouldn't really be hurting his value much as he has already established his value as an average LT. I would have no problem with the Pats taking Penning if he is there and moving Wynn inside. The trenches still matter and BB wants to have a good run game that is the benefit of a strong Oline. And Wynn would be an awesome guard, much better then a limited by size LT.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 12, 2022 14:31:25 GMT -5
The Patriots are so devoid of high end talent it’s kind of sickening. There isn’t one non-special teams guy that you can really argue is at or near the top of the league at their position. And yet that is what you could have said many times in the past 20 years.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 11, 2022 18:15:45 GMT -5
Outstanding pitching
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 11, 2022 6:24:36 GMT -5
You know Peppers has played in 61 games starting 59 and Wilson is 43 with 28 starts right? The Giants liked Peppers enough to pick up his 5th year option at 6.8 million last year. McGrone and Perkins are 2nd/3rd round prospects types. You can draft new ones, yet how does that change anything? Perkins last 19 games in College 24 TFL and 11.5 sacks. He fell in the draft due to a failed drug test while at College. Do they workout? Who knows, yet both players are very talented and have the upside of NFL starters. What I want to know, is what happened to Uche, 3 sacks the first two games last year. Gets injured and then was a zero the rest of the season. So I'm not worried at LB with projected starters Wilson, Bentley and Peppers, along with McGrone for Depth, nevermind other guys like Jennings who I really wanted to see be given a chance at middle LB. Yet this is a completely different defense than the one he played on as a rookie. Jennings last two years at Bama after his injury, 134 tackles, 26.5 TFL, 14.5 sacks, 2 interceptions and 16 PD. He's just an afterthought right now. Yet that's better production than most LB in this draft. My hope is that it's just taking him some time to adjust to the Patriots complex defense. That's a lot of options to throw against the wall and see you sticks. They likely draft another LB. They also play a ton of two safety looks taking out a LB, that's not changing Now DL you have two good young options that are unproven mostly. Yet they certainly need more. That's my bigger worry. It's why I want Flowers and Hicks, or you'll need to look into drafting a few guys. Yet again, they'll be unproven. The right DE could solve run issues on running downs and be a pass rusher next to Barmore like Flower did for years, while bringing in Perkins/Uche. This draft has a bunch of those guys, your 265 to 280 DE types. I'm growing to really like Neil Farrel Jr. as a run stuffing DT in the draft. Bill stated he wanted to get younger and faster on D, he's done that. Yet getting younger does carry risk, yet so many veterans also doesn't give young players a chance to play. I don't see Peppers as the KVN replacement like you do. I expect they'll relax size requirements somewhat in exchange for needed speed and athleticism but Peppers can't hold up in that role for the 80-90% of the snaps like KVN, they don't have the same skillset beyond the size difference. Peppers will take more limited snaps there and be a box safety while moving all over, but he's got to prove himself, there's a reason he signed for so cheap. With McCourty, Dugger, and Phillips near locks to log as many or more snaps than Peppers, if you play all four at the same time with a couple corners you'd better have a lot of beef in the front five that can both rush the passer and defend the run. I like Bentley enough, but if he's the best bet at LB it's a reach to even call them an average NFL group right now. I agree with your concerns about the DL group, and that factors in because an elite DL group would make me okay with the dice throws on youth at LB. I'm hopeful Barmore takes another step this year, he's the guy to build with up front but pairing him with a complimentary piece would be ideal. To get away with a primary Peppers/Bentley/Wilson alignment you'd need to get a lot more stout up front, you need space eaters. If they drafted Jordan Davis okay, but that's illustrating the need which was my point. As is, this group would leave Peppers getting eaten up off the edge by blockers, he can't shed them like KVN. It would be big play city off the edges with Judon and Peppers, good lord. Hopefully Judon improves in that regard this year too. With the current cornerback group it'd be ideal to have an above average defense in front of them. Forget the particular position, they need to add an impact defender to the front seven (or, an internal guy become one next season). Outside of the safety group, every positional group on defense could use an impact defender - I don't care if it's on the interior, edge, at linebacker, just find a legit guy to build with. I like the McGrone, Perkins, etc. types enough but none of those guys should be relied upon for big roles to start the season, they have to earn it in camp - I'd say the same about Peppers and Wilson too. The AFC is too competitive to suck out of the gate, I have faith in Bill to build a coach them up over the year but there are too many risks in key roles to start. I don't see Bill as a guy afraid of benching/cutting vets, he's not a coach who pencils in starters in the offseason and sticks with it if they don't deserve it. I'd rather these young guys earn playing time like the Pats have always done it, but they are the front line right now. I think they have impact players upfront in Barmore, Godchaux and Judon so the cupboard isn't bare. As I said before I trust that BB will field a competitive D, he always has so there isn't much reason to doubt him IMO. The real test could be how the D evolves into a faster more athletic scheme with four safeties roaming the field. I think we are going to see some real game specific plans with the goal to shut down the Bills with those 4 safeties and lots of pressure. But against many teams they will be able to keep doing what they have always done, bend don't break.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 11, 2022 4:34:04 GMT -5
yes. LOL. edit....just teasin' bro. I got him in my keeper league this year for a buck! If he plays like 2nd half Bobby I’m rich! Cost me a buck ninety, I am optimistic he has a break out season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 19:45:54 GMT -5
Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap. What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here? I see some names in there that I could see throwing money at but that isn't the point. The point is the Sox don't have the horses that can be an ace or even a #2 in the system. Those guys cost money and you will need to invest heavily yr in yr out. Right now it is Sale and Nate who I want the Sox to resign which won't be cheap but that is 50m.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 12:27:12 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be. Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 11:48:28 GMT -5
Wow, that is out of the blue. This just doesn't happen very often and should happen more IMO. You should be able to get to a place where both parties are happy and start a good relationship early on.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 11:40:12 GMT -5
Career bWAR after age 24 season. Devers 10.7 (3 full seasons, half season in debut, half season in 2020) Bogaerts 11.5 (4 plus a month seasons) Story 6.9 (2ish) bWAR/162 after age 24 season Devers 3.16 Bogaerts 2.99 Story 4.62 Story clearly debuted a more finished product debuting at 23, but using only career numbers isn't telling a full story. This all started with someone saying not to compare Story to X and Raffy by pointing out his worst season BA of 251 and playing at Coors. I think the numbers say different, you can absolutely compare him to those 2. Yes his defense is a big reason why but he has also been very productive at the plate, Story is no slouch is all I am pointing out.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 10:38:31 GMT -5
Can anyone make a front seven for the Pats defense right now and actually feel good about it? Not a sub package of rushers in obvious passing situations, I mean the front seven that will take the most snaps for the team. Who is the third best player in their front seven right now? I know free agency isn't over and the draft hasn't arrived, but I'm trying to illustrate the current need here. People seem to cite all the unproven young-ish players with talent on the roster, but right now they're depending on a couple of those guys becoming regulars to open next year when they shouldn't be counted on like that. Uche, McGrone, McMillian, Perkins, Wilson, Peppers, etc. are good depth to have to push the starters if they can breakout, but none of those guys should be the leading candidates to have a full time role to open the year right now, and yet here we are. You know Peppers has played in 61 games starting 59 and Wilson is 43 with 28 starts right? The Giants liked Peppers enough to pick up his 5th year option at 6.8 million last year. McGrone and Perkins are 2nd/3rd round prospects types. You can draft new ones, yet how does that change anything? Perkins last 19 games in College 24 TFL and 11.5 sacks. He fell in the draft due to a failed drug test while at College. Do they workout? Who knows, yet both players are very talented and have the upside of NFL starters. What I want to know, is what happened to Uche, 3 sacks the first two games last year. Gets injured and then was a zero the rest of the season. So I'm not worried at LB with projected starters Wilson, Bentley and Peppers, along with McGrone for Depth, nevermind other guys like Jennings who I really wanted to see be given a chance at middle LB. Yet this is a completely different defense than the one he played on as a rookie. Jennings last two years at Bama after his injury, 134 tackles, 26.5 TFL, 14.5 sacks, 2 interceptions and 16 PD. He's just an afterthought right now. Yet that's better production than most LB in this draft. My hope is that it's just taking him some time to adjust to the Patriots complex defense. That's a lot of options to throw against the wall and see you sticks. They likely draft another LB. They also play a ton of two safety looks taking out a LB, that's not changing Now DL you have two good young options that are unproven mostly. Yet they certainly need more. That's my bigger worry. It's why I want Flowers and Hicks, or you'll need to look into drafting a few guys. Yet again, they'll be unproven. The right DE could solve run issues on running downs and be a pass rusher next to Barmore like Flower did for years, while bringing in Perkins/Uche. This draft has a bunch of those guys, your 265 to 280 DE types. I'm growing to really like Neil Farrel Jr. as a run stuffing DT in the draft. Bill stated he wanted to get younger and faster on D, he's done that. Yet getting younger does carry risk, yet so many veterans also doesn't give young players a chance to play. I was going to reply to this also but just knew you would do a better job of pointing out what the Pats do have rather than what they don't. I was just lazy. Sure there are some unproven guys in that group but you have to give these guys a chance to prove themselves. Remember we all thought something was wrong with Harris when he got no touches his rookie season and look how that turned out, patience.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 8:32:56 GMT -5
Trevor Story career average WAR based on 162 games, 5.8 Xander 4.2 Raffy 3.2 Your point has some validity, but it's also always misleading to compare "career average" stats for a guy who got to mlb at age 23 with those of two guys who were in mlb at age 20. What is each man's average WAR from 23 on? In 7 seasons Story bwar 26.8 Xander in 9 seasons 29.1 Raffy 5 seasons 10.7 No matter how you cut it up Story is a comparable player overall as he has 10.6 in dwar.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 3:46:53 GMT -5
Regardless of the cost? I mean there are teams out there willing to do stupid deals. Just look at Corey Seagar at 10/325, that is just ridiculous. I don't care that much about how much these guys get paid but what I don't want to see is 66 million in bad contracts between Raffy and Xander on the back end of those LT deals. Let the Yankees and Dodgers have those problems, heck it is looking like the Mookie deal could end up being a ball and chain. The Trevor Story contract was the best team friendly deal signed this past off season IMO, keep doing that Chaim. If Raffy and Xander are both looking for 33 at least then I say it is time to get some propects back in return. If they are GG candidates then that is a different story. Story is a GG candidate that rakes and look at his contract. I hate to be negative I do. Like i said earlier i wouldn’t go past 6 years and MLB should put a max on years for a deal. That being said please don’t compare Devers and Bogaerts to a guy who hit .251 while playing half of his games at Coors Field. I’d give X a 5 year 30 mill a year deal. Dude took a nice team friendly deal and is the face of the franchise. Devers i would go 6 years at 32 mill per. If they don’t want those deals then I would trade Devers as soon as this season is over and overpay X if i had to just at a shorter term. He’s a Red Sox legend and deserves to end his career with us. I don’t see the Story hype. I hope he grows on me. Trevor Story career average WAR based on 162 games, 5.8 Xander 4.2 Raffy 3.2
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 9, 2022 13:52:32 GMT -5
Ladies and gentlemen, presenting... The Human Element! Just want to point out that the posters who are against the robo thing usually say there are only 6 or 7 bad calls/game. Well this is 16 calls, that makes a difference.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 9, 2022 11:50:10 GMT -5
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