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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:26:50 GMT -5
Perhaps another element of this discussion would be how analytics are actually applied during games by the Sox and mfy (and Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc). For example, how many face-palm moments do their fans have that are equivalent to bringing in binkies like Craig Breslow in a 1-1 tie or an overused Koji or Juni in a 10-5 blowout, j. Gomes against RHP, sending Papi against Cespey's arm. Then we have the anti-binkie thing, like sitting JBJ for long stretches then sending him back down,staging Johnson's debut after a long periid of building up rust, pushing out XB for Drrew, letting Nava wilt. In such ways improper use of analytics can lead to face-palm losses (and the players are fully cognizant of these gaffes) which certainly derail a "culture of winning". The Pats do have "it". The old Celtics were drenched in it. The mfy can't seem to lose it. From the first day I wondered if the instant personality cult of the 3-amigos (which automatically isolated Mike Napoli) would have a negative effect on the rest of the team. How would they model for XB and Mookie, and who would be excluded. I don't think its a stretch that this exlusive trinity has, on many levels, been devicive and counter-productive in the exact opposite manner of the cohesiveness of the 2013 band of bearded brothers. It is almost as if traditional team-first players like Pedey, Nap, XB, Mookie, Nava, Brockstar, have been, improbably, marginalized. If this continues so will losing ways. Agree with almost all of this Gerry. Especially the part about not using talent properly to win at the MLB level. I don't know if this extends to the minors where at least player development is a valid reason to not always do the optimal analytical thing. Farrell is certainly very weak on tactics and best use of personnel and perhaps that is the biggest reason why at the MLB level the MFy are outperforming the Sox.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:16:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox had a better organizational record in 2013 and 2014 though. Thanks for doing that research. Do you happen to know that relative rankings of the farm systems by the usual suspects, sometimes it can be a bit like primary presidential politics where the early key is to "outperform expectations"
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:12:52 GMT -5
But you haven't addressed how many players on their 25 man roster is on the parent club and how many within the system are planned to be. True, but I'm not arguing that the Yankees have a superior farm system in terms of talent, or that they will bring more minor league talent to the parent club. I am saying that they seem to have a way to get better baseball out of the talent they have no matter how acquired and recent years than the Sox with the glaring exception of 2013. And am asking why that is demonstrably the case along with offering one theory of a non analytical nature as to why.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 12:07:20 GMT -5
I know this isn't really the point of the post, but saying that Red Sox are more analytically oriented than the Yankees is an outdated way of looking at things. The Yankees certainly have a larger analytics staff than the Red Sox do, and maybe a more analytically inclined GM. I'll take our ownership over theirs, but beyond that I would say we've fallen behind several teams in terms of aggressive analytics use. I never dais that the Sox were more analytically oriented than the Yankees, in fact I have no idea whether or not that's the case nor do I care. What I'm saying is that the MFY seem to instill a culture of winning that seeps down through the minor league system so, at least this year, (not going to go back to suss out relative rankings and records) what I am saying is that they are doing better with purported less talent than the Sox and am suggesting a possible reason for that. Maybe it's organizational professionalism (and I'm not talking about the clean shaven bit though some could argue that point), I choose to call it a winning attitude and have pointed elsewhere that it's something that the Pats have as well.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:31:50 GMT -5
How many players on their active 25 man roster came from their farm system and how many are planned to become apart of it? They are probably the luckiest of organizations in baseball who are constantly hitting on free agents and continue to strike lightning in a bottle. Remember Shawn Chacone and Aaron Small? How did their careers pan out after that run with the Yankees. Tanaka should have Tommy John and Pidena doesn't pitch for 3 seasons? No problem. A-rod misses a year and a half and is old? Still insanely valuable. Mark Teixeria has a history of injuries and has held up this season while Napoli looks toasted. It's maddening, but they seem to always find a way to get the most out of their players. It wouldn't surprise me if next season Tanaka and Pidena are both knocked out and they have Sabathia return to form and Evoldai take that next step forward. It hasn't been all roses for them though, they missed the playoffs the last two years as well. People keep forgetting this. I'd rather lose the way the Red Sox are than to have an entirely lost season by having an unprotected pick and then signing players. I agree that it's better to get all the losing out of the way and rebuild than muddle along but the point is the MFY seem to get more out of their talent more consistently than the Sox have and are doing so at the minor league level as well. And yes development is more important than winning in the minors, but in s sense winning is part of development. Also would mention that what you say about the Yankees getting lucky with players who are never as good after they leave...is what a lot of folks say about the Patriots where peolple credit Belichick, the system and the Patriot Way, i.e a winning attitude.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:30:43 GMT -5
Yankees farm = Journeymen Our farm = top 3 in the sport The record of our farm doesn't explain Sandoval and Hanley being two of the worst ten players in baseball this year. I don't deny that and point out the Sox farm superior ranking, but you haven't addressed the issues raised. Hanley is an exemplar of one of the problems, Sandoval has proven himself in the post-season repeatedly but just not now - is it a need to adjust or lack of a winning environment perhaps he needs to excel. Yes they are pros, but they are also human beings, more is going on than can be captured on paper.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 26, 2015 10:16:41 GMT -5
The Red Sox have one of the top rated farm systems in all of baseball and have for the past few years, the MFY have a system that is rated mediocre at best. But take a look at the records this year: Sox Farms Teams MFY Farm Teams AAA 41-60 55-47 AA 38-63 54-46 A+ 51-49 48-51 A 50-49 45-54 SS 17-18 Staten Is 19-15 n/a Pulaski 18-14 GCL 19-8 GCL-1 8-15 n/a GCL-2 12-14 DSL-1 16-32 33-15 DSL-2 34-14 28-20 TOTALS 266-293 .476 320-291 .524 In addition, season after season (recently) we hear about the demise of the MFY and the ascension of the Sox at the MLB level and yet for the past several seasons the Sox have under performed expectations (2013 being the very notable exception) while NY has outperformed them. While I certainly appreciate, and there is no disputing, the value of analytics particularly over the course of the long grind of the MLB season there is something else that is not being captured by statistics the MFY seem to have it and instill it, the Sox in recent years (post 2007) maybe not so much.
We see the Sox have problems with fundamentals like baserunning and remembering how many outs, things that should be extrememly rare on a well drilled and coached team. Some of that is due to the rawness of players like Betts and Swihart (one who moved so quickly through the minors and is learning a new position, one who circumstances forced up prematurely). I also seem to feel a lack of attitude, call it heart (or wa for the Japanese players) but something is lacking. The 20113 team was the exception. But why? New manager and relief from being out from under the crazy guy? More likely to me, the Marathon bombing was an event that brought the players together in a way that we often see people bond over adversity. That along with (or maybe inspriing) career years from Nava and Saltalamacchia, huge bounce back years from Napoli and Victorino, Papi putting the city in his back, Ellsbury playing for a payday(?) and Lester stepping up like almost never before led to a third championship in 10 years.
I know that many (most?) are going to say it's pop psychology and perhaps it is, but baseball has a lot to do with confidence and controlled emotions and focus and these mental habits and winning attitudes just appear to be things that the Sox of the past several seasons have lacked enough of and that the MFY seem to have in abundance,
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 24, 2015 14:07:18 GMT -5
Do the Red Sox create a package for Gray that centers around ERod or Owens plus Margot and Marrero league seeing as they have several promising lefties?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 16, 2015 17:16:32 GMT -5
And if they do have that individual the job isn't getting done. I know they're young and all, I used to teach kids that age, but if they're telling them like once every few days in a team meeting "If you are taking a new supplement just bring it in before you do (maybe even just a phone call/text with the name) or it could cost you 50 games and cite the most recent example paying special attention to the workout warriors. Sorry but yeah I think they don't in 2015 M.E.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 16, 2015 16:26:21 GMT -5
I don't understand why the Sox don't have a policy for their players at all levels that is basically "No supplements until approved by a team official whose job is to be aware of what can and cannot be taken. Given the investment that the team is making in these guys it seem like a simple and cost effective way to prevent this type of thing rather than relying on a kid to know or having to find out on his own especially when it comes to OTC stuff.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jun 22, 2015 13:35:20 GMT -5
Way back when I first visited a friend in Miami in the late 70s we went to jai-alai, bet $8 on a trifrecta box picking 3 pretty random numbers. It turned out that one of the players was a real low ranked longshot and suddenedly he was up to serve and if he won his point that trifecta, which was part of our box, was going to pay close to $1,000
The crowd was excited and rowdy in anticipation and then the longshot served a fault, not even close, and put himself out of contention.
My friend turned to me and said, "that's what happens when the horses can read the tote board." Never went back.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 5, 2015 20:56:16 GMT -5
So far looks like $135mm well saved by the Sox.
On a more serious note, Lester's problems with base runners and the Cardinals' exploitation of it could be the harbinger of disaster for the Cubbies.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 25, 2014 17:44:01 GMT -5
there is no way that Bogaerts is going anywhere for any realistic pitching target is a trade. The team would be better off waiting to see how the AAA guys mature than doing that and there is no way that BC doesn't know that and Henry too for that matter. Same holds true for Betts and probably Swihart.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 5, 2014 21:07:28 GMT -5
I would be concerned about Shields. He has a lot of innings, has shown a tendency to give up the long ball and he's pitching deep into the post season which often has consequences negative for the following year Lester's recent example aside.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 3, 2014 21:25:38 GMT -5
Mookie may not be Carl Furillo but he certainly has a better arm than many who have roamed CF for the Sox including Ellsbury and Damon. In fact while there have been a number of comparisons of Mookie to illustrious ballplayers including Ben Zobrist, Joe Morgan and Tim Raines (always with the usual caveats) the one best comp for be is Rickey Henderson. And yes I know all about comps to HOFers and of course no one is going to approach Rickey's base stealing numbers. But overall it is not the most outlandish projection for Mookie if his trajectory of development continues for just another year or so. I think we'd all settle for fewer SB and a better arm and maybe 90% plus of Rickey's production
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 9, 2014 17:35:14 GMT -5
One possibility that hasn't been mentioned is that given his athleticism and emerging bat Swihart could also learn 3rd base. He has the arm, the quickness and gamer attitude. He could play 110 games at 3rd when Vazquez is catching and the rest of the time be the backup catcher. Holt becomes what he is, the super ute, Mookie eventually takes over RF with JBJ in center.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 13, 2014 17:15:02 GMT -5
jmei Thanks for the links, interesting read re pitchers hitting. I guess my problem with the DH "penalty" is that it clearly doesn't work when Big Papi is being devalued so much when his value to the team is clear for all to see. Perhaps it's with the idea that there is negative positional value. Seems to me that Dh should be zero for obvious reasons and that other positions should start with with zero value based on replacement player, hit their par level based on mlb average and then gain premium as players approach true gold glove caliber. We would then see guys like Bradley and Pedroia gain value for their D and get a truer idea of the worth of guys like Nava. It also should be noted that in Ortiz' case he's actually not a bad first baseman but is more valuable as a DH where he doesn't get worn down.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 13, 2014 11:52:57 GMT -5
How will we identify you? I will be there with a high powered squirt gun and will need a clean shot, also have some old tomatoes and cream pies. They'll be the guys with the pocket protectors.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 13, 2014 9:24:50 GMT -5
So if the analysis of Ortiz's WAR is accurate then it seems to follow that the Sox should dump him and just rotate their position players through the DH spot since none of the them would suffer much of the positional penalty as each would spend only a little time there (and yes the sum would be the same as now) Easy to do with Holt, Nava and Betts being so versatile. Anyone think that's a good idea? Positional adjustments are levied on a per-plate-appearance basis, so this would make no sense. Again, I'm not saying Bradley is a better player than Ortiz or that Ortiz is a bad player. Don't focus on the Ortiz part of this (I already regret pointing out what I thought was just a weird quirk). Instead, note that even with his terrible offensive start to the season, Bradley projects to be an above-average starter. That's how good his defense has been. If he's even a league-average hitter, he's one of the better center fielders in the league. I agree that Bradley is a valuable player (having been an outfielder whose glove was more advanced than his bat I certainly can relate). My point was more in defense of ericmvan's interpretation that the DH positional adjustment seems to skew too negatively. By rotating the DH you would lose the same amount of value to the team total but spread across many players none would be so obviously impacted. What happens if the pitcher bats as in the NL, is there an equally negative positional adjustment? Just seems to me make little sense, but I'm (obviously) not a statistician even though I do appreciate the value of statistical analysis.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 13, 2014 8:10:49 GMT -5
So if the analysis of Ortiz's WAR is accurate then it seems to follow that the Sox should dump him and just rotate their position players through the DH spot since none of the them would suffer much of the positional penalty as each would spend only a little time there (and yes the sum would be the same as now) Easy to do with Holt, Nava and Betts being so versatile. Anyone think that's a good idea?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 11, 2014 12:02:12 GMT -5
After reading that article it seems like if Vazquez does develop into that absolute topflight catcher (meaning his hitting continues to improve since his defense seems already there) it raises the question about what to do with Swihart. As an out of the box solution how about keeping both and also giving them time at 3B/LF. That way there is the potential to have to first rate catchers available instead of a typical backup and while you lose some SABRE value when Vazquez especially is in the field (at least in terms of power for the position) you may gain more in roster flexibility. Otherwise you either have to trade one of them or force a permanent change. Another plus is that you could split the catching duties fairly evenly which could keep them from wearing down. I know that Swihart still has more to prove (as does Vazquez to a lesser extent defensively) but it seems worth thinking about know.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jun 4, 2014 22:36:42 GMT -5
Just end umpires behind the plate next contract with these fools. Chip in the ball, scanner in the plate and same zones for everbody every game every where. You can do it America! Would be great but how do you account for the height difference between say Pedey and Papi?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 24, 2014 13:09:25 GMT -5
It should also be noted that Pedro pitched not only against steroid enhanced batters but also had the lowered mound and for a number of years faced a DH and not a pitcher. All that makes his performance even more spectacular.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 22, 2014 20:59:43 GMT -5
After going 0-0 with 4 walks, Mookie triples in the bottom of the ninth driving in 2 runs as the Dogs win 6-5. Ho-hum another day at the office.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 30, 2014 17:44:52 GMT -5
And he's already 1 for 1 (single) with a run scored (Marrero double).
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