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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 25, 2016 21:47:49 GMT -5
So have the Sox found their LHH (and RHH when needed)LF option at the cost of..........nothing?!
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 22, 2016 14:31:44 GMT -5
Well MVPapi has a real shot at the projected homers and doubles!! (taking the under on the 4 triples though )
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 21, 2016 15:35:26 GMT -5
Wonder when the last time a batter was IBB in the second inning of a scoreless game with 2 outs and one on?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 20, 2016 17:05:44 GMT -5
So there is absolutely no excuse to not pinch hit for catchers while Swihart is up. And why isn't anyone complaining about Buchholz yet? He's taking his time delivering that first pitch!!!
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 23, 2016 18:11:54 GMT -5
Elias retires Evan Gattis on one of the worst called strikes I've ever seen. Or the best pitch framing evah!! (Sorry, too good to pass up)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 3, 2016 7:15:20 GMT -5
So the kind of condidtions that turns Breslow into an ace?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 4, 2016 20:36:36 GMT -5
And a year from now they will STILL be the youngest group by.1 year.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 28, 2016 17:02:49 GMT -5
Seldom discussed here is the possibility that Hanley could be an above average defensive 1B. He must have the hands and the diving for ball moves down and only has to adapt to a different angle. Range is way less important at first and he certainly has a more than adequate arm for the position. He could be as good as Napoli and maybe better in some ways if he takes to the change and works at little at. It's a lot more natural shift for him than LF in Fenway was.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 29, 2015 9:18:02 GMT -5
Chapman.Chapman, Chapman. I'm just waiting for the wake up call when he tries to sneak his inside heat past Mookie!
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 18, 2015 13:35:44 GMT -5
chris hatfield "... saidI've yet to see any evidence that Dombrowski thought the Red Sox HAD to acquire a Kimbrel-level relief pitcher...."
I think that the fact that he "paid" so much so early for Kimbrel makes it self evident that Dombrowski felt he HAD to have a reliever of that caliber.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 18, 2015 10:16:07 GMT -5
Was just going to make the point that the fact that the Sox have so many young players at the ML level has "weakened" the farm but also gives them time to restock and hopefully not be too concerned with the gap which is only a couple of years.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 8, 2015 20:59:52 GMT -5
Oughta mute the complaints about the price for Kimbrel
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 8, 2015 19:17:27 GMT -5
Must be adding ST innings Plus rehab.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 2, 2015 14:25:11 GMT -5
Or maybe what the Sox did was sign Price to a 3 year $90mm contract and grant him a put for 4 years at $127mm. And if not exercised the team has almost $32mm a year to use to get on with their business.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 1, 2015 20:48:02 GMT -5
Another thought is that if for some reason Price is performing well but just isn't happy in Boston he is tradeable in the 2nd year or third as a short term solution to someone with a pick attached which is more attractive to w wider number of teams than than a 5 or 6 year ironclad commitment.
I'm not saying that the option isn't more valuable to the player, but it isn't a 100% one-sided situation except at the extremes of a) he's a horse for all 7 years and we're sorry we didn't re-up or b) he sucks and we're stuck with him. If/when he decides to exercise the option the Sox get value in the ability to reassess their needs and the market at the time along with knowing more about Price than any other team.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 1, 2015 20:20:22 GMT -5
"...the right to re-examine the market rests solely in his [Price's] camp." Not quite, the right of first refusal to re-examine the market rests with Price, once he decides the Sox will have the next move if Price opts out as they can bid or not for his services.
And one thing we've learned about athletes, especially elite ones is that they may slower to recognize their decline than third parties (e.r Willie Mays, Peyton Manning).
ALso I think the option being after year three in ideally placed for a few reasons: 1. as mentioned Kershaw hits the market along with Harper 2. Maturing (hopefully) of ERod and perhaps Owens 3. Entry of Espinoza 4. Safe for injury Price should fare very well for those 3 years with little signs of decline whereas the risk could well begin to increase dramatically after that.
As for the idea that he could be traded a la Hamels if there were no option, yes but recall all the discussion (correct I believe) of how Hamels contract being market value made it uneconomic to pay that PLUS part with premium talent from the farm/MLB roster. That same argument would be there for the Sox to overcome so it's quite possible, even likely, that the "haul" from trading the back end of Price deal would be.....disappointing.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 27, 2015 18:54:59 GMT -5
jmei "I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you have much less of a handle on baseball economics than you think you do."
Perhaps DJ's argument is a little over simplified, but your passive aggressive response adds nothing so kindly illuminate for us, and as a senior moderator we should expect better in response to non-confrontational posts so perhaps an apology to DJ is in order?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 19, 2015 7:18:28 GMT -5
4. I think that with the Sox talents they are going to be a lot of big games over the next several years and while there are a few closers who may do as well as Kimbrel in the daily grind of the season, he's the stud you want when the prize is on the line, no regrets. As for the prospects, no doubt there is good theoretical value there but they are sweeteners, not drivers, for other trades that are vaporware as of today. A Mercedes isn't objectively that much more valuable than a Chevy, but you pay more to get that last bit of quality, especially when the supply is very limited.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 17, 2015 22:51:44 GMT -5
Last year the Sox closers saved 40 of 60 opportunities. If Kimbrel had been with the team and had his average year of 89% save percentage and if he'd had 40 of those iit would have resulted in 35.6 saves. Give the balance of the opportunities to the rest of the pen at their 2 out of 3 rate and there are 13.3 more for a total of 48.9 so 49 saves. At that point the Sox tie the MFY for the wild card edging out the Astros by a game.
What's the worth of that one game with likely no worse than a 45% chance of a minimum of three more games? What is the value on revenues for the extra attendance etc of being in the race? Additionally, WAR may be a good tool for looking at 162 game season but is anyone really going to argue that there is ANY reliever other than Chapman that you want to have for those truly "must win" games at the end (well maybe the 2013 Koji but he may not ever appear again)?
Of course even the immortal Mariano Rivera blew some post-season games, but you all know there was no one else you would rather (or rather not) see in those situations. Having seen every agonizing pitch of Games 6, 1986 version (and certainly DD has his own nightmares from 2013 facing Koji) I want the best beast there is and having him for 3 bites at the apple is worth Guerra (if Margot, Allen and Asuaje is enough to get Chapman for 1 year).
I agree with pokey... here, the trade may a huge overpay in the abstract, but in the specific case of the Sox and their roster it just isn't that bad. I can recall a lot of "concern" about DD's track record of not building decent bullpens, this move goes a long way toward dispelling that. As for all that outside opinion that the Sox got taken, were those the guys that had Boston as the one of, if not the, top team on the AL after last years deals? I mean c'mon, the team got a stud close with a 5 year track record entering his prime and gave up NO ONE who was in the plans of the ML team for the next several years who was not replaceable (Benintendi for Margot being the replacement).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 15, 2015 9:26:37 GMT -5
Last season the Sox saved 40 of 60 save opportunities leaving 20 blown saves. If you posit that everything else holds steady at 2/3 saves (but with a healthy Koji as the backup closer that could well be low) and then posit that Kimbrel gets about 80% of those 60 opportunities and hits his lifetime 88.9% save percentage that leads to 42.7 saves from Kimbrel in 48 games and 8 of 112 for everyone else. The total of 50/51 saves is 10/11 games won that were lost.
And that doesn't in anyway account for the benefit of Taz/Koji in the 7th/8th being able to increase holds as well.
This exercise isn't sophisticated like WAR but in some ways perhaps represents a truer picture of the value of a premier closer, especially to a team with as bad a pen as the 2015 Sox. And if you think those numbers are too aggressive (which they might be) I would point out that MFY had 80% saves in the same 60 opportunities as the Sox for 48 saves, still an 8 game pick up using Miller/Betances.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 3, 2015 9:44:07 GMT -5
Stanton also did that in 123 games which you conveniently ignore. Health is a skill. Actually health is more like a tool than a skill although there is some level of work and preparation that can effect health. But some people are just naturally more resilient or resistant to injury and that fact should not be discounted out of hand.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 3, 2015 9:34:21 GMT -5
IMO, there is a camp "C" losely aligned to Camp "A" which actively advocates trading anyone and everyone, from XB to Pedey, Papi to Mookie, Buch to ERod. Such is life. Of course the problem for the camp "C" group is that 6 months later they want to trade all the players they received in those earlier trades....
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2015 16:27:45 GMT -5
Pos Player HR guesstimate Stretch LF Betts 12-15 20 CF Bradley 15-20 25 SS Bogaerts 8-12 20 (does his power come this year?) DH Papi 25-30 35 1B Hanley/Shaw 15-25 30 2B Peddy 8-12 15 3B Panda/Shaw 10-15 20 RF Castillo 10-15 20 (who knows?) C CV/Swihart 8-12 15
UT Holt 5-8 10 UT ? 5-8 10
Other bench players are incorporated above (Shaw/Swihart or Hannigan)
Looks like there is good distributed power with Papi and Hanley (if he's healthy) being the big boppers and JBJ the next in line then a bunch of solid power that has upside (Betts, Castillo). I think that's enough power that you don't sacrifice any more defense particularly if you primarily turn some doubles into homers and perhaps give up base running and/or OBP to h=get them. Later Benintendi may come up and fall into the 12-20 range, too soon to tell.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 9, 2015 15:53:30 GMT -5
The Zen Balance of the Bat and the Glove
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 7, 2015 18:35:41 GMT -5
I think that Price is taking note of where his best chance for a ring(s) lies over the life of his last contract. He has a front row seat to the Sox youth movement, probably is aware of what CV brings, has already dealt with DD and unless it is most money only (always a strong possibility) his choices boil down to HOU, CHC or BOS. My bet DD puts in a very competitive bid, 40%
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