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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 7, 2024 16:01:00 GMT -5
It could be worse, we could be the Jaguars.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 3, 2024 17:32:53 GMT -5
Hmm, I think you might be looking at an outdated roster? The one up on the Sox site has no free agents. I'm looking at this. www.soxprospects.com/40man.htmAnd you're right. The guys here just haven't updated it. That's just to signal that there are free agents still out there who were on our 40-man roster last year. They technically aren't "on" the 40-man since the counter to the left of their name isn't counting them.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 2, 2024 20:47:07 GMT -5
I ended up doing an exercise to go back into the wayback machine and compare the preseason WAR projections from fangraphs to prior seasons to see how this year's projection compares against past seasons. It's a bit premature to do this, since the offseason isn't over yet, but it at least gives us a good place to start. These are all on an equivalent basis - 1458 innings (162 9-inning games) and 6240 PA (4.28 PA per batter) - but this would have been the fWAR formula that was in effect in that given year (click to enlarge). As it stands right now, we certainly need the pitching help, but fWAR is not liking the position players either. With that said, the three positions where we could upgrade the most though happen to be where our top 3 prospects play, so perhaps help is on the way for late 2024. Teoscar would help quite a bit too (click to enlarge).
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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 2, 2024 18:05:19 GMT -5
I can see Bobby V hasn't changed, still has to blame others.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jan 1, 2024 23:17:46 GMT -5
I think he also has some major upside come playoff time as a relief ace. The Braves at this point aren't building a roster to win the regular season, they are trying to stock up on arms to defeat the Dodgers. And that's where having Sale on the roster could be huge.
I don't have a lot of confidence in him going past 5 IP anymore, so I'm wondering if you let the others in the rotation start in the playoffs and have him in the 3 IP, one time through the order role that can lock teams down every other game.
He still hasn't ever had a good September, so if I were Atlanta I'd try real hard to not overwork him during the season and keep him fresh for the playoffs. That could mean a lot of starts where he only goes 2 times through the order.
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 14, 2023 20:35:31 GMT -5
Its true that the entity that loses the most here might be California, the state misses out on hundreds of millions of dollars potentially. Although, it’s possible he just would have signed elsewhere if he couldn’t do this, and they’d be getting nothing at all. This way they still get cuts of his $2m and the endorsement money he makes there, plus a cut of additional profit the Dodgers make. The state income tax angle is interesting. First, doesn't the location of the games dictate where state income tax is paid? In other words, doesn't California normally get revenue on a little over half of Dodger's player salaries? Second, on the deferred compensation portion, do any states have procedures in place to capture that revenue? The amount of deferred compensation is unusual, but the concept isn't new. Yes, the taxable income in a given year gets allocated based on where the players play. But his taxable income would only include 2M of the 70M "earned" that year. There's a rule (might be state-by-state, and likely way more nuanced) that if you deferred the compensation by 10 years or more, you get taxed in the state in which you reside rather than the state in which you earned the income. turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/tax-payments/strategies-for-managing-your-tax-bill-on-deferred-compensation/L83l5ousH
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 14, 2023 20:24:03 GMT -5
What would "opting out" mean after, say, year four of this deal? He'll have banked $8 million and would be leaving $692 million on the table? Or he would still receive 4/10ths of the deferred cash? The deferred money is guaranteed once it has been earned. The funds are verified 4x a year before being dispersed. To add, his 2024 earnings is 2M in 2024 and 68M in 2034. So if he were to opt out after 2024 he would be leaving 630M on the table rather than 698M, but would need to wait until 2034 to get the 68M. Same thing for 2025, 2M in 2025 and 68M in 2035, and so on.
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 11, 2023 19:40:56 GMT -5
This should be accounted for very similarly to how a pension would be accounted for.
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 11, 2023 18:46:32 GMT -5
Oh shoot, I see it now, buried in the middle of the table. So take 24M off of that and they are at 218M off of a threshold of 237M. Spotracs has placeholders in for arb awards too. ADD: which they just updated, confirming the 218M.
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 11, 2023 18:36:18 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 11, 2023 18:26:11 GMT -5
I see a lot of comments on twitter and here that this isn't legal, is a loophole, etc. What precisely is wrong with this?
The issue is that it's being called a 10-700 contract rather than a 10-460 contract in the media. His true value compared to Judge is 46M vs. 40M AAV. Much like Mookie is a 25M-per-year contract rather than 30M.
Just think of it this way, when Bobby Bonilla day ends it will be replaced with Shohei Ohtani day. I'm really curious if this gets him out of paying CA state income tax on the 680M (i.e. he'll be living in Japan when he makes that income).
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 10, 2023 11:06:36 GMT -5
As OP said, unless I’m missing something, this is a way to manipulate headlines rather than AAV. If the real money value of the deferred 5Y/$105 mil deal is $91.59 mil with an $18.318 AAV, how is that different to the player than a simple 5Y/$91.59 mil deal with an $18.318 AAV? The only two areas where there’s potential benefit to the player, as far as I can see, are a) perception (gets to look like he got a bigger deal, which may be important), and b) personal preference (if he would rather have deferred money for some reason, or if he thinks the stock market and thus rates of return will collapse and there’s an arbitrage opportunity, which seems unlikely). As for as why it would benefit the player: Currently the 10 year Treasury Bill (risk free rate) is ~4.25%. If the discount rate for AAV formula is 5%, you’re getting 75 bps better risk free return than the general public can get. Obviously this is assuming in negotiations the team only cares about the luxury tax impact & not real $ (which I have a feeling is the case for the Dodgers). If you want to really get into it you could argue whether a guaranteed salary from an MLB team is really “risk free” in comparison to the US government, but I think that’s besides the point . The comparison to the T-Bill doesn't really matter in this situation. 5% is an arbitrary number used for calculating the LT amount. The player and his agent are going to use a rate that they believe to compare this contract vs. the other offers. I tend to think of deferred comp for this players as a way to guarantee income in their post-playing years. And tax strategy, if Mookie and Shohei move to Florida, Texas, or Tennessee in those deferral years they won't have to pay CA tax on that income (not sure how foreign tax works, but living in Japan should also mean no state income tax). Your last statement is interesting too. The way deferred compensation works in general is that it's only guaranteed if the payee is in business in those future years. That's probably not a huge risk in baseball (but who knows). Let's say you got deferred compensation from WeWork... well that's a different story.
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 26, 2023 23:21:23 GMT -5
Honestly, the defense has played well enough for us to have been a 6-5 or 7-4 team with an average offense. Let's face it, they've had the ball with a chance to win the game the last three games. When allowing 10 or fewer points this year, the Patriots are 1-2. The rest of the NFL is 48-0. Belichick had only lost two such games in his career prior to this season.
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 26, 2023 20:11:28 GMT -5
Honestly, the defense has played well enough for us to have been a 6-5 or 7-4 team with an average offense. Let's face it, they've had the ball with a chance to win the game the last three games.
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 26, 2023 14:09:30 GMT -5
There goes Mac on his back foot again... Deja vu
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 26, 2023 13:41:32 GMT -5
There goes Mac on his back foot again...
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 16, 2023 21:18:57 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 12, 2023 14:12:04 GMT -5
Was that when the Patriots sent everyone and didn't have anyone for the recovery? Idk I missed it lol Would make sense tho That was the play, definitely not a 79 yard punt in the air. Special teams was brutal again today. That play call was boneheaded and made no sense whatsoever. However there was also the missed field goal as well as the kickoff return to midfield right after getting the game to 7-6. You have to point the finger today squarely at the offense and more specifically at Mac, but they probably squeeze this game out if the special teams performed.
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 12, 2023 12:02:51 GMT -5
He's got to stop throwing off his back foot. This interception, last week's inception, last week's underthrow to Rhamondre...
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 8, 2023 20:41:49 GMT -5
I can't figure out the pattern with the years, but I believe #2 is the Marlins (1997) and #1 is the Red Sox (2 thousand something). Can't figure out why Blue Jays (1992) and Astros (2017) don't count either.
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Post by foreverred9 on Nov 2, 2023 19:00:18 GMT -5
Isn't the problem with the Padres that they stopped getting revenue from Diamond Sports? I'd be stunned if their finance department at the beginning of the year wasn't prepared to have adequate cash flows cover their payroll, so I think what must be causing this is that with Diamond giving up their rights that the MLB cash flows aren't as much as what they would have gotten from Diamond. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37762861/diamond-sports-group-fails-pay-padres-loses-broadcast-rights
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 30, 2023 20:20:58 GMT -5
Thanks. It looks like I was thinking about the NCAA rule and not the NFL rule, at least according to wiki: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineligible_receiver_downfieldYou would think after 20 years of watching the hundreds of screens from the Patriots offense that I would have caught that by now!
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 29, 2023 14:19:30 GMT -5
Can someone help me out, as this is the second time in two weeks I think the announcers don't understand the rules for ineligible receiver downfield. But now I question if it's me.
I thought if the ball was thrown to someone who is still behind the line of scrimmage (i.e. a screen pass), then a lineman can go down field before the ball is thrown.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 27, 2023 11:42:31 GMT -5
They still got a point, and it happened to a team out west so it won't hurt them in playoff seedings. If they respond well to it, then it'll be water under the bridge.
If they slump coming off it, that will be a problem.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 24, 2023 20:57:22 GMT -5
Somewhere out there is a DBacksProspects message board that's getting giddy over seeing Corbin Carroll step up in a big game.
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