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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2023 15:13:31 GMT -5
I think the point beasleyrockah is making is that a fifth starter who will give you 5 innings/2-3 runs every fifth day is probably better than a fifth starter who will give you 6 innings/3-4 runs every fifth day. The team needs more innings from the rotation, but it needs them much more desperately from the 1-3 slots. I agree here - I'm fine if the #5 starter gets you 5 innings and then gets pulled. I'm thinking more about the top of the rotation (Sale at 5.1 IP for example). What I'm really thinking about is how you value, i.e. pay, the 5 inning starter. I made a point a few days ago that WAR is likely progressive, WAR 1 and 2 might only be worth 2 or 3M but WAR 5 and 6 might be worth 15M. I think that theory comes into play here too. A pitcher generating 2 WAR per year but only going 5 innings regularly doesn't feel like he's worth 16M on the open market. I could be wrong, but the reason I'm thinking that is because it seems like 2 WAR pitchers are more plentiful and can be filled by players in their arb and pre-arb years (like Kutter, for example). I'd rather pay 1 4-WAR pitcher than 2 2-WAR pitchers at the free agency price, but I'd appreciate hearing other's thoughts on this. I will say though, with the trend going towards 5 inning starters, teams need to continue to build up those 2-3 inning bulk relievers. The burnout of the bullpen is a huge risk in the modern game.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2023 12:24:36 GMT -5
That's always been the #1 stat I look at when evaluating pitchers, percentage of starts with outs recorded in the sixth inning. This to me is the missing piece right now in evaluating pitchers. It's a whole lot easier to put up good WAR numbers if you get pulled after 5, or 2 times through the rotation. But if you can get into the 3rd time through the order, that's one less reliever you need in a game, one less reliever getting burnt out midway through the season, etc. WAR right now doesn't pick that up.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 28, 2023 22:04:32 GMT -5
I think we now have more posts from after the game than during the game.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 28, 2023 21:54:33 GMT -5
Just for reference to those who didn't see it:
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 27, 2023 20:38:43 GMT -5
I'm feeling very good about Devers rebounding year. Maybe not on the defensive front, but he was one of the best batters in baseball again this year in the Statcast metrics. So he was getting great swings all year, and nearly identical to last year, just didn't translate as well into results this year as they did last year. baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/percentile-rankings?type=batter&team=
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 27, 2023 19:33:39 GMT -5
Rafaela struggling recently, in particularly over the past week. That should give him something to think about for working on as he heads into the offseason.
If anything, I'm glad that we've been able to get him a lot of MLB at bats this month. Certainly want to see him succeed, let's hope he grows in a similar way that Duran has grown over the past few offseasons.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 27, 2023 19:31:04 GMT -5
The Red Sox so need this season to be over. Watching the last 4-6 weeks has been just as bad as the “fried chicken and beer” Red Sox of the old days. There is much less at stake with this edition, but they really look like they don’t even give a shit. They just get drubbed every night. I was waiting until the end of the game, but if they lose tonight they will have the same record since the Bear Claw game as the Chicken & Beer team had in September 2011. 7-20. I feel like they are playing much worse this year than 2011, but that could be recency bias. Or maybe they were just that atrocious in 2011.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 26, 2023 21:13:54 GMT -5
I don't really see how 19 starts at barely over 5 IP per start with a 4.42 ERA is that far above replacement level. Something just feels off with the WAR calc, but I can't place my finger on it. I dunno, MLB ERA overall is 4.34, so... he was basically average for 100 IP.
But by FIP (which fWAR is based on) he was significantly better than average: 3.71. Considering that he pitched in Fenway and in front of the Red Sox defense, it seems fair to credit him for that FIP. The WAR total seems right to me.
Fair, I was thinking bWAR with my comment. I guess it leads to a different question - do we really want to pay that much for league-average pitching? With a good development system, we should be able to (and have proven) that we can bring people up to provide league-average pitching for league minimum. Said differently, is the cost-per-WAR truly uniform or is it progressive? The first WAR a player provide might only be worth 2-3M but the difference between a 4 WAR and 5 WAR player might be worth 15M. It just seems like you can get 1-2 WAR players for relatively cheap, i.e. in their min/arb years, so you want to save your spending for the elite players.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 26, 2023 20:47:54 GMT -5
On top of which... Sale has been decent this year? The contract has been a disaster overall, but as far as this season goes 2.1 WAR (both b and f) for a $26 million AAV is hardly what sunk this team. I don't really see how 19 starts at barely over 5 IP per start with a 4.42 ERA is that far above replacement level. Something just feels off with the WAR calc, but I can't place my finger on it. ADD: bWAR is actually a bit lower, at 1.4. fWAR being FIP driven isn't too surprising a 2, K% and BB% are good, HR% not as much. But I still question bWAR being over 1 with those numbers.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 24, 2023 16:50:40 GMT -5
In a three-way tie for worse team in baseball since the Bear Claw game with the Angels and Rockies, with the White Sox and Nationals one game ahead.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 24, 2023 16:26:04 GMT -5
Meanwhile, though it appears the Sox affiliates haven't made official announcements, the 2024 schedules seem to be up. Thinking only of myself, I am disappointed by how often the WooSox and Sea Dogs have parallel schedules (home at the same time/away at the same time) but grateful that Portland and New Hampshire split the Fourth of July week (in Portland July 1-3, in NH July 4-6) and that there's a series in NH following Labor Day (very timely for late-season promotions if you are driving from MA). Thanks for the heads up, got the site now updated with 2024. As someone who likes to be in the Carolina's in May, it's shaping up nicely for a Sox fan to see both teams. The last week in May has Greenville in Lynchburg when Salem is home, a 1 hour drive apart. There's a nice window in South Carolina from May 7th to 19th where Greenville is home and Salem is in Columbia and Augusta. The first week in May is a good one for those who would like to do some outdoors activity. Fly into Roanoke, see a game or two in Salem, spend some time on the Blue Ridge Parkway, and wrap it up with a game or two for Greenville in Asheville. The fourth week is good too, Salem and Greensboro are separated by a 2 hour drive. Mid-Atlantic fans have games in Wilmington and Delmarva in April. Hartford fans get the Sea Dogs for two series this year after only getting them once this year. NYC fans do not get Greenville this year.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 22, 2023 18:23:12 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 21, 2023 19:09:32 GMT -5
The argument for trading Verdugo should only hinge on if you think you can use him (either alone or as part of a package) to upgrade the pitching staff. Anything else doesn't make sense to me, per the points above.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 20, 2023 22:23:30 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, who were the top posters in year 1 ? 1. Keith Carl 2. Keith Carl 3. Keith Carl Scaffolds and BrainToast at 4 and 5?
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 20, 2023 17:12:38 GMT -5
I am amazed at the pretzels some of you twist yourselves into to deny reality. Me saying the team success plummeted two years in a row after the trade deadline is what happened. I said nothing about cause and effect, or made any comparison other teams. The records are the records. I still think it's important to clarify that the plummeting didn't start until the Bear Claw game. 13-12 post-deadline and pre-Bear Claw, 6-16 since. Only the LA Angels are worse.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 19, 2023 20:56:28 GMT -5
Crazy finish, Cepeda had to get the last out twice. The first time he and the catcher let a massive pop up drop in. Then he threw high pitch followed by a wild pitch and seemed to be unraveling, but Bob Kipper came out and he then threw 3 strikes to end the game.
Congrats to the Drive, dominated the playoffs even after losing Anthony and Teel. And congrats to old friend Iggy Suarez, who started his career in the system 20 years ago (but didn't make that inaugural SP top prospects list!).
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 19, 2023 20:19:23 GMT -5
Campbell with a 3-run HR to make it 7-2. 6 outs to go.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 17, 2023 10:25:18 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo. Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter. Nitpicking a little bit here but I would think Duran returns more in a trade than Verdugo True, I should have said something more like "trade candidate" as I had made the assumption that the team wouldn't be willing to forgo the additional 4 years of control with Duran as they need to build up their collection of cheap talent.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 17, 2023 9:59:22 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo.
Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 12, 2023 22:13:37 GMT -5
Since the Bear Claw game, they are the 3rd worst team in baseball. Only KC and Colorado are worse, and the Angels will be tied with us after tonight's game. www.soxprospects.com/stats/standings.php?league=103&year=2023&first=0821&last=1231What's really unfortunate is that Seattle is crashing (3-8 in September but winning big tonight) and Texas is 8-12 since the Bear Claw game. Had we instead went 14-7 rather than 7-14 we'd have been tied for the last wildcard spot. Even 11-10 would have kept us in the mix.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 10, 2023 15:47:21 GMT -5
Old friend payamps on to try to close out an 11 inning no hitter Add: nevermind At least they tied it up with a hit. Man on third with 1 out had me thinking sac fly. Makes me wonder what defines a perfect game in extras with the zombie runner. 3 up 3 down still should count, right? Is it possible then to have a perfect game and a run scores (ground out, sac fly?)? Is it possible then to have a perfect game and lose?
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 4, 2023 12:13:25 GMT -5
Might want to think about Devers although maybe he was only 18 and then 19 in Pawtucket (AAA) Devers was 20 when he got to AA.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 4, 2023 11:00:48 GMT -5
I think of the end of the year promos in part as a reward for the players who excelled by giving them a cup of coffee at the higher level before heading into the offseason. Hopefully give them something to think about too for offseason development.
AA is playing an extra week compared to A-ball (although Greenville would've been in the playoffs) so that might be a factor in general going forward. Same can be said about AAA playing an extra week vs. AA.
Regardless - to me this is a sign that we can pencil him (and Teel) into the AA starting roster for 2024, which keeps him on the fast track through the system.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 4, 2023 5:52:16 GMT -5
Without the contract in front of us, it's speculation, but my guess is that the language says that the Sox agree to buy him out of the contract if he declines the option. It was done for luxury tax accounting, per above.
Here's the tweet from Rosenthal that supports the comments above:
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 2, 2023 18:20:30 GMT -5
Casas!
He's now up to 0.265 on the year for batting average, hard to imagine he'd recover this much after being at 0.128 on May 1st and 0.197 on June 12th.
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