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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 24, 2023 18:10:25 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 24, 2023 18:01:36 GMT -5
What are the circumstances surrounding this photo? Was it some sort of 2004/2007/2013 Red Sox World Championship mishmash get together or were they getting together in anticipation of something Tim Wakefield rememberance related? Like how does Jarrod Saltalamacchia wind up in the same photo as Nomar given that these two never even came close to playing together? I saw a comment or two on twitter that it was a Tim Wakefield remembrance that got them together. Always bittersweet that it takes a funeral to get groups back together again.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 23, 2023 23:21:58 GMT -5
For those wondering:
Nomar, Damon, Mirabelli, Lowe, Lowell, Ellsubry, Youk, Timlin, Pedroia, Varitek, Nixon, Saltalamacchia
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 23, 2023 21:36:48 GMT -5
Did Tek come straight from his interview with the Giants?
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 16, 2023 18:51:57 GMT -5
I feel like this is relevant for the conversation earlier:
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 16, 2023 18:48:28 GMT -5
The hierarchy is something like this at the VP level and above. Titles are per the Red Sox website so this is public info. PBOps/CBO and then GM would be above these positions. Executive VP/Assistant GM: Ferreira, Romero Executive VP, Baseball Ops: BOH Senior VP/Assistant GM: Groopman Senior VP, Baseball Ops: Crockett Vice President, Amateur Scouting & Player Development: Toboni Vice President, Scouting Development & Integration: Quattlebaum Vice President, Scouting: Rikard Below that you get to the director level and people like Pearson, Abraham, etc Any idea how the org structure work? Ferreira/Romero/Groopman report into the GM and their focus is narrow in scope on the major league (or 40-man) roster construction while BOH/Crockett/Toboni/Quattlebaum/Rikard report into the CBO and cover the rest of the front office activity? So analytics and scouting go into the CBO.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 13, 2023 18:20:22 GMT -5
100% co-sign with the above.
Building off the thought that it's now timing and luck, I have a hunch that baseball is more likely than any other sport to see a mediocre team get hot.
The Mariners were 38-15 in July and August, winning 6 of 7 against the Astros, 4 of 7 against the Twins, 2 of 3 against the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, 2 of 2 against the Rays and Padres, and won 1 and lost 2 in extras against the Orioles. They were 50-59 the rest of the year, but they would have won the series if it was played in July/August.
The Red Sox were 0.002 points away from being the best team in baseball in July.
To avoid randomness devaluing the postseason, you either limit the participants or stack it to make it more punitive to be seeds 3-6.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 10, 2023 19:56:41 GMT -5
I reached out to Joe Murray. - Just the Saints - Includes Zappe snaps - Short was defined as 1-2 yards. So in 12 attempts on 3rd and 1-2, they ran the ball once. I think that's bad even if you include Zappe. I would think even during the glorified scrimmage you'd try different things just for the sake of working on stuff and build a little confidence. 3 points is a lot different than 0. Thanks for checking with the source, but that's still wrong. They only had 14 3rd downs in the game total, there's no way they had 12 3rd downs with 1-2 yards to go. There was the 3rd and 2 I mentioned above, the 3rd and 1 fumble, and a 3rd and 1 with Zappe. The remaining were 3rd and 6, 7, 11, 6, 8, 14, 3, 12, 4, 10, 5. The had 8 plays of any down under 2 yards. 2 punts, 3 passes, 3 runs. And on those 3 runs they got 1 first down, 1 fumble, and 1 turnover on downs.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 20:58:56 GMT -5
I understand your point, but none of those metrics get at the true causal effect. WPA for example (which I like) gives more weight to the guy who hits a grand slam down 3 runs with two outs in the 9th than the guy who hits one down 1 run with 0 outs in the 9th. Both hits are equal in terms of delivering (i.e. what's controllable for the player), yet WPA will differentiate them.
My point is that we now have Statcast, batted ball data, adjusting for the defense, etc. I think they can get more targeted at testing for whether there is truly a causal effect. Much like the old assumption that BABIP didn't vary from one pitcher to the next, I want to question this other age old truth around clutchness. While studies are great, I'd rather they just add a variable to baseball savant that we can all track and come to our own conclusions.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 20:03:12 GMT -5
Ironically my comment was going to be the meat of the lineup was coming up in the 8th and this is where the Phillies can actually use their best relievers instead of Kimbrell. But that failed, Hoffman was the best pitcher on the team for HR/9 too.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 19:59:59 GMT -5
I feel like a luddite, but we'd strayed too far from caring about runs driven in, on both sides. I'd like to see a RBIAA metric, similar to OAA that shows whether certain people drive in runs or prevent runs at a meaningful clip different than average. Even if the data ends up confirming that it's not predictive, I still think we should be capturing it.
Essentially is it a skill to generate worse contact when the game matters? Or is it truly just volatility?
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 18:33:07 GMT -5
The 1 game wild card was fun - punished teams for not winning the division and put them in an "anything can happen" 1-game situation that could end their season. That then typically pushed the ace to game 3 of the LDS, but now with all this rest Wheeler can go twice on normal rest in the LDS.
They'll need to eliminate a division to make that happen, it's rough for a division winner to be in a winner-take-all 1-game series, even if they aren't that good (looking at you Twins). I still think the long-term solution is 4 divisions, winners get the byes and then 4 wild card teams per league.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 11:34:26 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only: Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Kinda turns the “just make the playoffs” argument on its ear. I think it reinforces that argument, unfortunately. There's such little reward for building the best team in baseball, I'm just happy the 2018 Sox bucked that trend.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 11:31:37 GMT -5
How is he defining short? And is this from yesterday or from the past two weeks? I see only 3 times being 3rd and under 5 yards yesterday with Jones in at QB. Once in the first half when the game was in reach (my example below). Then 3 times with Zappe in garbage time which shouldn't count.
What really frustrated me was the first drive of the game. Rhamondre goes 8 yards right away to get us to 2nd and 2 with a great chance to pick up that first down and get a nice 1st and 10 to reset with the end zone no longer at your back.
What did they do? Two Mac Jones passes deep into tight coverage and a 3-and-out. Didn't love the play calls, but it also could have been Mac's decisioning. He didn't even try and look for the check down at 3-5 yards downfield to get the first. So either the play design never had that option, or it was poor decisioning, or both.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 7, 2023 20:32:47 GMT -5
That's just another playoff game for Kershaw - it's so bizarre.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 7, 2023 16:56:40 GMT -5
By time zone, that's: Eastern: 28 Central: 12 Pacific: 17 I assume the point you are trying to make is that players are more willing to go east, but there's just more teams:
Teams by time zone: Eastern: 16 Central: 8 Pacific: 7 So 1.75 players per team in the East, 1.5 in the Central, and 2.4 in the Pacific. The main takeaway is that none of us really know what he's thinking. And the real answer about time zones is inconclusive. The data above would suggest a slight west coast bias, but the difference isn't huge. So I wouldn't be out there saying time zones don't matter, but I also would say they are only a part of the decision - location, playing opportunity, winning, and dollars all likely contribute.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 7, 2023 9:13:41 GMT -5
Distance isn't going to be the issue. LA to Tokyo - 12.5 hour flight, Boston to Tokyo - 14 hour flight.
Living in a community of Japanese, on the other hand, is a real consideration. There are 175K Japanese living in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Boston isn't even in the top 10 cities so it's less than 25K.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 4, 2023 18:29:05 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series.
With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 3, 2023 20:15:14 GMT -5
That attendance for a dang playoff baseball game shows why it's futile to build a new stadium in Tampa. I'm pretty sure I read they're not even building it that much further than the trop. Wish Tampa would just move to a market that cares about baseball. I'm not ready to rule out Tampa being a successful city for a ballpark, but St. Pete clearly just can't draw people in from across the bay. It's unfathomable to think they decided their next ballpark would remain in there (and I think St. Pete is a fantastic city).
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 3, 2023 19:58:12 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2023 15:42:03 GMT -5
Houck is going all Devern Hansack on us today. Last game of the season, against the O's, all that's missing is the rain.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2023 14:12:52 GMT -5
Devastating - what a joy it was to watch and follow him over the years. Many of us tried (and failed) to throw knuckleballs as kids because of him.
I still remember the "who the heck is this" feeling I had each weekend at a kid in 1995 looking at the league leaders in the Globe on Sunday mornings and seeing his name up at the top.
Then there was the tension in 2004 prior to the Ortiz walk off when he kept us alive inning after inning. That sure made up for the 2003 series (when he probably would have got ALCS MVP had they won).
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 1, 2023 12:59:43 GMT -5
The real question is what do the posters of BrewersProspects think about Jrue going to their key competitor. Us too - how do we feel the relative delta between the Celtics and Bucks has changed between this week and last week?
I agree with the sentiment that planning for a healthy Rob was always a big risk.
I also am happy he's not on the Sixers. Gotta love seeing this:
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2023 23:04:49 GMT -5
Former Sox beat writer for the Globe, Chris Snow, passed away from ALS:
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 30, 2023 20:05:44 GMT -5
Ceddanne now at 0.143/0.196/0.190 since the Yankees series.
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